ON INTELLIGENCE

Overview 2.6

http://tinyurl.com/2013-Steele

Why Is Intelligence So Feeble?Money, Sex, & Spotlight Trump Secrets

Greg Treverton (1986)

What Is Intelligence?And What Is Intelligence Not?

Intelligence Is:• Actionable Answers• Decision-Support• Evidence-Based• Holistic ProcessIntelligence Is Not:• Applied Knowledge• Beliefs in Isolation• Consciousness• Covert Action• Espionage• Secret Information• Wisdom

KnowerIntelligence

What Form Might Intelligence Be?

What Threats Should We Consider?01 Poverty 02 Infectious Disease 03 Environmental Degradation 04 Inter-State Conflict 05 Civil War 06 Genocide 07 Other Atrocities 08 Proliferation 09 Terrorism

10 Transnational Crime

High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change (including LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft), A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility (United Nations, December 2004)

What Strategies & Policies Apply?01 Agriculture 02 Diplomacy 03 Economy 04 Education 05 Energy 06 Family 07 Health 08 Immigration 09 Justice

10 Security 11 Society 12 Water

Mandate for

Change

Various Presidential Transition Teams

Preliminary Holistic Analytic Model

Core Gaps in Holistic AnalysisEssential to Future-Proofing

What US IC Focuses On.. Nigeria

Whole Systems Analytics

Who Owns the Future?Demography Rules [Minister-Mentor Lee Kuan Yew]

Projected for 2050

India 1.7BChina 1.3BUSA 0.4BNigeria 0.4BIndonesia 0.3BPakistan 0.3BBrazil 0.22BBangladesh 0.19BPhilippines 0.15BCongo DR 0.15BEthiopia 0.15BMexico 0.14BTanzania 0.14BRussia 0.13BEgypt 0.12BJapan 0.11BViet-Nam 0.10BKenya 0.96BUganda 0.94BTurkey 0.91B

Utility of Open SourcesEconomic and social threats, including 95%• Poverty 99%• Infectious Disease 95%• Environmental Degradation 90%

Interstate conflict 75%

Internal conflict, including 90%• Civil War 85%• Genocide 95%• Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95%

Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological WMD 75%

Terrorism 80%

Transnational organized crime 80%2008 Open Source Intelligence [in Loch Johnson (ed) Strategic Intelligence Vol 2. Chapter 6]

Evolutionary Path for Intelligence

Understood from 1988 Less Cyber, Cyber Added 1992.BOTH US IC Leaders and DoD Leaders (Cheney) Refused to Acknowledge

Illuminate True Costs

Eradicate Corruption

Educate All Publics

Harmonize Field Effects

REALITY

REALITY

REALITYREAL

ITY

Fundamentals of Intelligence

1. Whole of Government Decision-Support

2. Holistic Analytics with True Cost Economics

3. Counterintelligence on Domestic Enemies

4. Integrated Scalable IT5. Open Requirements

Showing Satisfaction & Connecting Clients

6. Spend with Integrity

25 Years – US$1.2 TrillionStill Do Not Have This!

STRATEGIC

TECHNICAL

Long Term (100 Years)

Imminent

1 Year Out

90 Days Out

72 Hours Out

12 Years Out

50 Years Out

25 Years Out

Whole of Government Institutions*

Cross-Cutting Threats & Policies

OPERATIONAL

TACTICAL* In Order of Secession to Presidency** Cabinet Rank Not In Succession

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PresidentVice PresidentStateTreasuryD

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LaborH

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Housing &

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TransportationEnergyEducationVeterans AffairsH

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Budget**U

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Council of Economic Advisors**

Small Business Adm

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Full-Spectrum Intelligence

Context & Process for Intelligence

Government

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Civil Societies

Media

Academia

Non-Profit

InformationCommons

Secret Internal

Secret Shared

Sensitive Shared

Open (Public)

GreenYellowOrangeRed

Multinational - Strategic

Technology Architecture

Local to Global Range of Needs Table

The truth at any cost lowers all other costs.

BE the Force!