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Adventures in the“Last Frontier”:

Hazard Planning Alaskan Style

Rich Chamberlain, GISP

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The Project

– Update the Local Hazard Mitigation PlanAnnex for the Seward Bear CreekFlood Service Area (SBCFSA) nearSeward, Alaska

– Evaluate all natural hazards– Estimate potential damages (Hazus)– Include scenarios for climate change and

land use change– Develop mitigation approaches

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The Team

– Dan Mahalak: Client with SBCFSA– Scott Simmons: PM (Anchorage)– Rich Chamberlain: GIS/Hazus Riverine

(Denver)– Kim Pirri: Hydrology and Hydraulics (Denver)– Jon Philipsborn: Climate Change (Atlanta)– Shane Parson: Hazus UDF, Tsunami, EQ

(Maryland/Virginia)

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Challenges

– Data collection

– Using existing data

– Modeling hazards

– Modeling climate change

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What is Hazus?

Hazards U.S. – Multi HazardEarthquake, flood, andhurricane wind/surge modulesFEMA software developed in conjunctionwith the National Institute of BuildingSciencesOver 200 data layers – all open sourceRuns as an FREE extension to ArcGIS

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Hazus Features

Earthquake Flood Hurricane

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

Let’s go to Seward…

Original Plan…

Field Tour w/ clientKick-off MeetingField Measure HydraulicStructures (bridges,culverts)Building Stock Evaluation(for structure type & 1st

floor elevation)

What really happened…Raining…Field Tour w/ ClientMore Rain… Flooding…Most locals bail on kickoffmeeting to respond tofloodingMore Rain… More Flooding…See flooding and floodresponse in action…Building Stock EvaluationGet the out before the roadis closed…

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Field Data Collection…in the Rain!

Rainfall

SewardAnnual AveragePrecipitation = 69inchesWeek of 9/17-9/21Rainfall Total ~15inchesMonth of SeptemberRainfall Total >30inches* (it’s a record!)

*Source: AlaskaDispatch.com, 9/26/2012

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

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LiDAR-basedModeling:100-YearFloodplains

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Hazus UDF Analysiswith User-Defined Depth Grids

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

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54IPCC emissions scenarios

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USGS Regression Equation withTemp. and Precip. Factors

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

Lowell Creek Flood Control

Built by USACEin 1945Diverts LowellCreek fromhistoric pathEliminatedannual floodingof DowntownSewardNo bridge whenthe waterfallwas built!

USACE 2D model foralluvial fan

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Lowell Creek Waterfall -Tuesday

Lowell Creek - Thursday

Diversion DamTunnel Entrance

Lowell Creek Waterfall

Wednesday

Thursday

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Hazus Questions

1. How do you conduct Hazus field data collectionduring a flood event?

2. What is the best way to model an Alaskan log cabinwith Hazus User-Defined Facilities (UDF)?

3. How do you account for glacial till deposition whendeveloping Hazus user-defined flood depth grids?

4. What process should be used with Hazus to modelclimate change impacts for glacially-fed rivers andstreams?

5. What are the best ways to adapt 2D alluvial fan floodand debris modeling output for use in Hazus?

6. How do you use tsunami model mapping and LIDARdata to conduct Hazus tsunami risk assessments?

2010 Tsunami Study of1964 Good Friday EQ

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Recap

1. Field data collection: Prepare to get wet, usetechnology

2. Hazus UDF: Photos, use existing data fromcommunity

3. Glacial till: LIDAR, LIDAR, LIDAR4. Climate change: Downscaled climate change data,

regression equations with temp and precip factors,run Hazus for range of flows only

5. 2D alluvial fan model: Depth grid (think Plinko)6. Tsunami: Modeling extent and LIDAR to make depth

grid

Seward HighwayMilepost 3.5 Overflow

~18” Deep onThursday

Eventually,ADOT&PF didclose theroad…

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Questions?

Rich ChamberlainRich.chamberlain@urs.com