AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

April 21, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. AQAP is partnering with local tribes in Yemen’s eastern Hadramawt governorate, where it has consolidated control over territory.

2. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif introduced a four-point plan to end the crisis in Yemen.3. Al Murabitoun claimed an SVBIED attack against MINUSMA forces.

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ASSESSMENT:

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its

followers in the West. ISIS cells in Libya appear to be dominating the Islamist fight whereas those that have emerged in Yemen

have not pulled too much strength from AQAP there. Al Qaeda will probably continue to try to emphasize the differences

between ISIS’s and al Qaeda’s strategies. AQAP in Yemen, for example, distances itself from ISIS-linked attacks.

A rumor persists that al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri has indicated he will absolve affiliates of their loyalty pledges to him

and allow them to operate independently. No official al Qaeda sources have given credence to the rumor.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to prioritize its fight in Syria, but will also take advantage of recent gains in Yemen. It will

continue to try to inspire low-scale attacks in the West.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAQIS confirmed that airstrikes killed two commanders, Obaid Ullah (Ustad Ahmed Farooq) and Qari Imran, earlier this year.

Pakistani Islamist groups, including the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) under TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah, the TTP’s Jamaat-

ul-Ahrar, and Lashkar-e-Islam announced they had merged to form a unified front against the Pakistan government and military.

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar had split from the TTP over Fazlullah’s selection as emir. There is a recent uptick in Balochistan violence.

The Pakistani military (PakMil) continues to target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in ground operations and air strikes

in tribal and urban areas of Pakistan, especially in Khyber. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and

Pakistani airstrikes target TTP leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.

Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan

border.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN Security Council passed a resolution on April 14 placing sanctions on former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s son, Ahmed

Ali Abdullah Saleh, and al Houthi leader Abdul Malik al Houthi. These sanctions, together with previous sanctions placed on al

Houthi leaders and Ali Abdullah Saleh, create an effective arms embargo on the al Houthi movement and al Houthi-allied

military units in Yemen. Separately, Iranian officials proposed a four-point peace plan to end the Yemen conflict on April 14,

although Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government has rejected the plan.

Outlook: The international community continues to support Operation Decisive Storm and Hadi’s government, though mounting

civilian casualties will increase anti-Saudi sentiment among Yemenis.

SecurityAl Houthi military expansion has incited local resistance in southern and central governorates. Anti-al Houthi militias continued

to battle al Houthi and al Houthi-allied forces for control of Aden city, Aden, and Taiz city, Taiz. The al Houthis attempted to enter

Ma’rib governorate and battled tribesmen through April 16. Separately, popular resistance committees in Lahij, Abyan, Ibb, al

Dhaleh, and Shabwah carried out attacks against al Houthi positions throughout the week.

Outlook: The growth of local resistance in southern Yemen could greatly inhibit the al Houthis’ ability to operate, though the

movements remain hyper-localized.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP is cooperating with local tribesmen in Hadramawt to consolidate control of territory. Ansar al Sharia militants continue to

hold al Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt, and seized Dhabah oil terminal in al Shihr, Hadramawt on April 16, along with a

number of other military installations. AQAP reportedly signed an agreement with some local tribes in the area forming a joint

committee to oversee al Mukalla.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to work with local tribes in Hadramawt and may seek to do so in neighboring Shabwah, where AQAP has worked with tribes before to combat al Houthi expansion.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

1) 11-17 APR: Al Houthi militants battled anti-al Houthi militias for control of Aden city, Aden.2) 14 APR: ISIS Wilayat Ataq militants claimed credit for the execution of 14 soldiers in Shabwah.3) 16 APR: Ansar al Sharia militants seized Dhabah oil terminal in al Shihr, Hadramawt.4) 11-17 APR: Saudi airstrikes struck al Houthi and al Houthi-allied military sites throughout Yemen.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomalia continued developing its political institutions with the signing of an agreement with Puntland, the unveiling of the

Jubbaland Parliament, and the opening of the State Formation Conference in Galgudud region. These steps are positive

developments in the Somali government’s attempt to implement a federal system and administer the country. Some clans,

however, feel underrepresented in the Jubbaland Parliament. The effort to form a Central Federal Member State has been

fraught with conflicts between different clans and groups in recent months.

Outlook: Political tensions are likely to rise in Central Somalia due to the State Formation Conference as various groups vie for

positions in the new administration.

