2Q2015 Lee & Associates Economic Metrics

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Transcript of 2Q2015 Lee & Associates Economic Metrics

  • Lee & AssociatesReal Estate Economics Metrics TrackerSecond Quarter 2015

  • ISection One

    Unemployment and Jobs Data

  • National

    141,840,000: Total number of nonfarm payroll employment, June 2015 (SA) 66,117: 10-Year (2005-2015) average number of jobs added per month 223,000: Number of jobs added June 2015 5.3%: June 2015 Unemployment Rate (SA) 7.0%: 10-Year (July 2005 - June 2015) Unemployment Rate Average

    Bureau of Labor Statistics

    National unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% June 2015. The lowest rate since April 2008 at 5%. We're gradually edging downwards to pre-recession rates which are below 5%. Employers added 223,000 jobs in June (preliminary figure).

    7.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    Jun-

    05

    Feb-

    06

    Oct

    -06

    Jun-

    07

    Feb-

    08

    Oct

    -08

    Jun-

    09

    Feb-

    10

    Oct

    -10

    Jun-

    11

    Feb-

    12

    Oct

    -12

    Jun-

    13

    Feb-

    14

    Oct

    -14

    Jun-

    15

    National Unemployment Rate

    Unemployment Rate (SA) 10-Year Avg.

    (1,000,000)

    (800,000)

    (600,000)

    (400,000)

    (200,000)

    0

    200,000

    400,000

    600,000

    Jul-0

    5

    Nov

    -05

    Mar

    -06

    Jul-0

    6

    Nov

    -06

    Mar

    -07

    Jul-0

    7

    Nov

    -07

    Mar

    -08

    Jul-0

    8

    Nov

    -08

    Mar

    -09

    Jul-0

    9

    Nov

    -09

    Mar

    -10

    Jul-1

    0

    Nov

    -10

    Mar

    -11

    Jul-1

    1

    Nov

    -11

    Mar

    -12

    Jul-1

    2

    Nov

    -12

    Mar

    -13

    Jul-1

    3

    Nov

    -13

    Mar

    -14

    Jul-1

    4

    Nov

    -14

    Mar

    -15

    National Nonfarm Jobs Added (July 2005 - June 2015)

  • New York City

    4,203,500: Total number of Nonfarm jobs as of May 2015 (SA) 3,551: 20-Year (1995-2015) average number of jobs added monthly (SA) 4,950: 10-Year (2005-2015) average number of jobs added montly (SA) 17,300: Number of jobs gained in June 2015 (SA) 27,200: Number of jobs gained in 2Q 2015 (SA) 6.1%: June 2015 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 7.5%: 20-Year (2005-2015) Unemployment Rate Average 7.5%: 10-Year (2005-2015) Unemployment Rate Average

    New York Department of Labor

    10 and 20 year averages remained the same at 7.5 since last quarter. May added 15,700 jobs and June added 17,300, but the quarted netted 27,200 jobs due to April's lost of 5,800 jobs. Jobs gain overall have been averaging higher than the 10 and 20 year averages since November 2014.

    7.5%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    Jul-0

    5

    Feb-

    06

    Sep-

    06

    Apr-

    07

    Nov

    -07

    Jun-

    08

    Jan-

    09

    Aug-

    09

    Mar

    -10

    Oct

    -10

    May

    -11

    Dec-

    11

    Jul-1

    2

    Feb-

    13

    Sep-

    13

    Apr-

    14

    Nov

    -14

    Jun-

    15

    New York City Unemployment Rate

    Unemployment Rate (SA) 10 Year Average

    (40,000)

    (30,000)

    (20,000)

    (10,000)

    -

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14

    New York City Nonfarm Jobs Added

  • Unemployment Rate ComparisonSeasonally Adjusted

    June 2015 Unemployment Rate 10-Year Unemployment Rate AverageUnited States 5.3% 7.0%New York City 6.1% 7.5%

    Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

    United States 10-year unemployment rate average increased by 0.2% since last quarter, bringing it within 0.5% of NYC's 10-year average. The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 5.3%, as low as it has been since 2008. Similarly NYC's unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points since March 2015 (6.6%).

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    Jul-0

    5O

    ct-0

    5Ja

    n-06

    Apr-

    06Ju

    l-06

    Oct

    -06

    Jan-

    07Ap

    r-07

    Jul-0

    7O

    ct-0

    7Ja

    n-08

    Apr-

    08Ju

    l-08

    Oct

    -08

    Jan-

    09Ap

    r-09

    Jul-0

    9O

    ct-0

    9Ja

    n-10

    Apr-

    10Ju

    l-10

    Oct

    -10

    Jan-

    11Ap

    r-11

    Jul-1

    1O

    ct-1

    1Ja

    n-12

    Apr-

    12Ju

    l-12

    Oct

    -12

    Jan-

    13Ap

    r-13

    Jul-1

    3O

    ct-1

    3Ja

    n-14

    Apr-

    14Ju

    l-14

    Oct

    -14

    Jan-

    15Ap

    r-15

    United States vs. New York City Unemployment Rate

    U.S. N.Y.C. 10-Year U.S. Avg. 10-Year N.Y.C. Avg.

