UFE 2004 ANALYSIS
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1 UFE 2004 Analysis Sept 6, 2007 UFE 2004 Analysis Sept 6, 2007 UFE 2004 ANALYSIS Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
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UFE 2004 ANALYSIS. Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation. Sources of UFE include: ■ Generation Measurement Errors ■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data - Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error ■ Losses -Model Error - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of UFE 2004 ANALYSIS
1 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE 2004 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load ProfilingERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
2 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
3 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
4 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
DATA VERIFICATION IN THE SETTLEMENT PROCESS
UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial
Final
Settlement
True-Up
Initial Settlement(posted on day 10 after the operating day)
Final Settlement(posted on day 60 after the operating day)
True-up Settlement (posted 6 months after operating day)
Resettlement statement (posted as needed)
5 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Load Weighted Calculation of MCPE
Market Clearing Price for Energy (MCPE) is the highest price by Congestion Zone for a Settlement Interval for Balancing Energy deployed during the Settlement Interval.
In 2004 there were 5 congestion zones – E04, H04, N04, S04 and W04.
The load weighted MCPE is calculated for each 15 min. interval using the LCMZone cuts as follows:
MCPE_LWTD = ((LCMZone_E04_Mwh * MCPEL_E04) + (LCMZone_H04_Mwh * MCPEL_H04) +
(LCMZone_N04_Mwh * MCPEL_N04) + (LCMZone_S04_Mwh * MCPEL_S04) +
(LCMZone_W04_Mwh * MCPEL_W04)) / (LCMZone_E04_Mwh + LCMZone_H04_Mwh +
LCMZone_N04_Mwh + LCMZone_S04_Mwh + LCMZone_W04_Mwh)
6 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2004Initial Settlement
SR01
ERCOT Load and UFE 2004 Peak Day - August 3, 2004Initial Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
7 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2004Final Settlement
SR02
ERCOT Load and UFE 2004 Peak Day - August 3, 2004Final Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
8 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2004True Up Settlement
SR03
ERCOT Load and UFE 2004 Peak Day - August 3, 2004True Up Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
9 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE MWh by Month Initial Settlement
SR04
UFE MWh by Month - Initial Settlement
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 591,164 MWhABS Annual UFE = 5,320,125 MWh
10 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Cost by Month Initial Settlement
SR05
UFE Cost by Month - Initial Settlement
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llars
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $80,080,903ABS Annual UFE Cost = $241,965,480
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
11 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE MWh by Month Final Settlement
SR06
UFE MWh by Month - Final Settlement
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,141,528 MWhABS Annual UFE = 4,830,867 MWh
12 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Cost by Month Final Settlement
SR07
UFE Cost by Month - Final Settlement
0
2,500,000
5,000,000
7,500,000
10,000,000
12,500,000
15,000,000
17,500,000
20,000,000
22,500,000
25,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llars
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $94,650,269ABS Annual UFE Cost = $221,235,444
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
13 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE MWh by Month True-Up Settlement
SR08
UFE MWh by Month - True-Up Settlement
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,344,289 MWhABS Annual UFE = 4,837,727 MWh
14 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Cost by Month True-UP Settlement
SR09
UFE Cost by Month - True-Up Settlement
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llars
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $102,693,690ABS Annual UFE Cost = $222,390,241
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
15 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
ABS UFE Mwh by Month Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
SR09a
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Initial Final True Up
ABS UFE Mwh by Month - Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
16 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Cost by Month Initial, Final and True-UP Settlements
SR09b
UFE Cost by Month - Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llars
Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
17 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR10
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703
2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992
2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528
2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233
2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531
2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248
2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531
TRUE-UP
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
INITIAL
FINAL
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
18 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673
2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798
2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559
2002 -1,593 -1,575 -5,954 3,427
2003 -14 -126 -3,172 3,728
2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302
2002 -461 -556 -3,371 3,803
2003 191 71 -2,886 4,065
2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299
UFE (MW)
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
TRUE-UP
SR11a
19 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR11b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969
2003 857 759 0 3,906
2004 606 472 0 4,559
2002 1,666 1,579 0 5,654
2003 711 603 0 3,728
2004 550 414 0 4,302
2002 838 771 0 3,803
2003 672 528 0 4,065
2004 551 413 0 4,299
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
TRUE-UP
|UFE| (MW)
FINAL
INITIAL
20 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR12a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8
2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9
2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5
2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1
2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1
TRUE-UP
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
21 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR12b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1
2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9
2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6
2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
INITIAL
TRUE-UP
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
FINAL
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
22 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR13a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652
2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563
2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173
2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621
2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969
2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143
2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970
2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
23 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR13b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652
2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563
2002 5,664 3,579 0.2 580,173
