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    TREASURY QUARTERLY BULLETIN:

    October -December 2012

    Ministry of Finance

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    Table of Contents

    INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 3

    ECONOMIC OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 3

    Real Sector............................................................................................................................................... 6

    Agriculture ........................................................................................................................................... 6

    Mining ................................................................................................................................................. 10

    Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................... 12

    Electricity ................................................................................................................................................ 15

    Prices ...................................................................................................................................................... 16

    BUDGET PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................................................... 17

    FINANCIAL SECTOR ............................................................................................................................. 22

    Deposits.............................................................................................................................................. 22

    Interest on Deposits ......................................................................................................................... 23

    Total Bank Credit .............................................................................................................................. 26

    Zimbabwe Stock Exchange.............................................................................................................. 29

    Market Capitalisation ........................................................................................................................ 30

    EXTERNAL SECTOR .............................................................................................................................. 31

    Exports ................................................................................................................................................... 31

    STATISTICAL TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 37

    2012 Monthly Revenue and Expenditure figures (US$) .................................................................. 37

    Inflation December 2008 December 2012 .................................................................................... 42

    BOP Summary (US$m)......................................................................................................................... 44

    Monthly Foreign Payments in USD - Jan-Dec 2012 ......................................................................... 48

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    INTRODUCTION

    1. The 4th quarter being an economic pointer concludes the 4th series of

    2012 Treasury Bulletins. Whilst it provides an update on macro-

    economic and fiscal developments for the period October to December

    2012, it also provides an update for the year 2012.

    ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

    Real sector

    2. The overall economic slowdown, which was noted in the 3rd quarter

    during preparations of the 2013 National Budget is expected to have

    continued into last quarter of 2012. As a result, overall growth of 4.4%

    for 2012 as reflected in the Budget is still anticipated.

    3. Based on the above, agriculture performance was revised upwards to

    4.6% from an earlier projection of -5.8%, reflecting higher output of

    tobacco and cotton.

    4. In the last quarter, mining maintained its leading position in economic

    recovery and is estimated to have grown by 10.1% in 2012.

    5. Manufacturing, however, continued to face a number of challenges

    related to operation of obsolete machinery, power outages and lack of

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    funding, among other factors. Growth in the sector is therefore

    estimated to have recorded 2.3% against the 13.9% growth of 2011.

    6. Revised estimates for all other sectors as indicated in the 2013 National

    Budget are shown below:

    Sectoral performance (% Growth): 2009-2012 2009

    Actual

    2010

    Actual

    2011

    Actual

    2012

    Est.

    Agriculture, hunting and fishing 21.0 34.8 5.1 4.6

    Mining and quarrying 33.3 60.1 25.1 10.1

    Manufacturing 10.0 -4.0 15.0 2.3

    Electricity and water 1.9 19.1 7.8 0.3

    Construction 2.1 5.4 6.2 4.9

    Finance and insurance 4.5 5.6 2.0 5.1

    Real estate 2.0 5.4 3.1 4.9

    Distribution, hotels and restaurants 6.5 8.8 4.3 3.9

    Transport and communication 2.2 20.5 18.7 5.8

    Public administration 2.0 0.0 4.8 3.0

    Education 2.8 0.5 0.5 1.4

    Health 3.2 15.8 10.0 2.5

    Domestic services 2.2 6.7 0.4 1.5

    Other services 2.3 14.6 10.9 5.0

    GDP at market prices 5.4 9.6 10.6 4.4

    Public finances

    7. The Budget Performance during the last quarter of 2012 remained

    under pressure with revenue collections during the quarter recording

    US$996.5 million against US$821.5 million collected during the same

    period in 2011. This brings cumulative revenue for the year to US$3.5

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    billion against a revised target of 3.65 billion, primarily reflecting

    underperformance of diamond revenue.

    8. On the expenditure side, of the total of US$3.6 billion, recurrent

    expenditure absorbed US$3.2 billion to leave about US$0.301 billion for

    capital development projects.

    Financial sector

    9. In the financial sector, month on month growth in broad money was

    marginal with growth of about 2% in October and 0.28% in November

    2012. By end of November 2012, total deposits reached US$3.8 billion

    against total lending of US$3.4 billion.

    Inflation

    10. Annual inflation remained contained below 5%, reaching its lowest level

    in December 2012 at 2.9% from 3.4% for October and 3.0% for

    November. This was the lowest annual inflation recorded for the year.

    External Sector

    11. Exports in the 4th quarter of 2012 stood at US$1.2 billion, up from

    US$1.1 billion of the previous quarter. Cumulatively, exports for 2012

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    are estimated at US$3.8 billion, against total imports of US$7.5 billion.

    This gives a deficit of around US$3.6 billion which is unsustainable.

    Real Sector

    Agriculture

    Notwithstanding a prolonged dry spell during the last quarter of

    2012, the country received normal rainfall from the last week of

    December 2012 enhancing opportunities for the 2012/13 summer

    cropping programmes. Therefore if the above weather pattern is

    maintained, crop output projections for the 2012/13 season may be

    attained.

    Agriculture Production (000 tons)

    2011

    Actual

    2012 Mid Year

    Projection

    Revised 2012

    Projection

    2013

    Projection

    Tobacco 133 130.0 144.5 170

    Maize 1,452 968.0 968.0 1,400.0

    Beef 94 94.0 94.0 94.1

    Cotton 250 255.0 350.0 283.0

    Sugarcane 3264.6 4,476.9 4,476.9 4,500.0

    Horticulture 45 51.0 51.0 54.3

    Poultry 65 70.5 70.5 80.0

    Groundnuts 231 120.0 120.0 130.0

    Wheat 53 17.0 17.0 17.4

    Dairy (m lt) 63 64.5 64.5 70.0

    Coffee 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.5

    Soyabeans 84 70.5 70.5 115.0

    Tea 25 24.5 24.5 25.0

    Paprika 4 4.0 4.0 4.5

    Pork 13 13.8 13.8 15.0

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    2011

    Actual

    2012 Mid Year

    Projection

    Revised 2012

    Projection

    2013

    Projection

    Wildlife 47 48.0 48.0 49.0

    Sorghum 95 64.8 64.8 114.0

    Barley 44 44.0 44.0 44.0

    Sheep & goats 4 6.3 6.3 3.0

    Sunflower 12 15.0 15.0 17.0

    Ostriches 17 17.0 17.0 19.0

    Overall Growth 5% -5.8% 4.6% 6.4%

    Source: MoAMD.MoEPIP, MoF and RBZ

    Grain Deliveries

    12. During the last quarter of 2012, disbursements for grain delivered to

    Grain Marketing Board (GMB) amounted to US$3.29 million. This

    amount takes into account payments for grain delivered in the 2011/12

    season.

    2011/2012 GRAIN PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME: 4th

    Quarter

    Period Maize (US$295/ton) Wheat (US$466/ton) Small Grains

    (US$295/ton)

    Total

    Tonnage Value Tonnage Value Tonnage Value Tonnage Value

    Mt US$ Mt US$ Mt US$ Mt US$

    October 2,942 867,761 5 2,511 147 43,303 3,094 913,575

    November 587 173,164 2,301 1,072,162 - - 3,271 1,358,385

    December - - 2,193 1,021,730 - - 1,094 1,021,730

    TOTAL 3,529 1,040,925 4,499 2,096,403 147 43,303 7,459 3,293,690

    Source: GMB

    13. Deliveries of maize and small grains were depressed in the last quarter

    of 2012 owing to the drought experienced in the 2011/12 agricultural

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    season and the r