A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share Based on AV Profile ID Changes
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1 A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share Based on AV Profile ID Changes Presented by ERCOT Staff to the Profiling Working Group 10/26/2005
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A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share Based on AV Profile ID Changes. Presented by ERCOT Staff to the Profiling Working Group 10/26/2005. Run Test Settlements to See Effects of AV. Prepare test environment to run settlements for different scenarios - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share Based on AV Profile ID Changes
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A Review of Impacts to UFE and Load Ratio Share
Based on AV Profile ID Changes
Presented by ERCOT Staff to the
Profiling Working Group
10/26/2005
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Run Test Settlements to See Effects of AV
• Prepare test environment to run settlements for different scenarios
• Select a sample of 30 (or so) days to analyze
• Run test settlements with currently assigned Profile IDs and capture results
• In test environment, change Profile IDs as directed by the Annual Validation Process
• Run test settlements with changed Profile IDs and capture results
• Compare changes in UFE and Load Ratio Share
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Which Days to Analyze?
• Created ERCOT-wide Residential load profiles
• Weighted Weather Zone load profile by ESI ID counts
• Considered Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days
• Looked at daily kWh as a percentage of monthly kWh
• Ultimately segmented based on the following ratio:RESHIWR daily kWh / RESHIWR monthly kWh
RESLOWR daily kWh / RESLOWR monthly kWh
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Selecting Days to Analyze
Stratification of ERCOT-Wide Residential Load Profiles (HIWR daily kWh / monthly kWh) divided by (LOWR daily kWh / monthly kWh)
for October 1, 2004 thru April 30, 2005
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113 121 129 137 145 153 161 169 177 185 193 201 209
days
'HI'
/ 'L
O'
sorted by values
sorted by date
Stratum 1 Stratum 2 Stratum 3
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How do the Profile ID changes affect
UFE?
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UFE for Trade Date 12/23/04 (Stratum 3)
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95
interval
MW
h
Pre-Residential Profile ID Changes
Post-Residential Profile ID Changes
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference in UFE: 0.74
21,467 MWh
14,244 MWh
UFE for this interval: 0.68%
UFE for this interval: -0.44%
Absolute Difference = 1.12 percentage points
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UFE for Trade Date 11/16/04 (Stratum 1)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95
interval
MW
h
Pre-Residential Profile ID Changes
Post-Residential Profile ID Changes
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference in UFE: 0.17
2,801 MWh
3,975 MWh
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UFE for Trade Date 04/27/05 (Stratum 2)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95
interval
MW
h
Pre-Residential Profile ID Changes
Post-Residential Profile ID Changes
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference in UFE: 0.06
12,792 MWh
12,980 MWh
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UFE for Trade Date 02/11/05 (Stratum 3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95
interval
MW
h
Pre-Residential Profile ID Changes
Post-Residential Profile ID Changes
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference in UFE: 0.25
16,620 MWh
15,982 MWh
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Mean Abs. Percentage Point Change in UFE
post-Residential Profile ID Changes
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
11/0
7/04
11/1
6/04
11/2
6/04
12/0
5/04
12/1
1/04
03/0
7/05
03/1
3/05
03/2
0/05
03/2
1/05
04/1
1/05
10/0
1/04
10/0
2/04
10/2
1/04
10/2
5/04
11/1
1/04
12/0
4/04
03/2
3/05
03/2
6/05
04/1
6/05
04/2
7/05
11/1
3/04
12/0
3/04
12/2
2/04
12/2
3/04
01/1
7/05
02/0
1/05
02/1
1/05
03/0
3/05
03/1
4/05
mea
n ab
solu
te p
erce
ntag
e po
int c
hang
e
Stratum 1 Stratum 2 Stratum 3
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UFE in MWh
pre- and post-Residential Profile ID Changes
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
11/0
7/04
11/1
6/04
11/2
6/04
12/0
5/04
12/1
1/04
03/0
7/05
03/1
3/05
03/2
0/05
03/2
1/05
04/1
1/05
10/0
1/04
10/0
2/04
10/2
1/04
10/2
5/04
11/1
1/04
12/0
4/04
03/2
3/05
03/2
6/05
04/1
6/05
04/2
7/05
11/1
3/04
12/0
3/04
12/2
2/04
12/2
3/04
01/1
7/05
02/0
1/05
02/1
1/05
03/0
3/05
03/1
4/05
MW
h
UFE -- Pre-Residential Profile ID Changes
UFE -- Post-Residential Profile ID Changes
Stratum 1 Stratum 2 Stratum 3
Net change for days shown Stratum 1: + 9,493 MWh Stratum 2: - 732 MWh Stratum 3: - 21,756 MWh
Total: - 12,995 MWh
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How do the Profile ID changes affect
Load Ratio Share?
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Change in Load Ratio Share and MWh
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 11/16/04 (Stratum 1)
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
145 LSEs
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
MW
h
Percent
MWh
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Change in Load Ratio Share and MWh
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 04/27/05 (Stratum 2)
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
155 LSEs
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
MW
h
Percent
MWh
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Change in Load Ratio Share and MWh
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 02/11/05 (Stratum 3)
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
154 LSEs
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MW
h
Percent
MWh
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Change in Load Ratio Share and MWh
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 12/23/04 (Stratum 3)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
146 LSEs
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
MW
h
Percent
MWh
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Change in Load Ratio Share by LSE Size
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 11/16/04 (Stratum 1)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1st Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile
Total Daily MWh
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
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Change in Load Ratio Share by LSE Size
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 04/27/05 (Stratum 2)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1st Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile
Total Daily MWh
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
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Change in Load Ratio Share by LSE Size
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 02/11/05 (Stratum 3)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1st Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile
Total Daily MWh
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
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Change in Load Ratio Share by LSE Size
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 12/23/04 (Stratum 3)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1st Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile
Total Daily MWh
Me
an
Ab
solu
te D
iffe
ren
ce
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Change in Load Ratio Share for One LSE
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 11/16/04 (Stratum 1)
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour
diff
ere
nce
Mean Absolute Difference: 0.58%
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Change in Load Ratio Share for One LSE
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 04/27/05 (Stratum 2)
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour
diff
ere
nce
Mean Absolute Difference: 0.34%
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Change in Load Ratio Share for One LSE
post-Residential Profile ID changes for TD 02/11/05 (Stratum 3)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour
diff
ere
nce
Mean Absolute Difference: 1.79%
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ERCOT LP Staff’s Recommendations
Those ERCOT
guys sure seem to
know what they’re doing...
• Proceed with submission of 2005 Annual Validation Profile ID changes
• Continue PWG-sponsored efforts to improve the Profile Type assignment algorithm
• Continue consideration of shifting Profile Type calculation responsibilities to ERCOT primarily to allow use of several years worth of data in the algorithm
