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Page 1: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020)

East vector

Vitaly Bushuev

- General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy

Minpromenergy of Russia

Moscow

May 2005

Page 2: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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В ВВП доля ТЭК 25,4%, в том числе:

14,4

6,8

3,50,7

В экспорте доля ТЭК 56,3%, в том числе:

39,5

15,10,31,4

Поступления налоговых и таможенных платежей в консолидированный бюджет. Доля ТЭК 32,8%, в том числе:

20

8,6

3,60,6

Нефтяная

Газовая

Э/энергетическая

Угольная

Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003, (%)

In GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %, including: In export a share of FEC 56,3 %,

including:

Receipts of tax and customs payments in the consolidated budget. A share of FEC of 32,8 %, including:

Petroleum

Gas

Electropower

Coal

Page 3: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Energy streams of Russia ( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.)

Natural fuel

Extraction and manufacture

1513,1

Export

Internal consumption

Resources - all

Coal 162.8

Gas 684.1

Petroleum 539,6

Hydroelectricity 55,5

Nuclear Energy 44,1

Other 27,0

Coal 13,0

Petroleum 8,9

Gas 7,8

Import

Coal 33,9

Petroleum 269,3

Gas 213,3

Autogasoline, diesel fuel, fuel black oil 82,0

Other mineral oil 24,9

electric power 4,4

Coal 143,1

Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7

Gas 473,7

Autogasoline 38,4, diesel fuel 34,8, fuel black oil 39,7electric power 95,3Other 27,0

Thermal power plants & Boiler-houses 236,1

Russia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas).

In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.

Other receipts

Page 4: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a level of 2000

Growth of GDP and consumption of energy at specific power consumption 2000Forecast consumption of energy without change of structure of economy

Forecast consumption of energy

Share making savings of energy an increasing result by 2000, including technological and organizational (ТиО) and structural (С)

Change of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption of energy of GDP by 26-27 % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by 2020. Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.

Year All

Index неделя Dkd Ср. месячн 1_4 1_2 god

D&J30-Dec-85 1550,5

31-Dec-85 1546,7

2-Jan-86 1537,7

3-Jan-86 1549,2 1546,025

6-Jan-86 1547,6

7-Jan-86 1565,7

8-Jan-86 1526,6

9-Jan-86 1518,2

10-Jan-86 1513,5 1534,32 1536,93

13-Jan-86 1520,5

14-Jan-86 1519

15-Jan-86 1527,3

16-Jan-86 1541,6

17-Jan-86 1536,7 1529,02

20-Jan-86 1529,1 1529,03

21-Jan-86 1514,5

22-Jan-86 1502,3

23-Jan-86 1511,2

24-Jan-86 1529,9 1517,4

27-Jan-86 1537,6

28-Jan-86 1556,4

29-Jan-86 1558,9

30-Jan-86 1552,2

31-Jan-86 1571 1555,22 1537,11 1534,85

3-Feb-86 1594,3

4-Feb-86 1593,2

5-Feb-86 1593,1

6-Feb-86 1600,7

7-Feb-86 1613,4 1598,94

10-Feb-86 1626,4 1603,52

11-Feb-86 1622,8

12-Feb-86 1629,9

13-Feb-86 1645,1

14-Feb-86 1664,5 1637,74

18-Feb-86 1678,8

19-Feb-86 1658,3

20-Feb-86 1672,8 1653,17

21-Feb-86 1697,7 1676,9

24-Feb-86 1698,3

25-Feb-86 1692,7

26-Feb-86 1696,9

27-Feb-86 1714

28-Feb-86 1709,1 1702,2 1701,45 1652,74

3-Mar-86 1696,7

4-Mar-86 1686,4

5-Mar-86 1686,7

6-Mar-86 1696,6

7-Mar-86 1699,8 1693,24

10-Mar-86 1703 1694,87

11-Mar-86 1746,1

12-Mar-86 1745,5

13-Mar-86 1753,7

14-Mar-86 1792,7 1748,2

17-Mar-86 1776,9

18-Mar-86 1789,9

19-Mar-86 1788

20-Mar-86 1804,2 1774,63

21-Mar-86 1768,6 1785,52

24-Mar-86 1782,9

25-Mar-86 1778,5

Page 5: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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ES - 2020

Strategic reference points

1. Energy safety

2. Energy efficiency

3. Budgetary efficiency of energy

4. Ecological safety

Page 6: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Energy politics of Russia

1. Using bowels

2. A home market

3. Fuel and energy balance

4. A regional politics

5. An external energy politics

6. An innovational politics

Page 7: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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An external energy politics

1.Maintenance of competitiveness in the traditional markets (Europe)

2. Diversify structures of export( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the

electric power)

3. Diversify commodity markets( growth of a share of export to the countries

ATR:Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %,Gas about 0 % up to 15 %,Development of the market of USA)

Page 8: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum in Russia till 2020 on regions

Programs and should provide conditions of licensing of bowels expanded reproduction of mineral-raw-material base:

Gain of stocks of petroleum in quantity 7,5-10 billion т.

