WORLD AND ARGENTINE AGRIBUSINESS REFERENCE SCENARIO …inai.org.ar/archivos/notas/INAI 8 june 2017...
Transcript of WORLD AND ARGENTINE AGRIBUSINESS REFERENCE SCENARIO …inai.org.ar/archivos/notas/INAI 8 june 2017...
WORLD AND ARGENTINE AGRIBUSINESS REFERENCE SCENARIO TO 2025
World Outlook Conference
Nicolás Jorge8 june 2017
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
Cordoba Grain Exchange
Arg. Oil Industry Chamber (CIARA)
Chamber of Grains Exporters (CEC)
Arg. Wheat Flour Millers Association (FAIM)
Federation of Country Elevators Association
INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURE
Created in 1999
To achieve the best possible outcomes
for Argentina in the international
negotiations forums, by strengthening
its capabilities to negotiate.
To improve the information, capacity and depth of analysis of the public and
agribusiness sectors.
To strengthen the Argentine negotiation capability in order to improve the
integration to world trade.
To generate a close, intelligent and transparent communication between the
public sector and the agribusiness sector.
Our Work. Analysis of:
• International agricultural negotiations.
• Domestic agricultural policies of other countries and how they influence our
trade.
• Argentine domestic policies that affect integration to world trade.
INAI Objectives
Reports
• Newsletter (160 issues)
• ERAMA X
• Countries and products
• Special Reports
Events and training
• Conferences
• Round tables
• Courses
Tools
• PEATSim-Ar
• MEPIC
• General Equilibrium Model
• Trade indicators
Our work
inai.org.ar
PEATSim-Ar
● Partial equilibrium model
● GAMS
● Based on ERS - Penn State University (2008)
● Almost completely rewritten
Database
Drivers
• IMF
•USDA
Prices
•Ministry of Agro-industry
• FAO
•World Bank
Supply and demand
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
•Ministry of Agro-Industry
•USDA
Other
• Yields assumptions
• Policies
• Elasticities
Am
eri
ca • Argentina
• Brazil
• Paraguay
• Uruguay
• Bolivia
• Chile
• Colombia
• Peru
• Venezuela
• Canada
• Mexico
• USA
• Rest of America
Afr
ica • Algeria
• Egypt
• Rest of Africa
Asi
a • China
• India
• Japan
• South Korea
• Malaysia
• Indonesia
• Singapore
• Vietnam
• R. Southeast Asia
• R. M. East
• R. Asia
Eu
rop
e • European Union
• Russia
• Ukraine
• Rest of Europe Oce
an
ia • Australia
• New Zealand
• Rest of the world
Regions
● Prices
● Planted area
● Harvested area
● Yields
● Production
● Exports
● Imports
● Consumption
● Food
● Feed
● Crush
● Other
● Stocks
Variables
Supply categories
• Crops
• Oils / Meals
• Meats
• Dairy
• Biofuels
Demand categories
• Food
• Feed
• Crush
• Biofuels
• Stocks
• Other uses
Cereals Oilseeds Oilseed oil Oilseed Meal
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
Other c. grains
Soybean
Sunflower seed
Rapeseed
Groundnut
Cotton seed
Palm kernel
Soybean oil
Sunflower oil
Rapeseed oil
Groundnut oil
Cotton seed oil
Palm oil
Palm kernel oil
Soybean meal
Sunflower meal
Rapeseed meal
Groundnut meal
Cotton seed meal
Palm kernel meal
Other Crops Meats and Milk Dairy Biofuels
Cotton
Sugar
Beef and veal
Pork meat
Poultry
Raw Milk
Fluid milk
Butter
Cheese
Skimmed milk p.
Whole milk p.
Other dairy
Biodiesel
Bioethanol
DDGs
Policies
● Import Tariffs
● Tariff rate quotas
● Target prices
● Intervention prices
● Domestic support
● Export subsidies
● Export taxes
● Other exports restrictions
Future work
● Regional outputs within Argentina
● Detailed information on costs
● Linking with other outlooks for world data
● Sensitivity analysis / Montecarlo simulations
WORLD AND ARGENTINE AGRIBUSINESS REFERENCE SCENARIO TO 2025
(ERAMA 2025)
AGRICULTURAL LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ARGENTINA
Simulation(PeatSIM-Ar)
Validation
Assumptions
Drivers
New set of policies
● Removal of restrictions in the foreign exchange market
● Elimination of export restrictions
● Reduction in export taxes
Data from OECD and Agrimonitor-IADB.
