2011_1Q Home Sales Report

VirginiaQuarterly Home Sales Report

First Quarter 2011

2011-Q1Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page �

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011

10 000

12,000

8,000

10,000

nd C

ondo

Sal

es

6,000

ily, To

wnh

ome

an

4,000

er o

f S

ingl

e Fa

m

2,000Num

be

0

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008 4,823 5,776 7,325 8,047 8,881 9,742 9,474 8,894 8,072 7,418 5,543 6,680

2009 4,758 5,391 6,740 7,212 8,096 9,849 9,593 8,536 8,006 8,366 7,876 6,549

2010 4,556 4,880 7,063 8,321 8,884 10,474 7,122 7,197 6,419 6,022 6,003 6,457

2011 4,669 5,051 6,827

Residential home sales in the first quarter of 2011 have followed the general trend of the last several years with year-to-date sales just 0.3% above last year. January and February home sales in 2011 exceed the same month the prior year (by 2.5% and 3.5%), however March 2011 home sales fell 3.3% below last March. The second quarter of 2011 will likely not be as rosy as last year, as April 2010 and June 2010 were two of the deadlines for the federal home buyer tax credit, which lead to abnormally high sales figures.



30,000

Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

26,670 26,440

25,15726,135

22 791

27,679

25,000

es

17,924

19,641

22,791

20,738

18,48220,000

e an

d C

ondo

Sal

e

16,889 16,499 16,547

15,000

amily

, To

wnh

ome

10,000

mbe

r of

Sin

gle

Fa

5,000

Num

0

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Quarter

Thus far, 2011 has stayed closely on track with both 2009 and 2010, with first quarter home sales (the orange bars above) within 2% of home sales in each of the prior to years. The best quarter of home sales over the past three years was the 2nd quarter of 2010, largely due to the federal home buyer tax credits, which enticed buyers to enter the market with deadlines of April 2010 and June 2010. Without the tax credit in place this year, it will be difficult for 2011 home sales to come close to 2010 levels.

Beyond the lack of a tax credit, there are several other factors that could affect the housing market in Virginia (and beyond) through the remainder of 2011. There are currently discussions by some in Washington of eliminating the mortgage interest deduction, which would likely create a significant downward pressure on buyer demand and on home values as a result. Furthermore, changes in the FHA financing program, as well as reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, may increase the cost of mortgages to home buyers, which will also decrease buyer demand.



96,000

Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

94,104

93,10494,000

es

90,784 90,894 90,675

89,640

90,97290,582

90,000

92,000

e an

d C

ondo

Sal

e

88,12787,822 87,707

86,000

88,000

amily

, To

wnh

ome

83,398 83,446

82 000

84,000

mbe

r of

Sin

gle

Fa

80,000

82,000

Num

78,000

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2011-Q1 figure includes home sales from 2010-Q2 through 2011-Q1. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized rate of home sales in Virginia has fallen 11% over the past three years, which overall, is not a significant decline. The federal home buyer tax credit in late 2009 and early 2010 started to breathe life back into the real estate market, but buyer activity quickly faded in the 3rd (and then 4th) quarter of 2010 after that incentive had passed.

Over the past three months, the housing market seems to have become a bit more stable, as the annualized rate of sales has leveled off. If we see an increase in this annualized rate in the 2nd quarter of 2011, it may be evidence the real estate market is starting to rebound again.



Region 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 Change

Central Valley 783 834 +6.5%

Greater Richmond 2,279 2,474 +8.6%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 3,502 3,950 +12.8%

Northern Virginia 8,243 7,594 -7.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,171 1,172 +0.1%

Southside Virginia 337 352 +4.5%

Southwest Virginia 179 165 -7.8%

Central Valley+6.5%

Northern Virginia-7.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+0.1%

Southwest Virginia-7.8% Southside Virginia

+4.5%

Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+12.8%

Greater Richmond+8.6%

Regional Changes in Sales2010-Q1 vs. 2011-Q1 Units

Many regions in Virginia witnessed an increase in home sales when comparing the 1st quarter of 2011 to the 1st quarter of 2010. The Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay area showed the best performance in the state, with a 13% increase in home sales over the past year. Greater Richmond and the Central Valley also performed well, with 8.6% and 6.5% increase over the past year.