2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621
2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969
2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143
2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970
2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849
FINAL
|UFE Cost| ($)
INITIAL
|UFE Cost| ($)
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
|UFE Cost| ($)
TRUE-UP
24 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR14a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9
2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0
2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1
2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
25 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2004
SR14b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9
2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4
2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
26 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
SR15
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,748 29,610 20,478 42,702 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,233 29,941 20,602 42,292
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,752 29,616 20,482 42,702 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,238 29,947 20,602 42,300
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,752 29,616 20,482 42,698 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,238 29,947 20,602 42,301
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,081 28,180 20,535 34,202 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,366 28,937 20,561 39,131
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,134 28,243 20,535 34,321 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,376 28,955 20,565 39,131
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,134 28,243 20,535 34,321 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,376 28,955 20,565 39,131
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,188 32,832 20,231 48,701 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,155 36,961 25,182 54,058
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,189 32,832 20,231 48,701 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,157 36,961 25,182 54,060
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,189 32,832 20,231 48,702 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,162 36,962 25,183 54,061
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
27 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR16
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,388 40,688 26,848 56,488 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,996 39,591 24,975 58,528
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,391 40,688 26,849 56,489 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,999 39,594 24,978 58,531
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,391 40,688 26,849 56,489 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,999 39,594 24,978 58,531
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,098 36,985 24,197 55,176 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,806 32,639 21,257 47,714
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,103 36,988 24,197 55,179 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,807 32,643 21,260 47,714
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 37,103 36,988 24,197 55,179 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,807 32,643 21,260 47,714
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,876 28,545 20,687 37,599 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,760 30,275 21,396 44,007
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,878 28,548 20,690 37,599 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,762 30,277 21,399 44,010
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 27,878 28,548 20,690 37,599 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,763 30,278 21,399 44,010
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
28 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR17
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 163 9 -1,941 4,559 UFE (MW) 120 66 -2,004 2,326FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 43 -181 -1,816 4,302 UFE (MW) 288 229 -1,465 2,290TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 77 -128 -1,800 4,299 UFE (MW) 337 279 -1,430 2,341
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) -361 -341 -1,864 1,676 UFE (MW) -133 -107 -2,766 1,647FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 52 53 -1,321 1,882 UFE (MW) 23 19 -1,973 1,968TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 115 114 -1,252 1,955 UFE (MW) 60 57 -1,927 2,026
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 410 333 -1,606 2,905 UFE (MW) -325 -345 -4,558 2,249FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 188 101 -1,702 2,442 UFE (MW) -92 -137 -3,929 2,406TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 216 128 -1,670 2,468 UFE (MW) -59 -105 -3,879 2,427
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
29 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR18
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 263 222 -2,549 2,783 UFE (MW) 158 42 -2,091 2,915FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 98 61 -2,348 2,296 UFE (MW) 186 41 -1,859 2,905TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 107 72 -2,328 2,293 UFE (MW) 185 45 -1,836 2,906
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 6 -204 -1,658 2,959 UFE (MW) 4 -84 -1,322 2,172FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 61 -166 -1,571 2,577 UFE (MW) 156 106 -1,201 2,280TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 76 -155 -1,557 2,598 UFE (MW) 164 115 -1,192 2,289
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 161 167 -1,511 2,773 UFE (MW) 326 302 -2,865 2,761FINAL FINAL
UFE (MW) 222 211 -1,597 2,433 UFE (MW) 333 234 -2,366 3,508TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
UFE (MW) 220 209 -1,599 2,431 UFE (MW) 340 239 -2,361 3,521
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
30 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR19
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 735 594 0 4,559 |UFE| (MW) 662 581 0 2,326FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 711 610 0 4,302 |UFE| (MW) 623 525 0 2,290TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 697 575 1 4,299 |UFE| (MW) 636 529 0 2,341
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 489 408 0 1,864 |UFE| (MW) 401 301 1 2,766FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 324 281 0 1,882 |UFE| (MW) 362 278 0 1,973TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 333 289 0 1,955 |UFE| (MW) 367 281 0 2,026
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 637 477 0 2,905 |UFE| (MW) 729 543 0 4,558FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 538 402 0 2,442 |UFE| (MW) 643 454 0 3,929TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 542 398 0 2,468 |UFE| (MW) 640 447 0 3,879
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
31 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR20
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 595 461 0 2,783 |UFE| (MW) 750 633 2 2,915FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 523 411 0 2,348 |UFE| (MW) 705 575 0 2,905TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 523 409 0 2,328 |UFE| (MW) 700 569 0 2,906
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 640 508 0 2,959 |UFE| (MW) 436 337 0 2,172FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 603 448 0 2,577 |UFE| (MW) 431 321 0 2,280TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 601 441 0 2,598 |UFE| (MW) 434 322 0 2,289
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 451 353 0 2,773 |UFE| (MW) 741 614 0 2,865FINAL FINAL
|UFE| (MW) 447 357 0 2,433 |UFE| (MW) 689 518 0 3,508TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE| (MW) 445 355 0 2,431 |UFE| (MW) 691 518 0 3,521
