Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ · · 2013-08-14Aegis...
Transcript of Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ · · 2013-08-14Aegis...
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP.
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Fax (212) 582-0386
Aegis Comparative Analysis:Petrobras Vs. International Majors
Select Operating and Financial Comparisons
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 2
AEGIS Energy Advisors Corp.A boutique investment bank providing strategic, merger, acquisition, and divestiture advise to the energy industry
– www.aegisenergy.com
Affiliate: Aegis Muse Associates, LLC– An advisory organization dedicated to the downstream energy business
– a Joint Venture founded in1998 with Muse, Stancil & Co.
• Muse, Stancil & Co.
– A leading international consulting company specializing in the technical and economic assessment of downstream energy-related matters
– www.musestancil.com
– The intersection of insights required to respond to strategic issues In the 21st century
– Strategic financial advisory expertise with few peers
– Operational knowledge rooted in experience
– Commercial credentials and ideas required to deliver creative solutions
Strategic & Financial
Commercial Operational
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 3
PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE
The purpose of this document is compare Petrobras to other large, open capital integrated energy companies in order to gain insights into the company’s financial and operating attributes and its relative market valuation
The financial statements on which the analysis contained herein is based are for the year ended 2002.
Conclusions:
– Petrobras is comparable in physical size and configuration to the integrated major companies but smaller than the three super majors
• distinguishing characteristics– liquids oriented reserve base; much higher oil than natural gas– longer reserve lives; consistent with a reserve base at a comparatively early stage of development– geographically and geopolitically concentrated; an inevitable consequence of the company’s
history as Brazil’s national oil company
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 4
PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE (CONT’D)
Conclusions (cont’d):
– The company’s financial performance lags its peers in revenues and EBITDA but is comparable in Net Income
• lower revenues and EBITDA– lower revenues attributable to proportionately higher intra-company transfers and the resulting
elimination of related revenues in financial consolidation– lower EBITDA consistent with high cost E&P– both revenues and EBITDA reduced by relatively high government take
• lower EBITDA offset by lower depreciation and lower income taxes, resulting in net income comparable to other Integrated Majors
• higher cost, lower profit E&P operations; consistent with heavier crudes and deep water offshore development
• more profitable refining & marketing operations, a result of the Brazilian market being short product and long crude, similar to the California market just as the North Slope production came on stream in the mid ‘70s
– relative refining margins influenced by Real/$US exchange rate– depreciation of the Real versus the dollar from December ’01 to December ’02 reduced Petrobras’
R&M performance when expressed in $US/bbl.
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 5
PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE (CONT’D)
Conclusions (cont’d):– Dissimilar to other privatizing state oil companies
• many fewer employees
– Deeply discounted in the stock market• in part explained by sovereign and currency risk
– Latin America– change of administrations (and senior executive corporate management) following presidential
elections• also due to high sensitivity of E&P results to crude price volatility
– lower valued, heavy crudes– high cost deep water development– high government take
• depreciation of Real versus $US reduces contribution of very sizeable domestic R&M operations
– The stock appears undervalued• valued cheaper than the other privatizing companies• valued cheaper than Repsol, a Latin American analogue
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 6
PETROBRAS COMPARISONSAegis compared Petrobras to other publicly traded integrated oil companies
– Companies were categorized into groupings• Super Major: Global oil companies distinguished by their size• Integrated Major: International integrated oil companies• Privatizing: Integrated oils with continued state participation
– Although Petrobras was grouped with the Privatizing companies, its size and performance is consistent with that of the integrated majors
– Comparisons were made in the following five categories• Absolute Size• Operating Characteristics• Operating Performance• Financial Performance• Stock Market Performance
BP
ExxonMobil
Royal Dutch Shell
Super Major Integrated Major Privatizing
ChevronTexaco
ConocoPhillips
Repsol-YPF
TotalFinaElf
Eni
Petrobras
PetroCanada
PetroChina
Sinopec
Statoil
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 7
CONTENTS
ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONS 8
OPERATING PROFILE 18
OPERATING PERFORMANCE 27
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 39
STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS 49
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS 61
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA 64
– Liquid Reserves, Gas Reserves, Percent Liquid Reserves, Percent Liquid Production, Liquids Reserves Life, Gas Reserves Life, Refinery Integration
– Reserves, Oil and Gas Production, Refining capacity, Employees, Total Assets, Revenues, EBITDA, Net Income
– Turnover, Gross Margin, EBITDA ROCE, EBIT ROCE, Return on Equity, Cash Flow Reinvestment, Book Debt Ratio
