192015

2 12 15

1957 201538

27 9=350mm27 9

[mm/day]

Gumbel

40

n

95%

5000

Gumbel 200 3 322.0 mmGumbel n 5000 Gumbel

200 3200 3

( - ) / 100 [%]Gumbel 200 3

Gumbel 200 3

fU(i)(u) (i,n-i+1) Un i fU (u)

95% 95.5

100

200

95% :94.4%

24 [mm]

24 [mm]

24 [mm]

95% 94.3

100

200

95% 91.2

24 [mm]

24 [mm]

(4 )

24 [mm]

24Gumbel

Gumbel 95% MCMCGumbel

GumbelGumbel

Gumbel 95%

100 2495%

157.7mm224.6mm

95%198.8mm95%294.4mm

24 [mm]

4

Gumbel

Gumbel95%

95%

(4 ) 100 2495%

157.7mm224.6mm

95%280.7mm95%437.9mm

Gumbel

Gumbel95%

95%

24Gumbel

Gumbel 95% MCMCGumbel

GumbelGumbel

Gumbel 95%

24 [mm]

(Multi Parameter Phased Array Radar)

mm/h(MP-PAWR@ ) (10 ) (20 )

20:00 4020:00 30

:: (VIL)

::

50mm/h

MP-

MP- ( 60 )

X MP39 6

X MP ( 60 )

2018

2 7

9% 26%13% 41%

28

29

Microcystis aeruginosa

N

30

(rmax):0.2 , 1.0 , 1.8 [ /day]( Microcystis 0.2 1.8 [/day])

16,450m2 26,940m2 36,400m21.23m 1.39m 1.82m

31

19 10 10 )

19 10 13 )

N

32

10/10

10/13162.5

4.6 4.6 13.422.9

74.3

0.49m3/s

2.1 ( /day)

0.2m3/s( )

0.49m3/s

1.8 ( /day)

0.1m3/s( )

0.59m3/s

2.2 ( /day)

98

80

82

33

34

T-N:2.20mg/L T-P:0.099mg/L3)

1) 20172) 2013 20183) http://www1.river.go.jp/cgi-bin/SrchWquaData.exe?ID=403041283308170&KIND=1&PAGE=04) 20195) 2019

T-N:2.20mg/L T-P:0.099mg/L3)

7m3/s 1)3

5m3/s 1)

Phase1

Phase2

( )8

( )25

Phase3

35

8m/s

36

2 2 ,p.15,2018.

( )

37

2019/04/03

1928 37 1 1

38

2018/12/10https://www.kyoto-np.co.jp/top/article/20181210000157

39

40

1982520m ( ) 61m

41

National Geographic

20032022

The Telegraph Moses project to secure future of Venice

(2018/10/29)