A Discussion Session Co-sponserd by Affordable …...Mafraq 100,071 127,681 1% Total: 56.5% Urban...
Transcript of A Discussion Session Co-sponserd by Affordable …...Mafraq 100,071 127,681 1% Total: 56.5% Urban...
Korea
Green Growth
Trust Fund
A Discussion Session Co-sponserd by Affordable Housing KSB, Land TG,
and Safe and Inclusive Cities KSB, Smart Cities KSB, and Urbanscapes KSB
February 14, 2018
Part I Introduction and Findings
▪ How would Jordanian cities look like in 2030?
▪ How would today’s policy and investment decisions lead to
alternative futures?
▪ How do spatial patterns/land use changes affect infrastructure
costs, municipal service costs, GHG emissions, energy and
water consumptions, etcetera?
City PPL (2015) Projected PPL (2030)(27.59% increase)
%of total ppl in Jordan
Amman 3,423,389 4,367,902 36%
Irbid 815,815 1,040,898 8.6%
Zarqa 588,232 750,584 6.2%
Russeifa 451,315 575,832 4.7%
Mafraq 100,071 127,681 1%
Total: 56.5%
Urban Growth Scenarios for Five Jordanian Cities
AM
MA
NB
AU
MO
DER
ATE
VIS
ION
Municipal services costsEnergy
Infrastructure costs
GHG emissions
Landconsumption
41.44
24.19
0.00
4,323
4,312
3,695
1,308
1,304
1,120
231.67
135.23
16.55
58
55
49
km2
km2
km2
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
JD / capita
JD / capita
JD / capita
CO
MP
AC
T G
RO
WTH
0.00km2
3,719 1,128 16.99 50
kWh/capita/annum kgCO2eq/capita/annum Millions of JD JD / capita
Moderate Compact Growth
BAU Vision
Results in Different Scenarios for Amman
Population in Base Year (2015): 3,423,389Population in Horizon Year (2030): 4,367,902
AM
MA
NB
AU
MO
DER
ATE
VIS
ION
Municipal services costsEnergy
Infrastructure costs
GHG emissions
Landconsumption
41.44
24.19
0.00
4,323
4,312
3,695
1,308
1,304
1,120
231.67
135.23
16.55
58
55
49
km2
km2
km2
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
JD / capita
JD / capita
JD / capita
CO
MP
AC
T G
RO
WTH
0.00km2
3,719 1,128 16.99 50
kWh/capita/annum kgCO2eq/capita/annum Millions of JD JD / capita
Moderate Compact Growth
BAU Vision
BAU vs Compact / Vision
Land Use Changes in Amman:
AM
MA
N4
,36
7,9
02
inh
abit
ants
by
20
30 BA
UM
OD
ERA
TEV
ISIO
N
Municipal services costsEnergy
Infrastructure costs
GHG emissions
Landconsumption
41.44
24.19
0.00
4,323
4,312
3,695
1,308
1,304
1,120
231.67
135.23
16.55
58
55
49
km2
km2
km2
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
JD / capita
JD / capita
JD / capita
CO
MP
AC
T G
RO
WTH
0.00km2
3,719 1,128 16.99 50
kWh/capita/annum kgCO2eq/capita/annum Millions of JD JD / capita
Moderate Compact Growth
BAU Vision 500 million JD saved in costs of municipal services between 2015 and 2030
AM
MA
N4
,36
7,9
02
inh
abit
ants
by
20
30 BA
UM
OD
ERA
TEV
ISIO
N
Municipal services costsEnergy
Infrastructure costs
GHG emissions
Landconsumption
41.44
24.19
0.00
4,323
4,312
3,695
1,308
1,304
1,120
231.67
135.23
16.55
58
55
49
km2
km2
km2
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kWh/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
kgCO2eq/capita/annum
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
Millions of JD
JD / capita
JD / capita
JD / capita
CO
MP
AC
T G
RO
WTH
0.00km2
3,719 1,128 16.99 50
kWh/capita/annum kgCO2eq/capita/annum Millions of JD JD / capita
Moderate Compact Growth
BAU Vision
• urban growth scenarios = projecting possible future conditions of cities
• Assess the possible outcomes of implementing different projects, instruments or policies
Conceptual Framework of Urban Growth Scenarios
Input variablesIndicators
Public t ransit network
Employment density
Populat ion density
Pedestrian infrastructure
Land value
Urban form
Urban development plans
Infrastructure costs
Water demand
Energy consumpt ion
Infrastructure cost
Public space proximity
Water consumpt ion
Land consumpt ion
Job proximity
GHG emissions
Public t ransport proximity
SCENARIO
AM
MA
N
BA
UM
OD
ERA
TEV
ISIO
N
MasterPlan
Compactgrowth
The city expands according to historicalgrowth patterns. No efficiency measures orpolicy levers are considered.