– Market Capitalization, Firm Value, Reserve Market Valuation, Dividend Yield, Price to 2003 Est Earnings, Price to 2004 Est Earnings, One Year Shareholder Return, Historical Equity Price Performance
– Total EBITDA per barrel, Segment EBITDA per barrel, Segment ROA, R&M EBITDA/TOTAL EBITDA, Lifting Costs, Reserve Replacement Costs, Reserve Replacement Rate, Employee Profitability
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 8
ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONSPetrobras is comparable in size to the Integrated Major companies in terms of physical assets
– before the ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips mergers, Petrobras was one of the largest Integrated Majors
When measured by revenues, EBITDA, and total assets, Petrobras is smaller than the other major integrated companies
PetrobrasSuperMajors
IntegratedMajors
Petrobrasvs
SuperMajors
Petrobras vs
IntegratedMajors
Reserves (million BOE) 10,534 19,148 8,895 55% 118%Oil and Gas Production (mBOE / day) 1,711 3,906 1,861 44% 92%Refining Capacity (mbpd) 2,021 4,467 2,084 45% 97%Employees (no.) 40,848 107,917 65,398 38% 62%Total Assets ($ billions) $32,018 $154,820 $70,893 21% 45%Revenues ($ billions) $22.6 $179.0 $79.8 13% 28%EBITDA ($ billions) $6.2 $25.3 $10.8 24% 57%Net Income ($ billions) $2.3 $9.1 $2.3 25% 101%
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
Note: Data for full-year, and/or end-of-year, 2002
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 9
ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONSPetrobras is comparable to the integrated majors in terms of reserves, production and refining capacityPetrobras is smaller than the integrated majors in terms of assets, employees, EBITDA and revenues
Reserves Reserves
0%
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RefiningCapacity
Oil & GasProduction
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TotalAssets
NetIncome
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EBITDA0%
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RefiningCapacity
Oil & GasProduction
Revenues
EBITDA
Employees
TotalAssets
NetIncome
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 10
RESERVES
Liquids & Gas Reserves (Million BOE)
21,109
19,039
17,297
11,89110,827
7,810
5,053
17,407
6,888
3,875
1,014
4,112
10,534
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25,000Ex
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Petrobras’ reserves are on par with the integrated majors’ and comparable to Chevron Texaco & TotalFinaElf
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 11
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION
Annual Oil and Gas Production (Thousand Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) / Day)
4,347
3,943
3,428
2,3442,472
1,7111,432
1,042821
299
2,625
1,642
833
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Petrobras’ oil and gas production is at the average of the integrated majors
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 12
REFINING CAPACITY
Thousand Barrels Per Day
5,481
4,387
3,534
2,6602,275
1,234
2,648
2,021 1,986
654313 292
2,166
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Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
With 97.7% of Brazil’s refining capacity, Petrobras has the same refining capacity as the average integrated major
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 13
116 115121
442 419
81
41
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The number of Petrobras employees is significantly below other integrated oil companies of similar size
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
EMPLOYEES
Number of Company Employees (thousands)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 14
TOTAL ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS ($ billions)
$77 $77$69
$58
$45
$159$153 $153
$89
$40$32 $30
$9
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$160
$180
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Based on total assets, Petrobras is somewhat smaller than the average integrated major. Low asset levels may reflect, in part, the decline of the Brazilian real versus the dollar.
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 15
REVENUES
REVENUES (Excluding Excise Taxes) ($ billions)
$179
$108
$81
$179
$179
$38
$92
$6
$30$35$39
$50
$23
$0
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Petrobras’ revenue levels are significantly lower than those of the integrated majors:
• a disproportionately higher amount of inter-segment eliminations; i.e., Petrobras’ E&P operation sells a large amount of equity crude to the company’s R&M operation
• liquids production weighted toward lower valued heavy crudes
• high government take
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 16
EBITDAEBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) ($ Billions)
$27.0
$18.0
$8.0$7.0
$15.0
$10.0
$2.0
$26.0$23.0
$10.0
$6.0
$13.0
$6.0
$0.0
$5.0
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$25.0
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$35.0
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Petrobras’ gross pre-tax cash flow (EBITDA) is also lower than the average integrated major:
• predominately a producer of lower valued heavy crudes from high cost deep water fields
• high lifting costs exacerbated by high government share of production
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 17
NET INCOME
Net Income ($ billions)
$1.0$2.0
$1.0
$7.0$9.0
$11.0
$6.0
$0.4
$1.0
$5.0
$2.0 $2.0
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Petrobras’ net income is equal to the average of the integrated majors:
• below average EBITDA offset by lower depreciation of low historic cost asset base, due also in part to depreciation of the real Vs the dollar
• lower than average income taxes
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 18