Northern Virginia showed the largest decline in home sales with a 7.9% decline over the past year, followed shortly thereafter by Southwest Virginia with a 7.8% decline.



$300,000

Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$2

50

,00

0

$2

60

,00

0

46

,50

0

0 0 ,90

0

$2

49

,90

0

00

$

$2

$2

29

,00

0

$2

16

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0

$2

29

,90

0

$2

29

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0

$2

25

,83

9

$2

25

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0

$2

39 $

$2

33

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21

0,0

00

$250,000

e

$2

$200,000

edia

n S

ales

Pri

ce

$150,000

Me

$100,000

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Quarter

Despite turbulent times in housing markets across the country, the median sales price of homes in Virginia has only declined a total of 16% over the past three years. Most recently, since the 1st quarter of 2010, the median sales price has declined 6.7% to $210,000.

The overall Virginia housing market witnessed an increase in buyer demand in the 2nd quarter of 2010, translating into a temporary spike in the median home price as well -- which increased to $249,900 by the third quarter of 2010. This temporary boost was helpful for home sellers in the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter of 2010, but has quickly faded over the past six months.

We will likely not see a stabilization (or increase) in the median home value until we start to see an overall increase in buyer demand via an increased pace of home sales. That may have started to occur over the past several months, so it is possible that we will see price stabilization by late 2011 or early 2012.




Central Valley $196,750 $187,020 -4.9%

Greater Richmond $185,000 $170,000 -8.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $207,000 $189,000 -8.7%

Northern Virginia $280,815 $280,000 -0.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $149,900 $140,000 -6.6%

Southside Virginia $82,488 $73,750 -10.6%

Southwest Virginia $116,450 $92,700 -20.4%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-6.6%

Central Valley-4.9%



-10.6%


-8.7%

Greater Richmond-8.1%

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2010-Q1 vs. 2011-Q1

Northern Virginia was the only region without a decrease in median sales price over the past year, as shown in gray above (-0.3%). The remainder of Virginia experienced a decline in median sales price varying from 4.9% (Central Valley) to 20.4% (Southwest Virginia).

It is also interesting to note the continued wide disparity in median sales prices across the state, ranging from a low of only $73,750 in Southside Virginia to a high of $280,000 in Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia’s stability in median sales price was despite a 7.9% decrease in home sales between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011.



8 4819,000

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales VolumeSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

8,481

8,005

7,182

7,622

8,191

8,000

5,483 5,585

6,404 6,398

5,4256,000

7,000

ntia

l Sal

es

4,416 4,5494,387

4,000

5,000

Dol

lars

of

Res

iden

2 000

3,000

Mill

ions

of

D

1,000

2,000

0

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Quarter

First quarter 2011, with $4.4 billion of residential sales has matched the starting pace of each of the past two years ($4.4B in 2009-Q1, $4.5B in 2010-Q1). The differentiating factor for the past several years has been the second, third and fourth quarters. Second quarter 2010 had the advantage of the federal home buyer tax credit, which is no longer in place, thus second quarter 2011 will likely show a decline from the $8.2 billion of residential sales in second quarter 2010.

The decline in median sales price over the past two quarters will also likely impact these volume statistics, as the overall volume of residential real estate sold may show a decline even if the same number of units sell this year as compared to last year.



120

Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

106

100 99103

108

96

91

100100

8784

86

7981

91

80

ket

60

age

Day

s O

n M

ar

40

Ave

ra

20

0

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Quarter

When looking at a three year history, the average time to market and sell a house has not experienced much of a change – from an average of 106 days in first quarter 2008 to 100 days in first quarter 2011. Of note, this metric of average days on market did dip remarkably low to only 79 days on the market in second quarter 2010 – again, timed with two of the expirations dates of the federal home buyer tax credit.

