A Nowcasting Project for Lake Victoria. Acknowledgement Caroline Bain of UKMO Estelle de Coning of...
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Transcript of A Nowcasting Project for Lake Victoria. Acknowledgement Caroline Bain of UKMO Estelle de Coning of...
A Nowcasting Project for Lake Victoria
Acknowledgement
• Caroline Bain of UKMO• Estelle de Coning of SAWS• Brian Golding of UKMO/WMO• Steve Goodman of NOAA• Marianne Koenig of EUMETSAT• Jeannette Onvlee of KNMI• Rita Roberts of NCAR• Fred Semazzi of UNCSU• Alice Soares, SWFDP• Jim Wilson of NCAR• Many others…
WCRP HyVIC
SWFDP
Outline
• The Challenge/Gap• What we have/know at this point• The Lake Victoria Project
Proposal/Concept– Field Project, – Nowcasting System, – Implementation within SWFDP– Capacity Building
• Status/Next Steps
“WMO Executive Council (EC) recommended that a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project be considered for the Lake Victoria Watershed that would include a test-bed for field campaigns to collect data for research to understand the dynamics over the lake in order to reduce disaster from water spouts, waves, and wind gusts that affect both lake transport and fishermen who rely on the lake for their livelihoods. The EC further noted the potential linkages with the SWFDP for Eastern Africa."
WMO Executive Council charge to WWRP
EC 2010
Golden Age of Weather Satellites
Gap in SWFDP
WWRP Charge to WGNR
“Nowcasting system for Developing Countries”
Global/Regional Observations
•Satellite, Lightning, NWP
•Exploit local data as available
•“Radar-less / optional”
Organic Interest..
• EUMETSAT
• UKMO
• THORPEX HIW
• HyVic (WCRP)
• SERVIR (US Aid)
• …
Overview of what we know about the problem
Semazzi, HyVic Science PlanReports of many deaths!
Wind, Wave and Storms are The Significant Navigation Hazards
The terrain is complex and near the equator…
200km
Lake Victoria
Weak dynamics -:> local influences dominate
Night vs Day
The Lake Surface Temperature may play a role in initiation of thunderstorms
Due to the weak dynamics in the tropics, subtle surface features will have a significant impact on convective initiation. Intra-lake breezes may form.
VIIRS Temperature, W. StrakaClimate Model, Semazzi
Lake Circulations are complex
From Semazzi Report, Annex2
Climate modeling of the lake currents show a complex pattern of the “mean circulation”.
Thunderstorm downdrafts interact with this circulation to create hazardous waves and lake conditions.
The Lake Victoria Project Proposal
»The Nowcast System»The SWFDP»The Field Project»Capacity Building
Objectives of WWRP LVP
1. Develop a scientific field project to understand the dynamics of the lake and severe thunderstorms
2. Capacity build to establish a research and operational legacy,
3. Develop a prototype sustainable nowcasting system for East Africa, particularly over the Lake
4. Implementation of the nowcasting system within the context of the existing Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project
5. Verification and validation of the nowcasts using the field project.
Note: Within SWFDP, WWRP Verification and SERA are already part of that funded project
1. Capacity Building
Understanding is not enough, must create a legacy!
Legacy via Capacity Building
Training of Highly Qualified Personnel
•Researchers (DCFDP)
•Nowcasters
•Analysts
•Technical
•Fellowships
•Engage within Product Development
•Nowcasting Workshops
•Technical Workshops
•Other
2. SWFDP and Nowcasting
SWFDP is there now!Established a path!
Regional collaboration/cascading model is the key component to sustainability!
Warning Services for Hazardous Weather
• Watch (VSRF)– potential or imminent threat of
hazardous weather
– Prepare for hazardous weather
• Warning (0-2 hours)– danger of hazardous weather– TAKE ACTION!– Save Lives!– Precision in space (km) and
time (minutes)
Service Impacts
•hazard thresholds
•Smaller regions
•“as needed” warnings,
•Nowcasters needed (prediction / decision-making cultural change)
•Real-time data and dissemination (MWA)
•“Action statements” – vacate region ABC
•“cry wolf syndrome” impacts authoritative voice
3. The Envisioned Nowcasting System
SatelliteLightning
UKMO 4km Model(Radar, Surface, Upper Air)
No Radar = NEW CHALLENGE for
WGNR!
Satellite Products
Lightning
Regional NWP
A Nowcast System for Lake Victoria!
