2011-2030 Airbus Pocket Guide Delivering the Future
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Transcript of 2011-2030 Airbus Pocket Guide Delivering the Future
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P O C K E T G U I D E
Global Market Forecast
2011-2030
deliveringthe future
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Global Market Forecast 2
Global Market Forecast
2011-2030
Passenger aircraft edition
Executive Summary 12
Passenger Trafc 18
Demand for Aircraft 24
By Segment (SA, TA, VLA)By region
Drivers & Challenges 32 Population Growth/Urbanisation
Network evolutionFuel Issue
Summary Results 44
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Dear Reader,
I you are reading this pocket guide, there isno doubt that you are interested in the uture o civil aviation,with the majority o you, like us,passionate about the industry and keen to playa part in its continued positive development;not only or those directly involved in the business, but orthe billions o passengers who today and in the uture willneed and have access to its bene ts.
There is no denying aviation’s importance in terms o socialand economic growth and the huge strides it has taken in
a very short space o time, not only in terms o supply,but environmentally, with each aircra t or example 70%more uel e cient than just orty years ago.
Aviation's value to the modern world was emphasisedrecently with the rapid recovery o passenger tra c
ollowing the worst nancial crisis experienced or decades,
a resilience that was also in evidence ollowing prioreconomic cycles.
This year, in order to make it easier or you to access thein ormation in the Airbus Global Market orecast, we havealso produced this pocket guide, a simple ormat romwhich to retrieve its key ndings on the passenger f eet and
uture deliveries. Our orecast or the reight market will bepublished separately in uture, ref ecting its importance to
Airbus and the industry.
In producing GMF2011, it became clear that there are ourkey messages that it would be use ul to highlight by meanso an introduction…
Your forecasting team
deliveringthe future
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Global Market Forecast 4
1
The expression the “miracle o f ight” is seldom heard thesedays, it is taken or granted that i we want to visit a clientin the US, Europe or the emerging markets in Asia, we cana ordably get on an aircra t and be there the next day. I wewant to visit our riends or relatives who have moved awaywith their jobs or example, it’s easy, no more di cult thana ew clicks o a mouse and a trip to the airport. But justbecause we don’t say it much in today’s modern world, itdoesn’t mean that f ying is no longer a man-made miracle.I someone were to say that they were going to take you toan altitude where you couldn’t breathe, where you wouldexperience temperatures around -50 degrees, and then leaveyou there or anything between one and ourteen hours, youwouldn’t be very keen to go with them. Yet that is exactlywhat 2 billion passengers do every year, without even a secondthought, as they f y to every corner o the world.Even when economic crises or other events serve to dam-pen demand, as we have seen rom time to time, people still
need to f y, with air tra c quickly returning to more normalgrowth levels. Even during a period when aviation had threeo its severest tests ollowing 9/11, SARs, and the recent
nancial crisis, aviation still managed to grow 45%, a actthat can only mean people really do need and want to f y.
What about the uture? Airbus commissioned an internatio-nal study o over 10,000 people around the world, who willbe the passengers o 2050, and what they expect rom airtravel in the uture. From these respondents, 69% said theyexpected to f y more, with the reasons in order o impor-tance being, 1 economic growth, 2 a desire to see moreo the world, 3 the need to see riends and amily spreadacross the globe, and 4 greater exibility betweenhome and the workplace.However, signi cantly, they also stated that reducing CO 2
emissions was one o the top two areas where they wouldlike and expect to see technological advances. The goodnews is, so do we. In the last 40 years, manu acturers
People value f ight ,
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have reduced the uel burn o aircra t and there ore CO2
emissions by 70%, noise by 75%, with work continuing todeliver urther improvements. In the last ten years the de-mand or jet uel has increased 3%, whilst tra c in termso RPKs (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) has increased45%. Aviation will continue to strive to become ever moreeco-e cient, reducing uel burn per aircra t to the bene to the environment and airlines, who ace the prospect o
uel being a signi cant portion o their operating costs in theyears to come.