Security Police arrested ten suspected al Shabaab members in a raid on a mosque in Kilombero district, Morogoro region, Tanzania on

April 14. Tanzanian security forces last clashed with suspected al Shabaab militants in Tanga region, northeastern Tanzania, on

February 15. While al Shabaab has not recently carried out an attack in Tanzania, it has demonstrated an ability to operate and

move in the country.

Outlook: Despite the lack of reported activity, it appears that al Shabaab maintains the ability to move and operate throughout

the entire Horn of Africa region.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab conducted a complex attack on the Ministry of Education building in Mogadishu on April 14. The attack included an

SVBIED followed by gunmen storming the building. Al Shabaab conducted similar complex attacks on hotels in the city popular

with government officials on February 20 and March 17.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue to carry out complex attacks on government buildings and personnel in Mogadishu as

they have transitioned from attempting to hold territory to a more insurgent strategy.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:1) 11 APR: Police killed two suspected al Shabaab members in Ukunda, Coast Province, Kenya.2) 14 APR: Al Shabaab conducted a complex attack in Mogadishu.3) 14 APR: Police arrested 10 suspected al Shabaab members in Kilombero district, Morogoro region, Tanzania.4) 16 APR: Al Shabaab militants hijacked a bus in Mandera county, North Eastern Province, Kenya.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThere have not been significant political developments.

Security

Libya Dawn has not managed to dislodge the LNA from its positions near the capital and LNA aircraft have conducted strikes on

Central Tripoli. Additionally, the reported defection of Brigade 101 in Tajoura and popular protests in Fashoum show significant

support for the LNA inside Tripoli. LNA forces in Benghazi have made significant gains, pushing militants out of their

strongholds in Hawari and Buhadema.

Outlook: It is likely that LNA forces will delay entering the capital until well after they are militarily capable of doing so. Pacifying

Tripoli is a massive task at which the LNA is not likely to succeed. Defections and protests against Libya Dawn are positive

signs, but they clearly do not represent the opinions of all relevant parties.

Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in Libya

ISIS gunmen killed two guards outside the South Korean embassy on Sunday before detonating an IED on the Moroccan

embassy the next day. Additionally, the organization claimed responsibility for a remotely-detonated VBIED that targeted the

military intelligence building in Tobruk.

Ansar al Sharia continued its social media campaign, publishing a number of picture sets and offering rewards to any person

killing top LNA leaders including Khalifa Haftar, Saqr Jaroushi, Mohammad Hijazi, Wanis Bukhadema, and Faraj Barasi

Outlook: ISIS’s attacks across the country demonstrate weakness rather than strength. While its actual capabilities are

unknown, low-level IED attacks and ambush-style gunfights indicate that it may lack the expertise, organization, or personnel to

conduct complex operations in areas other than Derna, Benghazi, and Sirte.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

AQIM

The Algerian military continued interdiction operations near its borders. The Algerian army discovered two weapons caches with

significant ammunition quantities, one in Tibhirine, near the Libyan border, and one in Tindouf, near the Moroccan border.

Outlook: Algerian army forces will continue to conduct search operations to secure Algeria’s borders.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Tunisian security forces continue counter-terrorism operations throughout central Tunisia. Tunisian security forces arrested

suspected terrorists in small numbers across Tunisia. One suspect who was arrested in Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia, was found

to have an explosive belt and several other weapons.

Outlook: Tunisian security forces will continue their small-scale counter-terrorism operations. Tunisian authorities have recently

increased such operations, particularly in light of the Bardo Museum attack.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Militants continued to target Malian military and UN peacekeeping forces throughout northern Mali. A landmine detonated

beneath a Malian military vehicle close to Diabaly, in central Mali, killing two Malian soldiers and wounding three others.

Separately, MUJAO militants executed an MNLA member near Deliman, in northern Mali. Meanwhile, al Murabitoun conducted

an SVBIED attack that targeted a MINSUMA camp in Ansongo, northern Mali, killing three civilians and wounding 16 others,

including several peacekeepers.

