A model study on satellite observed tropical tropospheric ozone columns Model results and satellite...
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Transcript of A model study on satellite observed tropical tropospheric ozone columns Model results and satellite...
A model study on satellite A model study on satellite observed tropical observed tropical
tropospheric ozone tropospheric ozone columnscolumns
Model results and satellite Model results and satellite observations: How can we observations: How can we optimally confront them?optimally confront them?
W. Peters, M.C. Krol, F.J. Dentener, A.M. Thompson and J. Lelieveld
Message:Message:
A A quantitativequantitative approach is necessary. approach is necessary. This requires a careful evaluation of This requires a careful evaluation of
modeling strategiesmodeling strategies..
Satellite observations:Satellite observations:
1979-1992 Modified-Residual TTOC (2x1, monthly mean)1979-1992 Modified-Residual TTOC (2x1, monthly mean)
ModelModel1979-1993 off-line meteo (ECMWF) (5x4, monthly mean)1979-1993 off-line meteo (ECMWF) (5x4, monthly mean)
Atlantic ~40 DU
Atlantic ~60 DUPacific ~15 DU
Pacific ~15 DU Pacific ~15 DU
Pacific ~15 DU
Zonal wave one (zwo): Zonal wave one (zwo): Pacific fit, Pacific fit, Atlantic mismatchAtlantic mismatch
QuantitativeQuantitative measure of error: measure of error:
11 = correlation{zwo= correlation{zwotm3tm3,zwo,zwoobsobs}}
22 = RMS {zwo= RMS {zwotm3tm3,zwo,zwoobsobs} / } / obsobs
latit. avg. (Sept ‘92)
Observations+Model
Quantify discrepancies: Quantify discrepancies: 22
l.
tim
e
Atl. Atl.Pac. Pac. Pac. Pac.
Sensitivities and PrioritiesSensitivities and Priorities
• Biomass burning injection heightBiomass burning injection height• Biomass burning fire calendarBiomass burning fire calendar• Lightning NOx emission yearly totalLightning NOx emission yearly total• Lightning NOx emissions distributionLightning NOx emissions distribution• Biomass burning emission factors (NOx)Biomass burning emission factors (NOx)• Lightning NOx emission profilesLightning NOx emission profiles• ……• ……
Sensitivities and PrioritiesSensitivities and Priorities
Base run:Base run:
1992 meteo1992 meteo
1992 emissions1992 emissions
1992 MR-TTOC1992 MR-TTOC
Pacific = 90E to 90WPacific = 90E to 90W
Atlantic = 90W to 90EAtlantic = 90W to 90E0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
2x NOxfrom biomass
burning
2x J(HNO3)in free
troposphere
New firecalendar from
fire counts
5 DU reduction of observations
Recommendations:Recommendations:
Quantify results (despite uncertainties)Quantify results (despite uncertainties) Tailor strategies:Tailor strategies:
Interact with satellite retrieval communityInteract with satellite retrieval community Anticipate ongoing retrieval developments Anticipate ongoing retrieval developments
Peters et. al. (2002), Chemistry-transport modeling of the satellite observed distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone, Atm. Chem. Phys. Vol 2, p 103-120.
http://www.copernicus.org/EGS/acp
ResultsResults Quantification of transport influenceQuantification of transport influence Priority list for model improvementsPriority list for model improvements Detailed list of model sensitivitiesDetailed list of model sensitivities Suggested improvements in MR-retrievalSuggested improvements in MR-retrieval Insights in feasibility of inversionsInsights in feasibility of inversions Experience in model-satellite combinationExperience in model-satellite combination
Sensitivities and DirectionsSensitivities and Directions
Lightning param.Lightning param.
Land/Ocean ratioLand/Ocean ratio
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
Sensitivities and DirectionsSensitivities and Directions
Biomass burningBiomass burning
Double HNO3 photolysisDouble HNO3 photolysis
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
Sensitivities and DirectionsSensitivities and Directions
Biomass burningBiomass burning
New fire calendarNew fire calendar
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
Sensitivities and DirectionsSensitivities and Directions
Lightning param.Lightning param.
Double NOxDouble NOx
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
mid-latitudes
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
Sensitivities and DirectionsSensitivities and Directions
Satellite dataSatellite data
5 DU reduction5 DU reduction
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
e1 e2 (Pac) e2 (Atl)
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
Sensitivities / DirectionsSensitivities / Directions
Threshold for better than 10% random 2 = 0.01
Importance of transportImportance of transport
Actual yearAverage
El Niño
Threshold for better than 10% random= 0.001