A Cross-National Comparison of Voter Turnout in 15 Sub ... Cross-National... · of Voter Turnout in...

Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354

Scot Schraufnagel

1

Research Centre for Management and Social Studies

A Cross-National Comparison

Scot Schraufnagel, PhD1Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science

DeKalb, Illinois 60115-2828. Email: 2Northern Illinois University

60115-2828. Email: [email protected]

Manuscript ID:

Abstract

The political fortunes of Sub-Saharan Africa changed dramatically in the past twenty

late 1980s, many countries have held regular multi

participation rates, a common starting point for work on democratization, is now possible. This paper

represents a first look at the determinants of voter turnout in 15 African states that have witnessed some

stability in national elections since 1988. Con

model is developed to test a colonial legacy thesis, which seeks to und

colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research ex

played by ethnic fractionalization and religious diversity on electoral participation rates. The former is

found to associate with less participation and the lat

uncovers, on average, voter turnout is higher in former French colonies.

Key Words: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious

Pluralism

Introduction Africa is home to about one-seventh of the world's people

the world's nation-states.Being the second largest continent

gives rise to a rich and diverse terrain featured in countless movies and photographs

Africa has become a desired tourist destination for people

governmental stability on much of

ethnic lines, giving rise to political

Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010

dispersed equitably and are often

Africa’s vast and varied terrain

1996),which creates socio-economic

party electionsin many nation-states

trend away from political strife

continent (Wiseman 1993; Lindberg 2006).

This research studies recent

focus on voter participation rates

turnout are central to the democratic experience and

democratic transition (Mozaffar 2002, 86; Moehler 2009)

(1989)argues, convincingly, tha

and participatory elections.Although elections

which countries are, and which

competentelections unlike any other

governance (Bratton and van de Walle 1997;

Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)

Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15


National Comparison of Voter Turnout in 15 Sub-Saharan African States

Scot Schraufnagel, PhD1&Peter Gowen

2

Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science,

2828. Email: [email protected](Corresponding Author)

Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science, DeKalb, Illinois

[email protected]

Manuscript ID: RCMSS/JGGSDA/1412001

Saharan Africa changed dramatically in the past twenty-five years. Since the

late 1980s, many countries have held regular multi-party elections. A cross-national examination of voter



stability in national elections since 1988. Controlling for several standard explanations of voter turnout, a

model is developed to test a colonial legacy thesis, which seeks to understand the influence the former

colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research ex


found to associate with less participation and the latter higher voter turnout. Moreover, the research

rnout is higher in former French colonies.

: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious

seventh of the world's people and it contains a little over a quarter of

Being the second largest continent in the world, Africa’s

terrain featured in countless movies and photographs

desired tourist destination for people from all over the globe. Unfortunately

much of the continent is incomplete. Nation-states often d

political discord and social disharmony(Annett 2001; Lindberg and

Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010).High natural resource endowments

often linked to civil conflict (Homer-Dixon 1994)

varied terrain hides the fact there is a dearth of suitable farmland (Eswaran

economic and political challenges. Nevertheless, shiftsto

states,since the late 1980s and early 1990s,may mark a permanent

strife toward a steadiersocial and economic life for much of the

Lindberg 2006).

recent elections in 15 Sub-Saharan African nation

participation rates. Scholars argue, quality electionswith reasonabl

are central to the democratic experience and go a long way toward defining successful

(Mozaffar 2002, 86; Moehler 2009). Political theorist

that the core institution of modern liberal democracy

hough elections with high voter turnout are insufficient to

which are not,succeeding as democracies, scholarship suggests

elections unlike any other democratic institution must precede successful

van de Walle 1997; Lindberg 2006, 1).Moreover, many

in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.

Saharan African States

five years. Since the

national examination of voter



trolling for several standard explanations of voter turnout, a

erstand the influence the former

colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research examines the role


er higher voter turnout. Moreover, the research

: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious

t contains a little over a quarter of

’s great expanse

terrain featured in countless movies and photographs. Increasingly,

all over the globe. Unfortunately,

states often divide along

; Lindberg and

resource endowments are not

Dixon 1994). Moreover,

farmland (Eswaran et al.

to stable multi-

may mark a permanent

for much of the

African nation-states with a

with reasonably high voter

go a long way toward defining successful

heorist Robert Dahl

he core institution of modern liberal democracy is competitive

are insufficient to define

hip suggests that

e successful self-

many argue early


Scot Schraufnagel

2


electoral experiences represent a critical juncture in the trajectory of a

Kostadinova 2003; Kostadinova and Power 2007

presence of democratic elections

and political liberties (Lindberg 2006).

Hence, this inquiry into

elections. While not an unqualified success

2012),over the past 25 years,multi

on the African continent. Taking advantage of th

national comparison of voter turnoutrates

others have used to examine variance

fromothervoter turnout studies,

of the countries enduredas itrelate

legacy thesis has been a common baseline for work on p

and Kaiser 2007; Englebert 2000;

In addition, we attempt

ethnic and religious fractionalization

conflict is a paramount explanation of electoral

(Young 1976; Bates 1983; Horowitz 1985; Lindberg and Mo

Posner 2010; and on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something

this debate by also examining

attention. In particular, we seek to

tensionand associate with higher voter turnout rates, while

a single religion may cause individuals, in the aggregate, to

and associate with lower participation rates.

Importantly, we do not

democratic development.The research

limited intention is to further cross

elections, while uncovering insights that

directly. Ultimately, we will test the predictive power of the for

religious pluralism, and several control variables

patterns around the world.Sp

concurrent executive and legislative

and civil rights that characterizes

House organization.

The remainder of the

overview of earlier works on democratic transition

to colonialism and ethnic and religious pluralism

regarding voter turnout, based on

our empirical tests, which is followed by a summary

counterintuitive findings related to former French colonies

1 A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by

Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, and Staffan Lindberg(http://kellogg.nd.edu/projects/vdem/ last accessed

8/27/2014). We cite Lindberg and

work both in the democratization literature,




represent a critical juncture in the trajectory of a body politic (Rustow 1970

Kostadinova 2003; Kostadinova and Power 2007) and that once regularized, even the mere

of democratic elections, helps to establish a self-reinforcing trend toward greater civil

and political liberties (Lindberg 2006).1

inquiry into democratic development in Sub-Saharan Africa

hile not an unqualified success (seeChabal 1998; Brown and Kaiser 2007; Cheru

multi-party elections have become more commonin many

. Taking advantage of the relative stability, this researchinitiate

voter turnoutrates in an attempt to illuminate correlates

variance in voter turnout rates in other parts of the

, however, this research scrutinizes the colonizing experience each

relates to contemporary variance in participation rates

been a common baseline for work on political development in Africa

Englebert 2000; Mozaffar 2002).

attempt to generalize, across nation-states and time, about the role

fractionalization on voter turnout rates. Many suggest ethnic identity

is a paramount explanation of electoral-political outcomes across Sub-Saharan

6; Bates 1983; Horowitz 1985; Lindberg and Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and

on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something

this debate by also examining religious diversity, a consideration that has received

seek to test whether ethnic homogeneity may reduce

and associate with higher voter turnout rates, whilereligious homogeneity or

cause individuals, in the aggregate, to de-emphasize the political process

and associate with lower participation rates.

do not hold that higher voter turnout rates are analogous to greater

research, in this regard, must be viewed as incomplete.

intention is to further cross-national discovery on the topic of voter turnout

while uncovering insights that others might use to study democratic development

test the predictive power of the former colonizer, ethnic pluralism,

everal control variables that others have foundaffect voter turnout

Specifically, we control for population density, adult literacy,

executive and legislative elections, founding elections, and the level of civil libert

and civil rights that characterizes each country in each election year as defined by the Freedom

paper is divided into four sections. The first provides a brief

earlier works on democratic transition in Sub-Saharan Africaparticularly as it relates

to colonialism and ethnic and religious pluralism. The second develops and proposes hypotheses

, based on previous scholarship. The third section presents the results

our empirical tests, which is followed by a summary sectionthat attempts to explain the somewhat

counterintuitive findings related to former French colonies.Where others have suggest

A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by


and various co-authors extensively throughout this paper because of

work both in the democratization literature, but also for work on elections in Africa.


