2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics
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Transcript of 2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics
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February 10, 2012
2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT
Multifamily Market Dynamics
Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research,Mortgage Bankers Association
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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andStructure Size, 2009
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Source:Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Composition of renter households, bybuilding size, 2009
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Source:Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Composition of Renter Households, byBuilding Size, 2009
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Source:Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andHousehold Income, 2009
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Source:Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Changes in Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, & Homeownership Rate
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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Projected population change, by age, 2010 2015 & 2015 2020
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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Number of Owner- & Renter-occupiedHouseholds, by Age of Householder, 2000 to2010
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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
Less than 35
years old Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to 64 Age 65 and older
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners andRenters Since 1992
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Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America(2011).
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since1992
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Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes TowardHome-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America(2011).
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates
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Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A.Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Percent of Tenants Probably or DefinitelyIntend to Renew
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Source: Kingsley Associates.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Multifamily Fundamentals
MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book
MBA Analysis of REIS Data
MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data
MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data
MBA Analysis of Moodys, NCREIF and Green StreetProperty Price Data
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & OccupancyRates, by Property Type by Quarter
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Source: Reis, Inc.
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Year-over-Year Percent Change in NetOperating Income Among NCREIF Properties
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Source:NCREIF.
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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andHousehold Income, 2009
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Source:Equity Residential.
Q3 2009 to Q3 2010 Q3 2010 to Q3 2011
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Commercial/Multifamily Property SalesVolume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million &Greater
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Source:Real Capital Analytics.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates,Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater
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Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices (2007Q3 = 100)
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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average(2007Q3 = 100)
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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF and Dow Jones.
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily MortgageDebt Outstanding ($thousands)
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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.
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Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted atAnnual Rate, Thousands of Units
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Source:Census Bureau.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
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Multifamily Finance
MBAs Annual Report on Multifamily Lending
MBAs Annual Origination Summation
MBAs Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage
Bankers Originations Index MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding
MBAs Annual Report on Commercial/MultifamilyMortgage Maturity Volumes
MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily
Mortgage Delinquency Rates
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Yi ld T N i l S iti t
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Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities atConstant Maturity, Monthly Averages of DailyData (percent)
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Source:Federal Reserve Board.
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Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending($Millions)
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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
M t B k M ltif il &
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Mortgage Bankers Multifamily &Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes(index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right)
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.
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I d f Q t l C i l/M ltif il
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Index of Quarterly Commercial/MultifamilyMortgage Bankers Originations, by InvestorGroup (2001 average quarter = 100)
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
O i i ti f F i M & F ddi M &
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Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac &Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending($Millions)
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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on MultifamilyLending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases.
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Multifamily Lending in 2010, by LenderAverage Loan Size
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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.
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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding($millions)
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Boards Flow of Funds.
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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding($millions)
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding.
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Multifamily and Other Commercial MortgageDelinquency Rates Among Major Investor
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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO)
Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including inprocess of foreclosure)
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Non Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily
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Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding MultifamilyMortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31,2010
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.
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Contact Information & MBA Resources
Jamie WoodwellVice President
Commercial Real Estate ResearchMortgage Bankers Association
1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036
MBA homepage:www.mortgagebankers.org
MBA research page:www.mortgagebankers.org/research
Research Institute for Housing America:http://www.housingamerica.org
MBA Newslink:http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink
2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
mailto:[email protected]://www.mortgagebankers.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.housingamerica.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLinkhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLinkhttp://www.housingamerica.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/mailto:[email protected] -
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MBAs Commercial/Multifamily RealEstate Research Reports
www.mortgagebankers.org/research
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/research