AATS 2005 conferenceAATS 2005 conference

- Advanced Automated Transport - Advanced Automated Transport SystemsSystems

University of BolognaUniversity of Bologna

November 7, 2005November 7, 2005

Arno Mong DaastoelArno Mong Daastoel

InnoTransInnoTrans, Norway, Norway

amd@innotrans.netamd@innotrans.net

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU’s EU’s increasingly clogged increasingly clogged transporttransport

• and a PRT visionand a PRT vision

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU transport sectorEU transport sector

• 20 % of GNP of most nations20 % of GNP of most nations

• € € 1000 billion market1000 billion market

• 2/3rd costs related to manpower 2/3rd costs related to manpower

• Physical transport is a tech laggard Physical transport is a tech laggard (compared to communication in general)(compared to communication in general)

Severe problems – on all levelsSevere problems – on all levelsa) Space: local, regional, national, continentala) Space: local, regional, national, continentalb) Quality of life: Health, environment, time, expensesb) Quality of life: Health, environment, time, expenses

InnoTranInnoTranss

““The European Miracle”The European Miracle” 1. City State Mercantilism1. City State Mercantilism

• A sensible experience: 15A sensible experience: 15thth Century- Century-Increased life spanIncreased life spanHuge growth per capitaHuge growth per capita

• The Wealth of CitiesThe Wealth of CitiesPopulation density – “friction and fire”Population density – “friction and fire”Many trades: Communication and Many trades: Communication and

InnovationInnovation (- the internet will super fuel innovation)(- the internet will super fuel innovation)

InnoTranInnoTranss

““The European Miracle”The European Miracle” 2. National Mercantilism2. National Mercantilism

• Ruler’s duty: Create & protect prosperityRuler’s duty: Create & protect prosperity

• Create infrastructureCreate infrastructure AdministrationAdministration Standards: Grammar, Education, Law, CreditStandards: Grammar, Education, Law, Credit TransportTransport

• ““National Cities” through integrating National Cities” through integrating transporttransport

• ““Artificial population density”Artificial population density”

InnoTranInnoTranss

Learning by Experience:Learning by Experience:The Art of BorrowingThe Art of Borrowing(i.e. espionage and theft of knowledge from the leader)(i.e. espionage and theft of knowledge from the leader)

Sumeria 3500-2500 BCSumeria 3500-2500 BCPhoenicia 1500-500 BC Phoenicia 1500-500 BC

(+ China 500 BC-)(+ China 500 BC-)Byzantium 667-1400 ADByzantium 667-1400 AD Italian cities 700-1600 ADItalian cities 700-1600 ADThe Netherlands 1500-1700The Netherlands 1500-1700Britain 1600-1900Britain 1600-1900USA 1800-2000USA 1800-2000Germany, Russia, Japan 1863-Germany, Russia, Japan 1863-

++Korea, Taiwan 1953-Korea, Taiwan 1953-China, India 1989-China, India 1989-

InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – WaterTransport in History – Water- - large scale public workslarge scale public works

• IrrigationIrrigation India – India – Harappa culture 3000 BCHarappa culture 3000 BC Egypt – King Menes 3000 BCEgypt – King Menes 3000 BC Sumeria – Sumeria – King King Hammurabi 1760 BCHammurabi 1760 BC China - China - Karez & Dujiangyan systems 250 BCKarez & Dujiangyan systems 250 BC

• CanalsCanals Egypt – Upper Nile 4000 BC, Egypt – Upper Nile 4000 BC, Nile to Red Sea 404 BCNile to Red Sea 404 BC Mesopotamia - Shatt-el-hai Canal – Eufrates and Tigris 2200 BCMesopotamia - Shatt-el-hai Canal – Eufrates and Tigris 2200 BC China - China - Wild Goose Canal 600 BC, Wild Goose Canal 600 BC, Grand Canal, 600 ADGrand Canal, 600 AD Germany – Charlemagne: Rhine and Danube 793 AD - finished Germany – Charlemagne: Rhine and Danube 793 AD - finished

