A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Results from the April 2012 National Survey

May 2012

May 2012

A Major Shift in the Political LandscapeResults from the April 2012 National Survey

May 2012

Methodology

National Survey– April 2 – 20, 2012

– 2,000 national face-to-face interviews: 500 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and North – national results weighted representatively

– Margin of error +/- 2.2 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on regional samples; +/- 2.9 on total Non-North sample

May 2012

Shift in Country Mood Benefits Maliki

May 2012

A significant positive shift in the country mood

Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120

20

40

60

45

4141

37

48

44

50 50 50

44

Right direction Wrong direction

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

U.S. Withdrawal

May 2012

Only North sees a drop in right direction

Total Baghdad South West North0

20

40

60

80

48 50

65

3526

4435 32

5864

Right Wrong

∆ fromOct ’11 +11 -6 +1 +5 +23 -20 +19 -10 -21 +24

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

May 2012

Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood


20

40

60

46

3433

52

38

5549

34

Strong Weak

Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak?

May 2012

Positive mood brings significant jump in Maliki job approval


20

40

60

4040

39

34

5354 54 5358

44

Approve Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?

U.S. Withdrawal

May 2012

T B S N INA Da'Sad ISC

0

20

40

60

80

100

53 57

83

30

1017

99

75 72

44 39

16

64

8780

1

23 28

Approve Disapprove∆ approve Oct. ’11 +19 +12 +34 +11 +1 +11 +7 +32 +14

Maliki job approval up across regions and voter groups

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?

May 2012

Significant jump in Maliki favorable ratings

Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-120

20

40

60

4134 34 31

4547 47 51 49

41

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

U.S. Withdrawal

May 2012

Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Kurd-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

45 5473

21 3

66

14 5

41

35 17

5878

23 67

76

% Favorable % UnfavorableΔ favorable Oct ’11 +14 +13 +28 +4 -1 +20 +12 -3

Maliki favorability dramatically improves among base

May 2012

Maliki has strongest rating of non-north pols | Non-North

Maliki Sadr Jaafari Hakim Allawi Nujaifi Amiri Mahdi Hashemi Mutlaq-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

52 4833 32 31 24 13 17 18 17

35 3348 48 57 50 53 59

72 73


Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NON-NORTH ONLY)

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +7 +7 +8 -2 +6 N/A -5* +2 -1

* Last asked in November 2010

May 2012

Maliki improves across all issues; outperforms Da’wa vote

Helping the poor

Cares about people like you

Acting like a dictator

Can unite Iraq

Can bring political stability

Creating jobs

Fights corruption

More interested in power than helping

Can end sectarianism

Improving basic services

Improving security

0 20 40 60 80 100

22222729303232343739

49

10102

75463

53

3

2319

217

121516

51412

8

2628

4726

3424

3138

232516

1921222119

2515

202121

24

Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-NORTH ONLY)

∆ Maliki Jul ’11+22+20

+11

N/A+15+13

+14

+5

N/A

+8

+9

∆ Allawi Jul ’11

-6-6

-8

N/A-10-5

-6

-7

N/A

-6

-4

Da’wa non-North vote: 26% INA non-North vote: 14%

May 2012

Iraqis looking for a strong leader, despite drawbacks


Kurd0

20

40

60

80

100

74 7380 82

45

77 83

48

14 16 138

2815 7 23

Statement 1: It is more important to have a strong leader to keep Iraq stable, even if that means giving up some freedoms.

Statement 2: It is more important to ensure social and political freedoms in Iraq, even if that means some instability.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

May 2012

More want to continue with Maliki’s direction

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-120

20

40

60

28

39

5347

I want to continue in the direction Nouri al-Maliki is taking Iraq. I want to go in a very different direction than Nouri al-Maliki is taking Iraq.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

May 2012

Significant increase in Da’wa support


10

20

30

22 20 21

1412

22

16 1816

22

8 910

10 10

6 57 6

4

6 88

13 11

Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

U.S. Withdrawal

May 2012

Da'wa INA Sadr IFND ISCI NRT (No vote)

(Und/ref)0

10

20

30

22

1210

5 42

1311

30

12 12

6 6

20

10

Da’wa’s growth even stronger among likely votersPlace a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ likely votersOct ’11 +8 -1 -1 -2 -2 -- -- --