0
1970 1975 1980 19901985 1995 2005 20102000
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
5.0
Source: ICAO, Airbus
O i l C r i s i s
O i l C r i s i s
G u l f
C r i s i s
A s i a n
C r i s i s
W T C A t t a c k
S A R S
F i n a n c i a l C r i s i s
+45%
Air travel has proved to be resilientto external shocks
but not at any cost
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Global Market Forecast 6
2
One component o tra c growth, as always, will be theexisting travellers who will simply need to f y more. In asurvey Airbus conducted recently on the uture o f ying,respondents suggested they expected to nearly double thenumber o times they f ew each year in the uture. However,with emerging economies around the world rapidly growingtheir economies and as a result growing the wealth o theircitizens, more and more people will be able to bene t rom
More People will have access to the bene ts o f ight
0
5 , 0
0 0
1 0 , 0
0 0
1 5 , 0
0 0
2 0 , 0
0 0
2 5 , 0
0 0
Trips* per capita - 2010
Seychelles
Barbados
Malta
*Passengers originating from respective countryNote: GDP in 2005 US$Source: IATA PaxIS, Global Insight, Airbus
Cyprus
Bahrain
Bahamas
St Lucia
Fiji
Cape verde
Samoa
JordanCosta Rica
Malaysia
Mauritius
Czech rep.
OmanLatvia
Saudi Arabia
Belarus
Angola
SwazilandLiberia
Senegal
Bangladesh
Lesotho
Bolivia
Iraq
Chad
Chile
Uruguay
Slovakia
Maldives
Brunei
Slovenia
South Korea
TrinidadIsrael
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Hungary
World average
Equatorial Guinea
Brazil
China
India
Russia
Emerging economies: more people can y
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3 0 , 0
0 0
3 5 , 0
0 0
4 0 , 0
0 0
4 5 , 0
0 0
5 0 , 0
0 0
5 5 , 0
0 0
0.01
0.1
1
2010 Real GDP per Capita
10
NewZealand Singapore Macao
IrelandIceland
SwitzerlandDenmark
Netherlands
Sweden
USA UK
Belgium
Finland
Japan
Canada
Italy
HK
UAE
Australia
GermanyFrance
Kuwait
aviation and fy or the rst time. This e ective and conti-nuing democratisation o aviation, and something that ishappening every day.
Today, whilst having an aviation in rastructure that is alreadylarge and growing ast, the people o China take just0.2 trips per person per year. This compared to the largestdomestic aviation market in the world in the US, where theirfying citizens take on average nearly 2 trips per person peryear. Increasing wealth will however move these countriesalong the fight curve, fying more and helping to drive our
orecast passenger tra c growth at a 4.8% average annualgrowth rate per annum over the next 20 years.
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Global Market Forecast 8
Forty years ago, 76% o the world’s tra c f ew rom, to orbetween North America, Western Europe and Japan. Today,as more o the world has embraced f ight and been able totake advantage o its bene ts this share has dramaticallyreversed. Some 57% is now centered in other parts o theworld. This is not to say that these original regions will not
also grow, they will, almost doubling their tra c over ourorecast period.
0 1990
Rest of world
Traffic within & between USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan
1970 2010 2030
4.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
6.0
2.0
70%
57%
43%30%
37%
63%76%
24%
Source: Airbus GMF 2011
RPK (trillion)
70% o 2030 tra fc volumeswill be between expanding regions
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3Single-aislesconnecting people
73% o the eet by 2030
71% o new deliveriesin the next 20 years
87% o all routes
78% o seats
87% o requencies
78% o the eet in 2010 Aircra t≥ 100 seats
87%o all route
Single-aisle aircra t, like the A320 amily and the 737NG,are a very signi cant part o today’s aviation network. Takingaircra t above 100 seats, 87% o all routes are f own bysingle-aisles and 78% o all seats o ered globally are on asingle-aisle aircra t. They really do connect people.
This is a broad segment, covering rom about 100 seats to210 seats. It is no surprise there ore that the most success-
ul products in this market are those that o er a completeamily, o ering maximum choice and f exibility or airlines,
with the largest o these very o ten needing the completespectrum o size on o er. As single aisle aircra t are an importantcomponent o the f eet today and will still be in 20 yearstime, it is also no surprise that this segment should becomethe ocus o new entrants and e orts to reduce the environ-mental impact o aviation. Today, there is an opportunity to
urther reduce the environmental ootprint o these aircra tthrough new engine and aerodynamic technologies, but
also to reduce their cost o operation by reducing uel burn. This is also signi cant due to the act that as uel pricesrise, uel becomes an ever increasing share o an airline’soperating costs. At Airbus, the A320neo will reduce uelburn by 15% when it comes into service in 2015. Anotherbig step in aviation’s development, magni ed by the impor-
tance o this segment to the overall aviation network.