OPERATING PROFILEPetrobras reserves are heavily weighted toward liquids
– comparable to the super majors in terms of liquids reserves– comparatively lower gas reserves
Petrobras’ oil and gas reserve life is longer than the majorsPetrobras’ is less integrated downstream; other companies have proportionately more refining capacity relative to liquids production
PetrobrasSuperMajors
IntegratedMajors
Petrobrasvs
SuperMajors
Petrobras vs
IntegratedMajors
Liquid Reserves (mmbbls) 8,955 10,374 5,764 86% 155%Gas Reserves (bcf) 9,473 52,648 18,789 18% 50%Percent Liquid Reserves (%) 85% 54% 65% 157% 131%Percent Liquids Production (%) 87% 57% 67% 151% 130%Liquids Reserve Life (years) 17 13 13 130% 130%Gas Reserve Life (years) 19 14 14 132% 139%Refinery Integration (%) 136% 199% 168% 68% 81%
Super Majors Integrated MajorsPetrobras
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 19
OPERATING PROFILEPetrobras’ reserves and production are heavily weighted toward liquids
LiquidsReserves
LiquidsReserves
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PercentLiquids
Reserves
GasReserves
RefineryIntegration
LiquidsReserve
Life
Gas Reserve
Life
PercentLiquids
Production
0%
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PercentLiquids
Reserves
GasReserves
RefineryIntegration
LiquidsReserve
Life
Gas Reserve
Life
PercentLiquids
Production
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 20
LIQUIDS RESERVES
Liquids Reserves (Million BOE)
11,823
10,133
9,1658,668
7,231
8,955
3,320
1,867
657
5,137
2,019
3,783
10,937
0
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4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
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Petrobras has more crude reserves than the average integrated major and is on par with BP
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 21
GAS RESERVES
Gas Reserves (Billions Cubic Feet)
55,718
48,789
21,57519,335 18,206
38,817
18,629
13,470
9,473
3,329 2,139
53,438
16,040
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The Company’s gas reserves are substantially less than the majors
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 22
PERCENT LIQUIDS RESERVES
Liquids Reserves / (Liquids & Gas Reserves (BOE))
67%
53%56%
53%
40%
66%73%
55%
86%
65%
45%
63%
85%
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Petrobras’ reserve base is heavily biased toward crude
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 23
PERCENT LIQUIDS ProductionLiquids Production / Total Production
57%
72%68%
90%87%
64% 64%60%56%
53%
63%
85%
71%
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The Company’s production is also weight toward liquids
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 24
LIQUIDS RESERVE LIFE
Liquids Reserves / Annual Liquids Production (Years)
1313
17
1213 13 1314
11
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12
14
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Petrobras’ long crude oil reserve life reflects the early development stage of its reserves
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 25
GAS RESERVE LIFE
Gas Reserves / Annual Gas Production (Years)
15 13
16
1213 12
21 21
1919
16
9
49
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Petrobras gas reserve life is also long but of little significance given the comparatively small amount of gas reserves
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 26
REFINERY INTEGRATION
Refining Capacity / Liquids Production
278%
210%
358%
181%
227%
185%167%
120%
39%
71%94%163% 136%
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Petrobras is less downstream integrated than either the majors or super majors
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 27
OPERATING PERFORMANCEPetrobras’ upstream operations are somewhat less profitable than those of the majors
– a relatively high level of heavy oil production– production is primarily off-shore in deepwater; i.e., high lifting costs– the Brazilian government has a relatively high take
Petrobras’ downstream performance is very profitable, although less-so following the liberalization of product markets and the year-to-year depreciation of the real
– comparatively short refining capacity– long crude supply
Employee profitability is consistent with the majors– lower number of employees offset by lower EBITDA
PetrobrasSuperMajors
IntegratedMajors
Petrobrasvs
SuperMajors
Petrobras vs
IntegratedMajors
Total EBITDA / Production ($/BOE) $9.88 $17.77 $15.83 56% 62%E&P EBITDA / Production ($/BOE) $11.98 $12.89 $13.09 93% 92%E&P EBITDA ROA (%) 50% 31% 30% 162% 104%RM&T EBITDA / Capacity ($/bbl) $2.36 $2.69 $1.82 88% 129%R&M EBITDA ROA (%) 17% 9% 7% 184% 237%RM&T EBITDA / Total EBITDA (%) 27% 16% 12% 163% 219%Lifting Costs per Barrel ($ / BOE) $7.85 $4.77 $3.96 61% 50%Reserve Replacement Costs ($/BOE) $1.89 $5.56 $5.37 294% 284%Reserve Replacement Rate (%) 301% 109% 95% 276% 317%Employee Profitability (m$ / employee) $151 $235 $164 64% 92%
Super Majors Integrated MajorsPetrobras
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 28
OPERATING PERFORMANCEWhile Petrobras upstream profitability lags the majors, its downstream performance leads the group and accounts for a disproportionately high percentage of overall cash flow
0%
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E&P EBITDAper BOE
EmployeeProfitability
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Reserve Replacement
Rate
Lifting Costs
R&M EBITDA per bbl
E&P EBITDAper BOE
Total EBITDAper BOE
EmployeeProfitability
Reserve Replacement
Costs
Reserve Replacement
Rate
Lifting Costs
E&P EBITDAROA
R&M EBITDA
ROA
E&P EBITDAROA
R&M EBITDA
ROA
Total EBITDAper BOE
R&M EBITDA % of Total
R&M EBITDA % of Total
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 29
EBITDA PER BARREL
$28.1$26.5
$18.7$18.3 $16.5
$26.4
$21.4
$11.2$10.4
$14.7
$17.4
