ABARE CONFERENCE PAPER 99.12 Asia Pacific supply and...

Asia Pacific supply and demand outlookfor forest products

Graham Love, Forestry Economics, ABARE

Second Annual Australian Timber and Forestry ConferenceSydney, 28–29 April 1999

ABARE CONFERENCE PAPER 99.12

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ABARE project 1191

The Asian economic downturn is expected to reduce the export value ofAustralian forest products in 1998-99. However, export value is forecast to risein 1999-2000 as the Asian economies begin to recover. Ninety-five per cent ofAustralian forest product exports are to the Asia Pacific. This region willcontinue to be a vital market for Australia as log availability and exports ofsawnwood, wood based panels, woodchip and roundwood rise in the mediumterm.

Four key questions are examined in this paper:

• What is the global supply and demand outlook for forest products?

• What are the supply and demand prospects for Australian forest products?

• What are the supply and demand prospects for the Asia Pacific region?

• How might developments in the main Asia Pacific markets affect Australia?

Global supply and demand for forest productsThe FAO has recently completed two new global supply and demand studies, the GlobalFibre Supply Model (Bull, Mabee and Scharpenberg 1998) and the Global Forest ProductsOutlook Study (Whiteman 1999). In early 1999 the FAO also released its updated State ofthe World’s Forests (FAO 1999a). In this paper the FAO’s global supply and demandoutlook are discussed from an Australian perspective, with the focus on the regionalprojections for Asia and Oceania.

Global industrial roundwood production rose to a peak of around 1.7 billion cubic metresin 1990 but fell in the early 1990s as production fell in Europe and Russia. The FAO projectsglobal production, around 1.5 billion cubic metres in 1996, will rise by 1.7 per cent a yearto just under 1.9 billion cubic metres in 2010 (FAO 1999b).

Asia is expected to account for 141 million cubic metres (37 per cent), Oceania 13 million(3 per cent), the Americas 81 million (21 per cent) and the rest of the world 147 million(39 per cent) of the projected 382 million increase in production. Oceania is projected toaccount for just under 3 per cent of global industrial roundwood production in 2010, aboutthe same share as in 1996.

Asian production of forest products exceeded industrial roundwood production by 54million cubic metres (in roundwood equivalent) in 1996. This was equivalent to around19 per cent of that region’s industrial roundwood requirements. Roundwood production isprojected to grow strongly to 2010, but the production of forest products is also expectedto grow. Asia is projected to import around 58 million cubic metres of industrial roundwoodin 2010, equivalent to 14 per cent of its industrial roundwood requirements.

For other regions, the FAO projects Europe to become a small net importer of industrialroundwood by 2010, while Africa, Oceania and the Americas are projected to remain netexporting regions (table 1).

In Oceania, production of industrial roundwood exceeded that of forest products by 18million cubic metres (in roundwood equivalent) in 1996. Thus, Oceania exported around44 per cent of its industrial roundwood for further processing in that year. Over the nextdecade, however, Oceania is projected to increase its production of forest productssignificantly, and net exports of industrial roundwood are projected to fall to 15 millioncubic metres (28 per cent of industrial roundwood production) by 2010.

Turning to the balance between forest products production and consumption, the FAOprojects that forest products production in Asia will grow by 2.6 per cent and in Oceaniaby 3.8 per cent — well above projected consumption growth of 2.1 per cent and 3.3 percent. Asia consumed 176 million cubic metres (roundwood equivalent) of forest productsmore than it produced in 1996, and is projected to consume around the same amount in


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excess of production in 2010. The FAO also projects that Asia will remain the only netimporting region for forest products (table 2).

In Oceania, production of forest products exceeded consumption by around 5 million cubicmetres in 1996. The FAO projects that production of forest products will grow more rapidlythan consumption, and that net exports of forest products from the region will rise to 11million cubic metres (that is, by 6 million) by 2010. Significant though this would be forforest product industry and infrastructure development in Australia and New Zealand, itneeds to be kept in perspective alongside projected rises of 11 million cubic metres fromAfrica, and 19 million cubic metres from Europe.

The FAO also projects that Europe, Asia and North America together will account foraround 85 per cent of production and over 90 per cent of consumption in 2010 (roughlythe same as in 1996). However, Asia’s share of consumption is projected to rise relativeto that of North America.

For individual forest products, the FAO projects paper and paperboard production andconsumption will experience the highest rate of growth over the period (2.4 per cent ayear). Reflecting an expected increase in the use of recovered paper in the total fibrefurnish, it projects pulp for paper production and consumption will rise by only 0.5 percent a year. Production and consumption of sawnwood is projected to grow by 1.1 per centa year, and wood based panels by 1.3 per cent a year (FAO 1999b). Reconstituted woodpanels production and consumption are expected to have a higher rate of growth thanplywood (table 3).


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Table 1: World production of industrial roundwood and forest products (roundwoodequivalent)

1996 2010

Round- Round-wood wood

Round- Forest Net surplus/ Round- Forest Net surplus/wood products trade a deficit a wood products trade a deficit a

million million million million million millionm3 m3 m3 % m3 m3 m3 %

Africa 68 61 7 10 84 74 10 12Asia 280 334 –54 –19 421 479 –58 –14Oceania 41 23 18 44 54 39 15 28Europe 370 368 2 – 502 509 –7 –1North America 600 585 15 3 658 639 19 3South America 130 120 10 8 153 131 22 14

World1490 1490 – – 1872 1872 – –

a A negative number indicates imports exceed exports.Source: Calculated from FAO (1999b).

The FAO made its projections before the Asian economic downturn began. However, toanalyse the potential consequences of the downturn for forest product markets, the FAOran a scenario in which lower economic growth was projected in the Republic of Korea,Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. The flow-on effects to other regional countries werealso considered. The FAO concluded that forest products consumption in the region acrossall wood product categories may be roughly 4–5 per cent lower than in the baselineprojection for 2010. It suggested that lower economic growth, compounded by the effectsof competitive devaluation, could reduce regional imports as a share of regionalconsumption. Some countries in the region, however, may increase forest products importsif prices are lower. Another factor that the FAO did not model explicitly but consideredimportant was the impact of the financial crisis on the availability of capital to the region.The FAO suggested that Asian production and consumption could be reduced significantlyfrom the baseline projection under a scenario of scarce capital.


