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Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats...
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Transcript of Energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector Vitaly Bushuev - General director Stats...
energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020)
East vector
Vitaly Bushuev
- General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy
Minpromenergy of Russia
Moscow
May 2005
2
В ВВП доля ТЭК 25,4%, в том числе:
14,4
6,8
3,50,7
В экспорте доля ТЭК 56,3%, в том числе:
39,5
15,10,31,4
Поступления налоговых и таможенных платежей в консолидированный бюджет. Доля ТЭК 32,8%, в том числе:
20
8,6
3,60,6
Нефтяная
Газовая
Э/энергетическая
Угольная
Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003, (%)
In GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %, including: In export a share of FEC 56,3 %,
including:
Receipts of tax and customs payments in the consolidated budget. A share of FEC of 32,8 %, including:
Petroleum
Gas
Electropower
Coal
3
Energy streams of Russia ( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.)
Natural fuel
Extraction and manufacture
1513,1
Export
Internal consumption
Resources - all
Coal 162.8
Gas 684.1
Petroleum 539,6
Hydroelectricity 55,5
Nuclear Energy 44,1
Other 27,0
Coal 13,0
Petroleum 8,9
Gas 7,8
Import
Coal 33,9
Petroleum 269,3
Gas 213,3
Autogasoline, diesel fuel, fuel black oil 82,0
Other mineral oil 24,9
electric power 4,4
Coal 143,1
Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7
Gas 473,7
Autogasoline 38,4, diesel fuel 34,8, fuel black oil 39,7electric power 95,3Other 27,0
Thermal power plants & Boiler-houses 236,1
Russia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas).
In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.
Other receipts
4
Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a level of 2000
Growth of GDP and consumption of energy at specific power consumption 2000Forecast consumption of energy without change of structure of economy
Forecast consumption of energy
Share making savings of energy an increasing result by 2000, including technological and organizational (ТиО) and structural (С)
Change of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption of energy of GDP by 26-27 % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by 2020. Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.
Year All
Index неделя Dkd Ср. месячн 1_4 1_2 god
D&J30-Dec-85 1550,5
31-Dec-85 1546,7
2-Jan-86 1537,7
3-Jan-86 1549,2 1546,025
6-Jan-86 1547,6
7-Jan-86 1565,7
8-Jan-86 1526,6
9-Jan-86 1518,2
10-Jan-86 1513,5 1534,32 1536,93
13-Jan-86 1520,5
14-Jan-86 1519
15-Jan-86 1527,3
16-Jan-86 1541,6
17-Jan-86 1536,7 1529,02
20-Jan-86 1529,1 1529,03
21-Jan-86 1514,5
22-Jan-86 1502,3
23-Jan-86 1511,2
24-Jan-86 1529,9 1517,4
27-Jan-86 1537,6
28-Jan-86 1556,4
29-Jan-86 1558,9
30-Jan-86 1552,2
31-Jan-86 1571 1555,22 1537,11 1534,85
3-Feb-86 1594,3
4-Feb-86 1593,2
5-Feb-86 1593,1
6-Feb-86 1600,7
7-Feb-86 1613,4 1598,94
10-Feb-86 1626,4 1603,52
11-Feb-86 1622,8
12-Feb-86 1629,9
13-Feb-86 1645,1
14-Feb-86 1664,5 1637,74
18-Feb-86 1678,8
19-Feb-86 1658,3
20-Feb-86 1672,8 1653,17
21-Feb-86 1697,7 1676,9
24-Feb-86 1698,3
25-Feb-86 1692,7
26-Feb-86 1696,9
27-Feb-86 1714
28-Feb-86 1709,1 1702,2 1701,45 1652,74
3-Mar-86 1696,7
4-Mar-86 1686,4
5-Mar-86 1686,7
6-Mar-86 1696,6
7-Mar-86 1699,8 1693,24
10-Mar-86 1703 1694,87
11-Mar-86 1746,1
12-Mar-86 1745,5
13-Mar-86 1753,7
14-Mar-86 1792,7 1748,2
17-Mar-86 1776,9
18-Mar-86 1789,9
19-Mar-86 1788
20-Mar-86 1804,2 1774,63
21-Mar-86 1768,6 1785,52
24-Mar-86 1782,9
25-Mar-86 1778,5
5
ES - 2020
Strategic reference points
1. Energy safety
2. Energy efficiency
3. Budgetary efficiency of energy
4. Ecological safety
6
Energy politics of Russia
1. Using bowels
2. A home market
3. Fuel and energy balance
4. A regional politics
5. An external energy politics
6. An innovational politics
7
An external energy politics
1.Maintenance of competitiveness in the traditional markets (Europe)
2. Diversify structures of export( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the
electric power)
3. Diversify commodity markets( growth of a share of export to the countries
ATR:Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %,Gas about 0 % up to 15 %,Development of the market of USA)
8
The forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum in Russia till 2020 on regions
Programs and should provide conditions of licensing of bowels expanded reproduction of mineral-raw-material base:
Gain of stocks of petroleum in quantity 7,5-10 billion т.
