2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND ......2016/02/22 · D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13...

Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters

February 22, 2016

2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE,

OVERCROWDING, AND CAPITAL PLAN

DISTRICT 30 AND CITYWIDE

School Utilization Rates and Class Sizes

at critical levels • Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years.

More than 556,000 students citywide (53% of NYC’s student population) are in overcrowded buildings.

• Elementary schools city wide average building utilization rate is 103.5%

• Large classes continue to increase, with number of K-3 students in

classes of 30 or more doubling in the past five years

• More than 350,000 NYC school kids are in classes of 30 or more

• Class size averages have increased sharply citywide and in D30 since 2007, far above Contracts for Excellence goals of no more than 20 pupils in grades K-3, 23 in grades 4-8, and 25 in grades 9-12.

103.5%

84.0%

95.3%

107.0%

85.0% 92.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Elementary School City Wide Middle School City Wide High School City Wide

Citywide School Utilization Averages Over 556,000 NYC Students are in overcrowded classes and about 53%

are in overcrowded buildings Mean

Median

*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools

Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book

24,417

35,137

45,242 45,442 48,440

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Trend of K-3 Students in classes of 30 or more The number has nearly doubled in the past five years

Data Source: DOE Citywide Class Size Distribution data, 2011-15

Class sizes in D30 have increased in grades K-3

by 16.9% since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

21

20.7 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9

21 20.9 21.4

22.1

22.9

23.9 24.5

24.9 24.7 24.6

21.8 21.3 21.9

22.4 23.2

24.4 25

25.9 25.1 24.9

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Ave

rag

e S

tud

en

ts p

er

se

cti

on

D30 K-3 class sizes over time, way above C4E goals

C4E goals

citywide actual

D30

D30’s class sizes in grades 4-8 have increased by 3.9%

since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals


25.6

24.8 24.6

23.8 23.3

22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9

25.6 25.1 25.3 25.8

26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7

26.0 25.7

26.0 26.6

27.2 27.6 27.4 27.6

26.8 26.7

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Baseline 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Ave

rag

e S

tud

en

ts p

er

se

cti

on

D30 4-8 class sizes, way above C4E goals

C4E target

citywide actual

D30

26.1 26.2

26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3

26.7 26.8 26.7

26

25.7

25.2

24.8

24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Citywide HS class size trend compared to C4E goals

Citywide Actual

C4E Target

*DOE’s methodology for calculating HS averages has changed year to year


Class sizes citywide have increased in High School

since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals

Examples of schools in D30 with large class sizes, K-3 in 2015-16

29 28

27 27 27 26 26 26

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

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D30 Second Grade

32 31 31 31 31

30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29

28 28 28 28

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

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D30 First Grade

32 32 32 32 32 32 32

31 31 31 31 31 31 31

30 30

29

30

30

31

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32

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D30 Third Grade

Data sources: DOE Class Size Report Fall 2015

Proposed new capital plan vs. needs for seats • New proposed capital plan has about 49,000 K12 seats (compared to 33,000 in

May plan) – at an additional total cost of nearly $1 billion.

• DOE now admits real need of approximately 83,000 seats (compared to DOE

estimate in May of 49,245).

• Thus DOE is only funding 59% of need for seats according to its own projected

need.

• Many of those seats remain unsited even as to borough and district.

• CSM estimates real need is over 100,000 seats, based on enrollment

projections and existing overcrowding – with about 40,000 seats needed in

districts with utilization averages over 100%, plus 60K-70K more for projected

enrollment growth.

• DOE should fund at least their own estimated need of 83,000 seats at an

additional cost of $130 million per year in city funds.

Over-utilization in ES and MS buildings in

District 30, and Queens HS

• D30’s Elementary School building utilization average is 112.3%,–much higher than the citywide utilization average of 103.5%

• D30’s High School building utilization average is 109.1%,- much higher than the citywide utilization average of 95.3%.

• 25 ES and MS school buildings in CSD 30 are over-utilized. About 4,048 seats are needed for these buildings to reach 100% utilization.

• In Queens, 26 high school buildings are at or over 100% building utilization - with 13,295 additional seats needed.



Average Utilization Rates in D30 compared to City-Wide 2014-15,

1,756 seats needed to bring D30 average utilization to 100%

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity


112.3%

103.5%

87.2% 84.0%

109.1%

95.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

D30 ElementarySchool

City WideElementary

School

D30 MiddleSchool

City WideMiddle School

D30 High School City Wide HighSchool

25 ES and MS Buildings in D30 are over-utilized about 4,048 seats needed to reduce all over utilized buildings to 100% -

but only 4,536 in cap plan - does not account for projected new enrollment



221%

192%

155% 148% 136% 133% 129% 126% 126% 125% 125% 123% 123% 121% 120% 113% 112% 110% 110% 110%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