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Table 2: World production and consumption of forest products (roundwood equivalent)

1996 2010

Produc- Consump- Net Surplus/ Produc- Consump- Net Surplus/tion tion trade a deficit a tion tion trade a deficit a

million million million million million millionm3 m3 m3 % m3 m3 m3 %

Africa 61 35 26 43 74 37 37 50Asia 334 510 –176 –53 479 653 –174 –36Oceania 23 18 5 22 39 28 11 28Europe 368 347 21 6 509 469 40 8North America 585 499 86 15 639 589 50 8South America 120 80 40 33 131 97 34 26

World1490 1490 – – 1872 1872 – –

a A negative number indicates imports exceed exports.Source: Calculated from FAO (1999b).

Table 3: World production and consumption of forest products, by product

Production and consumption Total growth Annual growth1996 2010 1996–2010 1996–2010

million m3 million m3 % %

Industrial roundwood 1490 1872 26 1.6Sawnwood 430 501 17 1.1Wood based panels 149 180 20 1.3Pulp 179 192 7 0.5Paper and paperboard

284 394 39 2.4

Source: FAO (1999b).

Australian supply and demand

The forest resourcePlantations are expected to account for most of the future increase in Australian timberproduction. Plantations currently supply just over half of Australian industrial roundwood.By 2040, however, plantations are projected to supply around 70 per cent.

Australia’s forest area is currently 157 million hectares, made up of about 156 millionhectares of native forest and just over one million hectares of plantations (BRS 1998). Ofthe native forest, woodlands make up 112 million hectares, open forest 39 million hectares,and closed forest (rainforest and mangroves) 4.6 million hectares. An estimated 13.3million hectares of native forest are available for timber production: 7.3 million hectaresin state forests, 2.9 million hectares on other crown land and 3.1 million hectares on privateland (Commonwealth of Australia 1997).

The rate of new plantation establishment has risen significantly in the past three years.Australia’s forest plantations now exceed 1.2 million hectares, according to an interimupdate of Australia’s National Plantation Inventory (NPI). The NPI estimates plantationsoftwood area at 30 June 1998 was at least 948 000 hectares and plantation hardwood area287 000 hectares (Wood, Howell and Jones 1999). Plantation area at 31 March 1995 was1.04 million hectares (884 000 hectares of softwood and 159 000 hectares of hardwood),indicating a net addition to the national plantation estate of at least 192 000 hectares overthe three years to 1998 (table 4).

Reflecting higher sawnwood, wood based panels, and export woodchip production,removals rose to an estimated record 22.3 million cubic metres in 1997-98 (12.0 million


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Table 4: Australian area under forest plantation

1995 a 1998 b

Hardwood Softwood Hardwood Softwood

ha ha ha ha

New South Wales 32 636 237 616 46 163 293 203Australian Capital Territory 263 14 596 0 15 202Victoria 19 347 196 029 30 319 179 605Tasmania 62 018 71 972 78 024 71 102Queensland 1 295 168 695 8 414 173 656Northern Territory 0 4 225 501 5 235Western Australia 42 042 88 803 120 110 92 194South Australia 1 038 101 907 3 469 117 486Total 158 640 883 840 287 000 947 683Total (all species) 1 042 480 1 234 683

a At 31 March. b At 30 June.Source: National Plantation Inventory, January 1999.

cubic metres of softwood and 10.3 million cubic metres of hardwood). In 1998-99,however, removals are forecast to fall to around 22.0 million cubic metres.

Removals are projected to rise appreciably in the medium term, based on projectedincreased log availability. Softwood sawlog availability is projected to rise in the nextdecade as the softwood plantations planted in the 1970s and early 1980s reach maturity.Reflecting the current high rate of new hardwood plantation establishment, hardwood pulplog availability is also projected to rise (figure 1).

The National Plantation Inventory (see Australia’s First Approximation Report for theMontreal Process, Commonwealth of Australia 1997) projects total plantation logavailability will rise from an average of 11.3 million cubic metres from 1995-96 to 1999-2000 to an average of 16.5 million cubic metres from 2005-06 to 2009-10. ABARE projectsthat availability from native forests from 2005-06 to 2009-10 will average 10.2 millioncubic metres, giving a total projected availability of 26.7 million cubic metres.

Forest products The two dominant influences on the outlook for Australian forest products in 1998-99 havebeen the apparent peaking of the current housing cycle, and the effect of the Asiandownturn on forest products trade. The main influences in the longer term will includechanges in Australian log availability, domestic population and economic growth, and EastAsian import demand.

Short term outlook for wood productsWorld prices for sawnwood and wood based panels fell in 1998 as the economic downturnin Asia reduced sawnwood demand in key markets, particularly Japan. Asian importdemand for sawnwood is expected to remain relatively weak in 1999. Import demand from


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Australian log availabilityFigure 1:

1995–99 2000–04 2005–09 2010–14

5000

’000 m3

10000

15000

20000

25000

Plantation hardwoodPlantation softwoodNative softwoodNative hardwood

markets such as China and India could rise because of government policies that limit nativetimber removals, but import demand from Japan, the major market, is expected to remainsubdued, limiting the potential for price rises. Low prices are expected to maintain thecompetitiveness of imported timber in the Australian market in 1998-99. However, withover 70 per cent of sawntimber used for residential construction and alterations andadditions to dwellings, the building cycle is also an important influence on Australianconsumption (Neufeld 1997).

New dwelling commencements rose by 15 per cent to 147 300 units in 1997-98, whileapparent consumption of sawnwood and wood based panels rose by 5 per cent and 16 percent to around 4.4 million cubic metres and over 1.5 million cubic metres respectively(table 5). The current housing cycle may have peaked in the September quarter 1998, with


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Table 5: Australian forest products supply and demand

1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 2010Log availabilityAll logs ’000 m3 20 156 22 314 22 000 27 600– softwood ’000 m3 9 720 11 039 10 500 15 000– hardwood ’000 m3 10 436 11 275 11 500 12 600

ProductionSawnwood ’000 m3 3 481 3 649 3 680 4 650– softwood ’000 m3 2 063 2 327 2 305 3 250– hardwood ’000 m3 1 418 1 322 1 375 1 400Wood based panels ’000 m3 1 375 1 553 1 670 2 075Paper and paperboard kt 2 418 2 542 2 650 3 825Pulp a kt 914 936 940 1 575Export woodchips bc kt 6 752 8 749 8 001 9 150– softwood kt 1 909 2 340 2 250 1 875– hardwood kt 4 843 6 409 5 751 7 275Export roundwood c ’000 m3 616 391 650 875

