3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOWYou never want to load your redraft roster with too...

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You never want to load your redraft roster with too many rookies. That’s especially true this year, when the NFL Draft gave us just 4 RBs and 9 WRs among the 1st 3 rounds of picks. By comparison, the 2015 draft offered up 8 RBs over the 1st 3 rounds, along with 13 wideouts. But does that make 2016’s class a shallow talent pond only worthy of fishing for dynasty owners? Not at all. 3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOW Look again just to last season, when 3rd-round rookie David Johnson began the season 3rd on Arizona’s depth chart before finishing it 8th among all PPR backs. Fourth-rounders Buck Allen and Jeremy Langford cracked the top 30, despite opening the year behind established starters and finishing it on losing teams. Thomas Rawls ranked 26th among RBs in non-PPR scoring despite starting only 7 games after arriving as an undrafted free agent. Fifth-round pick Karlos Williams became just the 4th player in league history to score in each of his 1st 5 games, despite sharing the Buffalo backfield with workhorse LeSean McCoy. We’ve learned from my colleague Jared Smola’s research into recent RB performance that scoring is spreading around the pool. Rather than huge value being concentrated in the early-round picks, it’s becoming easier to turn your 3rd, 4th or even 5th fantasy back into a starter by season’s end. That’s where this year’s trio of rookie sleepers comes in … (Note: Find in-depth profiles on 28 of this year’s most important rookies right here.) C.J. PROSISE, RB, SEAHAWKS If you watched any tape of this guy in college, then you saw a dynamic player with more than just speed. Prosise already looked like a RB in 2015, just his 1st full year of converting from WR. Any draftnik who compared him with fellow Notre Dame WR-turned-RB Theo Riddick was just being lazy. He landed in Seattle as the 4th RB off the NFL Draft board, with a clear path to at least a strong backfield receiving role. Marshawn Lynch’s injury-riddled final season allowed rookie Thomas Rawls to lead the team in carries, grabbing a 29.4% share of the rushing attempts before ending his season with a broken leg. But the Seahawks didn’t favor Rawls in the passing game. The rookie drew only 13.8% of the targets Seattle threw to RBs. Lynch beat him in that category, as did Fred Jackson -- despite looking D-O-N-E overall. Enter Prosise as the shiny, new Fred-Jax. Jackson’s role produced a nice 32-257-2 receiving line, even as he played only 23.8% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. A healthy Prosise should at least double that playing time. And then there’s the matter of Rawls’ health. As of this writing, we’re still waiting for Rawls to be cleared for field action. Even if he gets back by the start of training camp, there’s a chance his offseason of rehab instead of prep training leads to some 2016 lag. If Rawls

Transcript of 3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOWYou never want to load your redraft roster with too...

Page 1: 3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOWYou never want to load your redraft roster with too many rookies. That’s especially true this year, when the NFL Draft gave us just

You never want to load your redraft roster with too many rookies. That’s especially true this year, when the NFL Draft gave us just 4 RBs and 9 WRs among the 1st 3 rounds of picks.

By comparison, the 2015 draft offered up 8 RBs

over the 1st 3 rounds, along with 13 wideouts.

But does that make 2016’s class a shallow talent pond only worthy of fishing for dynasty owners? Not at all.

3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOW

Look again just to last season, when 3rd-round rookie David Johnson began the season 3rd on Arizona’s depth chart before finishing it 8th among all PPR backs. Fourth-rounders Buck Allen and Jeremy Langford cracked the top 30, despite opening the year behind established starters and finishing it on losing teams.

Thomas Rawls ranked 26th among RBs in non-PPR scoring despite starting only 7 games after arriving as an undrafted free agent. Fifth-round pick Karlos Williams became just the 4th player in league history to score in each of his 1st 5 games, despite sharing the Buffalo backfield with workhorse LeSean McCoy.

We’ve learned from my colleague Jared Smola’s research into recent RB performance that scoring is spreading around the pool. Rather than huge value being concentrated in the early-round picks, it’s becoming easier to turn your 3rd, 4th or even 5th fantasy back into a starter by season’s end.

That’s where this year’s trio of rookie sleepers comes in …

(Note: Find in-depth profiles on 28 of this year’s most important rookies right here.)

