6 April 2006

APECExpert Group on Energy Efficiency &

Conservation

Exploring Roles for EGEE&C in Transport Efficiency

with assistance from IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

Lee Schipper 2000

2

Supply Side IEA Energy Outlook 2005

• World demand for energy grows 50% by 2030• 83% of that growth will be oil • MENA – critical role in future supply

– share of MENA reserves > share of current production.

• MENA increasingly important to trade• 30 – 45% of world oil trade in 2030

• Reference scenario; $40/bbl2010 to $65 2030

3

IEA deferred investment scenario

• Reference scenario requires $Bn56 per year extraction/refining investment

• If that doesn’t happen…

• Deferred investment scenario gives oil prices 32% higher in 2030

• $80/bbl in 2030? + increase in other fuels

• Issue is not the money

4

World Alternative Policy Scenario

• Significant slowing of energy demand growth

• $Bn1000 investment in EE /RE; gives -$Bn7000 saving

cf $Bn6000 Deferred Investment.

• Important to make good start now

• Needs more than market signals

What role for EGEE&C?

5

Transport is critical to APEC economies

• Market access: no transport = no market– Commodity economies based on shipping– Services economies based on air travel

• Transport is critical to liberalised trade

• Not accounted for. Kyoto etc exclude international transport

• What impact future fuel cost on trade?

6

7

Key Developments in Travel• Travel in IEA: Energy rising

– Rise in Mobility with GDP, only slight Saturation – Small Savings except Air Travel, cars in N. America

• New Zealand– Big Rise in Travel over Entire Period: Incomes?– Boost in Car Ownership with Import of Used Cars– Good Fuel Savings (~20%) with medium sized Cars– Average Share of Collective Modes – Overall Picture: High Travel Relative to GDP

8

Per Capita Travel by Mode

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

20000

22500

25000

US

73

US

95

Au

str

alia 7

3

Au

str

alia 9

5

NZ

eala

nd

74

NZ

eala

nd

95

Can

ad

a 8

4

Can

ad

a 9

5

Jap

an

73

Jap

an

95

EU

R-4

73

EU

R-4

94

NO

-4 7

3

NO

-4 9

3

Neth

erl

an

ds 8

0

Neth

erl

an

ds 9

5

Pa

ss

en

ge

r k

m /

ca

pit

a

Water

Domestic Air

Rail, Tram, Metro

Bus

Cars and Household Light Trucks

9

Car and Personal Light Trucks Ownership and GDP

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000Per capita GDP, 1990 US$ PPP

Cars

/ 1

000 P

eo

ple

Australia

US

Canada

W. Germany

UK

Sweden

Japan

New Zealand

10

Car Use and GDP

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000

Per capita GDP, 1990 US$ PPP

Ve

hic

le K

m /

ca

pit

a(c

ars

an

d h

ou

se

ho

ld l

igh

t tr

uc

ks

)

Australia US

Canada W. Germany

Denmark UK

Sweden Netherlands

Japan New Zealand

11

On-road Fuel intensity and Carbon intensity of Automobiles

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Wei

gh

ted

Ave

rag

e o

f G

aso

lin

e an

d D

iese

l F

uel

In

ten

sity

, L

iter

G

aso

lin

e/10

0 km

Australia US

Canada W. Germany

Denmark UK

Sweden Japan

New Zealand

kg C

arbo

n / 100 km

11.67

4.3

6.14

9.21

Yaris

12

Key Developments for Freight• Freight In IEA: Energy rising

– Increases in Goods mobility with GDP, more trucks– Modest savings too small to offset mobility rise– Some Big Savers in Intensity: US, Australia

• New Zealand– Freight/GDP like Nordic Countries – Big Decline in Trucking Energy Intensity – Large Increase in Trucking Share. – Average Aggregate Freight Intensity– Small Decline in Freight Energy/GDP

13

Freight Haulage by Mode and GDP

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

EU

R-4

73

EU

R-4

95

NO

-4 7

3

NO

-4 9

5

US

73

US

95

JA

P 7

3

JA

P 9

5

AU

S 7

3

AU

S 9

5

NZ

74

NZ

95

Th

ou

san

d T

on

ne-

km /

Un

it o

f G

DP

(90

US

$ P

PP

) ships

rail

trucks

14

Trucking Energy Intensities

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

MJ

pe

r to

nn

e-k

m

US UK

w. Germany New Zealand

Australia Sweden

Denmark

15

Options

• Few alternatives to 46MJ/kg energy density of oil

• Alternatives exist for non-transport uses

• Mobile energy to stationary energy options for land based transport - modal changes essential

• But international transport?

16

What role for EGEE&C

What role for APEC EGEE&C in transport?

17

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