May 2012

Da’wa separates from other parties in South, Baghdad

Baghdad South West0

10

20

30

40

27

38

9

16

6

23

13 15

59

51

21

16

Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ Oct. ’11 +4 -4 -- +1 -1 +15 -3 -3 -3 +1 -- -- +2 -1 -1

May 2012

Majority continues to want new parliamentary elections

Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-120

20

40

60

80

6258

64

21 24 22

Support Oppose

As you may know, some people have proposed holding early parliamentary elections to solve the current political instability. Do you support or oppose holding new parliamentary elections in the near future?*

*Before April 2012, wording was: “As you may know, some people have proposed holding early parliamentary elections, perhaps within the next year. Do you support or oppose holding new parliamentary elections in the near future?”

May 2012


Kurd0

20

40

60

80

52

39 42

64

76

41

6876

35 34

50

28

7

46

2011

Approve Disapprove

Openness to new PM; only South disapprovesI'm going to read you a list of some things that have happened or that might happen in Iraq. For each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

A new prime minister being selected as a means to end the political conflict

May 2012

5 Critical Issues that Can Impact Trend

May 2012

5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend

1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns

May 2012

Sectarianism

Political instability

Education

Infrastructure development

High prices

Corruption

Security

Basic services like electricity and water

Jobs and unemployment

0 20 40 60

56810

1723

2742

55

Jobs and services continue to be top concernsPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

∆ Oct. ’11

-4

+7

--

-7

+7

+1

-1

-2

--

May 2012

Security

Corruption

Basic services


0 20 40 60 80

9

54

6

58

19

10

71

62

47

19

29

47

28

31

31

51Baghdad West South North

Jobs a concern across all regions, services in SouthPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

May 2012

Perception of jobs and electricity remain extremely weakPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NON-NORTH ONLY)

Job opportunities

Electricity supply

Corruption

Distribution of oil revenues


Interfence of countries in Iraq's internal affairs

Housing

Development of the oil industry

Water supply

Sectarianism

Security

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

89777668706562

44504242

1016181921253137444756

Worse Better

* Last asked in November 2010

∆ better Oct. ’11

+19

+9

-8*

n/a-8

+13

-1

n/a

+6

-4

+1

May 2012


20

40

60

80

100

25 24

6

23

8069 64

92

68

15

Better Worse

∆ Oct’11 -1 -- -22 +18 -- -1 +9 -11 +18 -18

Electricity supply varies by region; worst in SouthPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (ELECTRICITY SUPPLY)

May 2012


1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns2. Sunni insecurities intensify

May 2012

Sunnis still most pessimistic about country direction


20

40

60

80

59

4145

44

60

32

21 24

11

26

49

71

49 48

30

Shia right directon Non-Kurd Sunni right direction Kurd right direction

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (RIGHT DIRECTION ONLY)

May 2012

Corruption

Basic services


Security

0 20 40 60

47

11

56

11

18

54

57

23

22

31

47

48

Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Kurd

Security and jobs concerns dominate among SunnisPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

∆ Sunni Oct. ’11

+3

-13

+14

-17

May 2012

Majority of Sunnis (and Kurds) see sectarianism worsening

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-120

20

40

60

80

27

36 36 36

4752

71

58

2836

5661

Shia worse Non-Kurd Sunni worse Kurd worse

Please tell me if you think sectarianism is getting better or worse in Iraq. (WORSE ONLY)

May 2012

A Sunni majority now see Iraq as a divided country

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0

20

40

60

80

3523

585356

68

3826

Statement 1: Iraq is mostly a divided country.

Statement 2: Iraq is mostly a unified country.


∆ Mar’11 +12 -2 +6 +1 +29 -15 +10 --

May 2012

Worries about Maliki power grab among Sunnis and Kurds

Total Shia non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0

20

40

60

80

4636

6958

3241

171214 14

7

23

Too much power Just the right amount Not enough

Do you believe that al-Maliki has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough power?

∆ too muchMar. ’11 +10 +5 +6 +43

May 2012

Sunnis see Maliki as power-grabbing; lay blame

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Kurd0

20

40

60

80

51

68

30

9

3546

1424

3722

61 66

4637

6854

Statement 1: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to maintain order and security.

Statement 2: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to consolidate his power.


Statement 1: Members of parliament are more to blame for the current political crisis.

Statement 2: Prime Minister al-Maliki is more to blame for the current political crisis.

