2011_2Q Home Sales Report

VirginiaQuarterly Home Sales Report

Second Quarter 2011

2011-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page �

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011

10 000

12,000

8,000

10,000

nd C

ondo

Sal

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6,000

ily, To

wnh

ome

an

4,000

er o

f S

ingl

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m

2,000Num

be

0

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008 4,823 5,776 7,325 8,047 8,881 9,742 9,474 8,894 8,072 7,418 5,543 6,680

2009 4,758 5,391 6,740 7,212 8,096 9,849 9,593 8,536 8,006 8,366 7,876 6,549

2010 4,556 4,880 7,063 8,321 8,884 10,474 7,122 7,197 6,419 6,022 6,003 6,457

2011 4,690 5,094 7,048 6,599 8,005 8,777

Residential home sales in Virginia during the second quarter of 2011 were not as strong as in the second quarter of 2010, however much of this is due to impact of the federal home buyer tax credit in 2010. The April 30, 2010 and June 30, 2010 closing deadlines for the federal home buyer tax credit temporarily inflated home sales in April and June of last year, causing April 2011 and June 2011 home sales to appear quite low comparatively.

The good news for the balance of 2011 is that we will likely see stronger performance than in 2010, as the third and fourth quarters of 2010 were extraordinarily slow after so many buyers rushed to close in the second quarter of 2010.



30,000

Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

26,670 26,440

25,15726,135

22 791

27,679

23,38125,000

es

19,641

22,791

20,745

18,50220,000

e an

d C

ondo

Sal

e

16,889 16,499 16,832

15,000

amily

, To

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ome

10,000

mbe

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5,000

Num

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2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Quarter

Virginia residential home sales showed a strong improvement (+39%) between the first quarter of 2011 (16,832 sales) and the second quarter of 2011 (23,381). Due to the impact of the federal home buyer tax credit in the second quarter of 2010, the best year over year comparison is with 2009. In that time frame, home sales declined 7% from 25,157 sales in the second quarter of 2009 to 23,381 sales in the second quarter of 2011. The third quarter of 2010 shouldn’t be too hard to beat during the coming months, as it was the slowest third quarter of home sales in several years.



95,000

Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

90,784 90,894 90,675

89,640

90,97290,582

93,104

90,000es

88,127 87,822 87,714

85 000

,

e an

d C

ondo

Sal

e

83,425 83,75885,000

amily

, To

wnh

ome

79,46080,000

mbe

r of

Sin

gle

Fa

75,000Num

70,000

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2011-Q2 figure includes home sales from 2010-Q3 through 2011-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized rate of home sales in Virginia has only fallen 12% over the past three years, which overall, is not a significant decline. The federal home buyer tax credit in late 2009 and early 2010 started to breathe life back into the real estate market, but buyer activity quickly faded in the 3rd (and then 4th) quarter of 2010 after that incentive had passed.

The decline in the annualized rate of home sales (down to 79,460) is not too surprising given that this is the first time that 2010-Q2 data is not included in our analysis. That old data supports faster sales, higher prices, etc.



Region 2010-Q2 2011-Q2 Change

Central Valley 1,498 1,280 -14.6%

Greater Richmond 4,246 3,492 -17.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,928 5,085 -14.2%

Northern Virginia 13,147 10,938 -16.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 2,073 1,813 -12.5%

Southside Virginia 500 454 -9.2%

Southwest Virginia 286 314 +9.8%

Central Valley-14.6%

Northern Virginia-16.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-12.5%

Southwest Virginia+9.8% Southside Virginia

-9.2%

Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

-14.2%

Greater Richmond-17.8%

Regional Changes in Sales2010-Q2 vs. 2011-Q2 Units

Most regions in Virginia witnessed a decrease in home sales when comparing the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2010. The Southwest Virginia area was the only area showing an increase in home sales. Furthermore, the two largest metro areas in the state took the biggest losses in the pace of home sales, with Northern Virginia declining 17% and the Greater Richmond area declining 18%.