ConsumptionSawnwood ’000 m3 4 186 4 395 4 320 4 260– softwood ’000 m3 2 696 2 987 2 900 2 965– hardwood ’000 m3 1 490 1 408 1 420 1 295Wood based panels ’000 m3 1 326 1 535 1 582 1 495Paper and paperboard kt 3 134 3 262 3 367 4 505Pulp kt 1 114 1 115 1 160 1 765

Net tradeSawnwood ’000 m3 –705 –746 –640 390– softwood ’000 m3 –633 –660 –595 285– hardwood ’000 m3 –72 –86 –45 105Wood based panels ’000 m3 49 18 88 580Paper and paperboard kt –716 –720 –717 –680Pulp kt –200 –179 –220 –190

a Virgin pulp. b Green basis. c Gross exports.Source: ABARE projections.

dwelling commencements reaching 39 700 units. Total dwelling commencements in theDecember quarter fell by 7.8 per cent to 36 607 units (ABS 1999).

The Commonwealth Treasury forecasts a slightly weaker dwelling sector, but suggests thatlow interest rates, higher spending on renovations, and changing social trends may mitigatethe extent of any decline in housing activity in the short term. The Housing IndustryAssociation forecasts that housing activity will stay high over the next 15 months, but willfall in the second half of 2000 (Bills 1999). Based on expectations of moderating but stillrelatively high housing activity, ABARE forecasts that structural wood consumption willremain around 5.9 million cubic metres in 1998-99. Sawnwood production is forecast toremain in the range 3.6–3.7 million cubic metres, while the production of wood basedpanels is forecast to exceed 1.6 million cubic metres.

Reflecting sharp reductions in demand in Japan and South Korea, Australian sawnwoodexports fell to 38 000 cubic metres and roundwood exports to 391 000 cubic metres in1997-98. There are signs, however, that both sawnwood and roundwood exports arepicking up in 1998-99. Sawnwood exports in the first six months of 1998-99 totaled nearly27 000 cubic metres, while roundwood exports totaled 380 000 cubic metres.

Exports of woodchips reached a record 8.75 million tonnes (green basis) in 1997-98. Thelower Australian dollar increased the attractiveness of Australian woodchips to Japaneseimporters — in June 1998, the yen equivalent of Australian woodchip prices was 20 percent below the US price and 14 per cent below the price from all sources (Ausnewz 1998a).Exports of woodchips are forecast to reach around 8 million tonnes (green basis) in 1998-99. Falling demand for printing and writing paper in Japan is now being reflected in risingpaper stocks, and that country’s production of paper and imports of woodchips are bothforecast to fall in 1999. North Forest products recently announced a cut in its price forbenchmark Tasmanian hardwood chips to Japan, and other Australian suppliers areunderstood to have experienced similar price reductions (Ausnewz 1999a).

Sawnwood imports rose by 4 per cent to 784 000 cubic metres in 1997-98, but are forecastto fall marginally in 1998-99. Sawnwood imports in the first six months of 1998-99 totaled406 000 cubic metres, compared with 420 000 cubic metres in the first six months of 1997-98. Wood based panels imports (including hardboard and softboard) rose by 8 per cent in1997-98 to 213 000 cubic metres. The amount imported in the first six months of 1998-99 has been about the same as was imported in the first six months of 1997-98.

Outlook for wood products to 2010Over the next decade, Australian wood products supply and demand will be influenced bytwo key factors — rising log availability, and limited prospects for growth in domesticdemand.


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Studies into the demand for new dwellings typically distinguish between the actual demandfor new dwellings, which may be influenced by short term factors such as home buyerconfidence and housing affordability, and underlying requirements, which are influencedby longer term factors such as rates of household formation and growth in income andpopulation (IPC 1997). Based on projections of household formation, and population andeconomic growth, little overall growth is projected in sawnwood and wood based panelsconsumption in Australia over the next decade. Even after allowing for some furthersubstitution of domestic sawnwood for imported sawnwood, the bulk of any increase inprocessed output based on higher industrial roundwood removals is expected to beexported as sawnwood, wood based panels, woodchips or roundwood. Australia couldbecome a net exporter of sawnwood by 2010.

Plantations will provide the bulk of increased roundwood production in the next andsucceeding decades. Most of the new plantations now being established in Australia byAustralian and overseas investors will produce hardwood pulp logs for woodchip. Furtherexpansion in Australian woodchip exports over the next decade appears likely. Theprevailing view on markets is that additional Australian production should be able to beabsorbed through an increase in market share in Japan, and higher exports to expanding,predominantly East Asian, markets.

China has the third largest pulp and paper industry in the world, and China’s consumptionof paper is rising rapidly. Paper and pulp imports are also rising. China has traditionallyrelied on nonwood fibres for the majority of its paper, but a combination of nonwood pulpmill closures because of high levels of pollution and rising quality requirements hasincreased pressure to use wood pulp. While the most likely prospect in the short term isfor increased imports of pulp (since China is already a major exporter of woodchips toJapan, Chinese Taipei and South Korea), it is possible that China may become an importerof woodchips in future (Coffey 1999).

India and Indonesia are also potential markets. India has only a modest pulp and paperindustry and paper consumption. However, India’s demand for paper, especially highquality paper based on wood fibre, is expected to increase in the future. India has thecapacity to become an importer of wood fibre, either as pulp or woodchips. Indonesia mayalso require imports of hardwood pulpwood to cover a possible gap between the exhaustionof its mixed hardwood resource and the maturing of its plantation resource establishedover the past decade (Coffey 1999).

However, Japan will remain the key to Australian woodchip exports in the foreseeablefuture. In mid-1998 the newly formed Japanese Overseas Plantation Centre for Pulpwood(JOPP) announced plans by Japanese pulp and paper companies to expand Pacific Rimplantations from 93 000 hectares in 1996 to at least 268 000 hectares. Around 100 000


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hectares of the additional 175 000 hectares is expected to be planted in Australia (Ausnewz1998b).

Short term outlook for pulp and paperWorld pulp prices rose in the first half of 1998 but fell sharply in the second half the year.Rising North American and Scandinavian stocks indicated capacity would need to be takenout of production to match falling Asian demand. Northern bleached softwood kraft(NBSK) pulp prices have been subdued so far in 1999 at around US$470 a tonne. However,bleached hardwood pulp prices have risen marginally on the startup of two large papermachines in China (Ausnewz 1999b).