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
32 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
0.4 0.0 -7.5 13.9UFE as Percent of Load
0.3 0.2 -6.8 7.0
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
0.0 -0.6 -6.7 13.1UFE as Percent of Load
0.9 0.8 -5.5 7.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.1 -0.4 -6.6 13.1UFE as Percent of Load
1.1 1.0 -5.3 7.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
-1.3 -1.3 -6.6 5.1UFE as Percent of Load
-0.5 -0.4 -11.0 4.7
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
0.2 0.2 -4.4 5.7UFE as Percent of Load
0.1 0.1 -7.9 5.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.5 0.4 -4.2 5.9UFE as Percent of Load
0.2 0.2 -7.7 6.0
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
1.1 1.1 -6.2 7.9UFE as Percent of Load
-1.0 -1.0 -11.5 4.8
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
0.5 0.3 -6.0 8.0UFE as Percent of Load
-0.4 -0.4 -9.9 5.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.6 0.4 -5.9 8.0UFE as Percent of Load
-0.3 -0.3 -9.8 5.4
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
33 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
0.5 0.6 -6.3 5.9UFE as Percent of Load
0.2 0.1 -5.7 6.8
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
0.1 0.2 -5.8 4.9UFE as Percent of Load
0.3 0.1 -5.0 6.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.1 0.2 -5.8 4.9UFE as Percent of Load
0.3 0.1 -5.0 6.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
-0.2 -0.6 -4.9 6.4UFE as Percent of Load
-0.1 -0.3 -4.7 6.8
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
-0.1 -0.5 -4.8 5.5UFE as Percent of Load
0.4 0.3 -3.5 6.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.0 -0.5 -4.8 5.6UFE as Percent of Load
0.4 0.4 -3.5 6.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as Percent of Load
0.7 0.6 -5.8 8.9UFE as Percent of Load
1.0 1.0 -10.7 7.7
FINAL FINALUFE as Percent of Load
0.9 0.8 -6.1 9.2UFE as Percent of Load
1.0 0.8 -8.8 8.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as Percent of Load
0.9 0.8 -6.1 9.2UFE as Percent of Load
1.0 0.8 -8.8 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
34 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.5 2.1 0.0 13.9|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.2 2.0 0.0 7.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.4 2.1 0.0 13.1|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.0 1.8 0.0 7.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.3 2.0 0.0 13.1|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.1 1.8 0.0 7.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.8 1.5 0.0 6.6|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.4 1.1 0.0 11.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.2 1.1 0.0 5.7|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 7.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.2 1.1 0.0 5.9|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 7.7
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.9 1.5 0.0 7.9|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.0 1.5 0.0 11.5
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.0|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.0|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.8
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
35 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.4 1.2 0.0 6.3|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.9 1.7 0.0 6.8
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 5.8|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 5.8|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.4|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.1 0.0 6.8
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 5.5|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 6.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 5.6|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.3 1.0 0.0 6.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.9|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.4 2.1 0.0 10.7
FINAL FINAL|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.2|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.2 1.7 0.0 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as Percent of Load|
1.6 1.3 0.0 9.2|UFE as Percent of Load|
2.2 1.7 0.0 8.8
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
36 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR25
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 3,000 98 -19,403 147,703 UFE Cost ($) 1,875 429 -15,855 51,818FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 1,733 -1,024 -20,524 134,897 UFE Cost ($) 3,126 1,797 -16,862 50,236
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 2,009 -732 -24,178 137,970 UFE Cost ($) 3,533 2,210 -16,065 51,529
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) -3,206 -2,443 -29,792 23,276 UFE Cost ($) -687 -895 -31,390 91,759FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 570 402 -16,998 26,280 UFE Cost ($) 864 186 -14,556 85,182
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 1,151 858 -16,056 27,272 UFE Cost ($) 1,265 520 -14,158 88,326
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 6,320 2,756 -22,505 200,563 UFE Cost ($) -1,293 -2,649 -59,996 118,860FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 3,652 737 -21,388 164,969 UFE Cost ($) 1,450 -980 -52,411 132,453
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,957 949 -21,011 168,849 UFE Cost ($) 1,840 -744 -51,690 133,695
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
37 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR26
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 4,197 2,049 -19,725 41,342 UFE Cost ($) 3,668 408 -28,256 101,959FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 2,228 518 -19,295 34,107 UFE Cost ($) 3,696 369 -25,881 101,608
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 2,318 634 -19,123 34,062 UFE Cost ($) 3,675 370 -25,190 101,642
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 3,031 -1,465 -16,980 161,454 UFE Cost ($) 1,868 -581 -21,577 121,421FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 3,517 -1,213 -16,753 147,117 UFE Cost ($) 3,178 869 -23,487 124,587
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,678 -1,133 -16,442 147,440 UFE Cost ($) 3,295 928 -23,248 125,375
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 2,613 1,177 -76,418 175,465 UFE Cost ($) 5,759 2,119 -21,325 190,753FINAL FINAL
UFE Cost ($) 2,866 1,548 -92,510 130,075 UFE Cost ($) 5,402 1,421 -33,080 149,512
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 2,842 1,509 -92,408 130,327 UFE Cost ($) 5,479 1,476 -32,713 150,573
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
38 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR27
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 6,989 3,998 0 147,703 |UFE COST| ($) 5,461 4,019 3 51,818FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 6,638 4,542 1 134,897 |UFE COST| ($) 5,379 3,777 2 50,236TRUE_UP TRUE_UP
|UFE COST| ($) 6,546 4,264 4 137,970 |UFE COST| ($) 5,529 3,821 0 51,529
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 4,490 3,380 2 29,792 |UFE COST| ($) 4,429 2,910 4 91,759FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 3,019 2,272 0 26,280 |UFE COST| ($) 4,115 2,779 3 85,182
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 3,096 2,269 0 27,272 |UFE COST| ($) 4,192 2,853 1 88,326
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 8,148 4,356 0 200,563 |UFE COST| ($) 8,613 5,428 0 118,860FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 6,565 3,637 1 164,969 |UFE COST| ($) 8,158 4,497 0 132,453
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 6,659 3,622 0 168,849 |UFE COST| ($) 8,209 4,446 0 133,695
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
39 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR28
