A Blueprint for Greece’s Recovery in a Consolidating Europe Yanis Varoufakis Minister of Finance...
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Transcript of A Blueprint for Greece’s Recovery in a Consolidating Europe Yanis Varoufakis Minister of Finance...
A Blueprint for Greece’s Recovery in a Consolidating Europe
Yanis VaroufakisMinister of FinanceHellenic Republic
7th May 2015
Source: European Commission (2014), IMF (2014).
IMF Baseline Scenario for the Evolution of Debt 2014 – 2019 (% of GDP) - Contribution by factor
Backward Induction
Dynamic inconsistency
Austerity vs nominal GDP Growth 2009 to 2014
Structural Deficit Reduction
Nominal GDP Reduction
Nominal GDP Increase
Wage decline vs Export Growth
Looking Forward - InvestmentPrivatisations – public equity stake
Development Bank (DevBank)to mobilise public assets DevBank collaborates with EIB , Juncker Plan etc
DevBank’s shares transferred to pension funds
Looking Forward – Private banks
• Identify the size/composition of NPLs at each bank.
• Establish the correct special purpose entity structure (BB)
• Swaps that un-clog the circuits of credit
Looking Forward – Real Economy
Looking Forward – Synergistic Reforms
Looking Forward – Democratic Governance Reforms
Elements of an AgreementImmediate reforms
• Fiscal plans and a sensible DSA• Privatisations focused on investment, gvt
equity• VAT reform• An IRS-like Tax and Customs Commission,
under the Parliament’s jurisdiction• Pension reform• Judicial, out-of-court workouts
Elements of an AgreementBeyond June
• Investment Package• Public Debt Management• Anti-Poverty Drive
THANK YOU