With an increasing proportion of the total fibre furnish provided by wastepaper, Australianconsumption of pulp from virgin fibre has fallen since the mid-1990s. Pulp consumptionin 1997-98 was 1 115 000 tonnes (936 000 tonnes of local production and 180 000 tonnesof imports). Pulp imports are expected to rise in 1998-99 as Amcor begins buying toprovide the pulp to compensate for the closure of the 75 000 tonnes Burnie pulp mill, andto furnish the new Maryvale 5 machine (Ausnewz 1998c). In addition to wastepaper,Maryvale 5 will require about 60 000 tonnes of bleached pulp a year (Stafford 1997).

Australia consumed 3.26 million tonnes of paper in 1997-98 and is forecast to consumein excess of 3.3 million tonnes in 1998-99. Newsprint consumption rose to 718 000 tonnesin 1997-98, and with Australian mills producing at full capacity, part of the increase wascovered by higher newsprint imports from New Zealand. Newsprint imports from SouthKorea, Indonesia and Finland also rose. Newsprint imports in the first six months of 1998-99 were around 10 per cent higher than imports in the same period in 1997-98, andAustralian is forecast to consume in excess of 725 000 tonnes of newsprint in 1998-99.

Consumption of printing and writing paper is expected to reach nearly 1.0 million tonnesin 1998-99. Some of the increase will be met by output from Amcor’s Maryvale 5 machine,which commenced production in the latter half of 1998 and is expected to produce around70 000 tonnes in 1998-99. Paper imports could also increase in 1998-99 as paper exporterssuch as Indonesia and South Korea compete strongly for market share. At 286 000 tonnes,however, imports of printing and writing paper in the first six months of 1998-99 wereslightly below imports in the same period in 1997-98.

Australia consumed 208 000 tonnes of household and sanitary paper in 1997-98 and isforecast to consume 213 000 tonnes in 1998-99. Imports reached 32 000 tonnes in 1997-98. Exports, totaling 15 000 tonnes, were directed mainly to New Zealand and the top endof that market.

Apparent consumption of packaging and industrial paper rose to 1.38 million tonnes in1997-98 and is forecast to be 1.44 million tonnes in 1998-99. Imports, which rose to


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255 000 tonnes in 1997-98, were primarily higher value packaging materials such ascartonboards. Exports (239 000 tonnes) were mainly corrugating materials. Earlyindications are that packaging and industrial paper imports will be around 10 per cent lowerin 1998-99, and exports significantly lower.

Outlook for pulp and paper to 2010An estimated 14.7 million cubic metres of wood fibre (11.2 million cubic metres of pulplogs and 3.5 million cubic metres of sawmill residue) were used in the manufacture of pulpor pulpwood based products in 1997-98. Reflecting higher sawmill residues from projectedhigher sawnwood production, and higher pulp log availability from new hardwoodplantations, pulpwood and residue availability is projected to rise appreciably over the nextdecade.

The recently announced Tumut pulp and paper mill is due for start-up in April 2001 andwill produce unbleached kraft liner board for paper and packaging. The pulp capacity ofthe first stage of the mill will be 300 000 tonnes (240 000 tonnes from virgin fibre and 60 000 tonnes from wastepaper). The new Maryvale 5 machine, which has a first stagedesign capacity of 160 000 tonnes, will also increase Australian production of printing andwriting paper. Due to the wide range of papers demanded, and the small size of the domesticmarket relative to the throughput levels required for economic production, however,imports are expected to continue to supply a significant proportion (up to half) of printingand writing paper requirements in the medium term.

Consumption of newsprint and printing and writing paper in the medium term will beheavily influenced by new technological developments in the printed and electronic media.Different types and grades of paper are required for printed material intended to conveyinformation, as distinct from paper for storing information. Over the longer term,magazines and newspapers may become increasingly tailored to electronic transmission,to be printed in the homes of users. This would tend to increase the volume of papersupplied in cut sheet form, but reduce the volume consumed by the traditional method ofproducing newspapers, letterpress, and that used in gravure printing (four color print runs)(Kettunen 1998).

Forest products tradeAustralian forest products exports rose from $0.7 billion in 1991-92 to around $1.25 billionin 1997-98 (figure 2). Woodchips have generally accounted for just over half the value ofexports through the 1990s, and reached a record $646 million in 1997-98.

Reflecting the Asian economic downturn and its effect on demand for forest products, thevalue of exports is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 1998-99. However, as East Asian demandfor forest products begins to recover, exports are forecast to rise. Reflecting expectedincreases in the volume of sawnwood, roundwood, wood based panels, and woodchip


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exports, the value of forest product exports is forecast to rise to around $1.32 billion in1999-2000 and $1.4 billion in 2000-01.

Pushed up by the high volume of sawnwood imported at the peak of the last housing cycle,and also by a jump in world paper prices, the value of Australian forest products importsreached a record $3 billion in the mid-1990s. However, with the subsequent downturns inthe housing cycle and in world paper prices, the value of imports fell; it then rose (withrenewed housing activity and higher sawnwood imports) to reach $2.7 billion in 1997-98.The value of imports is forecast to remain around this level in 1998-99.

Asia Pacific supply and demandNinety-five per cent of Australian forest products exports are to the Asia Pacific region(table 6). Japan and New Zealand are the largest markets for Australia. The Pacific Rimmarket for forest products is broadly characterised by net wood and paper product flowsto East Asia (principally Japan) from North and South America, Australia, New Zealandand South East Asia. Some of Australia’s main product flows are woodchips and otherforest products to Japan, sawnwood and newsprint from New Zealand and Canada,packaging paper from the United States, and bilateral forest products trade with SouthKorea, China, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The Asia Pacific region accounted for around half of the world’s imports of industrialroundwood in 1997 (table 7). The largest importers within the region were Japan (47.3million cubic metres), South Korea (9.5 million cubic metres) and China (around 8 millioncubic metres). Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand were the region’s largest exporters(these figures include both chips and particles, and wood in round). China also exportedsignificant quantities of industrial roundwood as woodchips.


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Australian forest products tradeFigure 2:

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

500

$m

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Imports

Exports

The region produced around a fifth of the world’s industrial roundwood. China (109 millioncubic metres), Indonesia (47 million), Malaysia (36 million), India (25 million), Japan (22million), Australia (20 million) and New Zealand (16 million) were the region’s majorproducers.