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 6,890 4,509 2 41,342 |UFE COST| ($) 8,555 5,580 8 101,959FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 5,908 4,073 2 34,107 |UFE COST| ($) 8,194 5,204 1 101,608
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 5,918 4,060 1 34,062 |UFE COST| ($) 8,156 5,150 2 101,642
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 7,972 4,141 0 161,454 |UFE COST| ($) 6,310 3,592 1 121,421FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 7,771 3,696 1 147,117 |UFE COST| ($) 6,429 3,322 0 124,587
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 7,786 3,653 0 147,440 |UFE COST| ($) 6,476 3,359 0 125,375
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 5,785 3,048 4 175,465 |UFE COST| ($) 8,878 4,847 2 190,753FINAL FINAL
|UFE COST| ($) 5,235 3,003 5 130,075 |UFE COST| ($) 8,088 3,889 4 149,512
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 5,212 2,976 1 130,327 |UFE COST| ($) 8,123 3,905 2 150,573
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
40 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR29
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.0 -7.5 13.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.3 0.2 -6.8 7.0
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.0 -0.6 -6.7 13.1UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.9 0.8 -5.5 7.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.2 -0.4 -6.6 13.1UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.1 1.0 -5.3 7.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-1.3 -1.3 -6.6 5.1UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.5 -0.4 -11.0 4.7
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.2 0.2 -4.4 5.7UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.1 0.1 -7.9 5.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.5 0.4 -4.2 5.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.2 0.2 -7.7 6.0
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.1 1.1 -6.2 7.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-1.0 -1.0 -11.5 4.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.5 0.3 -6.0 8.0UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.4 -0.4 -9.9 5.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.6 0.4 -5.9 8.0UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.3 -0.3 -9.8 5.4
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
41 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR30
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.5 0.6 -6.3 5.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.2 0.1 -5.7 6.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.1 0.2 -5.8 4.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.3 0.1 -5.0 6.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.1 0.2 -5.8 4.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.3 0.1 -5.0 6.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.2 -0.6 -4.9 6.4UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.1 -0.3 -4.7 6.8
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.1 -0.5 -4.8 5.5UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.4 -3.5 6.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.0 -0.5 -4.8 5.6UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.4 -3.5 6.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.7 0.6 -5.8 8.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.0 1.0 -10.7 7.7
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.9 0.8 -6.1 9.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.0 0.8 -8.8 8.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.9 0.8 -6.1 9.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.0 0.8 -8.8 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
42 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR31
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.5 2.1 0.0 13.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.2 2.0 0.0 7.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.4 2.1 0.0 13.1|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.0 1.8 0.0 7.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.3 2.0 0.0 13.1|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.1 1.8 0.0 7.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.8 1.5 0.0 6.6|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.1 0.0 11.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.2 1.1 0.0 5.7|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.0 0.0 7.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.2 1.1 0.0 5.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.0 0.0 7.7
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.5 0.0 7.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.0 1.5 0.0 11.5
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.0|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.0|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.8
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
43 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SR32
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.2 0.0 6.3|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.7 0.0 6.8
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.0 0.0 5.8|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.0 0.0 5.8|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.4|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.1 0.0 6.8
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 5.5|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.0 0.0 6.6
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 5.6|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.1 0.0 6.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 8.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.4 2.1 0.0 10.7
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.3 0.0 9.2|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.2 1.7 0.0 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 9.2|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.2 1.7 0.0 8.8
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2004
44 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFD01
Percent Distribution of Total UFE (MW) Initial to Final - 2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UFE (MW)
Per
cen
t o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Val
ues
Initial Final
45 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFD02
Percent Distribution of Total UFE (MW) Final to True-Up - 2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UFE (MW)
Per
cen
t o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Val
ues
Final True Up
46 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
2004 Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD03
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Initial Final True-Up
47 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load – Initial Settlement95% Confidence Interval
CIP01
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2004
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
48 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
CIP02
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load – Final Settlement95% Confidence Interval
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2004
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
49 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
CIP03
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load – True-Up95% Confidence Interval
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2004
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
50 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
CIP04
Comparison of MediansWith 95% Confidence Interval
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Day of the Week 2004
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Initial Final True Up
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