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Global Market Forecast 10
4
Whilst a key design goal o new aircra t is to reduce the uelthat they burn and, there ore, the CO 2 emitted, it is alsoimportant to scale the aircra t to market requirements andin particular, to the ever growing numbers o people who willhave access to aviation and will f y between the increasingnumber o aviation mega-cities and hubs. By 2030, therewill be 87 such cities, increasing rom 39 in 2010, expan-sion driven by population growth and a rapidly urbanizingworld. Today, about 50% o the world’s population lives incities, by 2030, this will be nearly 60%. More importantly
rom an aviation perspective, 91% o the people f ying long-haul in 2030 will want to f y to, rom or between these verybig points. These dense markets are exactly the ones orwhich the A380 was designed; o ering the right capacity atthe right operating cost and right uel burn per seat or theairlines operating in these markets.
Very Large aircraftconnecting the world
Seattle
Santiago
2010 mega-cities
Additional aviation mega-cities from 2010
Rio deJanero
Luanda
Accra Lagos
Barcelona
Bogota
Panama
BostonDetroit
Philadelphia
Lisbon
Dublin Vienna
IstanbulTehranKuwait
Addis
Dhaka
Nairobi
Perth Auckland
Brisbane
Ho Chi MinhManilaTaipei
JeddahCairo
Mexicocity
Lima
Dallas
Destinations with more than 10 000 daily long haul pax
87 aviation "mega-cities" in 2030
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There are no aircra t today that can o er better uel burn perseat and there ore eco-e ciency than the A380.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast is able to project theuture routes on which Very Large Aircra t (VLAs) will operate
in the uture. It is clear that many o these are the world’smajor population centers and the places where peoplelive, work and travel. I single-aisle aircra t are connectingpeople, VLAs will connect the world.
Level of RPK from/to each city in 2029
100-250 million 125-1000 million 1-5 billion >5 billion
Hubs important today and tomorrow
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Global Market Forecast 12
E x E
c u t i v E
s u m m a r y
The speed o the aviation industries recovery rom the latest2008/2009 nancial crisis, is testament to the importance o aviation to the world’s businesses and to people in their dayto day lives. Our orecast suggests that tra c will more thandouble in the coming 20 years as aviation becomes moreaccessible to those in emerging markets as well as the moretraditional markets in Asia, Europe and North America.
People will increasingly travel between the major populationcenters around the globe, developing, strengthening and
North America
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
C.I.S.
World network evolution rom 2010 to 2030
2010
Executive
summary
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By plotting the actual network operated in 2010 andrelative to our orecast network in 2030, it is clear to seethat the market will grow signi cantly, with Asia growing inimportance over time, to become the largest single market.
C.I.S.
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
North America
Asia / Pacific
Europe
2030
sustaining relationships in a way that only ace to acecommunication allows.
At the same time we in the industry will seek to continueto innovate to improve the whole f ying experience or pas-sengers, and to reduce the cost or both airlines and theenvironment: a goal that has been at the ore ront o theindustry or the last orty years, as it is today and will be inthe uture
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E x E
c u t i v E
s u m m a r y
Global Market Forecast 14
The world’s passenger aircra t feet (above 100 seats) willgrow rom 15,000 at the beginning o 2011 to just over31,000 by 2030. At the same time, some 10,500 aircra t
rom the existing feet will be replaced by more eco-e cientmodels. O these, 3,400 will be recycled back into passen-ger service, where they too will replace older generation lesseco-e cient aircra t with another airline.It is also orecast that 2,200 aircra t will be converted to reigh-ters with the remaining 8,300 permanently retired or with-drawn rom service.
The Airbus orecast continues to predict that the greatestdemand or passenger aircra t will come rom airlines in theUnited States, the People’s Republic o China and Germany,with their mix o global, low-cost and charter airlines.Europe will receive 22% o the total, with North America and
Asia-Paci c taking 22% and 34% respectively. In addition,the world’s airlines will require about 5,000 smaller aircra t,either jet or turbo-prop ( rom 19 to 100 seats) to serve
regional demand, especially in the US and Europe.
20-year demand or 26,921 aircra t worthUS$ 3.2 trillion
5,000
10,000
20,000
15,000
30,000
35,000
25,000
0Beginning 2011 2030
Fleet size
+ 3.8 % per annum
31,424
15,002
Growth
Replaced
Stay in service
16,422
10,499
3,4401,063
Newaircraft26,921
Recycled
Passenger aircraft >100 seats (excluding freighters)
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Globally, deliveries o single-aisle aircra t rom 100 to 210seats are the most signi cant in terms o volume and value,with these aircra t supplying nearly 80% o all the seatsf own today and 43% o the total, calculated at sticker
prices.
