Steele on IntelligenceWhat can we know, how?

Reflections on the near future.

Google versus the CIA—Five Year Outlook

Robert David Steele VivasHackers in Santa Cruz

13 November 2005

A copy of these slides are at www.oss.netModern IO Portal Page Dated Today (Last Link)

Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd

OSINT

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

Potential Earnings IAd Hoc Information Purchase Curve for Current

Western Base of Individual Users Only

5K3K2K1K5C3C2C1C502510

This is an ugly best guess at what the Google population would spend, per year, if they could do one click information purchases from multiple sources--you do the math….

Federal Marketplace

US Spends Today: $5000M

Needs to Spend: $1.5B

Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount.

TOTAL: $4B/Year

State & Local Marketplace

50 States Spend Today: $0

Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for 50 Community Intelligence Centers/networks

Others should follow along.

TOTAL: $3B/Year

Corporate Marketplace

Multinationals Today: $25B

• Mostly “BI” or IT internal DM

• Mediocre sense-making or external à la carte small stuff

Small Business Today: $1B

Should Increase by 10X

TOTAL: $250B/Year

Associational Marketplace

UN, Red Cross, others: $100M

Need to Spend: $1B+

Need to GIVE Google: Raw information

Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.

Plan for the Briefing1000 Sunday Where GIS Was

• 4 minutes on State of the World and the US• 4 minutes of where Google appears to be• 4 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)• 4 minutes on sources in context• 4 minutes on emerging technical standards• 4 minutes of ethics and morality• 4 minutes on the White Paper for OSIS-X• 4 minute wrap on saving Google from itself

World War III Players

Bacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Private Sector

Citizens

Mother EarthWater-Air-Green

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions

Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture

Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits

Has actually gotten better, the UN, although corrupt, is working!

Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

What I Told Congress & US1:You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But

Reality is Interested in You

Of course no one listened. We have to shake the people awake and teach them that information is power.

Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing

indigenous wealth.

Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option.

Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent

The Google Legacy

• Supercomputer• 1/3rd rack cost, optimized

LINUX for speed—10X performance @ half price

• Plug in racks/centers• Inherent back-up• Geospatially aware• Open Office soon?• Going to hand-held as

global access point

State of the Art

• Will blow through these• It’s not about separate sources anymore• It’s not about human reading anymore• It’s about integrating everything:

– Collecting relevant offline information– Machine-aided collation & exploitation– Connecting experts and their students– Presenting the information is a compelling way

OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your area of interest

FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention

FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details

GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools

READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied

Silobreaker Advances on Google

• This costs $400 a year at full price.• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.• Test it free for seven days by following the

link at www.oss.net.• This has been my secret weapon for years,

now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challenges—creating a World Brain.

Sources

• All information, all languages, all the time

• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy

• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”

• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic

• Must follow television, radio, audio, street

• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC

• Cannot be made sense of by single individual

Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding

50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

Seven Views of RealityNot sharing, not listening, costs us.

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Technologies• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data

smart—the context is in the content• IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprise

—when we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain

• Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value

• Gaming, not reports, will rule

Five Technical Trends• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including

streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence

• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead

• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level

• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original

• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.

Ethics & Morality

• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq

• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not

just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church)

• Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor

TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible

Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity

• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers

• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35

• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures

• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.

Reality Won’t Go Away

• End of cheap oil cascades across everything• End of free water is actually a bigger threat• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease

could rebalance populations• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the

failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues

• Collective popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.

Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene

• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention

– More Peacekeeping

– More Education

– More Long-Term Aid

– Less Corruption

– Less Censorship

We have a sacred duty.

Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible

TECHNICAL HUMAN

III - External InformationEXTERNAL

INTERNAL

OrganizationalMemory System

DataConversion

DataVisualization

HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval

TripReports

Churning(Rotationals)

LocalKnowledge

Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”

Internal Reporting

Vendor Reporting

Government Monitoring

Customer Monitoring

Environmental Monitoring

Technology Monitoring

CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)

PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)

Patents, Etc.

Trade Secrets

Meta-Data

Knowledge Capital™

Rolodexes/E-Mail

Personal Brand

Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing

Project/GroupManagement

Training

BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized

E-Commerce

Automated Analysis

Cell #

IV - Organizational Intelligence

I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work

Open Sources Global Sources

Multiple Global Language Sources

Global Language and Area Analysis

The Open Loop / Unclassified System:

(Open access to web, on-line, broadcast, published, posted sources internal VPNs; From all sources, from all points of view, and all authors; Expressed in real time, in geo spatial terms, and local context.)

(Foreign language sources captured and processed; and indexed and available directly in the vernacular language and dialect; With accurate details and context; and access to sources and authors)

(Open market access to global domain expertise, and language/area expertise To review, integrate, synthesize, report From accurate real time details and context;With direct access to sources/authors;From the “street corner not the cubicle”)

(Completely unconstrained random sources with random training and experience; with native language and area experience; and orthogonal to the common “correct” DoD/ Intel analysis and reporting)

We need to live in the Real World of Open Sources and Open Analysis

Only Total Access to All

Data and Analysis from All Sources will Validate

Specific Data

Management HubIR&D Funding

DB2/OmniFindClient Standard

Content-Based RoutingPDA & Disk Level Security +

Google EnterpriseGoogleplex LeasedSee Sub-State Slices

Overnight Hard-Copy from EverywhereMigrate Toward Localized Digitization

“Inside the Book” and Ranking Applied to Foreign

Sehda

OSINT Pioneer Decision-Support Pioneer Global Geospatial Pioneer

+

OSINT-DS Toolkit & SourcesAnonymous Access

Data Mining PioneersMachine Translation Pioneer

Hand-Held C4I Terminals

Networking Pioneer Chief Scientist & Architect Installed Base Anonymizer

S-Minds

Influentials by Name

+ +

Cleared Multi-Lingual Operational Support in the Field

$1B/Yr 3

$111B/Yr 10

Pay with information

Pay with cash & information

DoD

$250M/Yr 1

$500M/Yr 2

$1B/Yr 3

$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC

for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a

coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling

sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.