1846, new 19921846, new 1992 Netherlands’ single lock 1065, Flemish Netherlands’ single lock 1065, Flemish double lock double lock 1364 1364 France - France - Briare Canal 1604, Languedoc Canal 1666Briare Canal 1604, Languedoc Canal 1666 Sweden – Sweden – Mälaren, 1606, Göta Canal 1810 Mälaren, 1606, Göta Canal 1810 USA – Lake USA – Lake Michigan & Mississippi Michigan & Mississippi 1683, 1683, Erie Canal 1825Erie Canal 1825 England, England, Manchester Manchester 17591759 Germany – Kiel Germany – Kiel CanalCanal 1784; 1784; Mittelland Canal, 1905 onwardsMittelland Canal, 1905 onwards

InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – UrbanTransport in History – Urban- - large scale public workslarge scale public works

•Water supply - networksWater supply - networks Assyrian aqueducts 700 BC Assyrian aqueducts 700 BC (longest was (longest was 80 km 80 km ))

Roman aqueducts Roman aqueducts – A– Aqua Appia 312 BC; Eifel 80 AD; Carthage 200 ADqua Appia 312 BC; Eifel 80 AD; Carthage 200 AD

•Sewers Sewers (plumbing)(plumbing)

Sumeria 4000 BC Sumeria 4000 BC (Iraq)(Iraq) Harappa 3000 Harappa 3000 (Pakistan)(Pakistan) Minoan 2500 Minoan 2500 (Crete)(Crete)

RomeRome 800 BC 800 BC China 200 BCChina 200 BC London London (1668)(1668), Paris, Berlin, Hamburg 1840s AD, Paris, Berlin, Hamburg 1840s AD

InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – LandTransport in History – Land- - large scale public workslarge scale public works

• Road networkRoad network Horse-drawn chariot introduced in Near East, 1700 BC Horse-drawn chariot introduced in Near East, 1700 BC Persia – King Persia – King Darius, 522 BCDarius, 522 BC Rome – Rome – Via Appia: Via Appia: 312 BC312 BC China – Emperor China – Emperor Shihuangdi , 220 BCShihuangdi , 220 BC Inca – 1100 ADInca – 1100 AD Automobile Highways – (1888) US, Germany, Sweden in 1930s Automobile Highways – (1888) US, Germany, Sweden in 1930s

• Railroad networks Railroad networks (“Locomotive”)(“Locomotive”) British Empire – (1803) 1825 onwards British Empire – (1803) 1825 onwards USA – (1804) 1828; Trans-Continental 1869 – Lincoln, DodgeUSA – (1804) 1828; Trans-Continental 1869 – Lincoln, Dodge Germany – (1815) 1835Germany – (1815) 1835 Russia – Trans-Siberian 1903 - Alexander II & WitteRussia – Trans-Siberian 1903 - Alexander II & Witte Sun Yat Sen, 1927 - today’s China: southern Trans-Eurasian ++Sun Yat Sen, 1927 - today’s China: southern Trans-Eurasian ++ AutomatedAutomated: New York 1962 (Grand Central Shuttle) : New York 1962 (Grand Central Shuttle)

• Air Air – 1900s– 1900s

InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – UrbanTransport in History – Urban- - large scale public workslarge scale public works

• Trams Trams Horse - 1828 USA: Baltimore, New York, New OrleansHorse - 1828 USA: Baltimore, New York, New Orleans Steam – 1873Steam – 1873 Electric – 1881: BerlinElectric – 1881: Berlin Elevated Steam – 1868: New York; Chicago 1863Elevated Steam – 1868: New York; Chicago 1863 Elevated Electric – 1894: New YorkElevated Electric – 1894: New York Trolley bus – 1881: Richmond, USATrolley bus – 1881: Richmond, USA

• SubwaySubway Steam - 1850s: New York; London 1863; Istanbul 1875Steam - 1850s: New York; London 1863; Istanbul 1875 Electric – 1890: London; Budapest 1896; Boston 1897Electric – 1890: London; Budapest 1896; Boston 1897 Automated – London 1968, 1987; Lille 1983Automated – London 1968, 1987; Lille 1983