May 2012

Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Non-Kurd Sunni0

20

40

60

80

100

26

53

14

59

74

47

86

41

Maliki Others/all/none/DK

Sunnis see Maliki interested in power, acting like dictator

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-NORTH ONLY)

More interested in preserving his own power than helping the

peopleActing like a dictator

May 2012

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Kurd0

20

40

60

80

58

79

15

3929

14

64

4029

14

69

37

59

76

23

39

Approve Disapprove

Hashemi case divisive; contributes to Sunni concernFor each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

Kurdish leaders allowing Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi to stay in Kurdistan

Filing charges against Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi

May 2012


20

40

60

80

45

58

2126

41

29

6156

Better Worse

Most Sunnis see judicial independence worseningPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Independence of Iraq’s judges and courts

May 2012

Sunnis skeptical about Iraq’s democratic credentials


20

40

60

80

4559

12

3245

33

75

49

Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy.

Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy.


∆ Oct ’11 +2 -1 +13 -10 -4 +6 -41 +28

May 2012

Sunnis strongly feel Allawi does not have enough power


20

40

60

80

11 13 4 10

2836

1320

42

30

73

49

Too much power Just the right amount Not enough

Do you believe that Ayad Allawi has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough?

∆ not enoughMar. ’11 +1 -9 +6 +32

May 2012

Allawi favorability weak, but stable


20

40

60

48 48

3729 28

37 35

4451

56% Favorable % Unfavorable


May 2012


Kurd-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

28 26 13

59

11 16

71

12

56 65 75

2651

72

16

50

% Favorable % UnfavorableΔ favorable Oct ’11 -1 -5 -7 +8 +7 -6 +3 +7

Allawi favorability slightly declines; improves among base

May 2012

INA support continues to fall among Sunnis

Oct-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120

10

20

30

40

50

32

42 46

3530

11

17 1823

19

7

7

48 6

9

5

5

18

20

Iraqi National Accord IFND Und/DK/Ref Would not vote

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (NON-KURD SUNNIS ONLY)

May 2012


1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns2. Sunni insecurities intensify3. Disaffected Shias shifting support

May 2012

“Disaffected Shia” defined

“Disaffected Shia” = Demographic group that has shown previous frustration with Maliki and the government and openness to supporting Sadr

Shia

Urban

Under 400,000 dinar/month

16 percent of total sample

May 2012

Maliki’s favorability jumps among “Disaffected Shia”

Sadr Maliki Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Allawi Hashemi Mutlaq-100

-80-60-40-20

020406080

100

62 55 43 3718 15 1 1

18 32 41 45 5474

88 89



Δ favorable Oct ’11 +1 +14 -17 +6 +9 -1 -32 -6

May 2012

Maliki improves on key issues | “Disaffected Shia”

Cares about people like you

Helping the poor

Creating jobs

Improving basic services

Improving security

0 20 40 60 80 100

23

28

36

50

59

12

6

5

3

3

32

36

25

20

16

27

20

27

16

14

6

10

7

11

8

Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr?

∆ Maliki Jul ’11

+23

+17

+15

+9

+5

∆ Sadr Jul ’11

-4

+4

+5

+13

+8

May 2012


10

20

30

40

814 12

6 7

40

25 29

20

29

15 1518

22

17

75

11

477 9 9

15 15

Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY)

U.S. Withdrawal

Maliki support jumps, Sadr drops among “disaffected Shia”

May 2012


1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns2. Sunni insecurities intensify3. Disaffected Shias shifting support4. Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a

strategic campaign

May 2012


20

40

60

80

68

46

76 80

58

21

3421

12 16

Approve Disapprove

Openness to opposition group with alternative proposalsPlease tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

A group of political parties declaring themselves as opposition within the Council of Representatives and proposing policy alternatives different from

those set forth by the government

May 2012

Opposition actions | looking for watchdogs, alternatives

0 20 40 60 80 100

55575761626363636369

818286858785858688

89

Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable

Imagine that certain members of the CoR made an announcement declaring that they are forming an opposition group within the Council of Representatives. For each action, please tell me how it would make you feel towards this group -- would it make you feel much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, just a little more favorable, or no more favorable?

Closely monitor the govt's actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices.

Propose alternative policies for creating jobs, providing basic services, and fighting corruption.

Hold a monthly question and answer session with government ministers to hold them accountable.

To create more jobs, propose a 5-point economic plan that shows specific steps the gov’t needs to take.