MSG + NWP = Regional Instability
Satelliie Instability -> LightningLong Range Lightning Network
The Tip of the Iceberg
22
Bill
Bur
row
s of
EC
Lightning Forecasts
NWP Lightning Forecast
Lightning Data
The UKMO 4 km Model
Global UM
4km UM
4th March 2012: Storm over Lake Victoria caused the deaths of 2 fishermen when a boat capsized
The Global UM showed some indication of the event in T+6 forecast
The 4km UM showed increased indication of the storm in T+6 forecast
Lake VictoriaValidation of model: Case study 4th March 2012
Caroline Bain
4. The Field Project
•Meteorological Understanding
•Scientific Validation
•Statistical VerificationSee Science Project Overview by Wilson/Roberts
2x 40 page documents (Science Project/Expt Design)
What we don’t know…
• Which thunderstorms produce hazardous winds • Relationship of Overshooting Tops and Surface
Hazardous winds• Mechanism of producing strong winds from
thunderstorms • Relationship between wind and waves• Once we understand, how to identify and predict and
“not cry wolf”• What skill is achievable without radar? Accuracy and
precision?• Need to validate satellite/NWP/Lightning predictions
Field Project Proposal to NSFRed Stars – surveillance radar
White Stars – hi res radar, dual-doppler
Blue Star 6 – IOS
Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station
Yellow – Met Stns
High Sensitivity S Pol Radar dual-pol Doppler radar is needed to monitor the clear air boundaries that initiate convection, the descending downdraft core that generates the strong downdraft winds and then the hazardous surface winds
NSF Request
Hi-Resolution dual-doppler radars
NSF/Non-NSF Request
Frequent and localized soundings are required to monitor both the updraft and downdraft environments.
NSF Request
Integrated Observing SystemFrequent Soundings
Wind ProfilerRadiometerRASS for temperatureCeilometerSurface Met ObsSoundings
NSF Request
Water Vapor DIAL Lidar
Measures humidity profiles to determine the nature of the dry layers that drive the production of hazardous winds
Non-NSF Request
Buoys are needed for monitoring the lake conditions
Non-NSF Request
Facilities requested to National Science Foundation due to long lead time required in Jan 2013.
Very Positive Feedback from NSF for 2016 but need non-NSF funding ($8M) for equipment, operating, capacity building, project office, analysis, etc
Non-NSF•C Band MIT/LL •SMART R’s•Radiosonde (3)•Dial Lidar (2)•GPS/GNSS•Wind Profilers (2)•Surface Stations (?)•Doppler Lidar (2)•Total Lightning (LMA)•Satellite•Buoys/Boats
NSF • S-POL Radar• DOWS• Integrated
Sounding Sys• Radionsonde• Surface Stations
NSF Reviewer Comment…
It is about $1M to deploy S-POL…. buy a commercial radar? Maybe easier to get funding for this rather than science.
The technology is “low lying” fruit. Increases project scope but need to have a significant “technical capacity building” component for legacy. Better support Climate/WCRP project.
Implementation Strategy
Normal Technology Transfer in Program Mode
Understanding Prototype Demonstration Implementation
Field Project Concepts System Development Operations
Papers Verification/Impact
Capacity Build
Lengthy Process and “valley of death” gaps in technology transfer
Technology Transfer Project Mode
Understanding
Inception
Sat Demonstration
Implementation
Capacity and Forecast System Build
2016
2018
2014
NWP Demonstration
No Gaps!Engagement of users
Status
• Plan presented to East African Community at Arusha SWFDP Meeting (May 2013)
• Local Champions Identified as Chair and Vice-Chair of EAC
• Complete Details of Plan/Linkages– ownership of plan by EA
• Need to fund/request funding HyVIC
Reading Meeting Today
Thanks to Caroline Bain
Funding ….
How do we get connected here? Who?
Donors/Stakeholders: African Development Bank, the Embassy of Japan, the Embassy of Belgium, NORAD, USAID, IFAD, UNEP, PACKARD Foundation, the World Meteorological Organisation, the International Finance Corporation, the French Development Agency, DfID, FAO, European Union, and SNV.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201306191431.html
Email from Bruce Angle
EU Proposal (25M€) Funded?
LVBC Feasibility Study 2011 (Semazzi)
18 page document based on LVBC Feasibility
Summary
• Early Days
• Have “Local Champion”
• Still in conceptualization/formulation phase– Think Big!– Need to learn about cultural issues– Overcome constraints
• Too early to begin to challenge process
• Never too early to explore funding
Thank You