Thus probable stocks and resources of the distributed fund in the basic areas of an oil recovery may provide reproduction of mineral-raw-material base the nearest 10-15 years no more than on 30-40 %.

Other stocks should be added due to investigation and development of new territories and water areas of Russia. Attraction of investments in volume 45-47 billion is necessary

The main areas of a gain of stocks of hydrocarbon fuel material will be West-Siberian, Leno-Tungus and Timano-Pechersk provinces.

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Far East (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian

Far East (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian

Page 9: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Resource base of the gas industry (the reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic m

In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m

Open Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia

Page 10: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Petroleum, mln t

Gas, billion cubic m

Coal, mln t

Nuclear Energy, billion kwh

Hydroelectri-citi, billion kwh

Moderate variantOptimum variant

Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources in Russia

mln t c.f.mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

mln t c.f.

Page 11: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The factors determining prospects of branch

Quality of the prepared raw-material baseLevel of the world prices for petroleumTax policy of the stateAttraction of necessary volumes of investments

Attraction of investments in extraction in volume $130-135 billion is necessary

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Critical variant

The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т

Far East

East-Siberian

European part

West-Siberian

In total on Russia

Page 12: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The forecast of the price for petroleum WTI till 2006

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

$/b

l

The actual prices Model The forecast

за 2000 гф - $30,3;м - $23,3

за 2001 гф - $25,9;м - $31,1

за 2002 гф - $26,1;м - $25,5

за 2003 гф - $31,1;м - $29,2

за 2004 гф - $37,4(1п/г);м - $34,8

за 2005 гф - ;м - $41,0

за 2006 гф - ;м - $32,1

за 1999 гф - $19,3;м - $15,5

за 1998 гф - $14,4;м - $12,8

Page 13: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum

Page 14: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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European part

West-Siberian

East-Siberian

Far East

Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м)

(the forecast)

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of densities of Western Siberia.

Page 15: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Export of energy resources from RussiaDominant exported energy resources during all period petroleum and gas will stay.

Optimum variant

Moderate variant

Gas, billion cubic m

Coal, mln t c.f.

Export of all, mln t c.f.

Electric power, billion kwh

Petroleum & mineral oil, mln t

Page 16: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Circuits oil- and gas mains

Planned routes of pipelinesPossible routes of pipelines

The plan of creation gas mains networks in Northeast Asia

Circuits oil mains in territory of Russia

Circuits gas mains in territory of Russia

Directions of gas streams

Page 17: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East

Oil pipelines working Gas mains working Oil pipelines projected Gas mains projected

Page 18: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal

Consumption of own resourcesNegative Balance of export -Positive import

Freight traffics of coal, mln t c.f.(numerator-2002, denominator-2020)

Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East -West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in 2020 г

Page 19: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and priorities of territorial development of electric

power industry (optimistic variant)

European part

932 billion kwh

European part

SiberianFar East

Siberian and Far East

433 billion kwh

The maximal development of the atomic power station; Modernisation ТЭС on gas; development ГТГУ-ГТУ

ТЭС at a corner and water-power engineering

Hydroelectric power station, ТЭС and gas thermal power stations in cities

Economy of gas in the European part 7-8 billion cubic m per one year

Increase of manufacture on coal ТЭС and the decision of a problem of closed capacities of the Siberian hydroelectric power station

Page 20: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Wind and geothermal energy of RussiaWind energy of Russia

Geothermal energy of Russia

Page 21: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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The forecast of investment needs of a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars)

Petroleum industry The gas industry

The coal industry Electric power industry

The total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in 2001-2010 and from 400 up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex in the general investments of Russia will make 33-35 % in 2001-2005, will decrease up to 31-33 % in 2006-2010 and up to 20-24 % to 2020.

Page 22: Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of Russia Moscow May.

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Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t)

The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the report

billion t equivalent

Optimum variant Moderate variant

Emissions of firm substances

Volume of quotas for Russia for the first budgetary period 2008-2012

The volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to 2010 will make 75-80 % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach this level.