$9.9
$21.0
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s’ total EBITDA per BOE production is below the integrated and super majors
• comparable production but lower EBITDA
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
Total EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) Annual Production ($/bbl)
Petrobra
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 30
E&P SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
E&P Segment EBITDA / Total Production (BOE) ($/bbl)
$16.0
$9.5
$18.2
$14.4
$12.0
$13.4$13.4 $11.7 $13.4
$11.1$12.5
$12.6
$17.7
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
RD
She
ll
Exx
onM
obil
BP
Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Che
vron
Texa
co
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
ENI
Sta
toil
Pet
roC
anad
a
Pet
roC
hina
Sin
opec
Pet
robr
as
Because of the character ofPetrobras’ reserves, the company’s E&P segment is less profitable than the majors’
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 31
E&P EBITDA ROAE&P Segment EBITDA / Total E&P Assets (%)
45%
17%
50%
38%
26%
32%33%
28%34%
21%
33%
34%
41%
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
RD
She
ll
Exx
onM
obil
BP
Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Che
vron
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co
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Pet
robr
as
Sta
toil
ENI
Sin
opec
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
roC
anad
a
Petrobras’ E&P EBITDA ROA is above the average• low cost basis in assets
Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 32
R&M SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
R&M Segment EBITDA / 95% of Refining Capacity (annualized) ($/bbl)
$3.6 $3.7
$2.3
$1.3
$0.8
$5.5
$4.7
$3.8
$2.4
$1.8
$2.8
$1.9
$3.6
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
RD
She
ll
BP
Exx
onM
obil
Rep
sol
Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Che
vron
Texa
co
Sin
opec
Sta
toil
ENI
Pet
roC
anad
a
Pet
robr
as
Pet
roC
hina
Petrobras’ R&M per barrel profitability is equal to an average major
In 2001, the last year before the lifting of product import restrictions and a significant devlauation of the real, Petrobras’ R&M was one of the most profitable in the world
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 33
R&M EBITDA ROAR&M Segment EBITDA / R&M Total Assets (%)
19%
2%
26%
16%
9%9%
15%
7%
12%
4%
11%11%
17%
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
BP
RD
She
ll
Exx
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obil
Tot
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Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Che
vron
Texa
co
Sin
opec
Pet
robr
as
Pet
roC
anad
a
Sta
toil
ENI
Pet
roC
hina
Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)
Petrobras’ R&M EBITDA ROA is at the average for privatizing companies and well above the majors’
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 34
PERCENTAGE R&M EBITDAR&M Segment EBITDA / Total Corporate EBITDA (percent)
20%15% 14%
19%
11%
6%
80%
27%
21%
9%
15%
5%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
RD
She
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BP
Exx
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sol
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oco
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Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Che
vron
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co
Sin
opec
Pet
robr
as
Pet
roC
anad
a
Pet
roC
hina
ENI
Sta
toil
As a result of its strong performance, Petrobras’downstream segment accounts for a large portion of the company’s total cash flow
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 35
LIFTING COSTS
Production Costs (including royalties) / BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) Annual Production ($/bbl)
$5.2
$3.9
$4.8
$7.9
$6.5
$4.7$4.3
$3.6
$5.2
$4.5
$2.5
$3.2
$4.7
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
BP
Exx
onM
obil
RD
She
ll
Che
vron
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co
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Tot
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naEl
f
Pet
robr
as
Sin
opec
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
roC
anad
a
ENI
Sta
toil
Lifting costs are higher than industry norms due to a concentration of deepwater production and government take
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 36
RESERVE REPLACEMENT COSTS
Total E&P Costs (including acquisitions) / (Revisions + Purchases + Extensions & Discoveries + Improved Recovery) ($/bbl)
$8.6
$5.3 $5.0
$7.8
$6.1
$4.2$4.8
$3.7
$5.6$4.9
$7.9
$1.8$1.9
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
RD
She
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Exxo
nMob
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BP
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Che
vron
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co
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Tota
lFin
aElf
Sino
pec
ENI
Stat
oil
Petro
Chi
na
Petro
bras
Petro
Can
ada
Petrobras’ reserve replacement costs are among the best in the industry in 2002
2001 high replacement cost reflect significant revisions to reserves due to lower crude prices
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 37
RESERVE REPLACEMENT RATE
(Revisions + Extensions & Discoveries + Improved Recovery) / Oil & Gas Production
163%
32%
301%
126%
51%
120%
111%80%
113%101%
122%129%
140%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
BP
Exxo
nMob
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RD
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Tota
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aElf
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Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Petro
bras
Petro
Chi
na ENI
Sino
pec
Petro
Can
ada
