Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030The implications for airportsAlan PardoeHead of Marketing Communications

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

The Airbus Global Market Forecast

20 year aircraft demand forecastAircraft >19 seats and payload > 10 tons

Traffic forecast modeling 161 distinct traffic flows

Detailed study of network evolution, including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots

Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low cost carriers

Fleet build-ups covering 869 airlines


The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)

Airport constraints not considered

Market research•Deregulation /

liberalisation•Competition•Low cost penetration•Consumer / travel

surveys

Market segmentation•Regional / low cost /

charter•Start-up / Network•Integrators•Traffic flows•Domestic / International

Traffic Forecast•Economics &

Econometrics•Tourism•Fuel price•Yields •Trade / Value of goods

Network development•Aircraft economics•Airline operation

economics•Origin-destination

demand•Demographics•Geopolitics•Network evolution

The GMF is a 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast


1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Air travel remains a growth market

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.8%ICAO

total trafficAirbus

GMF 2011

Air traffichas doubled

every 15 years

Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years


20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft

Market value of $3.5 trillion

1,680 very large aircraft

6,920 twin-aisle aircraft

19,170 single-aisle aircraft

Source: Airbus GMF

~27,800 new aircraft

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)


Stay in serviceRecycled

Replaced

Growth

20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft

A forecast need for 16,422 additional aircraft

Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

Fleet size

Beginning 2011 20300

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1,0633,440

10,499

16,422

31,424

15,002


The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile

Middle East7% Asia

24%

Europe27%North America

27%

Latin America5%

Africa3%

Pacific region4%

CIS3%

Source: Airbus GMF


The Middle East was the fastest growing region in terms of inter-regional ASKs

The Middle East will account for 11% of global air traffic by 2030

ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)

Middle East+229% PRC

+124%

Europe+34%North America

+11%

Latin America+29%

Africa+87% Asia – Pacific

region+34%

CIS+146%

Source: OAG, comparing month of September

India Sub-continent+141%


20-year demand for almost 1,920 new passenger and freight aircraft in the Middle East

Market value of $347 billion

2011 Airbus GMF: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

330 very large aircraft

810 twin-aisle aircraft

780 single-aisle aircraft

~1,920 new aircraft


Stay in serviceRecycled

Replaced

Growth

These strong growth rates result in demand for 1,880 passenger aircraft over the next 20 years

A forecast need for 2,260 additional aircraft in the Middle East region

Airbus 2011 GMF: Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

Fleet size

Begining 2011 20300

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

121257

440

1,442

2,260

818


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201090

100

110

120

130

140

150

Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat

Source: CERA. Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000)

Traffic growth

Jet fuel demand

Traffic+45%

Fuel+3%


Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families

Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand


8300 nm

4500 nm

2500 nmWorld

population:40%

World GDP:17%

World population: 87%World GDP: 64%

The Middle East : Prime opportunity as the “connector” of inter-regional traffic

Source: Global Insight, Airbus

A320 Family

A330 Family

A350 XWBA380 Family


Airbus aircraft families are space-efficient

< 80m wingspan

< 65m wingspan

< 36m wingspan

Airbus product make best use of ramp space

A320A330

A350 XWB

A380


A320 Family

Over 105 million flight hours… 99.7% reliability

Data to end March 2012

8 380 firm orders5 051 deliveries3 329 order backlog


Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy

Building on proven values

2012

Efficiency

Today 2015

Sharklets

A320neo


A320neo is a minimum change aircraft

High commonality with A320 Family15% lower fuel burn and more range

Sharklets

New engines


A320neo offers environmental benefits

• Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to:1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars

• 3,600 tonnes of CO2the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees

• NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6

• 500nm more range or 2 tonnes more payload

• Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV


A320/A320neo compared

A320neo: new engine option

A320neo

81”

More efficient enginesCFM LEAP-1APW1100G

Sharklets

Efficient enginesCFM56-5BIAE V2500

Wing tip fences

68”