Outlook: Recent attacks against peacekeeping forces and the Malian army represents an unsettling trend in increased militant

activity. Islamist militant groups are likely to stage more attacks and will continue to benefit from Mali’s instability.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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WEST AFRICA

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1) 12-13 APR: ISIS attacked the Moroccan and South Korean embassies in Tripoli, Libya. 2) 13 APR: LNA forces cleared significant portions of the Hawari and Buhademaneighborhoods in Benghazi, Libya.3) 17 APR: A local Tripolitanian militia, Brigade 101, allegedly defected to the LNA and is actively fighting Libya Dawn for control of the Tajoura district of Tripoli, Libya.

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LIBYA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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1) 14 APR: Algerian forces discovered a weapons cache in Tibhirine, Algeria. 2) 15 APR: Tunisian forces arrested a terrorist and seized a weapons cache in Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia.3) 13 APR: Moroccan forces dismantled a five-member cell in Salwane, Morocco, that was planning terrorist attacks in Morocco and the Netherlands. A sixth member was arrested in the Netherlands.

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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1) 15 APR: Al Murabitoun conducted an SVBIED attack targeting a MINUSMA camp in Ansongo, Mali. 2) 17 APR: Militants attacked a MINUSMA convoy near Gao, Mali. 3) 12 APR: An IED exploded beneath a Malian military vehicle close to Diabaly, Mali.4) 14 APR: MUJAO militants executed one MNLA member in Deliman, Mali.

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SAHEL

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WEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

Regional Developments

Iranian officials continued to promote a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Yemen. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif laid

out a “four-point plan to stop the war in Yemen.” The points include “ceasefire, humanitarian aid, domestic dialogue in Yemen,

and the formation of an inclusive government.” Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan reiterated the plan

at a security conference in Moscow. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami also highlighted the “many

options” the al Houthis have “to fight Saudi aggression,” including “long-range missile capabilities…[and] missile, armor, and

artillery fire capabilities.” Iranian officials also hailed Moscow’s lifting of its self-imposed 2010 ban on delivering S-300 advanced

air defense missile systems. During his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Supreme National Security Council

Secretary Ali Shamkhani praised the lifting of the ban as “valuable.”

Outlook: Iranian officials will endorse Foreign Minister Zarif’s four-point plan as the solution to the crisis in Yemen.

Nuclear Talks

Senior Iranian officials continued to echo the Supreme Leader’s redlines for a final nuclear deal: immediate relief from all

sanctions and IAEA-led inspections of military sites are forbidden. President Hassan Rouhani explicitly warned the P5+1 that

“there will be no deal if the sanctions are not removed.” Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani reassured domestic critics of the nuclear

talks that Iranian negotiators are well aware of the redlines, while senior negotiator Hamid Baeidinejad stated: “All nuclear

sanctions will be terminated on the first day” that a final deal is implemented. Parliament’s Nuclear Committee, meanwhile,

published a memo of recommendations for an Iranian fact sheet in response to the U.S. fact sheet on the Lausanne framework

agreement.

Outlook: The final nuclear deal must guarantee immediate and complete removal of sanctions, Iran’s right to research and

development, and cede all future military site inspections.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1411 APR – 17 APR 2015

11 APR: Brig. Gen. Farzad Esmaili announced that Iran is planning to unveil “Bavar-373” missile defense

system by 2016.

12 APR: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said that nuclear negotiators had been reviewing sanctions relief as

a redline in negotiations.

12 APR: Expediency Discernment Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani drew criticism

from IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari after calling for reform in the judicial system.

14 APR: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif laid out a four-point plan to end the war in Yemen.

14 APR: Regime leaders hailed Russia’s decision to lift the ban on the delivery of the S-300 missile defense

systems to Iran.

14 APR: 213 Parliamentarians requested the publication of the Foreign Ministry’s Lausanne framework fact

sheet.

14 APR: The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati claimed that Iran has not

interfered in Yemen.

15 APR: President Rouhani said the Senate bill allowing Congress to review a final nuclear deal was “not

relevant” to Iran’s government.

15 APR: Parliamentary Nuclear Committee Chairman Ebrahim Kharkhanei published a memo of

recommendations for an Iranian fact sheet entitled “Proposition Page.”

15 APR: The Artesh unveiled new military equipment including a tactical vehicle and unmanned robots, while

the Artesh Air Force conducted drills over Tehran.

15 APR: The IAEA arrived in Tehran for technical talks.

17 APR: Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan announced that Iran will receive S-300s this year.

17 APR: In an open letter to IRGC Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, student Basij

members stated they are forming battalions of hackers to “disable Israeli facilities and factories.”

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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