Stat
oil
Petrobras’ replacement rate is twice the rate of BP and three times that of an average major
•In large measure a reversal of downward revisions in 2001 resulting from lower oil prices
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 38
EMPLOYEE PROFITABILITY
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Company Employee ($ thousands)
$267
$118
$589
$232
$199
$283
$151$188
$424
$30 $15
$182 $151
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Exxo
nMob
il
RD
She
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BP
Rep
sol
Che
vron
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co
Tota
lFin
aElf
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Stat
oil
Petro
Can
ada
ENI
Petro
bras
Petro
Chi
na
Sino
pec
The Company’s employee profitability is on par with that of the average integrated major
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 39
FINANCIAL COMPARISONSPetrobras’ EBITDA ROCE is on par with the majors
– substantially lower turnover (lower revenues relative to the majors)– substantially higher gross margins (large intracompany transfers and very profitable R&M)
Petrobras’ ROE is substantially greater than its peers– lower depreciation deductions (low historic cost asset base)– lower income taxes
The company is reinvesting a greater portion of its cash flow than the majors (peak development stage for offshore reserves)Petrobras’ leverage is comparable to the average integrated major
PetrobrasSuperMajors
IntegratedMajors
Petrobrasvs
SuperMajors
Petrobras vs
IntegratedMajors
Turnover (%) 0.9x 1.6x 1.5x 55% 61%Gross Margin (%) 27% 14% 13% 193% 202%EBITDA ROCE (%) 25% 23% 20% 107% 123%EBIT ROCE (%) 17% 15% 12% 114% 142%Return on Equity (%) 25% 13% 8% 185% 298%Cash Flow Reinvestment (%) 107% 51% 52% 208% 205%Book Debt Ratio (%) 43% 11% 31% 26% 73%
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 40
FINANCIAL COMPARISONSWhile Petrobras’ ROCE is comparable to the majors, its turnover is substantially lower and its margins are
significantly higher
TurnoverTurnover
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
GrossMargin
EBITDAROCE
Return onEquity
Cash Flow
Reinvestment
BookDebtRatio
EBITROCE
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
GrossMargin
EBITDAROCE
Return onEquity
Cash Flow
Reinvestment
BookDebtRatio
EBITROCE
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 41
TURNOVER
Revenues / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
1.70x1.84x
1.58x 1.50x
1.27x1.25x
1.60x1.67x
0.62x
0.90x0.91x1.08x
1.25x
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
RD
She
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BP
Exxo
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Tota
lFin
aElf
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vron
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co
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Stat
oil
Sino
pec
ENI
Petro
Can
ada
Petro
bras
Petro
Chi
na
Petrobras’ low asset turnover is primarily a result of substantially lower revenues, which result from a large amount of physical integration (i.e.Petrobras refineries run Petrobras crude) and resulting inter-company eliminations
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 42
GROSS MARGIN
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Revenues
15%15%
13%
21%17%
8%11%
29%29% 27%
16%
30%
45%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
RD
She
ll
Exxo
nMob
il
BP
Rep
sol
Tota
lFin
aElf
Che
vron
Texa
co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Petro
Chi
na
Petro
Can
ada
ENI
Stat
oil
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petrobras’ gross margin is relatively high and is primarily due to lower revenues relative to EBITDA as a result of inter-company eliminations
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 43
EBITDA RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
11%
48%
20%
22%28%
29%
17%
26%27%
20%
25%28%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
RD
She
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Exxo
nMob
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BP
Tota
lFin
aElf
Rep
sol
Che
vron
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co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Stat
oil
ENI
Petro
Chi
na
Petro
Can
ada
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petrobras’ EBITDA ROCE is on par with the integrated majors
• lower relative EBITDA offset by low historical cost asset base
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 44
EBIT RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest & Taxes) / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
5.3%
18.9%
11.1%15.0%17.3%
19.4%
8.2%
18.5%
36.4%
18.5%
19.2%
10.7%
16.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
RD
She
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Exxo
nMob
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BP
Tota
lFin
aElf
Rep
sol
Che
vron
Texa
co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Stat
oil
ENI
Petro
Chi
na
Petro
Can
ada
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petrobras’ EBIT ROCE exceeds that of the integrated majors due to lower depreciation
• lower depreciation due to low asset basis
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 45
RETURN ON EQUITY
Net Income / Book Value of Equity
15%
10%10%
16%
1%
19%
4%
10%
30%
17%
15%
18%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
RD
She
ll
Exxo
nMob
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BP
Tota
lFin
aElf
Rep
sol
Che
vron
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co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Stat
oil
Petro
bras EN
I
Petro
Can
ada
Petro
Chi
na
Sino
pec
Petrobras’ ROE is superior to the majors
• lower book equity and depreciation due to currency depreciation
• relatively lower corporate income tax rates