  • Unemployment and Jobs Added Overview

    Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Unemployment Peak:

    2009June 2015

    20-YearAverage

    10-YearAverage

    United States 5.0% 9.5% 10.0% 5.3% 6.0% 7.0%New York State 4.9% 8.6% 8.9% 5.3% 6.2% 6.8%New York City 5.2% 9.6% 10.2% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5%

    Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Lowest Job Numbers

    2010June 2015

    20-YearAverage

    10-YearAverage

    United States 138,350,000 130,944,000 129,649,000 141,840,000 131,543,000 135,168,000New York State 8,774,000 8,522,600 8,496,900 9,241,000 8,543,800 8,769,700New York City 3,776,500 3,683,600 3,678,400 4,203,500 3,684,300 3,822,700

    Start of 2007 Recession: December 2007

    End of Recession: June 2009

    Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

    UnemploymentTime Period

    Non-FarmJobs

    Time Period

    Employment increased across the United States, New York and New York City. Since 1Q2015, employment in the United States increased by 0.68% ending June 2015. Meanwhile nonfarm jobs continue to outpace their 20 and 10 year averages. Currently 7.7% above its 20-Year average in the United States. NYC's unemployment remains the highest at 6.1%. The city's unemployment rate continues to remain high but dropped by 7.6% since March. Although unemployment continues to drop nationally, there is growing concern among NYC and its employable youth (ages 16 to 24). According to estimates by NYC's Community Service Society, there are 186,000 unemployed youths sidelined and out of work. That's enough to fill four Yankee Stadiums. To be more precise, majority of the youth are comprised of African-Americans. The Brookings Institute's research concluded that a six-month lapse of unemployment reduces wages by 8% the following year and reduces future earnings by $22,000 over the next decade.

  • May 2015 New York City Industry Composition of Nonfarm JobsNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.

    New York Department of Labor

    The Service Producing sector which includes retail and wholesale grew by 0.8 percentage points in 20 years. Leisure and the Hospitality sector grew by 55.5% in the same time period, correlating to NYC's tourism spending growing by 232% (1995-2013) to $38.8 billion. Financial Activities sector lost a quarter of its force in 20 years. Flipping the coin and growing by a quarter is the Education & Health sector. The TAMI-driven Professional & Business Services sector grew by a fifth and is predicted to continue growth as NYC becomes a hotbed for tech and business related services. Despite the growth of the Federal government, the municipality's workforce strunk by almost 24% in 20 years, despite the expansion of the biggest police force in the nation.

    Goods Producing,

    2.7%

    Service Producing, 52.8%

    Information, 2.5%

    Financial Activities, 6.0%

    Professional & Business

    Services, 9.1%

    Education & Health Services, 11.6%

    Leisure & Hospitality, 5.6%

    Other Services, 2.5%

    Government, 7.3%

    May 2015

    Goods Producing,

    3.5%

    Service Producing,

    52.5%

    Information, 2.5%

    Financial Activities,

    6.9%

    Professional & Business

    Services, 8.6%

    Education & Health

    Services, 10.6%

    Leisure & Hospitality,

    4.4%

    Other Services, 2.4%

    Government, 8.7%

    May 2005

    Goods Producing,

    5.1%

    Service Producing,

    52.0%

    Information, 2.6%

    Financial Activities, 8.0%

    Professional & Business

    Services, 7.6%

    Education & Health

    Services, 9.4%

    Leisure & Hospitality,

    3.6%

    Other Services, 2.1%

    Government, 9.6%

    May 1995

  • May 2015 New York City Industry SnapshotNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.Industry Sectors are sorted by May 2015. June 2015 breakdown by sector is preliminary.

    IndustryMay2015

    April2015

    May2014

    NetMonth

    PercentMonth

    NetYear

    PercentYear

    Total Nonfarm 4,203,400 4,175,100 4,105,500 28,300 0.7% 97,900 2.4%Total Private 3,653,500 3,625,600 3,558,900 27,900 0.8% 94,600 2.7%Service Providing 3,997,600 3,972,300 3,902,100 25,300 0.6% 95,500 2.4%Education & Health Services 882,300 878,200 855,200 4,100 0.5% 27,100 3.2%Professional & Business Services 686,500 685,100 664,500 1,400 0.2% 22,000 3.3%Government 549,900 549,500 546,600 400 0.1% 3,300 0.6%Financial Activities 452,400 453,300 446,200 (900) -0.2% 6,200 1.4%Leisure & Hospitality 426,900 415,100 414,300 11,800 2.8% 12,600 3.0%Goods Producing 205,800 202,800 203,400 3,000 1.5% 2,400 1.2%Other Services 187,500 184,000 180,400 3,500 1.9% 7,100 3.9%Information 186,400 186,700 182