9 th Euroindicators Working Group Luxembourg, 4 th & 5 th December 2006 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key...

99thth Euroindicators Working Group Euroindicators Working Group

Luxembourg, 4Luxembourg, 4thth & 5 & 5thth December 2006 December 2006

Eurostat - Unit D1Key Indicators for European Policies

New Methodological PagesNew Methodological Pages

Doc 179/ 06Doc 179/ 06

Eurostat - Unit D1Key Indicators for European Policies

Item III - 3 of the AgendaItem III - 3 of the Agenda

By Gian Luigi Mazzi

IntroductionIntroduction

Euro-indicators special topic : comprehensive information on infra-annual statistics - PEEIs To media Researchers Academics Students Official statisticians etc.

Euro-indicators content: Data and metadata News and quality issues Methodological pages (under development)

Topics for the methodological pagesTopics for the methodological pages

PEEIs Flash Estimates Back recalculation Benchmarking Qualitative surveys Coincident and leading indicators Seasonal adjustment Cycle extraction Turning point dating and detection Convergence and synchronisation

PEEIs pagesPEEIs pages

Increase the visibility of PEEIs Better clarify the meaning and the underlying

projects of PEEIs Better explain similarities, synergies and differences

between PEEIs and Euroindicators.

Development of a set of pages on PEEIs

PEEIs pages structure (1)PEEIs pages structure (1)

Background List of PEEIs History

PEEIs Political framework Action Plan COM(2002) 661 final ECF Status Report New legal acts …


PEEIs Political framework Action Plan COM(2002) 661 final ECF Status Report New legal acts …


Improvement policies PEEIs flash estimates Filling gaps Production process acceleration Extending coverage Higher frequency Production of guidelines


Comparison between European Union and U.S. Comparison tables with metadata on structural differences


Quality issues for PEEIs Links to synthetic quality tables for PEEIs

Flash EstimatesFlash Estimates

Methodology Alternative methodologies for flash estimates GDP and HICP Ongoing projects on flash estimates

Results: available test results from flash estimates projects

Software: FLASH program and other flash estimation packages

Bibliography

Back recalculationBack recalculation

Methodology Eurostat methodology for back recalculation

Links with DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD back recalculation methodologies

Eurostat test results

Software

Bibliography

BenchmarkingBenchmarking

Methodology Eurostat studies on benchmarking Eurostat methodology for a monthly indicator of euro area

economic activity Links to DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD

benchmarking methodologies

Eurostat test results on a monthly indicator of euro area economic activity

Software New Ecotrim, Other benchmarking packages

Bibliography

Qualitative surveysQualitative surveys

Methodology Methodological studies on quantification methods Alternative construction of confidence and sentiment

indicators and seasonal adjustment Links to DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD

methodological studies Eurostat test results on

Alternative quantifications Seasonal adjustment Confidence and sentiment indicators

Software Bibliography

Coincident and leading indicatorsCoincident and leading indicators

Methodology Eurostat methodologies for the construction of a coincident

indicator of GDP and Industrial Production Links with DG ECFIN, Members States, ECB, OECD and

private institutes methodologies on coincident and leading indicators

Results Comparative table on existing euro area leading indicators Eurostat test results on the coincident indicators of GDP

and Industrial Production


Seasonal adjustment Seasonal adjustment Methodology

Eurostat guidelines for seasonal adjustment ECB recommendations for seasonal adjustment Eurostat and ECB recommendations for QNA seasonal

adjustment Comparative analysis for alternative seasonal adjustment

methods Eurostat test results on alternative seasonal

adjustment of euro area and EU aggregates Software

New Demetra Links to Tramo-Seats, X-12, X-13 A-S and other relevant

packages Bibliography

Trend-Cycle estimates Trend-Cycle estimates

Methodology Alternative definitions of cyclical fluctuations Eurostat and other methodologies for the estimation of

growth cycle and output gap BUSY project

Eurostat test results on alternative trend-cycle decompositions

Software BUSY Links to GAP and other relevant packages

Bibliography

Turning point dating and detectionTurning point dating and detection

Methodology Alternative methods for dating and detection of turning

points Eurostat methodology for the construction of a statistical

integrated chronology of turning points Links to existing chronologies of turning points Links to existing turning points coincident and leading

indicators Eurostat test results

Comparative tables on existing turning point chronologies Statistical integrated chronology of turning points


Convergence and synchronisationConvergence and synchronisation

Methodology

Convergence and synchronisation measures

Results

Software

Bibliography

ConclusionsConclusions

A real added value for the Euro-indicators special topic

Significant workload for the Euro-indicators team

Requests to the Working Group:

Give its advice on the proposed list of topics Suggest improvements and/or modifications to the list of

topics Contribute to the different topics by supplying the Euro-

indicators team with all necessary information

9 th Euroindicators Working Group Luxembourg, 4 th & 5 th December 2006 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key...

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