A320


A320: more revenue-earning potential

Containers or bulk loading of bags and revenue cargo


A330 Family

An A330 takes-off or lands every 28 seconds of every day

To end March 2012

1 188 firm orders 860 deliveries328 order backlog


A330 continuous development, increasing production

Increased productivity and higher revenues

Optional design weights * Vs 233t MTOW variant

A330-200 with 238t MTOWNow in service330nm extra range or up to 3.4t more payload

A330-300 with 235t MTOWNow in service135nm extra range or up to 1.4t more payload


A330 Family - super efficient twins

Over 750 aircraft sold since the launch of the 787~ four years of production backlog


A330-200F: now open for business

Up to 70t payload, up to 4,000 nm range


AUH

PEK

HKG

HHN

NDJ

NBO

TIP

MXP IST

PVG

SIN

DXB

KBL

BOM

NRT

BKK

ALA

KIX

KUL

JED

ADD

AMS

CGK

SYD

TPE

EBL HND

MNL

MEL

KCH

SHJ

JFK

A330-200F Versatility – In service fleet

Operating in major and emerging markets


Airbus freighter offerings

The A330 P2F will complement the A330-200F as of 2016

2000 2010 2020

A330-200F~65 to 70 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm

A300-600RP2F~47 tonnes / Up to ~2,500nm

A330 P2F~60 tonnes / Up to ~4,000nm


Traffic 5.1% Annual Growth Rate Freight traffic to almost triple in the next 20 years

Fleet 3.2% Annual Growth Rate Freighter fleet to almost double over the period

Freighter GMF 2010 – 2030

New freighter market worth US$ 200bn in the next 20 years

Small Jet Freighters Mid-Size Freighters Large Freighters0

500

1,000

1,500

898

405

429

405

New freighters: 834 aircraftConversions: 1,897 aircraft

594

1,327

810

10t < payload < 30t 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t


Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network

Traffic will more than double – airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

Traffic

x 2.8

Network

x 1.4

Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 = 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]

2010 2030100%

200%

300%


Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary

Complete fleet solutions,matching network requirements today and tomorrow

Seats

Range

Route developerswith point-to-pointrange capabilityA330-200

A350-800

The new referencefor consolidating

trunk routes

A350-1000

Regional efficiencyon long-haul routes

A350-900

A330-300


Efficiency by design

Airframe with advanced materials (53% composite)

Simple, efficient systems

State of the art aerodynamics (M0.85 cruise speed)

Latest generation engines


A350-900 Material Breakdown (%)Including Landing Gear

Al/Al-Li

19%

Titanium14%

Steel6%

Misc.

8%

Composite53%

An Intelligent Airframe by design

A350 XWB. New design, new materials


A350 XWB final assembly has started

MSN 5000 (static test) front and centre fuselage join-up

Toulouse – 5th April 2012


Trent XWB Flight Test Bed

First flight of Trent XWB flight test bed on Feb 18th, 2012

Flight testing well underway


A380

An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes

At end March 2012

253 firm orders

19 customers


Incomparable popularity

“A380 flights are almost always full. In all of my 40 years in the business, I’ve never known an aircraft to be so popular. People are especially keen to fly in the A380”.

Tim ClarkEmirates CEO interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung – 16th December 2011


In 20 years, nearly 90 cities will handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day

2030: 87 Aviation Megacities across the globe

Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF. * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic


Qantas

Additional airline-announced routes for 2012 shown dotted

Los Angeles

Auckland

Johannesburg

Jeddah

Manchester

EmiratesSingapore Airlines

Air FranceLufthansa

The A380 network keeps growingFlying 55 routes to 29 destinations

Montreal

Paris

Melbourne

Singapore

Washington DCNew York

Korean Air

Bangkok

SeoulSan Francisco

MiamiShanghai

Tokyo

China Southern

Dubai

BeijingZurich

Rome

FrankfurtMunichToronto

Hong Kong

Sydney

Malaysia Airlines

GuangzhouHouston

London

Kuala Lumpur

Amsterdam


A380 airport compatibility

• Two aircraft, one gate.

Photos: Fraport website, Sydney Airport website

A380s make better use of valuable ramp space


Airbus today

A full range of market leading products11,569 aircraft sold to 337 customers

A380 Family

A330 Family

A350 Family

A320 Family


© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2011 – 2030 The implications for airports

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