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 46
EBITDA COMPONENTSAs a result of relatively low depreciation and income taxes, Petrobras’ net income relative to EBITDA is the highest among the comparable companies.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Exxo
nMob
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BP
Tota
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Che
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co ENI
Petro
Chi
na
Con
oco
Philli
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Stat
oil
Rep
sol
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petro
Can
ada
TaxesInterestDD&ANet Income
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 47
CASH FLOW REINVESTMENT
Capital Expenditures / EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation)
0.53x 0.50x
0.76x
0.67x
0.41x0.34x
1.38x
1.07x
0.81x
0.51x
0.26x
0.51x
0.67x
0.0x
0.2x
0.4x
0.6x
0.8x
1.0x
1.2x
1.4x
BP
RD
She
ll
Exxo
nMob
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Che
vron
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co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Tota
lFin
aElf
Rep
sol
Petro
Can
ada
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petro
Chi
na ENI
Stat
oil
Petrobras’ reinvestment rate exceeds that of the majors • continued development of reserve base• upgrading refineries to process indigenous heavy crudes
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 48
BOOK DEBT RATIO
LTD / LTD + Book Value of Equity
10%
43%
32%
8%
15%
41%
24%25%
39%
20% 16%20%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
BP
RD
She
ll
Exxo
nMob
il
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Che
vron
Texa
co
Tota
lFin
aElf
Petro
bras
Stat
oil
Petro
Can
ada
ENI
Sino
pec
Petro
Chi
na
Petrobras’ financial leverage is high on a book basis
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 49
STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS
Petrobras suffers on all market value metrics due to the low level of its share price relative to its peers
PetrobrasSuperMajors
IntegratedMajors
Petrobrasvs
SuperMajors
Petrobras vs
IntegratedMajors
Market Capitalization ($ billions) $27 $183 $62 15% 43%Firm Value ($ billions) $34 $192 $74 18% 45%Reserve Market Valuation ($ / BOE) $2.83 $8.70 $6.67 33% 42%Dividend Yield (%) 3.3% 3.6% 3.2% 93% 104%Price to 2002 Est Earnings (%) 4.7x 13.1x 10.1x 36% 47%Price to 2003 Est Earnings (%) 6.4x 15.3x 12.4x 42% 51%One Year Shareholder Return (%) 95% 9% 21% 998% 456%
Note: stock performance metrics are based on closing prices on November 24, 2003
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 50
STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
Price to2002
Earnings
Price to2001
Earnings
DividendYield
ReserveMarket
Valuation
1-YearShareholder
Return
MarketCapitalization
FirmValue
Price to2002
Earnings
Price to2001
Earnings
DividendYield
ReserveMarket
Valuation
1-YearSharehlder
Return
MarketCapitalization
FirmValue
Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors
BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell
ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf
See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 51
MARKET CAPITALIZATION
Shares Outstanding * Price per Share ($ Billions)
$235
$160 $155
$107
$79
$39
$21
$66 $63
$27$11
$22$26
0
50
100
150
200
250
Exx
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BP
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co
Con
oco
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sol
ENI
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
robr
as
Sin
opec
Sta
toil
Pet
roC
anad
a
Petrobras’ equity market capitalization is less than half that of the integrated major average
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 52
FIRM VALUE
Market Capitalization (Shares Outstanding * Price per Share) + Long-term Debt ($ Billions)
$242
$162
$73 $71
$13
$172
$118
$90
$58$31 $27$30$34
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Exx
onM
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BP
RD
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Tot
alFi
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co
Con
oco
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sol
ENI
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
robr
as
Sin
opec
Sta
toil
Pet
roC
anad
a
Petrobras’ low market capitalization is reflected in the company’s relatively low firm value
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 53
RESERVE MARKET VALUATION
$9.96
$8.31$7.65
$9.28
$6.67
$4.87
$3.85
$12.26
$9.09
$6.56
$4.26
$2.88$2.83
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Exx
onM
obil
BP
RD
She
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Tot
alFi
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co
Con
oco
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Rep
sol
Pet
roC
anad
a
ENI
Sta
toil
Sin
opec
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
robr
as
Market Capitalization - Book Value of Equity + E&P Capitalization / Barrel of Oil Equivalent Reserves ($/bbl)
– assumes the difference between market capitalization and book value is attributable to the value of reserves in the ground; i.e., all other assets and liabilities are worth book value
Petrobras’ reserves are highly discounted in the financial markets
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 54
DIVIDEND YIELD
Annual Dividend Per Share / Price Per Share
4.3%
3.0% 3.0%
2.1%
0.7%
4.0%
2.8%
3.9%
4.8%5.7%
4.5% 3.4%4.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
RD
She
ll
BP
Exx
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Con
oco
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ps
Tot
alFi
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f
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sol
Pet
roC
hina
ENI
Sin
opec
Sta
toil
Pet
robr
as
Pet
roC
anad
a