New passenger aircra t demand willaverage 1,350 per year
0Single-aisle Small
twin-aisleIntermediate
twin-aisle Very large
aircraft
10,000
20,000
25,000
15,000
5,000 1,3311,9074,518
19,165
Source: Airbus
17%
28%
7%
15%
5%
14%
% unit
% value
71%
43%
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E x E
c u t i v E
s u m m a r y
Global Market Forecast 16
The twin-aisle segment (250-400 seats), combining smalland intermediate types, is broad in terms o seating andrange, but also in terms o operations which vary romdomestic and regional routes (where today the A330-300is excelling in Asia or example) to inter-continental f ying,where they per orm a key role connecting the large aviation“mega” hubs to secondary airports, a role in which the
A350XWB is soon set to excel.
New aircra t demand by region
76% 80%
84 %16 %
2 0 %
15%43 % 41% 1%
17%
3%
4%
North America Middle East
Europe
5,950 899
5,901 1,882
CIS
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72 %82%
25%
3
16%
2 %
Latin America Africa
2,028 1,101
62%
3 1%
7%
Asia-Pacific
9,160
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very large aircraft
Whilst the 24% o deliveries is small compared to single-aisle delivery volumes, this segment will account or 43% o deliveries by value.
Finally, Very Large Aircra t like the A380 will increasingly play akey role connecting the world, primarily through key aviation“mega” hubs like London Heathrow, Dubai and Hong Kong.
Today, we already see the versatility o this class o aircra tin moving people e ciently domestically, regionally andinternationally.
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Global Market Forecast 18
P a
s s E n
g E r t r a F F i c
Despite two o the most di cult downturns in aviationhistory, both periods in which tra c growth was negative
or a time, tra c in terms o revenue passenger kilometers(RPKs), has grown more than 45% since 2000. Comparing2000 with 2010, it is clear rom where much o the growth iscoming, with the emerging markets o China and India morethan doubling, and the Middle-East, with its airline’s levera-ging the bene ts they have in terms o geography, wealthand global demographics, growing tra c nearly 230%.
North America+11%
Latin America+29%
Today's passenger tra fc 46% above 2000 levels
Latest trafc
projections
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ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)
Source: OAG, comparing month of September, Airbus
Europe+34%
Middle East+229%
Africa+87%
CIS+146%
China+124%
Asia-Pacific+34%
IndianSubcontinent
+141%
re-con rm growth
Even markets, that are generally considered more maturehave grown, with North America and Europe growing theirinter-regional passenger tra c 11% and 34% respectively.
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Global Market Forecast 20
TRaFFiC FOReCasT4.8% AAGR 2010-2030
1/3 RPKs by a carriers5.8% aaGR growth in a43% total RPKs n. am r c & europ carriersM ddl e t market share to 11%
10
12
86
4
2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
World annual traffic(RPKs - trillions)
Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years
AirbusGMF 2011
ICAOtotal traffic
Air traffichas doubledevery 15 years
20-year worldannual trafficgrowth 4.8%
Air travel remains a growth market
P a
s s E n
g E r t r a F F i c
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TRaFFiC FOReCasT: TOP FLOWs
1 t Us Dom t c 11.1% RPK ow
Still the biggest ow in 20302 d Ch Dom t c 9.2% RPK owSignifcant growth at 7.2%3rd i tr W. europ 7.5% of RPK owEurope in 5 o the top 10 tra fc ows
20-yeargrowth
5.7%
% of 2030world RPKs
2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic
4.0%
6.1%
4.9%
5.6%
33%
23%
3.3% 20%
6%
7.4% 11%
4%
3%
CIS
Latin America
MiddleEast
North America
Europe
AsiaPacific
Africa
Traffic by airline domicileRPK (billion)
2,0001,0000 3,000 4,000 5,000
GMF 2011 - Airbus Market Research & Forecasts
20-year worldannual trafficgrowth 4.8%
Asia-Pacifc to lead in world tra fc by 2030
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Global Market Forecast 22
P a
s s E n
g E r t r a F F i c Traffic at end 2010 4.8 trillion RPKs
Traffic at end 2030 12.3 trillion RPKs
59%Global
Network
4%
Charter
5%Regional
& Affiliate
13%Ma jor
Network
15%LCC
4%Small
Network
5 6%GlobalNetwork
3%
Charter
4%Regional
& Affiliate
14%Ma jor
Network
19%LCC
4 %Small
Network
Airline segmentation - world tra fc evolution
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Largest 20 tra fc ows in 2030
I world tra c is segmented by airline type, it can be seenthat with 70%, Global and Major Network carriers will conti-nue to per orm most o the world’s tra c. The Low Costmodel will continue to grow its share to 19% o RPKs by2030, indicating that there is still opportunity to expand thismodel, particularly in Asia.
