2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL. 2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL METHODOLOGY 217...
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Transcript of 2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL. 2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL METHODOLOGY 217...
2010AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS
OUTLOOK POLL
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
METHODOLOGY
• 217 surveys sent to one representative at each agribusiness
• 58 responses
• No incentive
• 27% return
Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 15% 6% 12%
Optimistic 50% 34% 45%
Neutral 28% 50% 35%
Somewhat negative 7% 5% 7%
Very negative 0% 5% 2%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your overall outlook for your ag business in 2010 compared to 2009?
Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 3% 0% 2%
Optimistic 45% 50% 35%
Neutral 42% 44% 52%
Somewhat negative 7% 0% 7%
Very negative 3% 6% 4%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your overall outlook for the general agriculture economy in 2010 compared to 2009?
Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 0% 0% 0%
Optimistic 31% 44% 35%
Neutral 38% 45% 40%
Somewhat negative 23% 11% 20%
Very negative 8% 0% 5%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your outlook for the overall U.S. economy in 2010 compared to 2009?
Corn(86.4 mil in 2009)
Soybeans(77.5 mil in 2009)
Cotton(9.1 mil in 2009)
10%+ increase 0% 2% 6%
5-10% increase 7% 18% 8%
1-4% increase 41% 41% 20%
Same as 2009 31% 18% 25%
1-4% decrease 18% 18% 33%
5-10% decrease 3% 3% 8%
10%+ decrease 0% 0% 0%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What do you estimate the change in U.S. planted acres will be next year for the following crops?
Under $3/bushel 5%
$3.00-$3.24/bushel 19%
$3.25-$3.49/bushel 16%
$3.50-$3.74/bushel 30%
$3.75-$3.99/bushel 5%
$4/bushel and over 24%
AVERAGE $3.50
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average corn price in 2009 was $3.30 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
Under $8/bushel 5%
$8.00-$8.50/bushel 10%
$8.51-$9.00/bushel 25%
$9.01-$9.50/bushel 15%
$9.51-$10.00/bushel 33%
More than $10/bushel 12%
AVERAGE $9.38
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average soybean price in 2009 was $9.50 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
Under $0.55/pound 22%
$0.55-$0.60/pound 44%
$0.61-$0.70/pound 13%
$0.71-$0.80/pound 15%
More than $0.80/pound 6%
AVERAGE $0.62
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average cotton price in 2009 was $0.54 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
$3.45-$4.00/bushel 5%
$4.01-$5.00/bushel 28%
$5.01-$5.50/bushel 36%
$5.51-$6.00 20%
More than $6.00/bushel 11%
AVERAGE $5.35
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average hard red wheat price in 2009 was $5.20 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
Beef Cow/Calf
(31.7 mil in ‘09)
Fed Beef Cattle
(53.5 mil in ‘09)Dairy Cows
(9.3 mil in ‘09)Sows
(6 mil in ‘09)Fed Hogs
(114 mil in ‘09)
10%+ increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5-10% increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1-4% increase 27% 20% 13% 7% 7%
Same as 2009 27% 33% 8% 20% 27%
1-4% decrease 33% 33% 53% 26% 40%
5-10% decrease 13% 7% 13% 40% 13%
10%+ decrease 0% 7% 13% 7% 13%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What do you estimate the change in the U.S. herd size will be for the following?
$75/cwt 8%
$85/cwt 15%
$86/cwt 23%
$87/cwt 15%
$88/cwt 15%
$89/cwt 7%
$90/cwt 15%
AVERAGE $86.31
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for fed cattle in 2009 was $84 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
$14/lb 23%
$14.10/lb 8%
$14.25/lb 8%
$14.50/lb 8%
$15/lb 46%
$16/lb 7%
AVERAGE $14.68
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for milk in 2009 was $12.40 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
$48/cwt 8%
$50/cwt 8%
$53/cwt 15%
$55/cwt 30%
$57/cwt 8%
$60/cwt 8%
$65/cwt 15%
$70/cwt 8%
AVERAGE $57.00
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for lean hogs in 2009 was $53 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
Crops Livestock Combined
Increase 70% 59% 67%
Same as 2009 18% 29% 21%
Decrease 13% 12% 12%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How do you estimate your ag business’s revenues next year will compare to 2009 revenues?
Crops Livestock Combined
Fewer than 10 72% 94% 80%
10-29 13% 0% 8%
30-49 3% 0% 2%
50-99 6% 0% 4%
100 or more 6% 6% 6%
AVERAGE 28 14 18
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How many new products/services is your ag business going to launch in 2010?
Crops Livestock Combined
Significantly more 8% 0% 5%
More 34% 39% 36%
Same 50% 44% 48%
Less 8% 11% 9%
Significantly less 0% 6% 2%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How does that compare to last year?
Field equipment/accessories 9%
Soil/plant nutrients 5%
Crop protection products 14%
Seed/traits 23%
Farmstead & grain storage structures/water management 5%
Ag credit 2%
Insurance 2%
Animal health/feed 14%
Genetics 2%
Livestock handling equipment/animal ID 2%
Other 22%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
Which of the following is your firm’s major product or service?
Crops Livestock Combined
More than $5 billion 16% 0% 11%
$1 billion to $5 billion 22% 29% 24%
$500 million to $1 billion 8% 6% 7%
$250 million to $500 million 19% 6% 15%
$100 million to $250 million 11% 29% 17%
Less than $100 million 24% 29% 26%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
Approximately what were your ag business unit’s sales in 2009?