2050 Global Energy Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th...

2050 Global Energy

Institute of Energy StrategyGeneral Director

Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev

5th International Energy WeekMoscow, 25th October 2010

The Great Depression

1930th

IndustrializationState regulation

1950-1960th

Crisis of virtual economy

2008-2010th

Energy crisis of 1970thBattle for resources after the Cold war

Crisis of the industrial phase 2050th

LiberalizationPostindustrial development1980-2000th

Industrial & ecological development

State regulation 2020-3030th

Global cycles & dynamics

1

Global energy consumption dynamics

Crisis of the 2050th


Crisis of the 193th


Glo

bal

pri

mar

y en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n,

btc

e

Electricity &

petrol

Gas & nuclear

Renewables New energy sources

Coal2

Globakl energy scenarios 2050

Divergence 2030th

Innovative scenario

Stagnation scenario

Reference scenario

3

Glo

bal

pri

mar

y en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n,

btc

e



Energy efficiency & global energy scenarios

Global GDP, trln 2009 USD, PPP

Global energy consumption, btoe

4

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

- Energy-intensive

- Energy savings

- Energy efficiency

Energy sector shift to the developing countries

CO2 emission, billion tonnes

5

Global energy consumption, btoe

Fact OECDReference scenario, OECDStagnation scenario, OECDInnovative scenario, OECD

Fact non-OECDReference scenario, non-OECDStagnation scenario, non-OECDInnovative scenario, non-OECD

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2050,инерционный

сценарий

2050,стагнационный

сценарий

2050,инновационный

сценарий

Автомобильный транспорт Другие виды транспортаКотельно-печное топливо НефтехимияПрочие сектора

Key trends in oil industry

Radical car fleet changes are possible

Gybrids & electric vehicles – up to 80% of car fleet in 2050

Oil consumption, mln tonnes

6

Innovative scenario

Stagnation scenario

Reference scenario

Motor vehicleElectricity & heatingOthers

Other transportChemicals

Oil prices: wave dynamics by neural modeling

Downwards trend

From commodity market to service & technology market

Volatility reduction

The end of oil business

Долл. 2009 г. за баррель

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Фактические цены Brent Инерционный сценарий

Стагнационный сценарий Инновационный сценарий

Fact

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000


сценарий


сценарий


сценарий

ЕС США ОЭСР-другие Россия

Китай Индия Другие РС

Key trends in gas industry

Inevitable trends:

Shift to the developing countries

The share of unconventional gas rises

The share of LNG rises

8

Gas consumption, bcm

Innovative scenario

Stagnation scenario

Reference scenario

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD Russia

Other non-OECD

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Инерционный сценарий

Стагнационный сценарий

Инновационный сценарий

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Инерционный сценарий

Стагнационный сценарий

Инновационный сценарий

Globalization VS regionalization

International trade in oil consumption, %

International trade in gas consumption, %

9

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

Reference scenario

Stagnation scenario

Innovative scenario

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


сценарий


сценарий


сценарий


Китай Индия Другие РС

Key trends in electricity sectorFaster growth

Fuel competition

Renewables and new energy sources

Large potential market - electric vehicles

Innovation scenario - "Electric World"

Electricity consumption, bln mWh

10

EU

China

US

India

Other OECD Russia

Other non-OECD

Innovative scenario

Stagnation scenario

Reference scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

ФактИнерционный сценарийСтагнационный сценарийИнновационный сценарий

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2050, инерционный

сценарий

2050, стагнационный

сценарий

2050, инновационный

сценарий

%


Китай Индия Другие РС Доля ВИЭ, %

Key trends in renewables: maximum uncertainty and growth

Renewables capacity additions, GW

11

Innovative scenario

Stagnation scenario

Reference scenario

2050

FactReference scenarioStagnation scenarioInnovative scenario

Renewable electricity consumption

EU

China

US

India

Russia

Other non-OECD

Other OECD

Renewables, %

bln mWh

Reference scenario - carbon-intensiveGeopolitics + consumption growth + technological inertia

100

125

150

175

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

100

300

500

700

900

Нефть Газ

Уголь Атомная энергия

НВИЭ (правая шкала)

Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100%

Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э.

12

0

4

8

12

16

20

2010 2030 2050

Нефть ГазУголь Атомная энергия

Биомасса ГидроНВИЭ

Oil

Coal

Renewables (right axis)

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

100

300

500

700

900

Нефть Газ



Stagnation scenario - renewableEnergy savings + climate policy+ renewables


14

0

4

8

12

16

20

2010 2030 2050




Oil

Coal


Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

Нефть Газ



Innovative scenario –renewables & nuclearEnergy efficiency + smart energy sector+ market of technologies


13

0

4

8

12

16

20

2010 2030 2050




Oil

Coal


Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Thank you for your attention!

Institute of Energy strategywww.emergystrategy.ru

Tel. (495) 698-52-34Е-mail: [email protected]

2050 Global Energy Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th...

Documents

Transcript of 2050 Global Energy Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th...