1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2

10 PB/Yr 3

Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning

with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.

USG

10X DoD

with 1-3 year

lag time.

U.S. Based Corporations

OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.

Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.

Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.

Education Everywhere All Levels

Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.

Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.

United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF

Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.

Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups

It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.

The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED

OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)

GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)

Intelink-X

USA Earns Nobels Across S&T

Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X

USA DGI, GIC, GSC

World Intelligence Network

General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.

Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad

Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping

DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council

OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM

# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global

You Are Here...

12

3

Far Future

Near Future

Present

Historical Memory

Intelligence and

Research

Policy Planning Staff SP

Semantic Architecture Network

NSA

State Department Networks IC Networks

CIA

DIA

IC

Example 4. Global ST Community: Linking Science / Technology / Bio-Medical Expertise

Analysis & Policy

Intel & Analysis

EA

SA

NEA

AF

WHA

EUR

RegionalBureaus

IO

Legislative Affairs

Science Affairs

OES

STAS

Commercial Science

Community

USG Science

Community

NIH

Academic Science

Community

NSF

DoD

Other Federal & State

Agencies

UniversityResearch

CorporateResearch

TraditionalPublished Journals

On-LinePublished Journals

ContentDistributors

ProfessionalSocieties

NP

VCUS NGOFunded

Research

VPN & Internet Sources

DoE

USDA

USG VPN

White House Liaison

Global NGOFunded

Research

IndividualsIndividuals

What is our current scientific/technical TOPIC knowledge; and WHO are the EXPERTS?

OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM

Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets

You Are Here...

12

3

Gaming Future ROIs

Foreign Viewpoints

Reality

Public Memory

Secrecy rules

Elites rules

Act on 2% of the info.

People complacent

Short-term view

Unilateral militarism

Immoral capitalism

Big stick works BUT

Long-term cost not visible to public

Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

Finished Intelligence and Reporting

A

B

C

SECRET BIG DATA

• NSA-NGA

• SAIC

• HARRIS

• NG-MS

NOT SECRET BIG DATA

• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…

• NASA , public geospatial

• Factiva

• LEXIS-NEXIS

SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• Intelink

• ARDA

• ITIC

• JHU/APL

NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• CISCO

• Google/Libraries

• Amazon Inside the Book

• Napster Plus

Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)

SIPRNET

Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down

Point of Entry Raw Produces Actionable Intelligence

Processed Raw

OPINTEL

Finished Intelligence

Policy Package

Public Perception

HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER

HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER

Dots need to be connecting at every level,Including immediately upon ingestion.

Today, one third of the dots connect here.(Collect 2/3rd, spill half—some say 80%)

Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

NEW: Intelligent Network Enables Applications At All Points

OLD:

Paradigm Shift in Information

• Dots don’t know they are secret until some human decides this.

• Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation.

• Dots gain value from history and context.

• Dots gain value from speed of delivery.

• Dots in a foreign language are smarter.

Information for All Four Levels

Strategic Planning

Operational Coordination

Tactical Employment

Acquisition Design

• History

• Context

• Current Awareness

• Key Personalities/Motivators

• Imagery & Image Maps

• Translation Support

• Strategic Generalizations

• Critical Technologies

This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all-source intelligence!

Inter-Agency Collaboration

SOJICC

J-2 J-3

J-1MP

J-5CA

J-4Eng

J-6IT

CGR2

INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER

80% Unclassified Information

NGO CLUSTER

LEA CLUSTER

SERVICE CLUSTER

CIVIL CLUSTER

COALITION CLUSTER

?

?

?

?

?

?

? ?

OPG VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance Learning

Virtual Library

Shared Calendar

Virtual Budget

Shared 24/7 Plot

Shared Rolodex

Teams Crossing All Boundaries

Google-India & World Brain

• Four OPENS– Open source software

– Open source information

– Open spectrum

– Open Hypertext Document System

• We are close to both victory & salvation.

• Centers in each region

• Unite the seven tribes– Transnationally

– Locally

• Bottom-up people power

• He who enters data rules, not he who hides or manipulates data

• Openness is the antidote to secrecy & corruption.

Do No Evil & Counter Evil

• Taking money from US IC is very bad idea.• Poor people are the wild cards.• Foreign poor people are the best wild cards.• Beltway bandits are evil and the alternative to a smart,

moral, globally-responsible Google.• Need to create global multinational intelligence sharing

network rather than augmenting national secret networks.• It’s time for Google to grow up, scale up, and rule in a

United Nations/friend to all manner, NOT NOT NOT as a secret ally of the U.S. Government. Cut the IC ties NOW.

Humble Suggestions for Google

• Buy Silobreaker, Vivisimo, & the Institute of Scientific Information

• Partner with Amazon, FedEx-Kinkos• Explode World Bank and UN Relationships• Integrate CISCO AON and IPCIPS• Replicate or cooperate with Skype• Fund global man-machine foreign language

translation and advanced analytics network• BE the Global Intelligence Network/World Brain

Spread the Word

Robert David Steele VivasCEO, OSS.Net, Inc.Coach, Global Intelligence

Partnership (20 companies & rising)

Bear@oss.net703.242.1700Will speak for sushi.Use MoveOn.Org OSINT

topic to organize everywhere in the world