• Elevated MonorailElevated Monorail Horse – 1825 Chesnut, EnglandHorse – 1825 Chesnut, England Steam - 1876 Philadelphia, Listowel & Ballybunion, England 1888Steam - 1876 Philadelphia, Listowel & Ballybunion, England 1888 Electric - Wuppertal 1901; Genoa 1914; Swedish-German ALWEG 1952; Electric - Wuppertal 1901; Genoa 1914; Swedish-German ALWEG 1952;

Tokyo 1957; Disneyland (ALWEG) 1959; Turin 1961; Seattle 1962; Tokyo 1957; Disneyland (ALWEG) 1959; Turin 1961; Seattle 1962; Tampa 1971Tampa 1971

Automated AND Personal - Morgantown 1975; Heathrow, London 2007?Automated AND Personal - Morgantown 1975; Heathrow, London 2007?InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – Transport in History – SymbolsSymbols- - Preconditions for CommunicationPreconditions for Communication

•‘‘National’ StandardsNational’ Standards Alphabet – Alphabet – Sumeria 3500 BCSumeria 3500 BC

‘‘Grammar’, mathematics, calendar and time – Grammar’, mathematics, calendar and time – Sumeria Sumeria

•MediaMedia Books by mechanical mass printing Books by mechanical mass printing

- - China 868; China 868; Germany 1448 Germany 1448 ADAD

Newspapers – Newspapers – China, Roman Empire etc.; Europe 1600sChina, Roman Empire etc.; Europe 1600s ADAD

InnoTranInnoTranss

Transport in History – MediaTransport in History – Media- - large scale public workslarge scale public works

• ‘‘Physical’ NetworksPhysical’ Networks Sound, light and smoke signalsSound, light and smoke signals Postal network - China, Persia, Rome etc. - Europe 1600s ADPostal network - China, Persia, Rome etc. - Europe 1600s AD

• Wired NetworksWired Networks Telegraph – 1837 Telegraph – 1837 (Morse)(Morse) Phone –1890s Phone –1890s (1860 Meucci) (1860 Meucci) Fax –1970s Fax –1970s (1843) (1843) Internet – 1990s Internet – 1990s (1960s)(1960s)

• Wireless NetworksWireless Networks Radio broadcasting – 1897 Radio broadcasting – 1897 (1873)(1873) TV broadcasting – 1928 TV broadcasting – 1928 (1885)(1885)

Radio and telegraph - two-way communication – 1900 Radio and telegraph - two-way communication – 1900 (1890s)(1890s) Mobile phone – 1980s Mobile phone – 1980s (1970s)(1970s) Wireless Internet – 1990sWireless Internet – 1990s

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU after 1989 EU after 1989 - Fall of “Berlin - Fall of “Berlin

Wall”Wall” • For EU to integrate (For EU to integrate (- into one efficient market)- into one efficient market)

EU needs EU needs

• StandardsStandards Taxation Taxation (“harmony”)(“harmony”)

FinanceFinance TransportTransport

• New transport links New transport links East-WestEast-West

+ old problem:+ old problem:

North-South, through the mountainsNorth-South, through the mountains- Pyrenees and the Alps- Pyrenees and the Alps

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU White Paper 2001:EU White Paper 2001:“European transport policy for 2010: time to “European transport policy for 2010: time to decidedecide””

• “ “Transport is the essential driver” Transport is the essential driver” - of industry, trade, way of life, EU integration - of industry, trade, way of life, EU integration

• After 1992 - no harmonious integrationAfter 1992 - no harmonious integration

Result:Result:

• Growing congestion, delays, and pollution Growing congestion, delays, and pollution

InnoTranInnoTranss

Today - EU suffocatesToday - EU suffocates

Transport, increased share of GDPTransport, increased share of GDP – substituting welfare– substituting welfare

Increasing congestion cIncreasing congestion chokes hokes EU EU Continent less competitiveContinent less competitiveHarms the environment Harms the environment

Harms general living standardsHarms general living standards

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU-congestion affectsEU-congestion affects

• Road Road : 10% of network: 7 500 km: 10% of network: 7 500 km

• Rail Rail : 20% of network: 16 000 km: 20% of network: 16 000 km- Freight: 18 kmph, poor punctuality- Freight: 18 kmph, poor punctuality