(Rustow 1970;

nce regularized, even the mere

reinforcing trend toward greater civil

Africa focuses on

Chabal 1998; Brown and Kaiser 2007; Cheru

many countries

initiates a cross-

in the manner

world.Distinct

experience each

rates.A colonial

development in Africa(Brown

about the role of

Many suggest ethnic identity and

Saharan Africa

ison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and

on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something new to

a consideration that has received much less

reduce political

ordominance by

the political process

analogous to greater

must be viewed as incomplete.Our more

national discovery on the topic of voter turnout in African

democratic development more

mer colonizer, ethnic pluralism,

affect voter turnout

adult literacy,

the level of civil liberties

country in each election year as defined by the Freedom

first provides a brief

particularly as it relates

develops and proposes hypotheses

presents the results of

to explain the somewhat

suggested former

A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by


this paper because of their


Scot Schraufnagel

3


British colonies, on average, ought to h

being equal, higher voter participation rates in former French colonies.

that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts high

rates of voter participation.

Earlier Works on Sub-SaharanThe study of democratization in

left significant theoretical and empirical holes.

to individual nation-states (Firmin

2013). When scholars makecross

Adejumobi 2000; Brown and Kaiser 2002

exploratory. In an important deviation, Mozaffar (2002) studies 36

states and learns former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the

autonomy of election management bod

legitimize the electoral process.

survey data to learn thatas elections draw near

Miguel, and Posner 2010).This

establish a starting point for further

variables and voter turnout rates

Probably the facet of democratic development in Africa

which an uneven democratic experience

colonizing power. Most notably,

European colonizershave led to

governance is known as ‘indirect rule

French orientation, stated at its best

Africans but with Euro-centric standards and little actual socio

equality(320-21). The Portuguese and

French;although often there was

(322-23).

Others note the British

in the country’s former colonies (

scholars note good governance and economic growthhave been

French colonies. Under aBritish

investor protections, which can

economic growth (Barro 1996)

and Cogneau (2008) study inter

five former colonies,which run

populations in former British colonies ha

and educational status.2

Important for this work

prior to the independence movements

on average, had a longer experience and

2 The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from

colonial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.




British colonies, on average, ought to have greater democratic success, this research finds all else

being equal, higher voter participation rates in former French colonies. We also uncover evidence

that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts high

Saharan African Democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa, although becoming more common, still has

theoretical and empirical holes.What has been learned, to date, often is applicable

states (Firmin-Sellers 2000; Brown 2001; Schubert 2010; Hoffman and Long

cross-national comparisons(Bratton and van de Walle 1997

Adejumobi 2000; Brown and Kaiser 2002),by their own admission, the work has been largely

In an important deviation, Mozaffar (2002) studies 36 Sub-Saharan African nation

former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the

autonomy of election management bodies or state-run bureaucracies usedto

. Another cross-national work examines a sample of countries

as elections draw nearer ethnic identitybecomes more salient

This researchwill use a similar approach to those just cited

a starting point for further inquiry into the relationship between a host of predictor

and voter turnout rates.

of democratic development in Africa studied the most is the extent to

uneven democratic experience is due to the dissimilar governing practices of

Most notably, Gilbert and Reynolds (2008) note the varied philosophies of th

led to distinct government structures. The British model of colonial

indirect rule’ for its greater reliance on local power structures (324).

stated at its best, was one of fostering equality between Europeans and

centric standards and little actual socio-political or economic

21). The Portuguese and Belgian models were more closely aligned with the

as evenfewercivil rights orliberties afforded indigenous population

British common law legal system is responsible for greater civic culture

former colonies (Firmin-Sellers 2000; La Porta et al. 1999; Hayek 1960

governance and economic growthhave been less robust, on average, in

British common law system, countries tend to have better property and

can lead to a more diverse spread of capital and higher

economic growth (Barro 1996). Accordingly, and broadening Firmin-Seller’s sample, Bossuroy

inter- and intra-generational social mobility in Africa. Their

un the gamut of the democracy/authoritarian spectrum,

former British colonies have better social mobility, after controlling for occupation

Important for this work, we noteboth Britain and France introduced multi-party elections

movements thatswept Africa in the 1960s. However, French colonies

longer experience and a greater number of multiparty elections (Collier 1982)

The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from

ial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.


ater democratic success, this research finds all else

uncover evidence

that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts higher

Africa, although becoming more common, still has

often is applicable

; Brown 2001; Schubert 2010; Hoffman and Long

de Walle 1997;

the work has been largely

African nation-

former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the

to organize and

a sample of countries and

salient (Eifert,

to those just cited and seeks to

the relationship between a host of predictor

is the extent to

governing practices of each

varied philosophies of the

he British model of colonial

for its greater reliance on local power structures (324). The

was one of fostering equality between Europeans and

political or economic

closely aligned with the

afforded indigenous populations

greater civic culture

; La Porta et al. 1999; Hayek 1960). These

robust, on average, in former

common law system, countries tend to have better property and

d to a more diverse spread of capital and higher aggregate

Seller’s sample, Bossuroy

. Theirstudy of

/authoritarian spectrum, findsnative

controlling for occupation

party elections

. However, French colonies,

(Collier 1982).

The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from

ial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.


Scot Schraufnagel

4


Lindberg (2006) has studied elections in

one of his most important these

allowed for equality of political participation and free competition

important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an

barometer of the quality of the

elected representatives to assemblies in both France

regular-competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral

process in former French colonies.

Lindberg (2006) also notes

Sub-Saharan Africa and that this presents several po

electoral system (see alsoEasterly and Levine 1997; Posner 2004

ethnic fractionalization has been negatively correlated with

economic growth (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004

political parties in many African nation

politicians have an easy time making the case

political violence (Bates 1994, 21).

enthusiasm, especially among moderates or non

Mozaffar, Scarritt and Galaich (2003)

rules interact in ways to create

elections.In particular, they note

the number of coalitions, reduc

deadlock caused by ethno-political fragmentation

note the round of democratization

fractionalization than had previously been witnessed (251

(2006) attests to this and notes

also Reilly 2000-01).

Religion, and the effect

Africa, has not received nearly the level of attention that

pluralism, religious diversitymay

associated with the development of competing political parties that

violence and/or boycotts, both formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter

turnout.However, when religious diversity pre

political life of a community, there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find

that religious homogeneity can prompt a scenario where

traditions than they are political

process (Fish 2002).4Religious

3Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both

important, and that though district magnitude helps

this effect is conditioned by ethnic group concentrations (3854 Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links

between organized religion and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam

and Catholicism (see alsoKalyvas, 2000 on the relevance of religious parties)

that the more dominant a single religion is the weaker are democrati

2004). Importantly, Fish (2002) has shown that predominantly Islamic




elections in nearly all Sub-Saharan African countries since 198

most important theses is that even when elections are merely ‘de jure

allowed for equality of political participation and free competition’ (8). Lindberg em

important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an

the quality of the democratic process.Beginning in 1946, all former French colonies

elected representatives to assemblies in both France and local councils. Our suspicion

competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral

process in former French colonies.

also notes, political parties tend to be ethnically based across

his presents several potential problems for the functioning of

Easterly and Levine 1997; Posner 2004; Posner 2005)

has been negatively correlated with the quality of governance, as well as

economic growth (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004; Burkhart and Lewis-Beck 1994

in many African nation-states continue to form along ethnic lines and

time making the case that a win by an opponent may

political violence (Bates 1994, 21).This, in turn, can have the effect of dampen

enthusiasm, especially among moderates or non-group members.

rritt and Galaich (2003), for their part, show that ethnicity and electoral

rules interact in ways to create variance in the quality and manageability of multi

they note the high interest in concurrent elections, which tend

reducethe number of political parties, and mitigate the potential for

political fragmentation.3 Moreover, Bratton and van de Walle (1997)

round of democratization that began in the early 1990s opened with less ethnic

fractionalization than had previously been witnessed (251-252; see alsoMamdani 1996). Lindberg

and notes the hyper-regional characteristic of parties has waned (78

effect of religious diversity on electoral processes and outcomes in

has not received nearly the level of attention that ethnic pluralism has.

eligious diversitymay encourage participation.As noted, ethnic pluralism

associated with the development of competing political parties that may advocate for election

formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter

when religious diversity prevents a single religion from dominat

there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find

can prompt a scenario wherebypeople are more loyal to religious

than they are political associations and, consequently, less concerned with the political

Religious pluralism and a more secular political process, one that

Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both

important, and that though district magnitude helps to define the number of parties involved in an election

this effect is conditioned by ethnic group concentrations (385-86).

Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links

on and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam

Kalyvas, 2000 on the relevance of religious parties). The conclusion is, generally,

that the more dominant a single religion is the weaker are democratic institutions (Blais 2000; Fornos et al.

2004). Importantly, Fish (2002) has shown that predominantly Islamic or Catholic countries had poorer


African countries since 1989 and

de jure’ they ‘have

. Lindberg emphasizes the

important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an important

French colonies

and local councils. Our suspicion is that these

competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral

based across much of

problems for the functioning of an

). Importantly,

quality of governance, as well as

Beck 1994).Today,

and incumbent

may incite ethno-

This, in turn, can have the effect of dampening voter

show that ethnicity and electoral

the quality and manageability of multi-party

tends to increase

the potential for

Bratton and van de Walle (1997)

opened with less ethnic

Mamdani 1996). Lindberg

regional characteristic of parties has waned (78-80; see

and outcomes in

. Unlike ethnic

c pluralism has been

advocate for election

formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter

dominating the socio-

there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find

more loyal to religious

less concerned with the political

one that puts a

Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both

to define the number of parties involved in an election,

Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links

on and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam

. The conclusion is, generally,

c institutions (Blais 2000; Fornos et al.

Catholic countries had poorer


Scot Schraufnagel

5


premium on participation sans religion

average.5

Research Design and HypothesesThe study uses a Generalized L

uninterrupted multi-party elections in 15

1988 and 2012.When constructing the sample, several

Saharan African nation-statesare

the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were

excluded due to their unique characteristics, not the least of which is

any nation-state with a population below

most similar case design intended to hold some socio

constant.Next, we only use first round

excluded, again, for the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases

the clock in 1988 coincidesloosely

(Huntington 1991). The final sample can be seen in Table 1

following footnote elaborates more on case selection

(Table 1 goes about here. See appendix

Dependent Variable: Voter turnout

(VAP) that casts a vote in a given election

included is provided in Table 1.

population in each country). We u

cleaner.Registration rolls in many African nation

2006, 639).Data on voting age population w

Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), as it has the most comprehensive database for

VAP. Data on total votes cast w

democratic experiences but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal

trust. In his study, he controls for a wide range of factors including ethnic pluralism and

heritage. 5Varshney (2007) claims that ‘religion

phenomena are distinct. We offer as evid6Initially, only countries which maintained successful,

were in the sample. This consideration caused all former Belgium colonies to be

We relax the coding rule and include t

post-genocide elections from Rwanda to test the hypothes

colonies. Bratton and van de Walle (1997, 120

surrounding selecting a suitable sample of country

cases they label ‘blocked transitions.

test of voter turnout may be compromised by any of a number of factors related to money politics,

incomplete data, and fraud. Yet,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the

end, when the elections took place in countries

was some minimal level of competition

of the votes cast.




sans religion, might then associate with greater voter turnout,

and Hypotheses Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression model to explain voter turnout in

elections in 15 African countries. The elections took place

When constructing the sample, several factors were considered. First, o

are included.The sample excludes the states of NorthAfricadue to

the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were

excluded due to their unique characteristics, not the least of which is small population.

state with a population below one million persons was not considered

intended to hold some socio-economic and cultural

first round elections. Second round elections and r

the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases

esloosely with the latest wave of democratization in the region

. The final sample can be seen in Table 1 and includes 92

following footnote elaborates more on case selection.6

See appendix)

Voter turnout is modeled as the percentage of the voting age population

a vote in a given election year. The average value for each of the 15 countries

included is provided in Table 1. Most specifically, total votes are divided bythe VAP

). We use VAPinstead of registered voters because the

in many African nation-states are poorly tracked or maintained

on voting age population were retrieved from the International Institute for


otal votes cast were drawn from the online African Elections Database

but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal

he controls for a wide range of factors including ethnic pluralism and a British colonial

religion’ is a particular kind of ‘ethnicity’ (277), but we hold

as evidence the countervailing theoretical expectations cited above.

nly countries which maintained successful, de jure democratic electionssince the late 1980s

This consideration caused all former Belgium colonies to be dropped from the analysis

include twosuccessive and contemporary elections from Burundi and

genocide elections from Rwanda to test the hypothesis that voter turnout will be lower in Belgium

le (1997, 120-21) are particularly cognizant of the many issues

surrounding selecting a suitable sample of country-elections to study. We include elections from some

blocked transitions.’ We fully appreciate their concerns and recognized this preliminary


,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the

lace in countries with flawed transitions we include elections

was some minimal level of competition, defined as the losing political parties receiving at least 30 percent


er voter turnout, on

regression model to explain voter turnout in

took place between

First, only Sub-

NorthAfricadue to

the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were also

population. Explicitly,

not considered, bolstering a

and cultural considerations

and referenda are

the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases. Last, starting

the latest wave of democratization in the region

elections; the

voting age population

alue for each of the 15 countries

VAP (the over-18

because the data are

are poorly tracked or maintained (Geys

retrieved from the International Institute for


African Elections Database (AED),

but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal

British colonial

(277), but we hold that the

cited above.

electionssince the late 1980s

from the analysis.

contemporary elections from Burundi and three

s that voter turnout will be lower in Belgium

cognizant of the many issues

elections to study. We include elections from some

this preliminary


,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the

include elections only if there

defined as the losing political parties receiving at least 30 percent


Scot Schraufnagel

6


and compared to data in Psephos

IDEA's data for total votes cast

Colonial Power.The first explanatory variable is the former colonizer

nation-states. The countries included were colonized by

Portugaland consequently four

Given the theoretical and empirical range of institutional bonuses former British colonies gained

upon independence, it is hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than

elsewhere, ceteris paribus. British colonie

providing the baseline for the statistical test

negative regression coefficients

the other countries than in former British colonies

Portuguese colonies will produce

to involve indigenous populations i

Portugal,scholars argue, had been

Key Considerations: Ethnic and Religious Pluralism

ethnicity and party politics across Africa,

variation in voter turnout rates across the countries studied. O

diversity, on average, will lead to lower

tendency for ethnic-based political parties

The latter is believed to deter

caught up in violent acts. Data for ethnic pl

of the CIA World Factbook. Specifically, we subtract

from the largest reported ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprise

percentof a country's population

that the largest ethnic group is a smaller percentage of the total population

pluralism prevails. The mean ethnic pluralism

deviation of over 30 percent.

Religious Pluralismis measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data

obtained from the annual editions of the

range from six percent in Senegal in 2007 and 2012

Senegal is about 94 percent Sunni Muslim and

homogeneous of the nation-states

but this group comprises less than

all cases is 39.7 percent.