Since the final expiration of the tax credit (June 2010), the average time to market and sell a home has steadily increased back to levels seen two and three years ago. The next several months will be important to watch as we continue through the spring and then summer real estate markets. Increased buyer activity (as is typical at this time of year) could help to level off this days on market market indicator – or, a flurry of new listings could cause it to continue to rise even higher above current levels.


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2010-Q1 2011-Q1

21

34

20

$1.5M - $2M

$2M + +5%

-9%

132

31

298

131

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M $2M 9%

+1%

+6%

1,219

317

1,222

1,208

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K $1M

rice

Ran

ge

+6%

+1%

-9%

2,059

1,115

4,087

2,333

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K $500KPr 9%

-12%

-8%

5,246

3,766

1,888

5,278

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K 8%

-1%

+40%2,641

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

0 - $100K

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

+40%

Sales of homes priced under $100,000 increased by 40% over the past year – however most other price ranges witnessed a decrease in sales. In fact, all price ranges between $200,000 and $500,000 experienced a decrease in home sales over the past year – other than this most affordable price range under $100,000.

Despite declines in all mid range homes ($200,000 to $500,000) home sales above $500,000 remained relatively stable over the past year. The increase in the sale of lower priced homes and the decline in the sale of higher priced homes has likely been a key contributor to declines in median sales prices. Also, Northern Virginia’s median sales price in the mid $300,000s is an indicator that many of the home sales over $500,000 were likely in that one region. With overall increases in the frequency of sales of higher priced homes, this has fared well for the median sales price of homes in the Northern Virginia region.


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®


Central Valley 441 271 -38.5%

Greater Richmond 2,645 2,194 -17.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 3,933 3,245 -17.5%

Northern Virginia 6,409 5,001 -21.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 627 465 -25.8%

Southside Virginia 332 208 -37.3%

Southwest Virginia 48 39 -18.7%

All of Virginia 14,435 11,423 -20.8%

Central Valley-38.5%


Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-25.8%


-37.3%


-17.5%

Greater Richmond-17.1%

Regional Changes in Foreclosures2010-Q4 vs. 2011-Q1

Every region in Virginia witnessed a decline in foreclosure during first quarter 2011, ranging from a 17.1% decline (Greater Richmond) to a 38.5% decline (Central Valley). While there are still plenty of foreclosures taking place in Virginia (11,423 in first quarter 2011) this 20.8% overall decline across the state is a promising indicator that we may see a gradual improvement in the health of the overall housing market.

Data Source: RealtyTrac


Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Page 1�

Unemployment Rates By Stateseasonally adjusted, March 2011

(U.S. rate = 8.8 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

7.2% 7 0%7.4%

7 0%7%

8%

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

4.0% 4.0%

5.1%

6.7%7.2%

6.9% 7.0% 7.0%6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

3.6%

2%

3%

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Virginia continues to fare quite well in keeping residents employed, compared to the rest of the country. While the unemployment rate has increased 75% in Virginia over the past three years to 6.3%, it still remains well below the national average of 8.8%. It is also important to note that Virginia’s unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the past two years, and has started to decline over the past year from 7.4% in March 2010 to 6.3% in March 2011.



6 5%

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

6.0%

6.3%6.0%

5.3%5.4%

5 1%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

5.0% 5.1%4.9% 5.0%

4.7%

4.4%

4.7%4.8%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3.0%

3.5%

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

6 5%

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

5.4%

5.9%5.6%

5 0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

5.0%

4.6%4.9%

4.5% 4.4% 4.3%4.2%

3.8%4.1% 4.1%4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3.8%

3.0%

3.5%

2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Mortgage interest rates have remained extraordinarily low over the past three years --- with 30 year rates declining from at/above 6% to below 5%. Interest rates hit their lowest point in the 3rd quarter of 2010, with a national average of 4.4% on a 30 year interest rate and 3.8% on a 15 year rate. Interest rates will likely stay below 6% for the forseeable future, though they may start to increase as we continue throughout 2011.



The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Greater Richmond:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

2011_1Q Home Sales Report

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