• Air Air : 30 % : 30 % > > 15 minutes delayed15 minutes delayed

CostCost : 0,5 % of GDP p/a ; 1% in 2010: 0,5 % of GDP p/a ; 1% in 2010

InnoTranInnoTranss

Growth : 2001- 2010Growth : 2001- 2010- if nothing is done- if nothing is done

• 2 x cars in 30 years, + 3 mill per year2 x cars in 30 years, + 3 mill per year

• Passengers + 43 %Passengers + 43 %

• Goods + 50 % Goods + 50 %

• Sea: + 41 %, Sea: + 41 %,

• Rail: 8 %Rail: 8 %

• Road: 44 %Road: 44 %

• Waterways: 4 %Waterways: 4 %

• Co2 : 50 % 1990-2010 (84 % from road)Co2 : 50 % 1990-2010 (84 % from road)

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU policy will EU policy will (“wishful thoughts”)(“wishful thoughts”)

• Decouple growth – in GNP & transportDecouple growth – in GNP & transport

• Shift mode : transport to railShift mode : transport to rail

• Eliminate bottlenecks : investEliminate bottlenecks : invest

• Place user in centrePlace user in centre

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU Goals EU Goals (defensive and modest)(defensive and modest)

• Freight +38 % instead of 50 %Freight +38 % instead of 50 %

• Passenger + 21 % instead of 43 %Passenger + 21 % instead of 43 %

• 200 mill ton reduction of CO2200 mill ton reduction of CO2

InnoTranInnoTranss

Urban transportUrban transport

• Better use of carsBetter use of cars

• Improve rail tremendouslyImprove rail tremendously

• Increased cost of transport transferred to Increased cost of transport transferred to improved quality, corridorsimproved quality, corridors

BUT:BUT:EU can only propose, local authorities EU can only propose, local authorities decidedecide

InnoTranInnoTranss

EU policies’ 60 measuresEU policies’ 60 measures• Tougher controls, penalties, uniform law, better information

• “Motorways of the Sea”: Simplify harbour rules, one-stop shop• Waterway link to rivers, tech standardisation, improved

navigation• Short-sea shipping, start-up aid for logistics

• Marco Polo (intermodal freight - - replaces PACT): € 30 mill p/a• Galileo (radio navigation) • Single sky from 2004, common rules, “Eurocontrol”,

intermodality

• Substitute fuel: bio: 2 % in 2005, 6 % in 2010 (by tax incentives) • Standard tax on fuel• Fund construction of missing links in corridors

• Integrate rail in internal market, liberalisation• International freight trains, today: 18 km/h, lack of punctuality• TEN & HST (Trans-European Network & High Speed Trains)

- Iberian HST, Rail through Pyrenees, - Stuttgart-Vienna, Denmark-Germany (Fehmarn), Straubing-Vilishofen, - Verona-Naples, Bologna-Milan InnoTranInnoTran

ss

Comments Comments - - on EU Goals & Measureson EU Goals & Measures

• GoalsGoalsToo modestToo modest Matters will deteriorateMatters will deteriorate

• MeasuresMeasuresOnly negativeOnly negative

(will increase costs and inefficiency of the economy: less (will increase costs and inefficiency of the economy: less competitive)competitive)

PatchworksPatchworks - on old technologies - on old technologies (high-tech is used to ‘polish’ old solutions)(high-tech is used to ‘polish’ old solutions)

InnoTranInnoTranss

Single Market Single Market – late 1980s – late 1980s initiativesinitiatives

Main aMain architect: rchitect: Jaques Delors et.al. Jaques Delors et.al. (then EU Commissioner, form. Finance Minister of France, under Mitterand)(then EU Commissioner, form. Finance Minister of France, under Mitterand)

1)1) Customs Union Customs Union (model: (model: German Zollverein, German Zollverein, 1818-1888)1818-1888)

2)2) Harmonious taxation & regulations Harmonious taxation & regulations (contracts (contracts

etc.)etc.)