51 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2004UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA01
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
52 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2004UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA02
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
53 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2004UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA03
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
54 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2004UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA04
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
55 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SEA05
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
56 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SEA06
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
57 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SEA07
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
58 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadInitial Settlement - 2004
MPL01
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Per
cen
t U
FE
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
59 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadFinal Settlement - 2004
MPL02
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Per
cen
t U
FE
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
60 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadTrue-Up Settlement - 2004
MPL03
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Per
cen
t U
FE
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
61 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Comparison of Median Percent UFEInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2004
MPL04
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Per
cen
t U
FE
Initial Final True Up
62 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs LoadInitial Settlement - 2004
MPL05
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
63 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load Final Settlement - 2004
MPL06
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
64 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load True Up Settlement - 2004
MPL07
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
65 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load for Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2004
MPL08
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Initial Final True Up
66 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Initial Settlement - 2004
MPL09
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
-11.0 -8.0 -5.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 10.0 13.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
67 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
MPL10
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Final Settlement - 2004
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
-10.0 -7.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
Profile Model Error - Day after Thanksgiving
68 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
MPL11
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE True-Up Settlement - 2004
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
-10.0 -7.0 -4.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
Profile Model Error - Day after Thanksgiving
69 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE forInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2004
MPL12
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Initial Final True UP
Profile Model Error - Day after Thanksgiving
70 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week 2004
UCT02
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
71 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week 2004
UCT03
-400,000
-350,000
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
Hour of the Week
Do
llars
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
72 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT04
Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week 2004
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
73 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week 2004
UCT05
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
74 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT06
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
75 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2004Positive and Negative UFE
UCT07
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
76 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT08
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
77 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT09
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
78 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT10
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
79 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT11
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
80 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT12
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
81 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT13
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
82 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT14
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
83 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT15
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2004 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
84 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Dol
lars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UCT16
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
85 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT17
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
86 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT18
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
87 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT19
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
88 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT20
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2004Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
89 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2004 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UCT21
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
90 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT22
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
91 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT23
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
92 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT24
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2004 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
93 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
UCT25
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2004Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
94 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Annual validation 2003 was completed in late 2003 to early 2004
31% - 1.5 million residential migrations out of 4.9 million residential ESIIDs
PRR 471 – NIDR to IDR Default Profile Scaling Improved the profiling estimates used for data
aggregation and settlements
Implemented November 3, 2004.
Events that Influenced UFE in 2004
95 UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007UFE 2004 AnalysisSept 6, 2007
Improve Business Profile ID assignment process Improve models using Round 2 load research
data Increase the number of IDR’s Leverage AMI capability by increased use of TOU
metering and more frequent meter reads Evaluate Lagged Dynamic sampling techniques
and their application to the ERCOT System Continue to evaluate improvements to algorithms
for missing IDR and NIDR data estimation Continue to make improvements to loss
estimations – updated TDSP loss studies.
Next Steps