Weekly media briefings to discuss what the government did and what were its successes and failures.

Conduct a listening tour to hear concerns and then present those concerns & solutions to the government.

A series of public meetings to listen to people’s concerns and provide the gov’t with policy alternatives.

Organize a group to monitor gov’t actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices.

To end pol. divisions, propose a 5-point reconciliation plan that shows steps the gov’t needs to take.

Hold a series of public debates between government opposition leaders so citizens hear opposing views.

May 2012


20

40

60

80

66

53

7971

41

2027

15 17

29

More likely Less likely

Opposition actions would likely increase supportAssuming an opposition group did some of the things you just heard, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for members of this group in the next election?

May 2012


1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns2. Sunni insecurities intensify3. Disaffected Shias shifting support4. Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a

strategic campaign5. North’s divisions with Baghdad intensify

May 2012

Significant shift in North’s perception of Iraq’s direction


20

40

60

80

50

67

5247

26

37

25

37 40

64


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (NORTH ONLY)

May 2012

North now has doubts about Iraqi democracy


20

40

60

80

45 44

69

2030

45 48

26

6552

Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy.

Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy.


∆ Oct. ’11 +2 -1 +4 -1 +18 -13 -5 +2 -38 +27

May 2012

North most supportive of more autonomous regions


20

40

60

80

100

27

1117

39

5867

82 82

59

19

Approve Disapprove

Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

Leaders from Anbar, Diyala and Salah al-Din asking for the establishment of an autonomous region for their governorate

May 2012

Majority still see Kurdistan heading in right direction


20

40

60

80

100

84

7274 78

65

921 22

15

30


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

May 2012

Security

Corruption

Basic services


0 20 40 60 80

9

54

6

58

19

10

71

62

47

19

29

47

28

31

31

51Baghdad West South North

Jobs and corruption concerns dominate in NorthPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

May 2012

Corruption and jobs continues to worsen in NorthPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NORTH ONLY)

Corruption

Job opportunities


Distribution of oil revenues

Sectarianism

Development of the oil industry

Housing

Security

Electricity supply

Water supply

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

7979

636160

474338

157

151727262828

4856

8089

Worse Better∆ better Oct. ’11

+12

+18

+4

-15

n/a

-6

n/a

-16

+5

-4

May 2012

Helping the poorImproving basic services

Fights corruptionEnding sectarianism

Uniting IraqCares about people like you

Bringing independence to KurdistanCan bring political stability

Creating jobsImproving security

Making Kurdistan stronger

0 20 40 60 80 100

3638

3133

26343533

403943

13

12

211

003

1

2119

2330

5232

2638

2932

25

12923

114

1418

127

612

3031

2224

16192017

242019

N. Barzani* Maliki All/none/other/DK/ref Mustafa Salih

Barzani/KDP strong on jobs, weak on corruption

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Nechirvan Barzani*; Barham Salih; or Nawshirwan Mustafa? (NORTH ONLY)

* Before April 2012, asked Massoud Barzani; April 2012 onward, asked Nawshirwan Barazani

PUK north vote: 21% KDP North vote: 42%

May 2012

Kurdish leaders ratings improve | North only

Talabani M. Barzani N. Barzani N. Mustafa-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

66 65 6441

16 18 21 31


Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NORTH ONLY)

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +4 n/a +15

May 2012

Favorability of Kurdish parties also improves | North only

KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

59 5539 30 26

24 2233 37 31


Δ favorable Oct ’11 +10 +8 +18 +8 +13

May 2012

KDP shows strong growth, PUK drops | North only


10

20

30

40

50

32

30 35 36

42

35

21 31 28

219

16 14

5

12

76 3 5

57

159

14

12

KDP PUK Goran Movement KIU Und/DK/Ref

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (NORTH ONLY)

May 2012

EUROPE405 Carrington House6 Hertford StreetLondon, UK W1J 7SUT: +44.(0).207.096.5070F: +44.(0).207.096.5068

HEADQUARTERS10 G Street, NESuite 500Washington, DC 20002T: 202.478.8300F: 202.478.8301

LATIN AMERICACabrera 6060, 7DC1414 BHNCiudad de Buenos Aires ArgentinaT: +54.11.4772.0813

www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.com

A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Results from the April 2012 National Survey

Documents

Transcript of A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Results from the April 2012 National Survey