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PRESENTATION 2ND WORLD IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE PRIZE

WINNER

Prof. em. Bart Schultz

Prof. em. Land and Water Development, UNESCO-IHE Former Top Advisor Rijkswaterstaat

President honoraire International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)

water management for food security impacts of man induced changes in land use and

climate change on living and working in coastal and deltaic areas

In light of a rapidly changing and urbanising world

TWO CRUCIAL TOPICS

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POPULATION ANDPOPULATION GROWTH

POPULATION AND GROWTH

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 2035 2055 2075 2095

Pop

ula

tion

in b

illi

on

Very high HDI Medium and high HDI Low HDI

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URBAN

RURAL

0

2

4

6

8

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Bill

ion

0

2

4

6

8

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Bill

ion

Very high HDI High and medium HDI

WATER MANAGEMENT FOR FOOD SECURITY IN A RAPIDLY

CHANGING AND URBANISING WORLD

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CEREAL SUPPLY AND DEMANDGLOBAL CEREAL STOCK

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Production (million tonnes)Utilization (million tonnes)Stock to use ratio （％）

Source: USDA

CEREAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Very high HDI Medium + high HDI Low HDI

Pr. in million ton Pr. in kg/inhabitantNTS in million ton NTS in kg/inhabitant

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EXPECTATION ON FOOD PRODUCTION duplication in food production in 25 – 30 years 80 - 90% from existing cultivated area higher yield per ha, double or triple cropping installation of irrigation and/or drainage systems in

areas without a system modernization of existing irrigation and drainage

systems installation of drainage in irrigated areas installation of irrigation in rainfed areas with

drainage 10 - 20% from land reclamation

Istanbul 18 March H.Tardieu

INCREASE IN FARM SIZEFood affordable for urban people

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WORLD MARKET PRICESOVER THE LAST 30 YEARS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pri

ce in

US

$/to

n

Wheat Maize Rice

WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

no system 1,100 million ha irrigation only 230 million ha drainage only 135 million ha irrigation and drainage 70 million ha

Type of %

country No system Irrigation Drainage

Very High HDIHigh + Medium HDILow HDI

676987

112312

2282

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ACTORS IN AGRICULTURALWATER MANAGEMENT

RESPONSIBLE CONTRIBUTING

Consultants Contractors, manufacturers Government Policy, legislation, National waters Universities, schools Agencies Main and distri- Research institutes butary systems Banks, donors Farmers Field systems NGO’s, Int. org. Farmers associations

SOME REMARKABLE POINTS

global food production enough to feed the World challenge: duplication in 25 – 30 years improved and expanded water management is needed

to cope with the challenges, especially in the countrieswith a high, medium and low HDI responsible for water management: governments,

irrigation/drainage agencies, farmers

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IMPACTS OF MAN INDUCED CHANGES IN LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVING AND WORKING IN COASTAL

AND DELTAIC AREAS

worlds’ population is increasingly living and workingin coastal and deltaic areas. No indications that thistendency will change

improvement in agriculture, increase in value of crops, buildings, water management facilities, infrastructure

80 – 90% of urbanisation takes place in flood prone areas. Increase in value of property, buildings and infrastructure. Further increase will take place

CHARACTERISTIC DEVELOPMENTS

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Cities with > 5 million residents

1950

2015

SUBSIDENCEIN COASTAL AND DELTAIC AREAS

Location Subsidence in

cm/year

Semarang, Surabaya

Jakarta

Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City,

San Francisco Bay

Ganges Brahmaputra Delta,

Manilla, New Orleans, Shanghai

Venetia

6 - 20

0.5 - 17

4 – 5

2 – 4

0.1 – 0.4

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SUBSIDENCE AND SEA LEVEL RISE

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2015 2035 2055 2075 2095 2115

Val

ue

in m

Sea level rise Subsidence 50 mm/year

Subsidence 100 mm/year Subsidence 150 mm/year

Drainage by gravity

needs to be replaced by drainage by pumping

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STANDARDS FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

City/country Chance per year

Dhaka, BangladeshUnited States and United Kingdom(including New Orleans after Katrina)India: urban and industry

rural areaChina: major cities

citiesrural area

Brits Columbia in CanadaCoast of the Netherlands

1/501/100

1/1001/251/2001/1001/201/200

1/10,000

DEATH AND DISPLACED PERSONS

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Dea

th

0

20

40

60

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Dis

pla

ced

in

mill

ion

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0

50

100

150

200

250

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Dam

age

in b

illi

on U

S$

DAMAGE IN BILLION US$

FUTURE OUTLOOK

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climate change: rise of the mean sea level change in river regimes and increase in peak

discharges of rivers increase in annual rainfall and in peak rainfall

Impact 10 – 45% per century impact of human activities: increase in value of public and private property increase in population increase in value of crops

Impact 100 – 1,000% per century

CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES

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CONCLUDING REMARKS – IMan induced changes in land use – urbanisation and

land subsidence – are much faster and have much more impact than the impacts of climate change

Measures in the field of water management and flood protection are generally absolutely insufficient

As long as population growth, increase in standards of living, urbanisation and industrialisation in coastal and

deltaic areas goes on, increasingly flood management and flood protection provisions will be required

Flood management and flood protection measures are generally taken after a flooding disaster and not before

Many casualties and substantial damage would have been prevented when the same measures would have been

taken before the disaster, but it looks like our societies are not able to take such decisions in time

CONCLUDING REMARKS - II

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We are concerned about the calamities that hit us, but many of these calamities are only such disastrous while we started to live on volcanos, at active faults, along subsiding

coasts and the flooding rivers

Salomon Kroonenberg, 2006

Thank you for your attention