$300,000

Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$2

60

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46

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0 0 ,90

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$2

49

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$2

$2

29

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$2

16

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$2

29

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$2

29

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$2

25

,83

9

$2

25

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$2

39 $

$2

33

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21

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00

$2

35

,0

$250,000

e

$2

$200,000

edia

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Pri

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$150,000

Me

$100,000

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Quarter

Despite turbulent times in housing markets across the country, the median sales price of homes in Virginia has only declined a total of 10% over the past three years. Most recently, since the second quarter of 2010, the median sales price has only declined 2% to $235,000.

The overall Virginia housing market witnessed an increase in buyer demand in the second quarter of 2010, translating into a temporary spike in the median home price as well -- which increased to $249,900 by the third quarter of 2010. This temporary boost was helpful for home sellers in the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter of 2010, but has quickly faded over the past six months.

We will likely not see a stabilization (or increase) in the median home value until we start to see an overall increase in buyer demand via an increased pace of home sales. That may have started to occur over the past several months, so it is possible that we will see price stabilization by late 2011 or early 2012.




Central Valley $217,250 $203,157 -6.5%

Greater Richmond $192,000 $178,685 -6.9%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $219,000 $199,000 -9.1%

Northern Virginia $315,000 $330,000 +4.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $155,000 $148,975 -3.9%

Southside Virginia $89,000 $75,000 -15.7%

Southwest Virginia $113,750 $107,450 -5.5%


Central Valley-6.5%

Northern Virginia+4.8%

Southwest Virginia-5.5% Southside Virginia

-15.7%


-9.1%


Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2010-Q2 vs. 2011-Q2

As for median prices, Northern Virginia seems to be the first (and only) region to currently be recovering, with a 5% increase in sales prices. The remainder of Virginia experienced a decline in median sales price varying from 3.9% (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Blackbsburg) to a decline of 15.7% in Southside Virginia.

It is also interesting to note the continued wide disparity in median sales prices across the state, ranging from a low of only $75,000 in Southside Virginia to a high of $330,000 in Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia’s stability in median sales price was despite a 17% decrease in home sales between the second quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011.



8 4819,000

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales VolumeSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

8,481

8,005

7,182

7,622

8,191

6 910

8,000

5,585

6,404 6,399

5,430

6,910

6,000

7,000

ntia

l Sal

es

4,416 4,549 4,462

4,000

5,000

Dol

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of

Res

iden

2 000

3,000

Mill

ions

of

D

1,000

2,000

0

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Quarter

If we disregard the second quarter 2010 data (last year) we see that second quarter 2011 (with $6.9 billion of residential sales) comes very close to the volume of home sales seen two years ago (7,282) in the second quarter of 2009.

The decline in median sales price over the past two quarters will also likely impact these volume statistics, as the overall volume of residential real estate sold may show a decline even if the same number of units sell this year as compared to last year.



120

Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

100 99103

108

96

91

100

92

100

8784

86

7981

91 92

80

ket

60

age

Day

s O

n M

ar

40

Ave

ra

20

0

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Quarter

When looking at a three year history, the average time to market and sell a house has not experienced much of a change – from an average of 100 days in second quarter 2008 to 92 days in first quarter 2011. The average speed of the home sales has in fact increased. Of note, this metric of average days on market did dip remarkably low to only 79 days on the market in second quarter 2010 – again, timed with two of the expirations dates of the federal home buyer tax credit.

The fact that the average days on market continues to decline is an indication that we may be towards better times in the local housing market.


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2010-Q2 2011-Q2

29

58

35

$1.5M - $2M

$2M + -17%

264

58

629

278

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M $2M

-5%

+2%

2,275

642

2,220

2,515

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K $1M

rice

Ran

ge

+2%

-10%

-16%

3,303

1,873

6,867

4,145

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K $500KPr 16%

-20%

-26%

6,630

5,077

2,557

8,382

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K 26%

-21%

+26%3,230

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

0 - $100K

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

+26%

Sales of homes in almost all price ranges experienced a decline over the past year -- though the under $100,000 category and the $750K to $1M price range show improvements in the second quarter of 2011.