The Asia Pacific was also a major consumer and producer of sawnwood, wood basedpanels, and paper and paperboard (tables 8, 9 and 10). Reflecting the Asia Pacific’s statusas a net importer of forest products (despite extensive intraregional trade), the regionaccounted for some 18 per cent of world sawnwood imports but only 6 per cent of worldexports, and for 21 per cent of world paper and paperboard imports but only 11 per centof exports. The region’s high intraregional trade in wood based panels is illustrated by itshigh share of world wood based panels imports and exports (around a third).

Japan (12.6 million cubic metres), China (3 million) and Thailand (1.5 million) were theregion’s largest importers of sawnwood, and Malaysia (3.1 million cubic metres) thelargest exporter. Per person consumption of sawnwood varied considerably between thecountries of the region, ranging from a high of 568 cubic metres in New Zealand to virtuallynil in other countries.


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Table 6: Australian forest products trade with the Asia Pacific region, 1997-98

Imports Share Exports Share

$m % $m %

Bangladesh 1 0.1China 70 2.6 34 2.7China, Hong Kong SAR 12 0.4 56 4.5Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) 25 0.9 37 3.0Fiji 6 0.2 6 0.5India 5 0.2 3 0.2Indonesia 151 5.6 25 2.0Japan 81 3.0 673 54.0Korea, Rep. of 69 2.5 34 2.7Malaysia 120 4.4 26 2.1Myanmar (Burma) 1New Zealand 573 21.1 233 18.7Papua New Guinea 2 0.1 17 1.4Philippines 7 0.3 5 0.4Singapore 21 0.8 27 2.2Sri Lanka 1 5 0.4Thailand 17 0.6 6 0.5Vietnam 1 1 0.1

Asia Pacific 1 162 42.9 1 189 95.3

Total trade 2 710 1 247

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

At 225 cubic metres, Australia has the fifth highest consumption of sawnwood per personin the Asia Pacific after New Zealand, Brunei, Japan and Malaysia.

Japan (7.4 million cubic metres), China (4.8 million) and Hong Kong and South Korea(each 1.7 million) were the region’s largest importers of wood based panels, and Indonesia(8.8 million cubic metres) and Malaysia (5.3 million) the largest exporters.

China (6.4 million tonnes), Hong Kong (4.1 million), Japan (1.6 million) and Australia(1.1 million) were the region’s largest importers of paper and paperboard, and Hong Kong(2.3 million tonnes) and South Korea (2.1 million) the largest exporters. At 170 kilogramsa year, Australia’s per person paper consumption was among the region’s highest, exceededonly by Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Hong Kong.


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Table 7: Asia Pacific industrial roundwood supply and demand, 1997

Apparent ConsumptionProduction Imports Exports consumption per person Net trade

’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 m3/hd ’000 m3

Australia 20 155 5.9 8 074.9 12 086 655 8 069.0Bangladesh 609 7.0 0.4 616 5 -6.6Bhutan 45 45 24Brunei 217 0.7 218 707 -0.7Cambodia 1 040 213.0 827 75 213.0China 108 718 7 949.2 3 167.8 113 499 93 –4 781.4China, Hong Kong SAR 930.7 548.7 382 58 –382Fiji 561 241.6 320 404 241.6India 25 030 677.7 20.6 25 687 27 –657.1Indonesia 47 289 177.6 683.0 46 783 223 505.4Japan 21 545 47 320.9 5.8 68 860 548 –47 315.1Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. 600 39.6 387.4 252 12 347.8Korea, Rep. of 1 062 9 469.9 10 532 229 –9 469.9Laos 689 168.7 520 102 168.7Malaysia 35 788 311.4 6 782.6 29 317 1 431 6 471.2Mongolia 508 12.9 2.2 518 204 –10.7Myanmar (Burma) 3 225 448.3 2 777 60 448.3Nepal 620 620 27New Zealand 16 481 3.3 5 828.0 10 656 2 971 5 824.7Pakistan 2 144 137.0 2 281 17 –137.0Papua New Guinea 3 239 0.2 2 241.5 998 222 2 241.3Philippines 3 330 785.2 4 115 54 –785.2Singapore 55.0 25.5 30 9 –29.5Solomon Islands 734 700.0 34 80 700.0Sri Lanka 700 0.3 3.3 697 37 3.0Thailand 2 828 894.2 460.5 3 262 55 –433.7Vanuatu 39 0.2 39 0 0.2Vietnam 4 498 1.5 326.4 4 173 56 324.9

Total 301 693 68 780.2 30 330.4 340 143 99 –38450

World 1 522 758 134 603.5 120 065.1Asia Pacific share (%) 20 51 25

Source: FAOSTAT.


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Table 8: Asia Pacific sawnwood supply and demand, 1997


’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 m3/hd ’000 m3

Australia 3 455 757.0 60.2 4 152 225 –696.8Bangladesh 70 5.9 1.1 75 1 –4.8Bhutan 18 0.1 18 10 0.1Brunei 90 35.1 0.2 125 406 –34.9Cambodia 175 0.2 81.8 93 8 81.6China 26 969 2 974.3 501.9 29 441 24 –2 472.4China, Hong Kong SAR 441 842.1 726.5 557 85 –115.6Fiji 102 7.4 95 119 7.4India 17 460 10.0 18.0 17 452 18 8.0Indonesia 7 238 32.5 418 6 852 33 385.5Japan 21 698 12 590.3 12.9 34 275 273 –12 577.4Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. 280 4.3 11.8 273 13 7.5Korea, Rep. of 4 759 985.0 20.0 5 724 125 –965.0Laos 560 134.1 426 83 134.1Malaysia 8 382 329.4 3 108.9 5 603 273 2 779.5Mongolia 200 0.3 190.6 10 4 190.3Myanmar (Burma) 367 223.6 143 3 223.6Nepal 620 0.1 1.0 619 27 0.9New Zealand 3 162 32.0 1 157.0 2 037 568 1 125.0Pakistan 1 024 58.0 1 082 8 –58.0Papua New Guinea 218 0.1 17.3 201 45 17.2Philippines 258 412.0 142.0 528 7 –270.0Singapore 25 601.9 227.1 400 116 –374.8Solomon Islands 12 3.8 8 19 3.8Sri Lanka 5 15.1 0.7 20 1 –14.4Thailand 322 1 463.3 79.5 1 706 29 –1 383.8Vanuatu 7 3.3 4 0 3.3Vietnam 721 6.6 23.2 704 9 16.6

Total 98 638 21 155.5 7 172.0 112 621 32.8 –13 984

World 438 918 115 892.8 112 642.5Asia Pacific share (%) 22 18 6

Source: FAOSTAT.