20-yeargrowth
2.4%
% of 2030world RPKs
7.2%
3.2%
3.9%
5.7%
4.3%
5.1%
11.1%
9.3%
7.5%
5.4%
2.3%
9.8% 2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
6.8%
6.4%
6.2%
5.7%
6.2%
6.6%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
4.6% 1.4%
5.5% 1.4%
6.6% 1.4%
3.8% 1.4%
7.1% 1.4%
5.6% 1.7%
Middle East-Western Europe
Domestic India
United States-Western Europe
Intra WesternEurope
Domestic PRC
DomesticUnited States
Asia-Western Europe
South America-Western Europe
Asia - PRC
Intra Asia
Central Europe-Western Europe
Indian Sub-Middle East
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Asia
North Africa-Western Europe
Middle East-United States
Asia-Middle East
PRC-United States
Japan-United States
PRC-Western Europe
Traffic by airline domicileRPK (billion)
4002000 600 800 1000 1200 1400
GMF 2011 - Airbus Market Research & Forecasts
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Global Market Forecast 24
The range o seating in the single-aisle segment is broadwith the types segmented between 100 to 210 seats. Our
orecast predicts that the centre o gravity or the categorywill remain at 150 seats. However, larger capacity types willsee more signi cant volumes than smaller types, with 7,600deliveries expected in 175 and 210 seat categories over theperiod. It is interesting to note that, rom our analysis, 50%o deliveries will be to airlines who need deliveries acrossthree or more single aisle segments.
0125100 150 175 210
2,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
3,000
1,000
4,757
2,864
6,429
3,380
1,735
Source: Airbus GMF 2011
Number of new aircraft
Aircraft segment
Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenger aircra tdeliveries
Single-aisle
19,000 reasons to deliver the best
D E m a n D F
O r a i r
c r a F t
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s gl l t l rg11,700 aircra t representing 78% o the eetglobally. By 2030, orecast to stand at 73%.
Fl t to doubl23,000 aircra t, an average annual eetgrowth o 3.4% per annum.
19,200new aircra t deliveries
40% r pl c m t11,300aircra t or growth.
50% to North Americanand European markets
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Global Market Forecast 26
D E m a n D F
O r a i r
c r a F t
Bro d gm t,250-400 seats
Fl t to doubl to 7,100 aircra t
40% demand replacement
3,800 aircra t or growth
44% deliveries to Asia
32% to N.America and Europe
>12% to the Middle East
D E m a n D F
O
Twin-aisle
Broad segmentation,broad demand
The majority o demand will be ocused on the 250 and300 seat segments with 70% or 4,500 deliveries made to
airlines rom these segments. The remaining 1,900 aircra twill be rom the larger segments in the twin-aisle category,including aircra t up to 400 seats like
the A350-1000XWB.
