378 sspin2011 ericnewman
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Transcript of 378 sspin2011 ericnewman
Globalization Pillar
Eric Newman
Not all countries look like China
Or Brazil
Some look like this
National differences
• Social rather than legal contracts• Corruption• Postal systems• Different rates and types of piracy• General rule
– Law, primary care, nursing, building, civil/electrical engineering veers toward local, culture bound
– Math, hard sciences, medical specialties tend to be more universal
… different in
• The role of intermediaries can vary, e.g. in Japan, libraries have less influence on budgets, less command of English
• Demographics vary- China is building, opening universities; Japan is consolidating them.
• Prices – China are a fraction of ours (but so are salaries)– Imported book markup capped by law in India– Japan and Europe prices are higher.
Publishing issues
• Multiple publication, copyright and medical ethics• English language ability may not match quality of the
underlying science• Large clinical studies less common• Some places in China offer a bounty based on Impact
Factor• In Japan, books monitoring where your best chances
of being published are based on nationality• Cross-national cooperation growing in China- US, but
also Australia, Japan, Korea
Areas of scholarly publishing vary
• Each column represents a country; each color a subject area
• Look at the different mix, one country with 75% of the papers from Natural Sciences, but negligible Medicine.
Patterns of Collaboration and Citation
• France produces physics and chemistry papers with more engineering applications
• Germany more theoretical
• Spain emphasizes agricultural applications
• China and Japan applied mathematics
World by Scientific Research 2001
© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
STMS in 2020? 2030?
Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
2001, Watch China, India & Brazil
© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
2020, 2030 Again-China, India, Brazil
Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
Global Forecasting
BRICs
• Goldman Sachs coined the term BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in 2001
• Drew attention to the growing importance of these economies to world growth
• Forecast China surpassing Germany, UK and Japan in the size of its economy
Key Economic Drivers
• Demographic trends• GDP trends• Exchange rates trends• Research and Development spending• Education• Political and Currency stability • Legal system and corruption
Population Pyramids as destiny
China 1982 China 2000 China 2030UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11
China’s Demographic DividendUN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 14
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
%
Producers3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5% Consumers0.0%
-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%
1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042
Population Pyramids as destiny
China 1982, China 2000, Japan 1950 China 2030India, Africa 2010 Japan 2010, 2030
UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11 Europe 2020
GDP % Growth
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
ChinaIndiaJapanEast & South AsiaWorld
World Economic Outlook 2010
R&D % Spend by RegionSEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
05
1015202530354045
North America
Europe Asia-Pacific Rest of World
1996- $525 Billion
2007- $1.1 Trillion
R&D Spending $ Billions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
United StatesEU-27Asia-8
SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
R&D DemographicsAverage Annual Growth %
in number researchers 1995-2007SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
Tertiary Education by Country
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
USA Russia Japan China India German UK Brazil
• 1980 (73 million) • 2000 (194 million)
Scholarly Publishing Drivers
• Educational spending and enrollment• Numbers of and income of professionals• Government policies and library budgets• Patents, pharmaceutical spending• Language:
– English completely supplants the local language in India and some small but rich markets- SE Asia, Scandinavia.
– But local language predominates for Practitioners in larger countries- Germany, Japan, China, Brazil
Payoff: China’s % share of research
05
10152025
1999-20032004-08
Dan Strempel
• Simba Information has been serving the publishing industry since 1975
• Dan and I working together since 2007• Goldman Sachs also uses Simba!