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Table 9: Asia Pacific wood based panels supply and demand, 1997


’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 m3/hd ’000 m3

Australia 1 434 214.3 270.0 1 378 75 55.7Bangladesh 9 3.3 13 0 –3.3Bhutan 13 13 7 0Brunei 37.1 0.1 37 120 –37.0Cambodia 58 1.1 29.1 30 3 28.0China 14 499 4 787.0 881.6 18 404 15 –3 905.4China, Hong Kong SAR 41 1 716.7 1 015.5 742 113 –701.2Chinese Taipei (Taiwan)Fiji 16 1.9 11.6 6 7 9.7India 348 46.7 13.8 381 0.4 –32.9Indonesia 10 163 43.7 8 764.2 1 443 7 8 720.5Japan 6 435 7 378.6 51.1 13 763 109 –7 327.5Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. 10.1 10 0 –10.1Korea, Rep. of 2 485 1 728 125.0 4 088 89 –1 603.0Laos 125 1.0 5.2 121 24 4.2Malaysia 7 000 138.4 5 284.1 1 854 90 5 145.7Mongolia 2 5.3 0.1 7 3 –5.2Myanmar (Burma) 10 3.8 21.1 -7 0 17.3Nepal 0.2 0 0 –0.2New Zealand 1 141 18.0 606.0 553 154 588.0Pakistan 107 16.7 124 1 –16.7Papua New Guinea 15 1.8 0.4 16 4 –1.4Philippines 435 244.4 48.9 631 8 –195.5Singapore 355 676.3 235.1 796 231 –441.2Solomon Islands 0.5 1 1 –0.5Sri Lanka 15 21.8 0.7 36 2 –21.1Thailand 548 88.3 252.2 384 6 163.9Vanuatu 0.5 0.1 0 0 –0.4Vietnam 39 43.8 13.9 69 1 –29.9

Total 45 292 17 229.0 17 630.0 44 891 13.1 401

World 155 634 47 672 49 839Asia Pacific share (%) 29 36 35

Source: FAOSTAT.


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Table 10: Asia Pacific paper and paperboard supply and demand, 1997


’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 ’000 m3 m3/hd ’000 m3

Australia 2 418 1 136.3 419.4 3 135 170.0 –716.9Bangladesh 70 125.0 195 1.6 –125.0Bhutan 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 –0.1Brunei 1.2 0.1 1 3.6 –1.1Cambodia 1.8 2 0.2 –1.8China 31 583 6 410.1 1 002.4 36 991 30.2 –5 407.7China, Hong Kong SAR 280 4 053.3 2 347.2 1 986 303.4 –1 706.1Fiji 6.1 6 7.7 –6.1India 3 025 657.4 16.3 3 666 3.8 –641.1Indonesia 4 930 198.8 1 212.6 3 916 18.7 1 013.8Japan 31 016 1 613.7 1 148.9 31 481 250.5 –464.8Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. 80 4.4 0.8 84 3.9 –3.6Korea, Rep. of 8 363 547.7 2 076.7 6 834 148.7 1 529.0Laos 3.1 0.2 3 0.6 –2.9Malaysia 711 992.6 98.5 1 605 78.3 –894.1Mongolia 1.3 1 0.5 –1.3Myanmar (Burma) 19 17.3 36 0.8 –17.3Nepal 13 2.9 0.9 15 0.6 –2.0New Zealand 873 236.7 409.3 700 195.3 172.6Pakistan 500 129.8 630 4.8 –129.8Papua New Guinea 5.5 6 1.2 –5.5Philippines 613 405.7 44.8 974 12.8 –360.9Singapore 87 749.9 210.4 627 182.1 –539.5Solomon Islands 0.1 0 0.2 –0.1Sri Lanka 24.5 88.9 0.1 113 6.1 –88.8Thailand 2 271 404.0 525.7 2 149 36.2 121.7Vanuatu 0.1Vietnam 125 62.2 1.8 185 2.5 –60.4

Total 87 002 17 856.1 9 516.2 95 341 27.8 –8340

World 297 900 83 061.6 87 214.9Asia Pacific share (%) 29 21 11

Source: FAOSTAT.

Developments in key Asia Pacific markets

Developments in key markets in the Asia Pacific region will affect future Australian forestproduct trade.

JapanJapan took A$674 million, or 54 per cent, of Australia’s forest products exports in 1997-98. Woodchips comprised the bulk of Japan’s imports of Australian product, and hardwoodand softwood woodchip imports remained strong in 1997-98 despite Japan’s economicslowdown. However, Japan’s paper inventories have now begun to build, and paperproduction and woodchip imports are expected to fall in 1998-99. Japan’s pulp and papercompanies forecast that woodchip imports will rise in the medium term (Iida 1998). Toassure future supplies, these companies have been investing in overseas plantations ofeucalyptus in Australia, Chile and other countries of the region. However, it is uncertainwhether some sections of Japan’s highly protected pulp and paper milling industry willremain viable in the future. A reduction in the country’s demand for woodchips in themedium term would pose both a problem and an opportunity for Australia, reducing exportdemand for Australia’s largest forest product export but also increasing wood fibreavailability for domestic processing and for other export markets.

The downturn in Japan’s economy is also having a major impact on regional sawnwoodand log trade. Japan provides a key market not only for softwood producers such as theUnited States and Canada, but also for tropical timber suppliers such as Indonesia andMalaysia. It is also a major user of plantation timbers such as radiata pine from NewZealand and Chile. Japan’s total imports of sawnwood and logs fell to 25 million cubicmetres in 1998 — down 28 per cent from 1997 — according to the Japan Lumber ImporterAssociation. New dwelling commencements continued to fall in that year, despite all timelow housing mortgage rates (Bean and Nagahama 1998). Australian exports of sawnwoodto Japan halved to 9000 cubic metres in 1997-98 and remain low in 1998-99. Australiansawnwood exporters are seeking to boost the level of exports to Japan by repositioninginto appearance grade markets and structural applications.