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0300250 350 400
1,000
2,000
2,500
1,500
500
7011,206
2,1562,362
Source: Airbus GMF 2011
Number of new aircraft
Aircraft segment
2,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
4,000
0
Beginning 2011 2030
Fleet size
+ 4.0 % per annum
7,105
3.264
Growth
Replaced
Stay in service
3,841
2,584
571109
Newaircraft6,425
Recycled
Passenger aircraft >− 100 seats (excluding freighters)
Twin-aisle 2011-2030 new passenger aircra tdeliveries
Twin-aisle eet in service evolution
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Global Market Forecast 28
D E m a n D F
O r a i r
c r a F t
Very large aircraft
Efcient Flexible
av r g z cr gin VLA segment 2010 GMF vs 2011 GMF
45% deliveries to Asia
19% to European airlines Asia-Europe ow is a driver
23% to Middle EastGeographical advantage exploited
DXB, PeK, HKG, LHRto be top VLA airports by 2030
2021-203057
% of worlddeliveries
5,9%
North America2011-2020
22
2021-203038
% of worlddeliveries
3.1%
Latin America2011-2020
3
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Optimised
10LAX
19SFO
5JFK
4LHR
6CDG
14FRA
1DXB
18GRU
20ICN
1 1N R T
2PEK
3HKG
8DEL
13BOM 17
CAN
7SIN
12BKK
16SYD
9PVG
15SHA
Source Airbus
Based on number of aircraft
By 2030, 12 o the 20 largest VLA airports
will be in Asia-Pacifc
New deliveries o VLA aircra t by region
2021-2030371
% of worlddeliveries
45.0%
Asia-Pacific2011-2030
228
2021-203027
% of worlddeliveries
2.9%
Africa2011-2020
11
2021-2030186
% of worlddeliveries
22.7%
Middle East2011-2020
116
2021-203010
% of worlddeliveries
1.6%
CIS2011-2020
122021-2030134
% of worlddeliveries
18.8%
Europe2011-2020
116
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Global Market Forecast 30
D E m a n D F
O r a i r
c r a F t
Asia-Pacifc: to drive world demand
Latin America
Latin America
Latin America
Large replacement market / Mature domestic marketStill developing international market / Largest freight base
High growth / Large developing marketsLarge cities / Fast developing LCCs
Sustained growth / Still untapped Central European marketsStrong long haul international market / Asia’s largest international market
Latin America
Latin America
Latin America
opean mar
market
Asia-Pacific
20-year new passenger aircraft demand >100 seats (excluding freighters)
Europe & CIS
North America
5,901 aircraft demandUS$557 billion
9,160 aircraft demandUS$1.3 trillion
6,849 aircraft demandUS$766 billion
62%
4%
19%
77%
1%15%
84%
7%
31%
A regional
overview
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Latin America, Middle East & A rica to represent19% o 20-year new passenger aircra t demand
Stability and new confidence / Economies to grow further Aviation resistant to downturn / Many emerging markets
2,028 aircraft demandUS$197 billion
Central to world population & wealth / 5 billion people next doorGlobal ambition and vision / High growth
1,882 aircraft demandUS$336 billion
Home of the next India / Economic promise to realitySustaining the momentum / Intra-regional market untapped
Latin America
Latin America
Latin America
Latin America
grow furt
Latin America
n people n
Latin America
reality
20-year new passenger aircraft demand >100 seats (excluding freighters)
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
1,101 aircraft demandUS$126 billion
82%
2%16%
41%
16%
43%
72%
3%25%
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Global Market Forecast 32
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
+ Dr v r• Economic growth driven by emerging
economies• Yield decrease (-0.4% yearly average in real
terms)• Deregulation in Asia, Latin America, Africa• Tourism development• Rise of the "emerging economies"
middle classes
• Hubs & secondary cities with connectingand large point to point tra fc• LCCs in Latin America, Middle East, Africa, Asia
When Airbus is compiling its orecast each year, it must as-sess which actors are likely to drive or enable the growthand shape o our industry in the uture. But equally, wemust consider the risks and challenges that may hinder orchange our outlook. The past is always a good place tostart or as Edmund Burke stated in the 1700’s "Those whodon't know history are destined to repeat it".
The uture:
driversand challenges
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20,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
60,000
70,00080,000
90,000
100,000
40,000
02010 2030
Real GDP (billion US$)
Contribution to 2010-2030 real GDP growth
Developing economies:4%Other emerging economies:17%
BRIC economies:39% Advanced economies:40%
Emerging economies expected to account
or 60% and developing o the world economicgrowth rom 2010 to 2030
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
BRIC + other emerging/developing
Advanced
Many o the astest growingows are to, rom and betweenthese regions and countries.
2030 GDP COnTRiBUTiOn
39%
60%
40%
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Global Market Forecast 34
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
Population
to drive the market
BRIC + Other emerging (54 countries)
Developing countries
Advanced (31 countries)2010 POPULaTiOn
69%
16%
15%
Together with GDP and yield, population is one o the keydrivers o air tra c growth. The large and growing populationso the emerging markets, combined with their increasingwealth, particularly in Asia, will help to drive growth in thecoming years.