Planned bus & BRT lines
16 MW solar farm
100% LED
Planned bus & BRT linesProposed BRT line in East Amman
16 MW solar farm
GBC in 14% of newdwellings
Two additional transfer stations
GBC in 90% of newdwellings
100% LED
Two additional transfer stations
Building Scenarios with Policy Levers
Population in Base Year (2015):3,423,389 inhabitants
Population in Horizon Year (2030):4,367,902 inhabitants
meetingsworkshops
Urban concerns
Policy leversSource: CAPSUS photo archive 2017.
10months
15
Urban Concerns and Policy Levers are Context-SpecificTechnical staff of the five municipalities, LTRC, DOS, DLS, MoMA and MoPIC were involved.
On-line visualization tool:
http://jordan.capitalsustenta
ble.com.mx
Capacity building,
knowledge transfer, and
ownership:
Part II Methodology and Engagement Process
▪ How to Conduct Urban Growth Scenarios Modelling?
▪ Model Specification, Data Collection and Cleaning, Indicator
Identification, and Scenario Development
▪ Client Engagement and Capacity Building
Urban concerns & potential solutions
Data gathering & indicators selection
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.
Methodsdevelopment
Policy leversdefinition
Scenariodevelopment
Resultsdissemination
JAN.
Preliminary activities
Introduction &first contact
Meetings with stakeholders
Dissemination meetings
National Workshop
Follow up meetings
Meetings with decision makers
FEB.
Spatial DataAt the heart of the Urban Growth Scenario Modelling.
Geospatial data is used to:
1) Predict urban expansion
2) Model population distribution
3) Calculate indicators
Geodatabase in PostreSQL using pgAdmin and QGIS as interfaces
1) Urban Expansion ModelModelling land use change with machine learning algorithms.
Three machine learning algorithms were used to model land use changes:
• Random forests
• Extratrees
• Logistic regressions with regularization
They analyze land use changes in three moments in time (1990, 2000 and 2014) and
their explanatory variables to ”train” to predict possible changes in future land use.
Historic growth patterns
Urban footprint in 1990
Urban footprint 2000
Urban footprint 2014
Urban Expansion Model
Areas most likely to
become urban by 2030
Extratrees prediction for 2030
Urban Expansion Model
Data Source Temporality Format
Built-up Grid Global Human Settlements
Layer (GHSL) by EU
1990, 2000 and 2014 Raster data (250x250 m pixel
resolution)
Population Grid GHSL 1990, 2000 and 2015 Raster data (250x250 m pixel
resolution)
Digital Elevation
Model
U.S. Geological Survey’s Center
for Earther Resources
Observation and Science
(EROS)
1996 Raster data (1000x1000 m
pixel resolution)
GDP Distribution National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
1995, 2000 and 2013 Raster data (1000x1000 m
pixel resolution)
Highways Open Street Maps Starting from 2008 Lines geometry
Geolocations (airports, schools,
universities, worship
places, hospitals)
Open Street Maps Starting from 2008 Points geometry
Water Bodies Esri Data and Maps 2017 Polygons geometry
Explanatory Variables of the Urban Expansion ModelGlobal data sources with similar temporality to compare results among cities.