7 We contacted IDEA concerning four issues we unco

errors. The other two were transcription errors: the last digit was missing. Finally, their data include an

inconsistency in coding Total Votes for multi

while other times it is second round numbers. Because of th

relying most heavily on the African Elections Database

source of voter turnout data. IDEA and

when they were not, we turned to Elections in Africa

‘correct’ value. AED tended to match these other sources more often than IDEA.




Psephos (2013) and Elections in Africa (1999)for accuracy

cast to be less reliable.7

explanatory variable is the former colonizer in each of the 15

The countries included were colonized by Britain, France,

four dummy variables are employed,one representing each colonizer.


hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than

British colonies are the excluded group in the regression analysis,

providing the baseline for the statistical test. The expectation is that the tests

negative regression coefficients suggesting that, on average, voter turnout will be lower in

countries than in former British colonies. In addition,we expectformer

will produce the lowest voter turnout rates, given their more limited efforts

populations in the legal and bureaucratic order during colonial times

been particularly repressive (Gilbert and Reynolds 2008, 320

Key Considerations: Ethnic and Religious Pluralism:Given the well-established ties between

ethnicity and party politics across Africa, Ethnic Pluralismis included as a key

rates across the countries studied. Our expectation is that

lead to lower voter turnout. The causal argument is concern over the

based political parties to sponsor election boycotts and electoral violence.

to deter people from showing themselves at polling stations, lest they be

Data for ethnic pluralism are retrieved from the last 25 annual

Specifically, we subtract from 100 the percentage of the

ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprise

tion, the variable’svalue is‘68.’ Scored as such, a largervalue implies

the largest ethnic group is a smaller percentage of the total population,and greater ethnic

mean ethnic pluralism value for all cases is 34.9 percent with a standard

measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data

obtained from the annual editions of the CIA World Factbook. Scores for religious pluralism

Senegal in 2007 and 2012 to 76.2 percent for Mozambique in 2012.

Senegal is about 94 percent Sunni Muslim and correspondingly the country is the mos

statesstudied. In Mozambique the largest religious group is Catholic,

comprises less than 25 percent of the country’s population. The average value for

We contacted IDEA concerning four issues we uncovered with their data. Two were simple copy


inconsistency in coding Total Votes for multi-round elections. Sometimes, first round numbers are

while other times it is second round numbers. Because of these problems, we turned to alternative sources

African Elections Database (AED), as it appears to be the most comprehensive

. IDEA and AED values are identical or nearly identical for many elections, but

Elections in Africa and Psephos as a means of triangulating on the

value. AED tended to match these other sources more often than IDEA.


(1999)for accuracy.We found

in each of the 15 African

Belgium, and

each colonizer.


hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than

s are the excluded group in the regression analysis,

s will produce

lower in any of

former Belgian and

, given their more limited efforts

during colonial times.

Reynolds 2008, 320-23).

established ties between

key predictor of

ur expectation is that greater ethnic

concern over the

sponsor election boycotts and electoral violence.

people from showing themselves at polling stations, lest they be

annual editions

of the population

ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprises 32

Scored as such, a largervalue implies

and greater ethnic

with a standard

measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data, again, are

Scores for religious pluralism

to 76.2 percent for Mozambique in 2012.

the country is the most religiously

. In Mozambique the largest religious group is Catholic,

The average value for

data. Two were simple copy-paste


round elections. Sometimes, first round numbers are used,

se problems, we turned to alternative sources

to be the most comprehensive

for many elections, but

as a means of triangulating on the


Scot Schraufnagel

7


Demographic Controls:As attested to in

positively correlated with voter turnout (Geys 2006, 653).

population is used here, as elsewhere

education system. Data were gathered from the

10 percent(Senegal in 1988) to

is a mean value of about 52 percent

Population Density is used as a proxy for access to vot

rural nature of many parts of Africa,

easier by reducing the distance necessary to travel

the number of people per square kilometer

Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

with Gabon in the middle single digits (3.8 persons per square kilometer in 1993) and Burundi

and Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the

last decade.

Classic Controls:Three additional

control considerations in voter turnout studies. The first

established and important control variable

(1989) suggest that when the chief executive and the legislature are elected

is increased media attention and

efforts (see also Geys2006, 652

‘an added election on the ballot spreads the cost of voting

variable is generated,scored‘1’

uncover a positive association with voter turnout

Database (2013).

SeminalElections is another

variance in voter turnout. Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has

found much higher rates in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we

score an election as ‘seminal’ if it is the first

many of these cases, individuals

different political parties for the first time in a generation (Bratton

The ability to have a democratic voice

increase the rate of voter involvement

is the first to occur after regime c

Data were gathered from the African Elections Database

The final variableincluded in

country in the year the election was held

Rights’ and ‘Civil Liberty’ scores,

et al. 2004, 921; Burkhart and Lewis

of the two dimensions range from 1 (most

from ‘2’ to ‘14’ when the indices

for varying degrees of democratic

lowest score, indicating greater freedom,

cycles (a combined score of 3)




As attested to in studies of other parts of the world, education tends to be

positively correlated with voter turnout (Geys 2006, 653). Literacy, as a percentage of

as elsewhere (Schraufnagel and Sqouraki 2005), as a proxy for

gathered from the CIA World Factbook. Literacy scores range from

(Senegal in 1988) to over 85 percent in Kenya during the 2000s. Across all cases there

percent.

is used as a proxy for access to voting stations. Given the scattered,

rural nature of many parts of Africa, it is expected that higher population densities make voting

easier by reducing the distance necessary to travel to polling stations. The variable is measured as

per square kilometer. Data were retrieved from the U

Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Density varies widely across Sub-Saharan Africa,


Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the

Three additionalvariables were included in the analysis as they are common

voter turnout studies. The first, Concurrent Elections

and important control variable in the voter mobilization literature. Cox and Munger

suggest that when the chief executive and the legislature are elected at the same time

and greater sums spent on campaigning and voter mobilization

2).Moreover, others note, because voting is typically a fixed cost,

an added election on the ballot spreads the cost of voting’ (Carter 1984, 201

for concurrent elections, and the expectation is that the test will

a positive association with voter turnout. Data were obtained from the African Elections

another common control variable in analysis of cross

Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has

in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we

if it is the first competitive election following regime change.

individuals were granted the ability to choose between candidates from

parties for the first time in a generation (Bratton and van de Walle 1997, 207)

have a democratic voice, along with the novelty of the enterprise

involvement relative to other elections. Elections are scored

regime change or a switch from single-party to multi-party elections.

African Elections Database (2013).

included in the model is a measure for the democratic characterof

in the year the election was held. We measure this using Freedom House

scores, indicators that appear in other works of a similar genre

Lewis-Beck 1994; Helliwell 1994). Freedom House scores

range from 1 (mostly free) to 7 (least free), resulting in a scale

the indices are combined. TheFreedom House score is intended to

democratic penetration in countries at the time the election was held

, indicating greater freedom, occurs in Ghana in both the 2008 and 2012 election

combined score of 3). Cameroon,with a total score of either 11 or 12throughout the


, education tends to be

, as a percentage of the total

as a proxy for a better

. Literacy scores range from

. Across all cases there

ing stations. Given the scattered,

that higher population densities make voting

The variable is measured as

retrieved from the United Nations

Saharan Africa,


Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the

variables were included in the analysis as they are common

lections, is a well-

Cox and Munger

at the same time there

and voter mobilization

voting is typically a fixed cost,

(Carter 1984, 201n). A dummy

that the test will

African Elections

in analysis of cross-national

Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has

in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we

competitive election following regime change. In

were granted the ability to choose between candidates from

van de Walle 1997, 207).

, along with the novelty of the enterprise is likely to

lections are scored ‘1’whenit

party elections.

democratic characterofthe

Freedom House's ‘Political

that appear in other works of a similar genre (Fornos

Helliwell 1994). Freedom House scores on each

free) to 7 (least free), resulting in a scale that ranges

intended to control

the election was held. The

2008 and 2012 election

11 or 12throughout the


Scot Schraufnagel

8


study period, represents the other extreme.

is positively correlated with voter turnout (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004

Sgouraki 2005, 48). Given the way the scale is

expected to associate with a lower

are expected to produce a negative coefficient.