Petrobras has a dividend yield comparable to the majors but below average for a privatizing company
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 55
PRICE TO 2003 EARNINGS ESTIMATES
Price Per Share / Estimated 2003 Earnings Per Share
10x
5x
12x13x
15x
12x11x
9x 8x 9x10x
8x
12x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
Exx
onM
obil
BP
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She
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Tot
alFi
naEl
f
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co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Rep
sol
Sta
toil
ENI
Sin
opec
Pet
roC
anad
a
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
robr
as
Petrobras is trading at an extraordinarily low multiple of estimated ’03 earnings
Either the market is appropriately discounting its reserves as well as its inherent currency and sovereign risk; or the stock is deeply under-valued
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 56
PRICE TO 2004 EARNINGS ESTIMATES
Price Per Share / Estimated 2004 Earnings Per Share
17x
14x15x
12x
10x
13x
11x 11x
6x
15x
13x
12x
14x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
20.0x
Exx
onM
obil
BP
RD
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Che
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Texa
co
Tot
alFi
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f
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Rep
sol
Sta
toil
Pet
roC
anad
a
ENI
Pet
roC
hina
Sin
opec
Pet
robr
as
Petrobras is trading at an extraordinarily low multiple to estimated ’04 earnings
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 57
ONE-YEAR SHAREHOLDER RETURN
One-Year Annual Rate of Return (adjusted for dividends and splits)
18.0%
6.5% 5.7%
41.0%
21.9% 21.6%
13.8%
103.3%100.5%
94.8%
53.0% 50.5%
23.9%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
BP
RD
She
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Exxo
nMob
il
Rep
sol
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Tota
lFin
aElf
Che
vron
Texa
co
Petro
Chi
na
Sino
pec
Petro
bras
Petro
Can
ada
Stat
oil
ENI
Petrobras’ one-year stock performance reflects a significant recovery in 2002 following a significant decline in 2001
Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 58
Historical Equity Price PerformanceSince the listing of its ADR on the NYSE in August 2000, Petrobras’ stock price has fallen and subsequently returned to its original price level
Petrobras Historic Price(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
8/1/
009/
1/00
10/1
/00
11/1
/00
12/1
/00
1/1/
012/
1/01
3/1/
014/
1/01
5/1/
016/
1/01
7/1/
018/
1/01
9/1/
0110
/1/0
111
/1/0
112
/1/0
11/
1/02
2/1/
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1/02
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/02
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/02
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/02
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1/03
9/1/
0310
/1/0
311
/1/0
3
Dol
lars
per
com
mon
shar
e
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 59
Historical Equity Price PerformancePetrobras’ stock price has – overall – kept pace with its peers and outperformed the Amex Oil Index over the same interim
Petrobras Price Perfomance vs. S&P 500 and Oil Indices(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
8/1/
009/
1/00
10/1
/00
11/1
/00
12/1
/00
1/1/
012/
1/01
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016/
1/01
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018/
1/01
9/1/
0110
/1/0
111
/1/0
112
/1/0
11/
1/02
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023/
1/02
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025/
1/02
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027/
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/02
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/02
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/02
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1/03
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034/
1/03
5/1/
036/
1/03
7/1/
038/
1/03
9/1/
0310
/1/0
311
/1/0
3
PBR S&P 500 Oil Idex (Amex)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 60
Historical Equity Price PerformancePetrobras’ relative performance is influenced by the both the price of crude and the $US/Real exchange rate, as a majority of Petrobras’ revenues are denominated in Reais
– Devaluation of Real from 2000 through 2002 resulted in comparatively weaker equity price performance– Subsequent appreciation of the Real has caused Petrobras ADR to outperform its peers over the last
twelve monthsPetrobras Price Perfomance vs. WTI and USD/BRL Exchange Rate
(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
8/1/
009/
1/00
10/1
/00
11/1
/00
12/1
/00
1/1/
012/
1/01
3/1/
014/
1/01
5/1/
016/
1/01
7/1/
018/
1/01
9/1/
0110
/1/0
111
/1/0
112
/1/0
11/
1/02
2/1/
023/
1/02
4/1/
025/
1/02
6/1/
027/
1/02
8/1/
029/
1/02
10/1
/02
11/1
/02
12/1
/02
1/1/
032/
1/03
3/1/
034/
1/03
5/1/
036/
1/03
7/1/
038/
1/03
9/1/
0310
/1/0
311
/1/0
3
PBR USD/BRL WTI
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 61
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
Three overarching factors appear to be impacting Petrobras’ stock performance
1. Governmental Agency Costs
• By Brazilian Law, the federal government must maintain a controlling interest in Petrobras• Historically, Petrobras has been a vehicle for federal macroeconomic and social policies; objectives that may
compete with the goal maximizing shareholder value• In periods of high inflation, the government has set prices for oil and oil products below world market prices
– Current price-control guidelines must be consistent with gradual achievement of price deregulation• Petrobras holds U.S. $3.5 billion in National Treasury Bonds as consideration for the privatization of certain