BEGINPop to allocate= projected populationIncrement between the base year and the horizon year
Vacant housingDistribute population
in existing vacant housing units
LEVERReduce vacant housing rate is
ON
LEVERSettlement of
new population
For each square:Population = Population +(I * max_hu-hu) * hu_size
For each square, if max_hu = NULL:Population = Population +(assumed_hu-hu) * hu_size
STEP 1Distribute population in polygon 1
STEP 2Distribute population in polygon 2
STEP 3Distribute population in polygon 3
STEP 4Distribute population in polygon 4
STEP 5JobFootprintexpansion
STEP 1JobTransitFootprint base
STEP 2JobFootprint base
STEP 3TransitFootprint base
STEP 4Footprint base
STEP 6TransitFootprintexpansion
STEP 7Footprintexpansion
STEP 8Politicalboundary
END
AreaUpdate the urban footprint areaand calculate the infill area
Footprint = existing + new areas
Infill area = sum of area where population had a 2 fold increase
NO
EXIT
max_hu
I = 80%
hu
hu
assumed_hu
STEP 5Distribute population in polygon 5
Footprintexpansion
2) Population Settlement Model
0- Population settles in expansion areas (BAU)
1- Prioritize served areas (Vision / Compact Growth)
2- Settlement in zoned expansion areas (Master Plan / Moderate)
3) Calculating indicators for JordanData collected from the municipalities was adapted and complemented to create indicators.
Main data collected:
• Population projections
• Population distribution
• Land use and permitted housing
• Public transport routes and stops
• Landmarks (amenities)
• Job densities
Data limitations:
• Disaggregation level
• Incomplete / partial data
• Incompatible geo-codes
• Different projections
Data Sources and Indicators
country_code city_code square_id longitude latitude pop_lever population area location pob15_64
52 55 3101300010061001 -89.522891 21.0791353 2 29 3.21 POINT(-89.522891055921.0791353056) 15
52 55 3101300010061002 -89.521324 21.0789368 2 89 3.25 POINT(-89.521323710121.078936754) 59
52 55 3101300010061003 -89.521506 21.0774544 2 72 3.1 POINT(-89.521505622521.0774543836) 49
52 55 3101300010061004 -89.523061 21.0776538 2 44 2.86 POINT(-89.52306084121.0776538179) 33
52 55 3101300010061005 -89.524656 21.0778438 2 46 2.75 POINT(-89.52465639321.0778437987) 39
52 55 3101300010061006 -89.52361 21.0826073 2 10 3.53 POINT(-89.523609747221.0826073492) 10
52 55 3101300010061007 -89.521155 21.0803561 2 61 3.58 POINT(-89.521155381821.0803560717) 39
52 55 3101300010061008 -89.519573 21.0801917 2 61 3.88 POINT(-89.519573293721.0801917252) 39
52 55 3101300010061009 -89.519755 21.0787294 2 97 3.57 POINT(-89.519754575621.0787293529) 71
52 55 3101300010061010 -89.519938 21.0772663 2 99 3.36 POINT(-89.519938235221.0772662844) 70
52 55 3101300010061011 -89.520289 21.0749864 2 13 3.08 POINT(-89.520288539421.0749863962) 10
52 55 3101300010061012 -89.521688 21.0759851 2 121 2.78 POINT(-89.521688374321.0759851279) 88
52 55 3101300010061013 -89.523239 21.0761782 2 124 2.64 POINT(-89.523238657821.0761781914) 92
27
Population that lives 700 meters or less awayfrom a school
Total population
28
Coverage area
School proximity indicator
Public space proximity indicator for Russeifa
GHG emissions indicatorCalculation method
Infrastructure costs indicatorCalculation method
Thank you!
For more information:
Bank:
● Yuan Xiao [email protected]
● Ellen Hamilton [email protected]
CAPSUS:
● Carmen Valdez [email protected]