Results

Results of the regression analysis

expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels

British colonies. Given the model configuration

baseline, we learn there has been about 13 percent greater voter tur

average, all else being equal. One possible

ofstate-managed elections in former French colonies

sample may be picking up the characte

van de Walle note (1997) those countries which liberalized the most

voter turnout) at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian

party regimes, many of which were former French colonies

this finding further study is justified. In the summary we will elaborate in more detail the two

competing theoretical explanations just offered.

(Table 2 goes about here. See appendix Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted b

Belgiancolonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than

French colonies after controlling for other factors

former British colonies. The single former

turnoutthan the former French colonies; however

turnout levels in Mozambique and former British colonies, all else being equal.

the former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Rwanda)

has included coups and in the case of Rwanda,

democratic experience does not seem to

process in a manner that would encourage

Both tests of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients

the direction hypothesized; although the value of the coefficient

size of the value for religious pluralism. Because these two variables

manner it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the

effect of ethnic pluralism suggests that as the largest ethnic group

(say from 70 to 75 percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else

being equal. Considering religious pluralism

from 65 to 60 percent)—indicating greater pluralism

8 A variable commonly used in cross

However, Gabon is the only country in our dataset with

enforced (IDEA). The lack of variation on this othe

the variable in this analysis.




, represents the other extreme. Others note that the degree of democracy

is positively correlated with voter turnout (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004; Schrau

en the way the scale is operationalized, higher scores (less freedom) are

lower level of voter turnout.8 Put differently, the regression results

are expected to produce a negative coefficient.

regression analysis can be found in Table 2 (see appendix). Contrary to base

expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels

. Given the model configuration, with former British colonies establishing the

baseline, we learn there has been about 13 percent greater voter turnout in French colonies, on

One possible explanation is the longer history and greater number

in former French colonies prior to independence. Alternatively, the

sample may be picking up the character of the regimes just prior to independence. Bratton and

van de Walle note (1997) those countries which liberalized the most (perhaps prompting greater

at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian

, many of which were former French colonies (188). Given the surprising nature of


competing theoretical explanations just offered.

See appendix) Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted b

colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than

after controlling for other factors, but also substantially lower voter turnout than

former British colonies. The single former Portuguese colony (Mozambique) had lower voter

turnoutthan the former French colonies; however, there is no statistical difference between voter

Mozambique and former British colonies, all else being equal. Results

the former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) are not surprising given recent history, which

in the case of Rwanda, genocidal civil war. The relative short or

democratic experience does not seem to have been sufficient to have legitimized

ocess in a manner that would encouragewidespread participation.

of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients

although the value of the coefficient for ethnic pluralism is double the

religious pluralism. Because these two variables are measured in the same

it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the

effect of ethnic pluralism suggests that as the largest ethnic group grows in size by five percent

percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else

being equal. Considering religious pluralism, as the largest religious group shrinks

indicating greater pluralism—there will be a correspondi

commonly used in cross-national tests of voter turnout is compulsory or mandatory voting.

Gabon is the only country in our dataset with mandatory voting, and in Gabon the law is not

enforced (IDEA). The lack of variation on this otherwise important consideration causes us to not include


egree of democracy, in general,

Schraufnagel and

(less freedom) are

Put differently, the regression results

Contrary to base

expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels than former

with former British colonies establishing the

nout in French colonies, on

longer history and greater number

Alternatively, the

r of the regimes just prior to independence. Bratton and

(perhaps prompting greater

at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian-ruled single-

Given the surprising nature of


Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted both former

colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than the former

, but also substantially lower voter turnout than

colony (Mozambique) had lower voter

there is no statistical difference between voter

Results regarding

recent history, which

short or truncated

legitimized the electoral

of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients in

for ethnic pluralism is double the

measured in the same

it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the

in size by five percent

percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else

shrinks in size (say

correspondingincrease in

national tests of voter turnout is compulsory or mandatory voting.

and in Gabon the law is not

rwise important consideration causes us to not include


Scot Schraufnagel

9


voter turnout of about .75 percent (.15 x 5), on average. Given

variable is about 70 percent, the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated

with about a 10.5 percent increase in vot

Results for literacy conf

consideration. The latter is strongly correlated with voter turnout (

multivariate testing it proves to be the variabl

Given much of Sub-Saharan Africa

noted above, it is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility

of polling stations. Hence, if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine

concerted effort to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher

turnout rates.

Two of the three classic

House consideration of democratic rights and liberties does not link

in the testing. It can be noted that a simple bivariate relationship is also not statistically

significant (r = .06; p< .60). This finding could be the result of

buying or the over-reporting of voting

Nichter 2008). If voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings

expect higher Freedom House scores (less openness) to comport with higher turnout values.

Using this sample of elections, c

interest, are associated with about 1

may also associate with higher

percent, all else being equal.

Summary

This researchtests a model of voter turnout

This type of query only became possible following

elections since the late 1980s and early 1990s

electoral processes has allowed this initial

voter turnout levels in Africa. S

which hasused a colonial legacy

for ethnic and religious pluralism and other considerations

parts of the world. A primary contribution has been the finding that French

colonies,aftercontrolling for population density

higher electoral participation rates than former British colonies.

Given theunexpected result

colonial legacy thesis seems warranted

be found in existing literature that might help to elucidate th

longer duration and greater number of state

colonies,prior to independence,

French colonies' had seven multi

may have‘locked in’ a kind of

elections as a legitimate means of citizen control

elections are not likely to have

their mere presence creates in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it

causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected




voter turnout of about .75 percent (.15 x 5), on average. Given the range of the religious pluralism

the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated

with about a 10.5 percent increase in voter turnout (70 x .15).

Results for literacy conform well to expectations, as does the population density

consideration. The latter is strongly correlated with voter turnout (r = .43; p< .001) and in the

multivariate testing it proves to be the variable most strongly linked,statistically, to voter turnout.

Saharan Africa isrural;this finding has important policy implications.

is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility

if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine

to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher

wo of the three classic control variables are statistically significant. Only the Freedom

House consideration of democratic rights and liberties does not link, statistically, to voter turnout


< .60). This finding could be the result of corruption, in the form of

reporting of voting, in more authoritarian settings (APSA Workshop

voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings


Using this sample of elections, concurrent elections, which tend to increase voter awareness and

are associated with about 11 percentincrease in voter turnout. Seminal elections, which

voter interest, arelinked to an increase in voter turnout

a model of voter turnout, across a sample of Sub-Saharan African nation

only became possible following asignificant turn toward consistent

and early 1990s (see Lancaster 1991-92). The relative normalcy of

electoral processes has allowed this initial testing of factors theoretically linked to variance in

Specifically, the research has been able to follow the line of work

a colonial legacy thesis to study democratic transitions in Africa, while controlling

for ethnic and religious pluralism and other considerations that matter for voter turnout in other

. A primary contribution has been the finding that French

for population density and other considerations,are associate

participation rates than former British colonies.

unexpected result regarding former French colonies additional scrutiny of the

warranted. There are two alternative theoretical arguments that can

existing literature that might help to elucidate the finding. First, it may be

longer duration and greater number of state-managed multi-party elections in former

to independence, is responsible for the finding. Lindberg (2006) has noted

seven multi-party elections prior to independenceand that these experiences

kind of institutional memorythat leads to contemporary acceptance of

elections as a legitimate means of citizen control (112).Put differently, it may be that

not likely to have a substantive effect on the lives of people participating

in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it

causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected


the range of the religious pluralism

the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated

as does the population density

< .001) and in the

to voter turnout.

his finding has important policy implications. As

is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility

if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine a

to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher

Only the Freedom

to voter turnout


corruption, in the form of vote

APSA Workshop 2008;

voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings we would


oncurrent elections, which tend to increase voter awareness and

. Seminal elections, which

increase in voter turnoutof about 10

n nation-states.

ward consistent multi-party

The relative normalcy of

of factors theoretically linked to variance in

research has been able to follow the line of work

while controlling

matter for voter turnout in other

. A primary contribution has been the finding that French

associated with

additional scrutiny of the

There are two alternative theoretical arguments that can

may be the case the

in former French

has noted former

and that these experiences

that leads to contemporary acceptance of

it may be that even when

a substantive effect on the lives of people participating in them,

in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it

causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected by de


Scot Schraufnagel

10


jure electoral experiences.9 Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former

European colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves

independent via plebiscite (Gilbert and Reynolds 2008

subsequent citizen judgment of electoral legitimacy.