20 examples of D30’s over crowded school buildings, there are 25 in total

26 Queens HS buildings are over-utilized About *13,295 new seats needed to bring these school buildings to 100% but only 2,802 seats funded in cap plan



D30 School

Buildings in gold

140% 151%

107%

155%

120% 130%

139% 156%

104%

132%

160% 147%

197%

105% 108% 105% 117%

193%

123% 115% 121% 121%

104%

129%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

3,190

692 456 456

0

3,016

640 912

2,593

991

3,840

1,000

4,869

912

456

4,869

2,221

924 972

1,920

4,536

1,736

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31

Total Funded K-8 Seats In January 2016 Capital Plan by District 4,536 seats in D30

Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016

Number of seats added in the January Capital Plan 2,624 seats were added in D30


4,536

5,975 5,825

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

ES and MS New Seats fromJanuary 2016 Capital Plan

DOE Identified Need fromJanuary 2016 Capital Plan

Class Size Matters EstimatedTotal Need*

District 30, Grades K-8

District 30 includes sub-district Astoria/Steinway, which has some seats funded for design but

not construction. The neighborhood Long Island City is being rezoned to increase residential

development.

*Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need derived from seats needed to bring district average down to 100% utilization plus

Estimated Enrollment based on Housing Starts 2012-2021 and the average of consultant projections (Grier Partnership 2011-2021

and Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021.) Additional data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016, Blue Book 2014-2015.

New Capital Plan Seats and DOE Seat Need

vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need


99% 100%

44% 44%

0%

53%

26%

61%

76%

63%

51%

100%

47%

37% 35%

52%

43% 37%

56% 53%

76%

52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31

Funded Seats in Jan. 2016 Capital Plan compared to DOE's Identified Need by District (K-8 Only) –

76% of D30’s seat need is funded

*Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need derived from seats needed to bring district average down to 100% utilization plus

Estimated Enrollment based on Housing Starts 2012-2021 and the average of consultant projections (Grier Partnership 2011-2021

and Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021.) Additional data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016, Blue Book 2014-2015.

2,802

6,880

24,488

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

HS New Seatsfrom January 2016

Capital Plan

DOE IdentifiedNeed from

January 2016Capital Plan

Class Size MattersEstimated Total

Need*

New Capital Plan and DOE Seat Need vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need for Queens High

Schools

Queens High Schools and the Capital Plan

12%

41%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Queen High School % ofSeats Funded comparedto CSM's Estimated Need

Queen High School % ofSeats Funded comparedto DOE's Estimated Need

Queens HS funded seats compared to estimations of DOE and CSM

46%

100%

0%

33%

0%

9%

0% 0%

28%

0% 7%

0% 7%

19%

0%

31%

12% 19%

35%

23%

8% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

D2

D3

D7

D8

D9

D1

0

D1

1

D1

2

D1

3

D1

4

D1

5

D1

9

D2

0

D2

1

D2

2

D2

4

D2

5

D2

6

D2

7

D2

8

D3

0

D3

1

K-8 Seats in Scope/Design versus DOE Identified Need by District

*Scope/Design means that the seats are in the process of getting sited and constructed, as opposed to only being budgeted for


Percent of Seats in Scope/Design* compared to DOE Identified Need Only 15% of DOE’s Identified need are in Scope and Design

Only 8% of ES and MS seats in D30 and 7% of HS seats in Queens

Problems with DOE & SCA capacity to site and build

schools

• Only 8% of D 30 seats needed are sited & in scope & design; only 7% Queens HS.

• After 2 years DOE still has not determined in which borough or district most of

4900 seats in “class size reduction” category will built.

• Several overcrowded neighborhoods have had schools funded in the capital plan

for over a decade without DOE siting or building a single school

• SCA/DOE has real capacity problems in terms of efficient and accurate school

siting and planning

• Overcrowding will grow worse if Mayor’s rezoning plan to accelerate

residential development is adopted

• NYC needs to come up with a better process to ensure schools are built along

with new housing – instead of always playing catch up

NYC Council should create a Commission to improve

efficiency and accuracy of school planning and siting

• Among issues Commission could consider: do we need reforms to

the zoning and/or ULURP process?

• Should the formula used to estimate impact of new housing on

schools should be updated?

• Should enrollment projections be improved and carried out on a

more regular basis?

• Should NYC require impact fees from developers and/or use

eminent domain to site schools more frequently?

• Without reforms to the planning process, overcrowding is likely to

worsen, with school construction lagging years behind other

development

How you can help • Sign our petition at www.classsizematters.org urging

Mayor & City Council to expand the capital plan & form a

Commission to improve school planning

• Pass a resolution about need for same

• Come to the capital plan hearings at City Hall on Tuesday

March 8, at 1 PM to testify about overcrowding in your

district; public testimony starts at 3 PM.

• Sign up for our newsletter for updates on this and other

issues.

2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND ......2016/02/22 · D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13...

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Transcript of 2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND ......2016/02/22 · D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13...