Additional countries regularly eeding air travelgrowth
1970
adv c d co om
• 31 countries• 15% of world population
in 2010• 1 billion people in 2010
BRiC co om
• 4 countries• 42% of world population
in 2010
• 2.9 billion people in 2010
1990
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0
1,000
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1,500
500
2010 Population (millons)
Advancedeconomies- 31 countries- 15% of world
population
BRICeconomies- 4 countries- 42% of world
population
Otheremergingeconomies- 50 countries- 27% of world
population
Developingeconomies- 119 countries- 16% of world
population
Emerging countries
Emerging countries representing 69% o worldpopulation in 2010
The propensity to travel in a given country is closely linkedto the GDP per capita and the wealth and disposable incomeo the people living there.
2030 2050
Oth r m rg gco om
• 50 countries• 27% of world population
in 2010• 1.9 billion people in 2010
D v lop g co om
• 119 countries• 16% of world population
in 2010• 1.1 billion people in 2010
2010
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Global Market Forecast 36
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
5,000
4,000
165251
333
1,740
703
105181
338
525
664
234107
313
322
3,228
680
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,845
0
Millions of people
3,249
4,884
Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus.
Sub Sahara AfricaMiddle East & North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe
2010 2020 2030
"Global middle class" expected to riseto 4.9 billion people by 2030,with 66% in Asia-Pacifc
Increasing wealth,
increases There is no doubt that as people become wealthier, their pro-pensity to fy increases. One measure or driver is the numbero middle class today and in the uture in a country or region.However, the de nition o middle class can vary depending
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ability to fy
With increased economic activity,population and the increasing middleclasses in developing nations, it canbe expected that these countries willincreasingly contribute to the growth
in air tra fc.
people
in Asia-Pacifc
growthWORLD MiDDLe CLass in 2030
4.9 billion
66%
X2.5
on which economist you talk to. But what is clear is that theywill grow, particularly in the Asia-Paci c region, and by onede nition will grow by more than two and a hal times in num-ber by 2030.
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Global Market Forecast 38
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
Emerging
markets will growlong-haul as well as short-haul
neTWORK GROWTH
2x long-haul tra fc growth to network growth.Highest growth between A rica, Asia-Pacifc& Middle East.China to contribute to growth in Asia, and 40% o new city pairs connecting South-East Asia,the Indian subcontinent and Australia.
500%
400%
300%
200%
100% 150% 200%
Europe-AsiaIntra Africa/Middle East/Europe
Intra Africa/Asia-Pacific/Middle East
Intra Asia-Pacific
Intra AmericasTransPacific
Transatlantic
100%
20-year evolution and share of long-haul trafficfor selected traffic flows (RPK), 2010 set to 100%*
Circle diameter proportional to 2030
share on total long-haul traffic
# of nonstop city-pairs2030 vs 2010
Long-haul tra fc on routes linkingthe emerging regions will triple overthe next 20 years
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500
400
300
200
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 5
2 0 1 0
20002010
AAGR:2.5%
20002010
AAGR:3.4%
Long haultraffic+6%
Long haultraffic+7%
+3% +8%
100
Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic(offered seats), base 100 in 1980
Short-haul trafficLong-haul traffic
Long-haul tra fc grew stronger than shorthaul tra fc, despite two external shocksin the last decade
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Global Market Forecast 40
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
Today, the vast majority o long-haul tra c f ows are rom, toor between a relatively small number o aviation Megacities.
We have identi ed 39 cities through which more than 90%o the world’s tra c passes. Roughly hal o this tra cconnects to another destination either via a mega or secondarycity.
Aviation mega-cities
of networks today
10,000
12,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2010 2020 2030
Passengers
0
Monthly long-haul traffic per type of route start/endpoint (passengers)*
* Long haul traffic: flight distance > 2,000nm, excl, domestic traffic
Aviation Megacity<->
Aviation Megacity
Aviation Megacity<->
Secondary City
Secondary City<->
Secondary City
27%
24%
20%3%4%
22%
Connecting traffic
Nonstop traffic% on total long-haul traffic
More than 90% o the world's long-haultra fc starts, terminates or goes throughan Aviation Mega-city today
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As well as the development o the long-haul market, theshort haul, either domestic or intra/inter-regional will alsogrow. One element in these markets that has already helped
to grow tra c are the low cost airlines and their businessmodels, which strive to maximise aircra t utilisation, andminimise costs and ares or passengers. The airlines whospecialise in this model will also help to grow uture airtravel particularly in Asia, where the model, whilst alreadyestablished, has opportunity to grow in north east Asiaand China or example. With low costs enabling low ares,the growth o this model in the region will urther stimulatetra c, by enabling some passengers the opportunity econo-mically to f y be ore they might otherwise have been able to.