We must also consider the contentions of Bratton and van de Walle (1997) who suggest

the type of regime change can influence subsequent democratic outcomes.

most recent switches from single

moderately exclusionary authoritarian regimes which liberalized the most

broader multi-party experiences

more in law than in fact. Put differently,

regimes, witnessed the greatest liberalization and made the largest leaps toward

When protests grew in the 1980s

hoped to remain in power, was more legitimate

1997, 187-88). Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the f

colonies in our sample and those nation

civilian single-party systems.

It is also important for us to

fractionalization. Early researche

voter turnout occurs under conditions of greater ethnic diversity

associates with more ethnic based political parties and more difficult elections

under conditions of ethnic diversity

moderates, people less enamored by politics, and others with justifiable fears related to electoral

violence are less likely to show themselves at poll

salient. If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic

cleavages. It has long been argued that

ethnicity, class, religion, or geography has important implications for democratic development

(La Palombara and Weiner 1966; on Nigeria see Jinadu 1985).

Interestingly, we find that

This is not to suggest that political parties should be based on religious affiliations. Instead, our

suspicions, based on previous research (Fish 200

country that citizen loyalty is to

assume there is some critical level or cut point that might cause a country’s citizens, in the

aggregate, to tip toward an apolitical posture that decreases the salience and value of elections.

Indeed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,

suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members

is over 10 percent lower, on average

preserving the full range of the religious pluralism variable.

Finally, the suite of control

expected. Only, the combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than

expect. A more authoritarian political posture is not statistically linked to less v

effect of fower civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election

9 Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something

akin to ‘democratic learning’ that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can

translate into thoughtful and meaningful electoral outcomes.




Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former

colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves

Gilbert and Reynolds 2008). This experience alone might be shaping

subsequent citizen judgment of electoral legitimacy.


of regime change can influence subsequent democratic outcomes. They note during the

from single-party to multi-party elections in Africa it was the subset of

moderately exclusionary authoritarian regimes which liberalized the most.Countries

s liberalized less, and military authoritarian regimes democratized

Put differently, the middle range of countries, civilian single

, witnessed the greatest liberalization and made the largest leaps toward democrati

in the 1980s, the next step for many of the middle-range regimes, i

was more legitimate multi-partyelections (Bratton and van de Walle

Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the f

colonies in our sample and those nation-states that Bratton and van de Walle characterize as

It is also important for us to reiterate our supporting findings regarding

. Early researchers on this topic likely are not surprised by our finding that lower

voter turnout occurs under conditions of greater ethnic diversity. Others note, fractionalization

associates with more ethnic based political parties and more difficult elections. Electora

diversity is often the norm. This study is suggesting that perhaps


violence are less likely to show themselves at polling stations when ethno-political rivalry is

If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic

argued that the factional basis of political parties, whether based on


(La Palombara and Weiner 1966; on Nigeria see Jinadu 1985).

Interestingly, we find that increased religious diversity may lead to higher vo


suspicions, based on previous research (Fish 2002), are that when a single religion dominates a

country that citizen loyalty is to their religion and not the political process. It is reasonable to



ed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,

suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members

is over 10 percent lower, on average, a finding that is stronger than what we obtained when

full range of the religious pluralism variable.

Finally, the suite of control variables incorporated into the model delivered results as

he combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than

A more authoritarian political posture is not statistically linked to less voter turnout. The

civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election

Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something

that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can

translate into thoughtful and meaningful electoral outcomes.


Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former

colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves

. This experience alone might be shaping


hey note during the

t was the subset of

Countries that had

and military authoritarian regimes democratized

civilian single-party

democratization.

regimes, if they

Bratton and van de Walle

Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the former French

states that Bratton and van de Walle characterize as

garding ethnic

rs on this topic likely are not surprised by our finding that lower

fractionalization

lectoral violence

is often the norm. This study is suggesting that perhaps


political rivalry is

If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic

, whether based on


increased religious diversity may lead to higher voter turnout.


), are that when a single religion dominates a

. It is reasonable to



ed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,

suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members, voter turnout

at we obtained when

incorporated into the model delivered results as

he combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than one would

oter turnout. The

civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election

Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something

that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can


Scot Schraufnagel

11


rigging in more authoritarian settings (APSA Work

our finding related to the control variables population

seminal elections should not be overlooked. What these findings suggest is that for all intents and

purposes, voter turnout in this sample of African elections, on some level,

in other parts of the world. Using the same control variables that others

desperate cultural and geographic contexts we find statistically signi

particular, our finding regarding population density is not only consistent with previous literature

(Schraufnagel and Sgouraki 200

turnout levels: more geographical

References

Adejumobi, S. (2000). Elections in Africa: A fading shadow of democracy.

Review, 21(1), 59-73.

African Elections Database.Retrieved

Anderson, L., & Dodd, L. (2005).

Nicaragua, 1990-2001 (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press).

Annet, A. (2001).Social fractionalization,

48(3), 561-592

APSA Workshop (2008). The 2008 APSA workshop on political participation: Dakar, Senegal, July 6

2008. PS: Political Science an

Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth.

Bates, R. H. (1983).Modernization, ethnic competition and the rationality of politics in contemporary

Africa. In States versus Ethnic Claims: Afr

V. A. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 152

Bates, R. H. (1994).The impulse to

Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa

Blais, A.(2000). To Vote or Not to Vote: The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory

University of Pittsburgh Press

Bossuroy, T., &Cogneau, D. (2008).Social mobility and colonial legacy

Paper from DIAL (Development, Institutions et Mondialisation).

Bratton, M., & Van de Walle, N.

Comparative Perspective.

Brown, S. (2001). Authoritarian leaders and multiparty elections in Africa: how foreign donors help to keep

Kenya’s Daniel arapMoi in power.

Brown, S. & Kaiser, P. (2007).Democratisations in Africa: attempts, hindranc

Quarterly, 28(6), 1131-1149.

Burkhart, R. E., & Lewis-Beck

thesis.American Political Science Review

Carr, A.(2013). Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/

Carter, J.R. (1984). Early projections and voter turnout in the 1980 presidential election.

195-202.

Chabal, P. (1998). A few considerations on democracy in Africa.

Cheru, F. (2012). Democracy and people power in Africa: still searching for the ‘political kingdom.’

World Quarterly, 33(2), 265

Collier, R. B.(1982). Regimes in Tropical Africa: Changing Forms of Supremacy, 1945

CA: University of California Press




rigging in more authoritarian settings (APSA Workshop 2008; Nichter 2008). The importance of

our finding related to the control variables population density, literacy, concurrent elections, and


this sample of African elections, on some level, is as predictable as it

in other parts of the world. Using the same control variables that others find

desperate cultural and geographic contexts we find statistically significant relationships. In


2005) but also points to a possible policy solution for raising voter

more geographically convenient polling stations.