Thus probable stocks and resources of the distributed fund in the basic areas of an oil recovery may provide reproduction of mineral-raw-material base the nearest 10-15 years no more than on 30-40 %.
Other stocks should be added due to investigation and development of new territories and water areas of Russia. Attraction of investments in volume 45-47 billion is necessary
The main areas of a gain of stocks of hydrocarbon fuel material will be West-Siberian, Leno-Tungus and Timano-Pechersk provinces.
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Far East (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian
Far East (Sakhalin)East-Siberian European partWest-Siberian
9
Resource base of the gas industry (the reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic m
In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m
Open Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia
10
Petroleum, mln t
Gas, billion cubic m
Coal, mln t
Nuclear Energy, billion kwh
Hydroelectri-citi, billion kwh
Moderate variantOptimum variant
Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources in Russia
mln t c.f.mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
11
The factors determining prospects of branch
Quality of the prepared raw-material baseLevel of the world prices for petroleumTax policy of the stateAttraction of necessary volumes of investments
Attraction of investments in extraction in volume $130-135 billion is necessary
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Critical variant
The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т
Far East
East-Siberian
European part
West-Siberian
In total on Russia
12
The forecast of the price for petroleum WTI till 2006
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
$/b
l
The actual prices Model The forecast
за 2000 гф - $30,3;м - $23,3
за 2001 гф - $25,9;м - $31,1
за 2002 гф - $26,1;м - $25,5
за 2003 гф - $31,1;м - $29,2
за 2004 гф - $37,4(1п/г);м - $34,8
за 2005 гф - ;м - $41,0
за 2006 гф - ;м - $32,1
за 1999 гф - $19,3;м - $15,5
за 1998 гф - $14,4;м - $12,8
13
The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum
14
European part
West-Siberian
East-Siberian
Far East
Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м)
(the forecast)
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of densities of Western Siberia.
15
Export of energy resources from RussiaDominant exported energy resources during all period petroleum and gas will stay.
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Gas, billion cubic m
Coal, mln t c.f.
Export of all, mln t c.f.
Electric power, billion kwh
Petroleum & mineral oil, mln t
16
Circuits oil- and gas mains
Planned routes of pipelinesPossible routes of pipelines
The plan of creation gas mains networks in Northeast Asia
Circuits oil mains in territory of Russia
Circuits gas mains in territory of Russia
Directions of gas streams
17
Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East
Oil pipelines working Gas mains working Oil pipelines projected Gas mains projected
18
The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal
Consumption of own resourcesNegative Balance of export -Positive import
Freight traffics of coal, mln t c.f.(numerator-2002, denominator-2020)
Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East -West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in 2020 г
19
Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and priorities of territorial development of electric
power industry (optimistic variant)
European part
932 billion kwh
European part
SiberianFar East
Siberian and Far East
433 billion kwh
The maximal development of the atomic power station; Modernisation ТЭС on gas; development ГТГУ-ГТУ
ТЭС at a corner and water-power engineering
Hydroelectric power station, ТЭС and gas thermal power stations in cities
Economy of gas in the European part 7-8 billion cubic m per one year
Increase of manufacture on coal ТЭС and the decision of a problem of closed capacities of the Siberian hydroelectric power station
20
Wind and geothermal energy of RussiaWind energy of Russia
Geothermal energy of Russia
21
The forecast of investment needs of a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars)
Petroleum industry The gas industry
The coal industry Electric power industry
The total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in 2001-2010 and from 400 up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex in the general investments of Russia will make 33-35 % in 2001-2005, will decrease up to 31-33 % in 2006-2010 and up to 20-24 % to 2020.
22
Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t)
The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the report
billion t equivalent
Optimum variant Moderate variant
Emissions of firm substances
Volume of quotas for Russia for the first budgetary period 2008-2012
The volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to 2010 will make 75-80 % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach this level.