C.J. PROSISE, RB, SEAHAWKS

If you watched any tape of this guy in college, then you saw a dynamic player with more than just speed. Prosise already looked like a RB in 2015, just his 1st full year of converting from WR. Any draftnik who compared him with fellow Notre Dame WR-turned-RB Theo Riddick was just being lazy.

He landed in Seattle as the 4th RB off the NFL Draft board, with a clear path to at least a strong backfield receiving role. Marshawn Lynch’s injury-riddled final season allowed rookie Thomas Rawls to lead the team in carries, grabbing a 29.4% share of the rushing attempts before ending his season with a broken leg. But the Seahawks didn’t favor Rawls in the passing game.

The rookie drew only 13.8% of the targets Seattle threw to RBs. Lynch beat him in that category, as did Fred Jackson -- despite looking D-O-N-E overall. Enter Prosise as the shiny, new Fred-Jax.

Jackson’s role produced a nice 32-257-2 receiving line, even as he played only 23.8% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. A healthy Prosise should at least double that playing time. And then there’s the matter of Rawls’ health.

As of this writing, we’re still waiting for Rawls to be cleared for field action. Even if he gets back by the start of training camp, there’s a chance his offseason of rehab instead of prep training leads to some 2016 lag. If Rawls

Page 2: 3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOWYou never want to load your redraft roster with too many rookies. That’s especially true this year, when the NFL Draft gave us just

DEANDRE WASHINGTON, RAIDERS

Washington joins a backfield with a more established starter than Seattle’s -- but Latavius Murray’s status might be even shakier than that of Rawls.

The 4th-year back heads into the final year of his rookie contract with just lukewarm public support from HC Jack Del Rio.

“He was solid. He would tell you there’s more out there,” Del Rio told CSN Bay Area in March. “He’s still just scratching the surface. There’s a lot more upside and opportunities to break a tackle or make a guy miss or hit the hole just right. Another year in the system will help him as well.”

He added that the team would pick up another RB but that it wasn’t a “glaring need.” And then they waited until Round 5 of the draft to address it.

But when Oakland (Las Vegas?) did, it picked a player who caught 124 passes across 4 seasons at Texas Tech. Washington also carried 421 times across his final 2 college seasons, including a 233-1,492-14 senior campaign. He averaged 6.1 yards per rush across 2 years as the feature back. And just in case you thought the rookie a mere 3rd-down back, GM Reggie McKenzie dispelled that by deeming Washington a “complete back.”

Like Prosise in Seattle, Washington should at least see significant receiving work right away. Football Outsiders rated Murray 54th and 55th among 58 qualifying RBs in its main receiving efficiency metrics last season. And if Murray doesn’t scratch beyond the surface with his rushing, the rookie might just command more touches.

misses any time or even looks like he needs his load lightened, we’d bet on the 6’0, 220-pound Prosise holding up just fine to a bigger load.

To recap: That’s a big, speedy rookie in 1 of the league’s most run-heavy offenses with a clear path to a significant immediate role and potential for more. And you should be able to get him as your 3rd or 4th RB in summer drafting. Do it.

KENNETH DIXON, RAVENS

Dixon faces the most hurdles among these 3 in his path to 2016 fantasy relevance.

Justin Forsett returns from a broken arm, which shouldn’t turn into a lingering issue. Last year’s 4th-round pick, Buck Allen, took over the backfield and performed more efficiently than Forsett in the passing game (though less so as a runner). And – don’t laugh – Baltimore also added a slimmed-down and reportedly rededicated Trent Richardson this offseason. Throw in also-slimmer Terrance West and still-sticking-around Lorenzo Taliaferro, and you have a bona fide crowd.

Dixon arrives as the NCAA’s #2 all-time TD scorer (87 total). He racked up 802 carries and 87 receptions across 4 years as a starter while flashing receiver-level skills and deceptive finishing strength on his runs.

Page 3: 3 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WHO WILL HELP YOU WIN NOWYou never want to load your redraft roster with too many rookies. That’s especially true this year, when the NFL Draft gave us just

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Unless Richardson is truly reborn and ready to actually read NFL blocking, we’d deem Dixon the best all-around back in Baltimore right away. The crowd muddies his outlook, but it should also suppress his draft position throughout the summer.

Be wary if Dixon’s ADP climbs a lot higher than his May position late in Round 9. But if it doesn’t, you’re looking at a 4th – or even 5th – fantasy back with a 3-down skill set in an offense that needs playmakers.