Adejumobi, S. (2000). Elections in Africa: A fading shadow of democracy. International Political Science

.Retrieved August 20, 2013, from http://africanelections.tripod.com

Dodd, L. (2005).Learning Democracy: Citizen Engagement and Electoral Choice in

(Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press).

ractionalization, political instability, and the size of government.IMF Staff Papers,

APSA Workshop (2008). The 2008 APSA workshop on political participation: Dakar, Senegal, July 6

PS: Political Science and Politics, 41(4), 943-945.

Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth.Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1), 1-27.


States versus Ethnic Claims: African Policy Dilemmas, eds. Rothchild, D. &Olorunsola,

V. A. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 152-171.

mpulse to reform in Africa.In J. A.Widner(Ed.), Economic Change and Political

Saharan Africa(pp. 13-28). Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press

Vote or Not to Vote: The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory (

University of Pittsburgh Press).

Bossuroy, T., &Cogneau, D. (2008).Social mobility and colonial legacy in five African countries.

Paper from DIAL (Development, Institutions et Mondialisation).

, N.(1997).Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in

. New York: Cambridge University Press.


Kenya’s Daniel arapMoi in power. Third World Quarterly, 22(5), 725-739.

Brown, S. & Kaiser, P. (2007).Democratisations in Africa: attempts, hindrances and prospects.

1149.

Beck, M.(1994).Comparative democracy: The economic

American Political Science Review, 88, 903-910.

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive.Retrieved August 20, 2013, from

carr.net/

Carter, J.R. (1984). Early projections and voter turnout in the 1980 presidential election.Public Choice

Chabal, P. (1998). A few considerations on democracy in Africa.International Affairs, 74(2), 289

Cheru, F. (2012). Democracy and people power in Africa: still searching for the ‘political kingdom.’

, 33(2), 265-291.

Regimes in Tropical Africa: Changing Forms of Supremacy, 1945

University of California Press.


The importance of

concurrent elections, and


as predictable as it is

find important in

ficant relationships. In


) but also points to a possible policy solution for raising voter

International Political Science

http://africanelections.tripod.com/index.html

Learning Democracy: Citizen Engagement and Electoral Choice in

IMF Staff Papers,

APSA Workshop (2008). The 2008 APSA workshop on political participation: Dakar, Senegal, July 6-27,


, eds. Rothchild, D. &Olorunsola,

Economic Change and Political

Hopkins University Press.

(Pittsburgh, PA:

in five African countries. Working

Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in


es and prospects. Third World

conomic development

Retrieved August 20, 2013, from

Public Choice, 43,

, 74(2), 289-303.

Cheru, F. (2012). Democracy and people power in Africa: still searching for the ‘political kingdom.’ Third

Regimes in Tropical Africa: Changing Forms of Supremacy, 1945-1975.Berkeley,


Scot Schraufnagel

12


Cox, G.W., &Munger, M.C. (1989). Closeness, expenditures and turnout in the 1982 US house elections.

American Political Science Review

Dahl, R. A. (1989).Democracy and Its Critics

Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997).

of Economics, 112, 1203–

Eifert, B., Miguel, E., & Posner,

Africa.American Journal of Political Science

Englebert, P.(2000). Pre-colonial i

Africa.Political Research Quarterly

Eswaran, H., Almaraz, R., van den

Africa in Relation to Productivity

http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/papers/africa1.html

Ferree, K.E. (2010). The social origins of electoral volatil

40(4), 75-779.

Firmin-Sellers, K.(2000).Institutions,

Africa.Comparative Politics

Fish, M. S. (2002).Islam and Authoritarianism.

Fornos, C. A., Power, T. J.,& Garand,

2000.Comparative Political Studies

Freedom House.(2013). Freedom in the World

fromhttp://www.freedomhouse

Geys, B.(2006). Explaining voter t

663.

Gilbert, R., &Reynolds, J. T.(2008).

River, NJ: Pearson.

Hayek, F. A. (1960).The Constitution of Liberty

Helliwell, J. F. (1994). Empirical

Political Science, 24, 225-

Hoffman, B. D., & Long, J. D. (2013).Parties, ethnicity, and voting in African elections

Politics, 45(2), 127-146.

Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1994).

cases.International Security

Horowitz, D. (1985). Ethnic Groups in Conflict

Huntington, S. (1991).The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth

University of Oklahoma.

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance

2013, from http://www.idea.int/vt/index.cfm

Jinadu, L. Adele (1985).Federalism, the consociational state,

Journal of Federalism, 15(2), 71

Kakar, S. (1996).The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities, Religion, and Conflict

University of Chicago Press.

Kalyvas, S. (1996). The Rise of Christian Dem

Kalyvas, S. (2000). Commitment

Comparative Politics, 32(4), 379

Kostadinova, T. (2003).Voter turnout dynamics in post

Research, 42(6), 741-59.

Kostadinova, T, & Power, T. J. (2007) Does democratization depress participation?: Voter turnout in the

Latin American and Eastern European transitional democracies.

60(3), 363-377.





American Political Science Review, 83(1), 217-230.

Democracy and Its Critics. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

(1997).Africa’s growth tragedy: Policies and ethnic divisions.Quarterly Journal

–1250.

Posner, D. N.(2010).Political competition and ethnic identification

American Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 494-510.

institutions, post-colonial states, and economic development in

Political Research Quarterly, 53(7), 7-36.

Eswaran, H., Almaraz, R., van den Berg, E., & Reich, P. (1996).An Assessment of the Soil Resources of

Africa in Relation to Productivity. Retrieved October, 18, 2013,

http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/papers/africa1.html

Ferree, K.E. (2010). The social origins of electoral volatility in Africa.British Journal of Political Science

Institutions, context, and outcomes: Explaining French and British

Comparative Politics, 32(3), 253-272.

Authoritarianism.World Politics, 55(October), 4-37.

Garand, J. C.(2004). Explaining voter turnout in Latin America,

Comparative Political Studies, 37(8), 909-40.

Freedom in the World.Retrieved May 27, 2013,

http://www.freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world

turnout: A review of aggregate-level research.Electoral Studies

(2008).Africa in World History: From Prehistory to the Present

The Constitution of Liberty. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

Empirical linkages between democracy and economic growth.British Journal of

-248.

Hoffman, B. D., & Long, J. D. (2013).Parties, ethnicity, and voting in African elections

(1994). Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from

Security, 19(1), 5-40.

Ethnic Groups in Conflict.Berkely, CA: University of California Press.

The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.(2013). Voter Turnout.Retrieved August 20,

http://www.idea.int/vt/index.cfm

Jinadu, L. Adele (1985).Federalism, the consociational state, and ethnic conflict in Nigeria.

, 15(2), 71-100.

The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities, Religion, and Conflict

University of Chicago Press.

The Rise of Christian Democracy in Europe. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

Kalyvas, S. (2000). Commitment problems in emerging democracies: The case of religious parties.

, 32(4), 379-399.

Kostadinova, T. (2003).Voter turnout dynamics in post-communist Europe.European Journal of Political


Latin American and Eastern European transitional democracies. Political Research Quarterly



Quarterly Journal

dentification in

evelopment in tropical

An Assessment of the Soil Resources of

October, 18, 2013, from

British Journal of Political Science,

rench and British rule in West

urnout in Latin America, 1980 to

May 27, 2013,

Electoral Studies, 25, 637-

Africa in World History: From Prehistory to the Present.Upper Saddle

British Journal of

Hoffman, B. D., & Long, J. D. (2013).Parties, ethnicity, and voting in African elections.Comparative

onflict: Evidence from

.Berkely, CA: University of California Press.

Century. Norman, OK:

.Retrieved August 20,

and ethnic conflict in Nigeria.Publius: The

The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities, Religion, and Conflict. Chicago, IL:

. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

in emerging democracies: The case of religious parties.