New Zealand New Zealand is Australia’s second largest export market for forest products (worth A$232million in 1997-98) as well as the largest supplier of imported forest products (A$573million). Australian exports are predominantly packaging and tissue paper; importscomprise mainly softwood sawnwood, wood based panels and newsprint.

New Zealand harvests 99 per cent of its wood from pine plantations covering 1.5 millionhectares. However, with both New Zealand and Australia rapidly expanding their output


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of softwood from plantations, the increasing supply of softwood timber products will leadto growing competition on the Australian market between locally manufactured timberproducts and New Zealand imports.

The United States and Australia have been large importers of New Zealand timber productsduring the Asian downturn. Although a slump in exports to Asian markets is regarded asonly temporary, the long term outlook for New Zealand whole logs and sawnwood exportssuggests that these markets may be unable to absorb the increasing softwood resourcesavailable to them. According to the New Zealand Ministry of Finance, processed woodexports will have to take up most of the increment. Over the long term, the Ministryanticipates a massive investment in new plants, including more medium size sawmills,remanufacturing plants, panelboard mills and pulp and paper plants (Neilson 1998). NewZealand exporters are now turning their attention to India and China — the most populated,fast growing economies of the region, and ones that have scarce local timber resources —as long term markets.

South KoreaSouth Korea’s main forest products exports are newsprint, coated paperboard, and printingand writing paper. Traditionally, South Korea has exported around 10 per cent of its paperand board production. However, falling domestic paper demand and lower exchange ratesagainst major trading partners have encouraged South Korean exports to rise to around 25per cent of production, a level expected to be maintained over the next few years (Hak1998). Given the currently keen competitive position of South Korea’s paper exports,Australian imports of South Korean produced writing paper and newsprint appear likelyto continue in the medium term.

Given a lack of forest resources, only 15 per cent of South Korea’s required raw materialis supplied locally and the remaining 85 per cent is imported. Australia’s main exports toSouth Korea in 1997-98 were roundwood ($24 million out of a total $34 million).Australia’s roundwood exports to South Korea, which had increased to 407 000 cubicmetres in 1996-97, fell in 1997-98 as that country’s demand for wood products slowed.However, Australia’s roundwood exports to South Korea rose sharply in the second halfof calendar 1998, and are projected to continue to increase in the medium term as the SouthKorean economy recovers from recession. To secure a stable source of raw materials, SouthKorean paper manufacturers have engaged in overseas investment, planting acacia andeucalyptus in Australia, the Philippines and Paraguay, and setting up production facilitiesfor newsprint and printing paper in Indonesia, Thailand and China (Paper Asia 1998).


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ChinaAustralian exports of forest products to China (including Hong Kong) totaled $90 millionin 1997-98, comprising mainly packaging and industrial paper. Australia imported $70million of forest products (primarily ‘miscellaneous forest products’) from China in thesame year.

China’s wood product market, like many other sectors of the Chinese economy, isundergoing significant change (Bean 1998). In 1998 China’s government announced strictcontrols on logging as part of a long term plan to halt all logging in natural forests. Thefirst stage in this plan involves reducing production in state owned forests from 33 millioncubic metres in 1997 to 23 million cubic metres by 2000.

State Forest Bureau log production fell to 56.8 million cubic metres in 1998 from 61.3million cubic metres in 1997. At the same time, strong demand from the construction andfurniture and interiors sectors boosted wood consumption by the state sector to 59.2 millioncubic metres. China is developing its plantation forest industry but, given the loggingcutbacks in natural forests, the current net shortfall in wood products may rise from 12–15million cubic metres a year to 40–45 million cubic metres by 2000 (Random LengthsExport 1998). China’s decision to reduce the harvest from its depleted native forests, toreduce tariffs on wood products, and to encourage imports of timber products may opennew markets for Australian timber products.

China’s growing pulp and paper industry may also provide opportunities for Australianpulpwood exporters. Already the third largest paper producer in the world, China isexpanding capacity to satisfy growing export demand for packaging and paperboard, anddomestic demand for household paper products and newsprint. China’s total consumptionof paper and paperboard, estimated at 28.9 million tonnes in 1998, is forecast to exceed34 million tonnes in 2000 (Yang 1997). Thus China could join Japan and South Korea asa significant market for imported pulpwood.

IndiaIndia’s 1996 ban on logging of indigenous forests has opened a new potential market forexporters of softwood and hardwood forest products. To help increase imports, Indiaremoved a 15 per cent duty on log imports, although higher value processed wood productsstill attract duties up to 37 per cent.

Similarly, the pulp and paper industry is facing a problem of shortage of raw fibre which,according to current projections, could result in the gap of 1.5 million tonnes betweenpaper production and consumption by the year 2000. This gap is projected to continue towiden over time (Rao, Bhattacharya and Banerjee 1998). With production capacity farexceeding supply of raw materials, and with continuing strong economic growth projected


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over the medium term, India may present a major opportunity for Australian exporters ofwoodchips and pulpwood.

IndonesiaAustralian exports of forest products to Indonesia totaled $25 million in 1997-98; importsfrom Indonesia (mainly hardwood sawnwood, plywood and paper) totaled $151 million.Indonesia remains the largest producer of tropical hardwood plywood in the world, withJapan, Korea and China traditionally accounting for around two-thirds of exports. Importdemand for Indonesian plywood fell sharply in Japan and Korea in 1998, and was onlypartly offset by higher imports by China as a result of that country’s new policy of reducingdomestic logging (Voboril and Alam 1998). Indonesian exports of plywood to Australiarose by around 20 per cent to 28 000 tonnes in 1997-98, and have continued at this higherlevel so far in 1998-99.

Australian imports of pulp and paper from Indonesia have also risen. Following significantinvestment in capacity, Indonesia has become the major regional producer of pulp andpaper, with total capacity in Sumatra reaching 2.5 million tonnes of pulp and 472 000tonnes of paper in 1998. Anticipating a shortage of raw fibre, pulpwood plantations havebeen established in the region, but none is yet ready for harvest. As a result, the Indonesianpulp and paper industry operates below its capacity. Indonesia’s wood processingindustries — sawmilling, plywood and furniture — are facing a similar problem.

MalaysiaAustralia imported $120 million worth of forest products from Malaysia in 1997-98, andexported forest products to Malaysia valued at $26 million.