3)3) Common money Common money - EMU 1989, €uro 1992 (2002)- EMU 1989, €uro 1992 (2002)

4)4) TEN 1992 TEN 1992 (Trans-European Networks)(Trans-European Networks)

InnoTranInnoTranss

The continental TEN projectThe continental TEN project

• 1993: “TEN- Trans-European 1993: “TEN- Trans-European Networks”Networks”- 14 projects under - 14 projects under H. ChristoffersenH. Christoffersen

• Italy 2003: Italy 2003: ”The ”The Tremonti Plan”Tremonti Plan”

• Austria 2006 ?Austria 2006 ?

InnoTranInnoTranss

2003: Italy as EU chairman:2003: Italy as EU chairman: ”The ”The Tremonti Plan”Tremonti Plan”

• FT: “Transport is key to growth, EU FT: “Transport is key to growth, EU says”says”

• 20 bn Euros for TENs 20 bn Euros for TENs

• € € 70bn infrastructure spending plan 70bn infrastructure spending plan = ”prime pumping”= ”prime pumping”

InnoTranInnoTranss

Coming EU mid-term review Coming EU mid-term review

(of White Paper - preliminary development (of White Paper - preliminary development

2004)2004) • Freight up Freight up >> than GDP growth than GDP growth

• People up People up << than GDP growth than GDP growth

• NB! - NB! - todaytoday practically practically zerozero growth growth

• Dramatic change - when growth picks Dramatic change - when growth picks upup

InnoTranInnoTranss

Traffic developmentTraffic development - preliminary development 2004- preliminary development 2004

• Air 67 % - since 1993!Air 67 % - since 1993!

• Railways steadily Railways steadily - Railway freight but high-speed- Railway freight but high-speed

• Cars , especially freightCars , especially freight

InnoTranInnoTranss

Emmisions, accidents & Emmisions, accidents & congestioncongestion-preliminary development 2004-preliminary development 2004

• Emissions Emissions Nitrogen, still problems with small particles (Diesel)Nitrogen, still problems with small particles (Diesel)

• Accidents Accidents 1993-2004: 70.000 to 43.000 1993-2004: 70.000 to 43.000 - but still 20.000 too much (relative comp. to - but still 20.000 too much (relative comp. to Norway)Norway)

• Congestion Congestion - Increased on roads due to freight- Increased on roads due to freight

InnoTranInnoTranss

Improvement depends onImprovement depends on

connecting two issuesconnecting two issues

1)1) Innovative TransportInnovative Transport

++

2)2) Innovative FinanceInnovative Finance

InnoTranInnoTranss

Innovative Transport - 1Innovative Transport - 1

•EU support ? EU support ? - Solve freight problem - Solve freight problem (door-to-door - as with transport of people)(door-to-door - as with transport of people)

•Plan in principle – long term Plan in principle – long term - New national networks “from the bottom”- New national networks “from the bottom”

InnoTranInnoTranss

Innovative TransportInnovative Transport -2-2

• Utilise tech. potential Utilise tech. potential 1)1) Automation Automation

2)2) On-vehicle switchingOn-vehicle switching

• Integrate:Integrate:1)1) Modes:Modes: People & Goods etc. People & Goods etc.

2)2) LevelsLevels: Local, regional, national, continental networks: Local, regional, national, continental networks

(1x1 meter beam can carry 1 ton/meter = even containers and (1x1 meter beam can carry 1 ton/meter = even containers and mineral ore)mineral ore)

InnoTranInnoTranss

Public goods & Public goods & responsibilityresponsibility1)1) Concentrated costs Concentrated costs

- like private goods- like private goods

2)2) Widely distributed benefits Widely distributed benefits - in space and time- in space and time- unlike private goods- unlike private goods

Systematic under-investmentSystematic under-investment- if market alone is responsible- if market alone is responsible

Governments & EU must actGovernments & EU must act

InnoTranInnoTranss

Use PRT for ‘Prime Pumping’ Use PRT for ‘Prime Pumping’ EUEU

• Historical parallelsHistorical parallels

Railroads & TelegraphRailroads & Telegraph– UK, USA, Germany, Russia etc.– UK, USA, Germany, Russia etc.

Highways and automobiles Highways and automobiles - USA, Germany, Sweden etc.- USA, Germany, Sweden etc.