Despite declines in all mid range homes ($200,000 to $500,000) home sales above $500,000 remained relatively stable over the past year. The increase in the sale of lower priced homes and the decline in the sale of higher priced homes has likely been a key contributor to declines in median sales prices. Also, Northern Virginia’s median sales price in the mid $300,000s is an indicator that many of the home sales over $500,000 were likely in that one region. With overall increases in the frequency of sales of higher priced homes, this has fared well for the median sales price of homes in the Northern Virginia region.


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®


Central Valley 271 308 +13.7%

Greater Richmond 2,194 2,060 -6.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 3,245 3,426 +5.6%

Northern Virginia 5,001 5,744 +14.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 465 397 -14.6%

Southside Virginia 208 198 -4.8%

Southwest Virginia 39 142 +246.1%

All of Virginia 11,423 12,275 +7.5%

Central Valley+13.7%

Northern Virginia+14.9%


Southwest Virginia+246.1% Southside Virginia

-4.8%


+5.6%


Regional Changes in Foreclosures2011-Q1 vs. 2011-Q2

Overall, Virginia witnessed an increase in foreclosures when comparing second quarter 2011 to first quarter 2011. It is important to note that some areas (Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg, Greater Richmond and Southside Virginia) continued to see declines (-14.6%, -6.1%, -4.8%) in foreclosure rates despite the fact that other areas experienced an increase in foreclosures.

It is possible that Southwest Virginia’s sharp increase in foreclosures during the second quarter of 2011 may be attributed to the end of the foreclosure moratorium, according to RealtyTrac, the source of the above data.


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 1�

Monthly Residential Sales

555,000508,000

500 000

600,000

700,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

10,474

8,777

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

4 000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

100,000

0

2,000

4,000

Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

Annual Median Residential Sales Price

$247,500

$229,000$236,250$245,000

$265,000

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

$198,100

$172 500 $172 900$165,000

$185,000

$205,000

$225,000

$172,500 $172,900

$125,000

$145,000

$165,000

2008 2009 2010

While median home prices have declined in both Virginia and the United States over the past two years (comparing 2010 to 2008), it seems that home values may be recovering in Virginia more quickly than in the United States as a whole. The United States median sales price stayed relatively level between 2009 and 2010 (less than 1% change) while the median sales price in Virginia increased by 3% during the same time period.

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both Virginia and the United States experienced a decline in home sales between June 2010 and June 2011, though that is largely due to the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit in June 2010 that temporarily elevated the sales pace during that month.



Unemployment Rates By Stateseasonally adjusted, May 2011

(U.S. rate = 9.1 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

7.2% 7 0%7.4%

7 0%7%

8%

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

4.0% 4.0%

5.1%

6.7%7.2%

6.9% 7.0% 7.0%6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

6.0%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2%

3%

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Virginia’s unemployment rates have now declined for five straight months, from 7.4% down to 6.0%. While it may be quite some time until Virginia reaches returns to an unemployment rate as low as 4.0% (as in 2008-Q2), it is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market. Of note, Virginia continues to fare quite well as compared to other states across the United States, as only six states have lower unemployment rates than Virginia.



6 5%

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

6.3%6.0%

5.3%5.4%

5 1%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

5.0% 5.1%4.9% 5.0%

4.7%

4.4%

4.7%4.8%

4.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3.0%

3.5%

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

6 5%

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

5.9%5.6%

5 0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

5.0%

4.6%4.9%

4.5% 4.4% 4.3%4.2%

3.8%4.1% 4.1%

3 7%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3.8%3.7%

3.0%

3.5%

2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2

Mortgage interest rates have remained extraordinarily low over the past three years --- with 30 year rates dipping down to only 4.5%, and the average 15 year rate falling below 4% again to only 3.7% in the second quarter of 2011. Interest rates will likely stay below 6% for the foreseeable future, though they may start to increase as we continue throughout 2011.



The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Greater Richmond:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

2011_2Q Home Sales Report

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