subsidiaries– The bonds accrue interest and mature from 2007 through 2012– The government may roll those bonds over at maturity
– Typically, successful national-oil privatization programs eventually lead to a relinquishment of governmental control to shareholders
• Markets anticipate the eventual offering of large blocks of government shares • In any case, the Brazilian government intends to maintain regulatory control over Petrobras
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 62
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
2. Continued Oil & Gas Sector Deregulation
• Federal government has initiated an auction process for new exploration areas, and further deregulation in the downstream sector is expected
• Brazil’s antitrust agency may require Petrobras to reduce its ownership of Brazilian refining capacity, currently at 97.7%
• Deregulation may increase competition for and salaries of skilled employees in the Oil and Gas Sector
• Petrobras’ employees are represented by a union, and further attempts at deregulation may result in protest strikes
• Brazilian refined product import tariffs have been reduced from 6% to 0% in 2001, decreasing Petrobras’ competitive price advantage
– Continued deregulation and the movement toward competitive markets will erode Petrobras’competitive advantages in Brazil
• Petrobras has participated in some asset swaps, must notably with Repsol-YPF, to reduce its exposure to the Brazilian markets and increase its international diversification
• The introduction of competitive forces in Brazil afford Petrobras the opportunity for numerous joint ventures in the E&P and downstream sector. Such ventures will allow Petrobras to adopt the best practices of the world’s leading oil companies
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 63
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
3. Brazilian Sovereign Risk
• Brazilian economic and political conditions have a direct impact on Petrobras’ business• Exchange Rates
– 85% of Petrobras’ revenues are denominated in Reais– A substantial portion of the company’s debt is denominated, or indexed to, the U.S. dollar– The Brazilian Central Bank allowed the Real to float versus the U.S. dollar on January 15, 1999– The Real has depreciated 35% versus the U.S. Dollar in 2001
December 31, 2001: R$2.31 = U.S. $1.00December 31, 2002: R$3.54 = U.S. $1.00
– 52% of the company’s total indebtedness consists of floating rate debt an short-term debt
– Previously successful national-oil privatization programs led to aggressive international diversification and growth
• Repsol-YPF; ENI; TotalFinaElf; BP
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 64
Supplemental Slide: SEGMENT EBITDAEBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) ($ Billions)
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
Exxo
nMob
il
RD
She
ll
BP
Tota
lFin
aElf
Che
vron
Texa
co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Rep
sol
ENI
Petro
Chi
na
Stat
oil
Petro
bras
Sino
pec
Petro
Can
ada
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
OtherExploration & ProductionRefining & MarketingRM&T as percent of total
Like most major energy companies, Petrobras’EBITDA is heavily weighted to the E&P sector.However, as a proportion of EBITDA, R&M is high.
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 65
Supplemental Slide: MARKET DEBT RATIO
Long-term Debt / (Long-term Debt + Market Capitalization)
33% 32%
12%
18%
3%7%
4%
9%
13% 10%
9%
15%21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
BP
RD
She
ll
Exx
onM
obil
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Rep
sol
Che
vron
Texa
co
Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Pet
robr
as
Sta
toil
Sin
opec
Pet
roC
anad
a
Pet
roC
hina
ENI
As with its book debt ratio, Petrobras’ is more financially leveraged than the average integrated major on a market equity basis
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 66
Supplemental Slide: FIRM VALUE PER BARREL
Firm Value (Market Capitalization + LTD) / Barrel of Oil Equivalent Reserves ($/BOE)
$8.51
$6.11
$12.86
$7.79
$6.48
$4.05
$9.93
$11.45
$7.41$7.56
$10.89 $10.58
$3.20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Exx
onM
obil
BP
RD
She
ll
Tot
alFi
naEl
f
Che
vron
Texa
co
Con
oco
Philli
ps
Rep
sol
Pet
roC
anad
a
ENI
Sin
opec
Sta
toil
Pet
roC
hina
Pet
robr
as
Firm value related metrics suffer as a result of the company’s low equity market capitalization
Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)
October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 67
APPENDIX
Note on interpreting Spider Diagrams:
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%200%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%200%
• The overlapping irregular polygon represents the individual R&M company’s performance relative to all R&M companies.
• Points lying outside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a higher-than-average measure.
• Points lying inside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a lower-than-average measure.
• The overlapping irregular polygon represents the individual R&M company’s performance relative to all R&M companies.
• Points lying outside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a higher-than-average measure.
• Points lying inside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a lower-than-average measure.
• The underlying equilateral polygon represents the average performance of all R&M companies for which information could be compiled.
• The underlying equilateral polygon represents the average performance of all R&M companies for which information could be compiled.
Please note that for scaling purposes, the axes for the relative comparison of the subject company to the average of the group are limited graphically to the range 0 to 200%. The actual calculated values may be less than 0 or greater than 200%.