Producer support estimate(%PSE) Three year average (2010-12)
61%
54%49% 49%
45%
24%19% 19% 18% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 11%
9% 8%5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%
-23%
Results 2025
65.578.8
108.8
115.5
140.5
00/01 05/06 15/16ERAMA24/25
ERAMA25/26
6.2%
29.1%
Millions tons
Results 2025
65.578.8
108.8
115.5
140.5
00/01 05/06 15/16ERAMA24/25
ERAMA25/26
6.2%
29.1%
Millions tons
122Proj.
16/17
10,300 15,206
30,00049,332
56,000 60,563
0,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Source: ERAMA 2025/26. INAI Foundation
Results 2025 000 tons
Grain & Oilseeds. Production
Thousands of tons
2010/11 2015/16 2025/26 Δ 10 years Δ annual
Grains 48 202 49 350 75 021 52,0% 3,5%
Rice 1 720 1 400 1 845 31,8% 2,4%
Wheat 15 781 10 300 15 316 48,7% 2,9%
Corn 24 553 30 000 49 599 65,3% 4,0%
Barley 2 535 4 250 3 232 -24,0% -1,1%
Sorghum 3 613 3 400 5 029 47,9% 4,3%
Oilseeds 53 633 59 429 65 439 10,1% 1,2%
Soy 49 200 56 000 60 160 7,4% 1,0%
Sunflower 3 400 2 500 3 817 52,7% 2,6%
Peanut 1 033 929 1 462 57,4% 3,6%
Total 101 836 108 779 140 459 29,1% 2,3%
Source: ERAMA 2025/26. INAI Foundation
Results 2025
Grain & Oilseeds. Planted area
Thousands of hectares
2010/11 2015/16 2025/26 Δ 10 years Δ annual
Cereals 10 305 9 715 13 331 37,2% 2,3%
Rice 258 215 241 12,3% 0,9%
Wheat 4 700 3 600 4 905 36,3% 2,1%
Corn 3 800 3 850 6 136 59,4% 3,2%
Barley 625 1 200 921 -23,3% -1,4%
Sorghum 922 850 1 128 32,7% 3,1%
Oilseeds 20 537 21 656 22 164 2,3% 0,2%
Soy 18 500 20 100 19 965 -0,7% 0,1%
Sunflower 1 730 1 220 1 794 47,1% 2,1%
Peanut 307 336 404 20,1% 1,7%
Total 30 843 31 371 35 495 13,1% 1,0%
Source: ERAMA 2025/26. INAI Foundation
Results 2025
Soybean export tax
35%
30%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan
-15
May-1
5
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May-1
6
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May-1
7
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May-1
8
Sep
-18
Jan
-19
May-1
9
Sep
-19
Jan
-20
May-2
0
Sep
-20
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange with data from Márgenes Agropecuarios
March - May ave. 15/16 16/17 17/18 16 vs 15 17 vs 16
Diesel kg x litre 11.8 7.0 6.7 -41% -4%
Herbicide kg x litre 81.7 56.7 37.7 -31% -34%
DAP 100 kg x tn 58.3 38.0 32.3 -35% -15%
Urea 100 kg x tn 46.3 25.7 26.3 -45% 3%
Input / Output
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Diesel Herbicide Diammoniumphosphate
Urea
15/16 16/17 17/18
Key issues
• Logistic competitiveness is mainly explained by short distance to ports.
• However, transport costs are increasing.
• Increase in production in the north-west
• Lack of investment in roads
• 85% transported by truck
• There are new investment programs.
Logistic and Infrastructure
• Opening new markets.
• Intensifying negotiations agenda.
• Expanding and deepening MCS Trade Agreements.World markets
• Poor farm returns caused a decline in technology levels.
• Due to recent positive incentives, the trend in technology adoption is already displaying an improvement.
Technology (RETAA)
Conference on Summer CropsBuenos Aires Grain Exchange
IV Round Table on Trade Policy AnalysisINAI Foundation
ERAMA 2026
THANK YOU!
Contact UsINAI Foundation
Street: Corrientes 127 4º
www.inai.org.ar
+5411 43121092
@Fundacion_INAI
Fundación INAI