InternetInternet

InnoTranInnoTranss

(Over-)Mature Industrial (Over-)Mature Industrial NationsNations- in Europe- in Europe

• High social spending; pensions and High social spending; pensions and healthhealth

• Little investment in infrastructureLittle investment in infrastructure

Stagnating growthStagnating growth

InnoTranInnoTranss

Mature exceptionsMature exceptions

• USA DeindustrialisationUSA Deindustrialisation UnsocialUnsocial Unsustainable bubble to popUnsustainable bubble to pop

(real estate, derivatives, triple deficits)(real estate, derivatives, triple deficits)

• Japan: Continued industrialisationJapan: Continued industrialisation Investment in infrastructureInvestment in infrastructure No outsourcing of advanced processesNo outsourcing of advanced processes

InnoTranInnoTranss

Developing NationsDeveloping Nations

• High growth: Taiwan, China etc.High growth: Taiwan, China etc.

High investment in infrastructure High investment in infrastructure - - createscreates ““physical trickle down”: physical trickle down”:

high general activity and improved efficiencyhigh general activity and improved efficiency

““Transport – the carpet of industry”Transport – the carpet of industry” Transport as efficiency-improving “locomotive” of the Transport as efficiency-improving “locomotive” of the

economyeconomy

InnoTranInnoTranss

Financing EU’s grand Financing EU’s grand projectsprojects• Both Delors and Tremonti plans:Both Delors and Tremonti plans:

• Finance throughFinance through EIB EIB (European Investment Bank) (European Investment Bank)

• Problem! Lack of:Problem! Lack of:1)1)National will and financial ability National will and financial ability (in member states)(in member states)

2)2)EU funding sourcesEU funding sources (ECB is disallowed from printing money AND channel them to (ECB is disallowed from printing money AND channel them to infrastructure - infrastructure - (ECB = European Central Bank)(ECB = European Central Bank)

• Therefore, use traditional Therefore, use traditional privateprivate financing: financing: BondsBonds “ “Crowding out” effect Crowding out” effect (i.e. draining and pushing out private investment)(i.e. draining and pushing out private investment)

Loose ‘spark’ from prime pumpingLoose ‘spark’ from prime pumping Loose extra growth Loose extra growth

InnoTranInnoTranss

Traditional FinanceTraditional Finance - for infrastructure and growth- for infrastructure and growth

• PublicPublicFund from tax revenueFund from tax revenue

• Mixed Private/PublicMixed Private/PublicToll stationsToll stationsLeaseLeaseBOT versions BOT versions – (Build Operate Transfer)– (Build Operate Transfer)

InnoTranInnoTranss

Mixed Innovative FinanceMixed Innovative Finance - for infrastructure and growth- for infrastructure and growth

Shared risk and profit:Shared risk and profit:

MicrofinanceMicrofinance

Islamic bankingIslamic banking

Partnerships Ltd. - since 2001Partnerships Ltd. - since 2001

++Land taxation Land taxation (Henry George etc.)(Henry George etc.)

InnoTranInnoTranss

National Innovative FinanceNational Innovative Finance - for infrastructure and growth- for infrastructure and growth

1)1)Print money (and: !!)Print money (and: !!)

2)2)Channel to Channel to productiveproductive purposespurposes- cf. Ragnar Frisch: - cf. Ragnar Frisch: The Oslo channelling modelThe Oslo channelling model

Growth without inflation Growth without inflation - due to rise in efficiency and production- due to rise in efficiency and production

InnoTranInnoTranss

ConclusionConclusion

The solutions are at hand and - The solutions are at hand and -

“ “This great enterprise will pay for itself, This great enterprise will pay for itself, and all that is required of the and all that is required of the Governments can be expressed in one Governments can be expressed in one word, and that is -- ENERGY.” word, and that is -- ENERGY.” (Friedrich List, (Friedrich List, The National System of Political EconomyThe National System of Political Economy, 1841, , 1841, p.435)p.435)

Arno Mong DaastoelArno Mong DaastoelInnoTransInnoTrans, Norway: , Norway: amd@innotrans.netamd@innotrans.net ph: +47. 6300 8590 ph: +47. 6300 8590

InnoTranInnoTranss