2012WWK-PPT-Water Uncertainties and Production Risks by Akhtar Ali

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Water Uncertainties

and

Production Risks

Akhtar Ali, PhD

Asian Develo ment Bank

28/08/2012



• How water

resources

uncertainties

(WRU) matter and what is solution?

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a n

ements o

WRU

KnowledgeNatural

stochasticity ScaleChange

drivers

Operational /economic

Data/

inform‐

Model param‐

Temporal

varia‐

Spatial

Population,

land use

Construction,

O&M,

structure bilityvar a‐

bility

prototype changes, urbanization,

migration

damages, revenue,

inflation etc.

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Data/ observations/

Model 1

Model 1

Conceptual

Model

2

Mathematical

Model

2

Mathematical

observations/

information

Conceptual

Model

Model 1

Mathematical

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Model 2



WRU Natural/Stochasticity :

Precipitation

• Random processes • planning inaccuracy

• Spatial and

• R s s o too muc or

too little;

operational

• Modelcu t es

• Farmers interest is

• a a

• Climate Change

low in investment

• Low rainfed ields

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and productions



3000 Low Rainfall

2000

2500

/ y r )

High rainfall variability

High WR

uncertainties

1000

1500

f a l l ( m

500 R a i n

d o n e s i a

g l a d e s h

i p p i n e s

m b o d i a

L a o P R

i e t N a m

r i L a n k a

h a i l a n d

N e p a l

I n d i a

j i k i s t a n

C h i n a

y z e s t a n

a k i s t a n

a n i s t a n

a k h s t a n

a n g o l i a

e k i s t a n

r k e m a n

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I B a P h

i

CT

K y r

A f g K a U z

T

Source: FAO Aquastat data accessed on 18 Aug 2012



Water Uncertainties:

Hydrology and

Hydraulics

• Soil, topography and

, ,

runoff and soil erosion.

processes

such as coefficients

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• requency ana ys s

an

design issues



Water Uncertainties:

Extreme Events:

Floods

&

Drought

• Prediction difficulties

• Operat ona

management

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• Water pollution

(Point

&Non

‐point)

• torm water

• Groundwater abuse• Saline‐water intrusion

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Production Risks: Water variability

leads to

low

yield/production

a n a var a y an y ro og ca uncer a n es

Inability to

plan

accurately Implementation

difficulties

Soil‐moisture

variabilit

and

deficit

and

cro

stress

Water quantity/quality Farmers interest is low

Low yield and production

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Food insecurity Land

degradation



• Water quality leads to land

degradation and

reduced

production

• Soil erosion

reduce

fertility

and

production

• Floods dama e

to

cro s

and

infrastructure

•

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Water Resources System Uncertainties

xtremeweather

rrat c anhighly variable

precipitation

y ro og caand hydraulic

variance

xtremeevents

aterquality

Low yield High High Medium High Medium

d u c t i o n

Reducedcropped area Medium Medium High High Low

Low cropproduction High High High High Medium

i

c u l t u r a l p r armers

interest andinputs low

Medium High High High Medium

Loss or failure

Low Medium Medium High Low

i s k s t o A g

Damages tocrop

Medium Medium High High Low

Landde radation No Low Medium High High

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Livestockreduction

Low Medium Medium High Medium

Source: Author



• Minimize

• Improve database

uncertainties

• Improve regulatory

• Improve storages (surface +

• Manage water quality

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Improve Per Capita Storage

• America

6,150 m

3

/person• Australia 5 000 m3 erson

• Pakistan 132 m3/person

• Egypt (Aswan) 1,000 days (Niles)

• • Australia 600 days

• South Africa 500 days (Orange River)• India 120 to 220 days

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• Pakistan 30 days



Possible Options:

Improve Water

Productivity

• Canada 8.72 kg/ m3

• . g m

• China 0.82 kg/ m3

• India 0.39 kg/ m3 Yield gap

•Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m

3

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Possible O tions: Non‐water factors

What? How?

• Minimize

non‐water

• Diversify

crops

• Minimize est and diseaserisks to

agricultural

• Improve cultivation practices

• Make best

use

of

agri.

bi

‐products

production

system

• Invest in agri. marketing

• Farmers credits, crop insurance

• Develop agriculture conducive

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• Learn living

• Improve

forecasting

capacity

uncertainties• ncrease researc mpac s

• Raise water

awareness

• Promote efficient use of

water and water conservation

cu ture

• Care water quality

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•

uncertainties at:

– Information

and

Knowledge

level – perat ona eve

– Strategy and policy levels

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Fill Knowledge

Gaps Minimize

Harm

Scale U

Innovative

Create a Cooperative

Solutions Environment

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28/08/2012

2012WWK-PPT-Water Uncertainties and Production Risks by Akhtar Ali

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