Malaysia is one of the most important source countries for internationally traded tropicaltimber. Malaysia’s total roundwood production declined in 1997; declines in output fromPeninsular Malaysia and Sabah reflected a continued attempt to reduce timber output to amore sustainable level. Only Sarawak increased roundwood output, reflecting an increasein the conversion of forested land to crop plantations (Fleck and Hoh 1998). In an effortto achieve sustainable management of forests by 2000, the Malaysian government hastightened arrangements for the environmental impact assessment of logging concessions,with these now to be carried out by the government on the entire forest concession or ona district by district basis. Previously the individual concession owners carried out theassessment (Asian Timber 1998).

To meet the projected wood requirement of the wood using industries in PeninsularMalaysia, the Compensatory Forestry Plantation Project was launched in 1982 with theaim of establishing around 100 000 hectares of plantation based on a fifteen year rotation


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of fast growing hardwood species. Plantings under the Project and other State Forestryprograms now exceed 65 000 hectares. Plantings in Sabah and Sarawak also exceed 100 000 hectares (Fleck and Hoh 1998).

The Malaysian timber sector has been adversely affected by the Asian economic downturn,with demand for logs and lumber from traditional buyers such as Thailand, Japan, SouthKorea and the Philippines down in 1998. However, despite some slowdown, domesticdemand for timber from the construction, and furniture and interior sectors has remainedrelatively strong.

Concluding remarksBased on current projections, softwood sawlog availability is projected to rise significantlyover the next decade. If milling capacity is expanded to process the increased availability,Australia may be a significant net exporter of sawnwood after 2000. Hardwood pulp logavailability is also projected to rise once plantations now being established reachharvestable age. East Asia is expected to remain the dominant market for Australianpulpwood in the medium term. However, the number of Australian industries that usepulpwood may expand, provided suitable markets can be found and if the appropriate scaleof plant is identified. Strategic planning may also be required to ensure an appropriateresource base for expanding these industries.

ReferencesABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 1999, Building Activity, Dwelling Unit Commence-

ments Australia, Preliminary, December quarter 1998, cat. no. 8750.0, Canberra.

Asian Timber 1998, ‘New EIA guidelines for logging set’, Asian Timber, vol. 17, no. 10,p. 10.

Ausnewz 1998a, ‘Pulpwood pricing anomaly’, Ausnewz Pulp and Paper, vol. 12, no. 8, p.9.

—— 1998b, ‘Plantations – Japan targets Australia’, Ausnewz Pulp and Paper, vol. 12, no.4, pp. 1–2.

—— 1998c, ‘Pulp imports’, Ausnewz Pulp and Paper, vol. 12, no. 11, p. 12.

—— 1999a, ‘The future for export pulpwood’, Ausnewz Pulp and Paper, vol. 13, no. 2, p.1.

—— 1999b, ‘Price watch: pulp, paper and board’, Ausnewz Pulp and Paper, vol. 13, no.2, p. 11.


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Bean, C. 1998, China, People’s Republic of: Forest Products Annual 1998, GlobalAgriculture Information Network Report CH8038, US Department of Agriculture,Washington DC.

—— and Nagahama, M. 1998, 1998 Outlook for Japan’s Wood Imports, Attaché ReportJA9855V, AGR no. JA8040, US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC.

Bills, G. 1999, ‘HIA outlook: housing won’t fall much, will it?’, Housing, March, p. 51.

BRS (Bureau of Rural Sciences) 1998, Australia’s State of the Forests Report 1998,Canberra.

Bull, G., Mabee, W. and Scharpenberg, R. 1998, Global Fibre Supply Model, FAO, Rome.

Coffey, R. 1999, ‘Pulpwood and roundwood: emerging issues for Australian exports’, inOutlook 99, vol. 1, Commodity Markets and Resource Management, ABARE, Canberra,pp. 261–6.

Commonwealth of Australia 1997, Australia’s First Approximation Report for theMontreal Process, Canberra.

FAO 1999a, State of the World’s Forests — 1999, FAO, Rome.

FAO 1999b, Global forest sector outlook: the implications of future wood product marketdevelopments for sustainable forest management, Secretariat note, Item 6, FourteenthSession of the Committee on Forestry, Rome, 1–5 March.

Fleck, L. and Hoh, R. 1998, Malaysia: Forest Products Annual Report 1998, AttachéReport, GAIN no. MY8040, US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC.

Hak, L.L. 1998, ‘Korea enhances technological capabilities in papermaking’, Paper Asia,vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 24–5.

Iida, K. 1998, ‘More R&D efforts for sustaining Japan’s ecological state’, Paper Asia, vol.14, no. 2, pp. 16–20.

IPC (Indicative Planning Council for the Housing Industry) 1997, Housing ProspectsReport 1997, Department of Industry, Science and Tourism, Canberra, October.

Kettunen, J. 1998, ‘From paper making to information services’, Paper Asia Focus on theFar East 1998-99, pp. 24–5.

Neilson, T. 1998, ‘Delivering on the promise’, New Zealand Pine International,January–February 1998, issue 20.

Neufeld, B. 1997, 1997, ‘Key influences on domestic production and consumption offorest products’, in Outlook 97, vol. 1, Commodity Markets and Resource Management,ABARE, Canberra, pp. 191–8.


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Paper Asia 1998, ‘Inexhaustible opportunities in the Korean industry’, Paper Asia, vol.14, no. 3, pp. 8–11.

Random Lengths Export 1998, ‘Logging cutbacks, wood-use initiative raise China’smarket potential’, Random Lengths Export, vol. 31, no. 24, p.1.

Rao, A.R.K., Bhattacharya, J.P. and Banerjee, S. 1998, ‘India: Pursuing a better futurewith tenacity’, Paper Asia, vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 10–12.

Stafford, B. 1997, Opportunities in the Australian pulp and paper industry, Paper presentedat the Third Annual Asia Pacific Pulp and Paper Summit, Singapore, 20–31 September.

Vobiril, D. and Alam, N. 1998, Indonesia: Forest Products Annual 1998, GlobalAgriculture Information Network Report ID8075, US Department of Agriculture,Washington DC.

Whiteman, A. 1999, Global Forest Products Outlook Study, FAO, Rome.

Wood, M., Howell C. and Jones, M. 1999, ‘Australia’s national plantation inventory: aninterim update’, Australian Forest Products Statistics, September quarter 1998, pp. 1–2.

Yang, Z. 1997, ‘China charts course for steady development’, Paper Asia, vol. 13, no. 8,pp. 7–9.


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