at the heart
and tomorow
Long-haul tra fc passes through them
In developed markets in 2010
Aviation mega-cities in 2030
Split developed-emerging by 2030
short-haul tra fc share in 2030
Aviation mega-cities in 2010
short-haul tra fc share in 2010
aViaTiOn MeGa-CiTies
LOW COsT aiRLines
90%
2/3
87
50:50
34%of ll tr fc 2030
n w d m d
19%Enable
39
28%
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Global Market Forecast 42
D r i v E r
s &
c h a l l E n
g E s
Challenges
also to shape theIt is well understood that the aviation industry is cyclical,with economic cycles, and occasional exogenous shocksimpacting demand. At these times, the perception o peopleand businesses as much as the actual impact o theseevents, can be as detrimental. Equally, as the economiccycle moves into a more positive phase, so too does theaviation industry.However, other actors can and do infuence the industrywhich must be considered. Environmental considerationshad a broad impact in the past, with legislation on noise,supported by the industry, in the late 1990’s leading tochanges to the feet, at a cost to airlines or example.
These have reduced the impact on the neighborhoodsthat grow up around many airports, o ten as a result o theopportunities that proli erate near them.
Today, and in the uture, environmental legislation will shapethe industry. As in the past the industry will invest intechnologies and adapt their models to meet thesechallenges. However, with the slim margins and signi canteconomic and social bene ts o aviation these actionsshould be measured and global.
140
120
100
8060
40
20
0
1 9 8 0
1 9 9 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 1 0
2 0 2 0
2 0 3 0
WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)
Oil price (Current US$)
Oil price (Cst 2010 US$)
History Forecast
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industry….Fuel is another actor that will shape the uture as theindustry continues the challenge to reduce uel burn perseat rom an environmental and operating cost perspective.Whilst long-term orecasts suggest that oil prices will rangesomething between $90 and $100 in the coming years,it is expected that there will be occasional spikes driven bysuch things as demand, supply and US dollar value. As parto our orecast process, Airbus adjusts the econometric
orecasts it uses or tra c orecasting to an oil price scena-rio with its subsequent impact on uture economic growth.
Today, manu acturers and airlines are seriously investigatingalternative “drop in” uels to help mitigate the challenges
uel brings in terms o costs, availability and environmentalimpact.
Alternatives to air travel also need to be considered in aircra tdemand orecasts. The high speed train has or a number o years been developed, in many cases with public nances,and has in some cases acted as substitute or air traveland at times as a complement. However, air transport willcontinue to demonstrate its bene ts in providing masstransportation that is e cient and cost e ective comparedto other modes, particularly or developing markets.
Feedstock growthFeedstock selection Biofuel burn
Value chain
Moving from Demonstration flights to Value Chain Projects
Biofuel uplift
Biofueltransportation
to Airport
Feedstock conversion into
Biofuel
Feedstock transportation
Feedstock crop
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Global Market Forecast 44
s u m m a r y r E
s u l t s
New passenger aircra t deliveries by region
Passenger eet development
50-seats 207 313 48
0/85-seats 273 925 284
00-seats 108 266 102
25/210 seats 682 5,451 627
Smallwin-aisle 214 ,933 128
Intermediate twin-aisle 59 911 20
VLA 38 599 22
OTAL ,581 0,398 ,231
50-seats 4,917 642 843
70/85-seats 1,557 1,619 1,843
100-seats 1,455 996 739
125/210 seats 10,232 8,246 9,184
Smalltwin-aisle 2,348 2,318 2,200
Intermediatetwin-aisle 916 787 1,120
VLA 51 508 823
TOTAL 21,476 15,116 16,752
Africa AsiaPacic CIS
Fleet 2010New Aircra t
deliveries2011-2020
New Aircra tdeliveries
2021-2030
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224 169 21 503 1,485
583 311 70 ,016 3,462
406 278 72 503 1,735
4,123 1,375 707 4,465 17,430
807 281 523 632 4,518
364 53 278 222 1,907
250 41 302 79 1,331
,757 2,508 ,973 7,420 31,868
1,485 828 101 2,414
3,462 344 172 3,978
1,735 147 130 2,012
17,430 2,715 818 20,963
4,518 455 57 5,030
1,907 116 52 2,075
1,331 7 6 1,344
31,868 4,612 1,336 37,816
EuropeLatin
America & Caribbean
Middle East North America TOTAL
New Aircra tdeliveries
2011-2030Recycled Remaining in service
with same operator Fleet 2030
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