European Journal of Political


Political Research Quarterly,


Scot Schraufnagel

13


La Palombara, J., & Weiner, M., Editors (1966).

NJ: Princeton University Press.

La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F.,

of Law, Economics and Organization

Lancaster, C. (1991-92). Democracy in Africa.

Lindberg, S. I. (2006). Democracy and Elections in Africa

Press.

Lindberg, S. I., & Morrison, M. K. C.

evidence from Ghana.Political Science Quarterly

Mamdani, M.(1996).Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism

Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

Moehler, D. C. (2009). Critical citizens and submissive subjects: Election losers and winners in Africa.

British Journal of Political Science

Mozaffar, S. (2002).Patterns of electoral governance

Political Science Review, 23(1), 85

Mozaffar, S., Scaritt, J. R., &Galaich, G. (2003).Electoral institutions, ethnopolitical cleavages, and party

systems in Africa’s emerging democracies.

Nichter, S. (2008).Vote buying or turnout buying?Machine politics and the secret ballot.

Science Review, 102(1), 19

Ordeshook, P. C., &Shvetsova, O. V.

parties.American Journal of Political Science

Posner, D. N.(2004).Measuring ethnic

48(4), 849-863.

Posner, D. N. (2005).Institutions and Ethnic

Reilly, Benjamin (2000-01). Democracy, ethnic fragmentation, and internal conflict: Confused theories,

faulty data, and the ‘crucial case

Rustow, D. (1970). Transitions to d

Schraufnagel, S., &Sgouraki, B.(2005).

49(1), 39-69.

Schubert, J. (2010). ‘Democratisation’ and the consolidation of political authority in post

Angola.Journal of Southern African Studies

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Es

and Projections Section.

October 8, 2013, from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

United Nations Statistics Division

geographical sub-regions, and selected economic and other groupings

from http://millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm

Varshney, A.(2007). Ethnicity and

Comparative Politics. New Yo

Wiseman, J. A. (1993). Democracy and the new political pluralism in Africa: causes, consequences and

significance. Third World Quarterly

Young, C. (1976). The Politics of Cultural Pluralism




La Palombara, J., & Weiner, M., Editors (1966). Political Parties and Political Development

NJ: Princeton University Press.

F.,Shleifer, A., &Vishny, R. W.(1999). The quality of government

of Law, Economics and Organization, 15(1), 222-279.

92). Democracy in Africa.Foreign Policy, 85(winter), 148-165.

Democracy and Elections in Africa. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University

M. K. C.(2008).Are African voters really ethnic or clientelistic? Survey

Political Science Quarterly, 123(1), 95-122.

Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism

Princeton University Press.


British Journal of Political Science, 39(2), 345-366.

Mozaffar, S. (2002).Patterns of electoral governance in Africa’s emerging democracies.

, 23(1), 85-101.


systems in Africa’s emerging democracies.American Political Science Review, 97(3), 379

Nichter, S. (2008).Vote buying or turnout buying?Machine politics and the secret ballot.American Political

, 102(1), 19-31.

&Shvetsova, O. V.(1994).Ethnic heterogeneity, district magnitude, and the

American Journal of Political Science, 38, 100-123.

thnic fractionalization in Africa.American Journal of Political Science

Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press

01). Democracy, ethnic fragmentation, and internal conflict: Confused theories,

crucial case’ of Papua New Guinea. International Security, 25(3),

democracy: Toward a dynamic model. Comparative Politics

(2005).Voter turnout in Central and South America.The Latin Americanist

‘Democratisation’ and the consolidation of political authority in post

Journal of Southern African Studies, 36(3), 657-672.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Es

ion. (2013).World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

United Nations Statistics Division.(2013).Composition of macro geographical (continental) regions,

regions, and selected economic and other groupings. Retrieved

http://millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm

Ethnicity and ethnic conflict.In C.Boix,&S. C. Stokes (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of

New York: Oxford University Press.


Third World Quarterly, 14(3), 439-449.

The Politics of Cultural Pluralism. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press.


Political Parties and Political Development. Princeton,

overnment.Journal

Johns Hopkins University

lientelistic? Survey

Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism.


in Africa’s emerging democracies.International


, 97(3), 379-390.

American Political

nitude, and the number of

American Journal of Political Science,

: Cambridge University Press.

01). Democracy, ethnic fragmentation, and internal conflict: Confused theories,

, 25(3), 162-185.

Comparative Politics, 2, 337-363.

The Latin Americanist,

‘Democratisation’ and the consolidation of political authority in post-war

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.Retrieved

geographical (continental) regions,

. Retrieved June 5, 2013,

The Oxford Handbook of


. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press.


Scot Schraufnagel

14


Appendix

Table 1.

Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout ValueCountry Colonizer

Benin France

Botswana Britain

Burkina Faso France

Burundi Belgium

Cameroon France

Gabon France

Gambia Britain

Ghana Britain

Kenya Britain

Malawi Britain

Mozambique Portugal

Rwanda Belgium

Senegal France

Tanzania Britain

Togo France

Table 2.

Turnout of Voting Age Population in 15 Select African NationGeneralized Least Squares Regression

Colonial Power (Britain omitted):

France

Belgium

Portugal

Key Considerations:

Ethnic Pluralism

Religious Pluralism

Demographic Controls:

Population Density

% Population Literate

Classic Controls:

Concurrent Election

Seminal Election

Freedom House (combined)

Constant

Wald Chi2

R2 (overall)

n

*** p< .001; ** p< .01; * p< .05; tp< .10 (one

Note: Standard errors clustered around 15 country values.




Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout ValueYears Included Avg. Turnout of VAP

1991, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2001,

2003, 2006, 2007, 2011 70%

1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 48%

1991, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2002,

2005, 2007, 2010, 2012 35%

2005, 2010 65%

1988, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2004,

2007, 2011 49%

1993, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2009,

2011 43%

1996, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2006,

2007, 2011, 2012 48%

1992 (2), 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008,

2012 66%

1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2013 48%

1993, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 75%

1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 51%

2003, 2008, 2010 92%

1988, 1993 (2), 1998, 2000, 2001,

2007 (2), 2012 (2) 36%

1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 52%

1992, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2003,

2005, 2007, 2010 80%

Turnout of Voting Age Population in 15 Select African Nation-States:Multi-Party Elections, 1988Generalized Least Squares Regression for Cross-Sectional Time-Series Data

Exp. Sign Coefficient (robust s.e.)

- 13.01 (4.02)***

- -55.76(11.25)***

- -6.71 (8.17)

- -.30(.06) ***

+ .15 (.08) *

+ .28 (.05) ***

+ .22 (.09) **

+ 11.31 (5.22) *

+ 9.80 (4.22)*

- -.97 (.74)

27.14 (6.97) ***

6915.32 ***

.55

92

(one-tailed tests)

Note: Standard errors clustered around 15 country values.


Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout Value Avg. Turnout of VAP

Party Elections, 1988-2013


Scot Schraufnagel

15


Author Biographies

Scot Schraufnagel is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois

University. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer, serving in Sierra Leone, West Africa. His research

interests include cross-national voter turnout, politic

three books and his research appears in leading political science journals such as the

Political Science and Political Science Quarterly

Peter Gowen is an Online Analytics Coor

Center at Northern Illinois University. He has MA degrees in both computer science and political science

from Northern Illinois University.




is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois


national voter turnout, political parties, and legislative processes. He is the author of

three books and his research appears in leading political science journals such as the American Journal of

Political Science Quarterly.

is an Online Analytics Coordinator for the Faculty Development and Instruction Design



is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois


al parties, and legislative processes. He is the author of

American Journal of

dinator for the Faculty Development and Instruction Design


A Cross-National Comparison of Voter Turnout in 15 Sub ... Cross-National... · of Voter Turnout in...

Documents

Transcript of A Cross-National Comparison of Voter Turnout in 15 Sub ... Cross-National... · of Voter Turnout in...