2010 08 Climate Change Futures on the Severn Estuary: The IMCORE Project – Dr Rhoda Ballinger
2012 02 The State of the Severn Report Dr. Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University
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Transcript of 2012 02 The State of the Severn Report Dr. Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University
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The State of the Severn Estuary Reporting
Rhoda Ballinger & Rachel Gregory
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Format of talk
• Need for Severn Estuary reporting
• State of the Severn Report
• Current report card series
• Way forward
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NEED FOR SEVERN ESTUARY REPORTING
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Context
• Common practice elsewhere
– Collating and interpreting baseline data
– Identifying trends
– Informing future decisions
– Raising awareness & understanding in local communities
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Context contd.
• Europe & ICZM
– Projects – sustainability
– Climate change implications
• Need for Severn Estuary reporting
– Severn Estuary Strategy
– SEP Business Plan priority
– INTERREG IV IMCORE / DELTANET
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STATE OF THE SEVERN ESTUARY REPORT
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2011 report aims• To provide:
– An overview of the ‘State of the Severn Estuary’
– A basis for future reporting
• To inform a wide-ranging audience, including Estuary users and local people about the Estuary
• Based on best available & most up-to-date data (2010)
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Related website development
• Digital publication– Virtual book– http://viewer.zmags.com/pu
blication/ad5b93bd#/ad5b93bd/1
• Estuary maps– http://www.severnestuary.ne
t/sep/estuary/maps.html
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Updating estuary web pages
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Feedback on report
• IMCORE Autumn 2011 workshop
• Supported state of the Severn reporting• simple Severn specific graphics & information
• importance of explaining ‘Why does it matter’ under each theme
• Recommendations included development of:
– Existing & additional themes
– Reporting process:• Indicator identification
• Engagement with local user groups
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REPORT CARD SERIES
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Aims
• To provide a concise & user-friendly snapshot of the State of the Estuary
• To update key trends from the State of the Estuary Report
• To expand on topics covered in:– 2011 State of the Estuary Report
– IMCORE Climate Change Report card series
• DELTANET project– sharing best practice
– raising estuary awareness
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Support for card development
• Environment Agency
– Rhys Morgan
• CUROP Cardiff University Student Placement
– Rachel Gregory
• DELTANET project
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Key themes for 2011 cards
• Population & development
• Port traffic
• Maintenance dredging
• Sea defence & shoreline management
• Bathing water quality
• The water environment– River flows
– Weather, sea conditions & climate change
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Area covered & reporting period
• Area covered by report card series– SAME area as for State of Severn
Estuary Report– Severn Estuary Partnership area– Severn Estuary & Inner Bristol
Channel
• Reporting period– Wherever possible 2011 data used– Comparison with:
• 2010 from State of Severn Estuary Report
• 2000 for selected topics
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REPORT CARD EXAMPLETHE WATER ENVIRONMENT
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The Water EnvironmentConsists of a total of 4 report cards covering a variety of topics
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Freshwater Flows
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
Severn
Wye
Usk
Taff
Rhymn…
Parrett
Ely
Ebbw
Mean Flow POR (m3/s) Mean Flow 2011 (m3/s)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Year
Rainfall measured at Bute Park, Cardiff
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Uncertainty Natural VariabilityModelling Uncertainty Future Emissions
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The North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong influence over the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. If it is in the positive phase, the UK tends to have warm, wet winters, and if it is in the negative phase, winters tend to be colder and drier.
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Sea Level & Wave Heights Sea level has increased at approximately 2.4mm/yr over the past 15 years
However, maximum sea levels appear to be decreasing, while minimum sea levels appear to be increasing
Wave height has increased over the past 25 years, which is likely to be linked to the positive state of the NAO. This drives stronger westerly winds leading to bigger waves.
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Storminess, Wind Speed & Wind Direction There are a number of conflicting predictions as to the effects of climate change on storminess.
Wind direction can effect the direction of wave attack on the shoreline, and therefore significantly increase erosion. This was illustrated at Penarth in 1997/98.
Wind speed has decreased by approximately 12.5 % over the past 25 years.
This may be related to the NAO, although climate change and urban development have also been suggested as possible causes.
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WAY FORWARD
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• Draft selection for your feedback– style & format– types of information– Topics
• Launch of 2011 cards• Additional cards to be
developed – consider:– Topics /indicators– Data availability – Links to other data
collation/collection– DELTANET priorities– Cost/time considerations
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Further considerations• Website
– Provision of even simpler ‘headlines’ on topics– Inclusion of sections on how & where information can be used –
• Engagement – signposting & targeting key stakeholders
• Senior Management/ Elected Councillors / Local user groups
• Resourcing
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THANK YOUDIOLCH YN FAWR [email protected]
WEBSITE: http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/publications/soser.html