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Food and

 Water

 Security

 in

 

Changing Times

Casey Brown

Universit of Massachusetts 

28/08/2012

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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•  

• Change in

 dietary

 composition

• Ur an popu ation growt

• Consumption, esp.

 food

 and

 energy

• Connectedness (ICT, global trade, 

transnational n os and

 cor orations

• Climate variability and change

28/08/2012

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• Low value and hi h value water users

 – Allocation 

of  

water 

when 

marginal 

value 

> 

0 – Urban/municipal vs rural/agricultural

 – Intra‐national and international shared resources

• Water Management

 practice

 and

 climate

 change

 – Adaptations in water management that respond to 

evolving and uncertain climate conditions

 

water values

 – 

28/08/2012

  , 

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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• Asia will not run out of  water

 –  In the long run

• Current trends will lead to increasing conflicts

• Water will inevitably flow to higher value uses ($$$)

• The management

 of 

 those

 conflicts

 will

 determine

 the

 

 – There will be crises

• reduce the economic, environmental and social costs 

of  that transition

28/08/2012

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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Does India Have Enough Water?Does India Have Enough Water?

100

Human Water Use as % of Total Accessible Renewable Supplies

70

80

90

Does notaccount for

50

60

Water Use Consumption

20

30

40

0

10

28/08/2012

Development Utilization Allocation

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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Climate Concern:  Variability

Status Quo GrowthGrowth

 with

 10%

 reduction

 in

 drought effect

500

600

 

500

600

 

300

400GDP per cap

Adjust GDP per cap

Linear (GDP per cap)300

400

GDP 

per 

capLinear (GDP per cap)

100

200Linear (Adjust GDP per 

cap)

100

200

0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

28/08/2012(Brown et al., 2012)

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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• “ 

transitions” 

 – Economic incentive

 – Po t ca  ncent ve

 – Technological feasibility

• Planners must focus on providing mechanisms 

for temporary and permanent water transfers

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Dug Well

 

Tube Well

28/08/2012

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Dug Well

Groundwater elevation

  x 

Tube Well

Drought

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Dug Well

Target Groundwater elevation  X 

 

Tube Well

28/08/2012(Brown et al., 2006)

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Well Pum in   & Drawdown Over 50 Year Plannin   Period

 Agent Based

Falling Water 

TableActualPum in

Pumping

UpperBound

Avg. AgentProfit:$5.8 mil

 

Water Table StreamflowViolationPercentage:

28/08/2012

.

(Mulligan et al., 2012)

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Landholding Sizes and Fragmentation

30000

35000

40000

45000

2000

2500Number

Cumm. Area

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

500

1000

        [       #        ] un a n  oe c en

G = 0.29

00

[ha]

80000

100000

120000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Number

Cumm. Area

20000

40000

60000

20000

30000

40000

50000

        [       #        ] Bihar

 

G = 0.74

28/08/2012

00

[ha](Fishman

 et

 

al., 2012)

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Manila Water  Supply  Costs – 

ry  Year    pt ons + Reservo r  In ex  Insurance

1200

Annual Costs for Farmer Buy-outs Contracts

Insured

600

800

   M   i   l   l   i  o  n   P  e  s  o  s

200

400

   C  o  s   t  s   i  n

        1        9        6        8

        1        9        7        0

        1        9        7        2

        1        9        7        4

        1        9        7        6

        1        9        7        8

        1        9        8        0

        1        9        8        2

        1        9        8        4

        1        9        8        6

        1        9        8        8

        1        9        9        0

        1        9        9        2

        1        9        9        4

        1        9        9        6

        1        9        9        8

        2        0        0        0

        2        0        0        2

        2        0        0        4

28/08/2012(Brown and Carriquiry, 2006)

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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Indus River Basin Adaptation  – New Dam?

5000000

Economic Production

4000000

4500000 CC Scenarios Baseline

2500000

3000000

3500000

     i     l     l     i    o    n     R     S

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

500000

y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21

28/08/2012

Year

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Indus River Basin Adaptation  – New Dam?

5000000

Economic Production

4000000

4500000 CC Scenarios Baseline NEWDAM

2500000

3000000

3500000

     i     l     l     i    o    n     R     S

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

500000

y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21

28/08/2012

Year

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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Indus River Basin Adaptation  – Economic Allocation?

Economic Production

4000000

5000000

CC 

Scenarios Baseline

1000000

2000000

3000000

      R     S

‐1000000

0    m     i     l     l     i    o

‐4000000

‐3000000

‐2000000

28/08/2012

years With Optimal AllocationWith Inter‐Provincial Agreement

7/31/2019 2012WWK-PPT-Food and Water Security in Changing Times by Casey Brown

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  ,  . .

Harvard Water Program Next Generation

Welfare Economics

‐

Nonstationarity

 

Economics

Infrastructure system design

Optimal Solutions

  – Top

 down

 planning

 

Bounded rationality

“Sustainability”

ToolsTools

Synthetic Streamflow

Optimization/Simulation

Seasonal climate forecasts (uncertain)

Environmental Monitoring (RS)

Consensus Buildingene

 os

 na ys s

Reliability

Agent‐based modeling

Economic Mechanisms and derivatives

28/08/2012

 

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•  

higher value

 water

 use

 

• Conflicts are

 unavoidable;

 crises

 are

 not

• Economic incentives are clear; innovative 

mechanisms needed that are politically and 

technologically feasible

28/08/2012