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1Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
EUROSTAT regional population projections
Giampaolo LANZIERIEurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics
2Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Some basic concepts
• The changes in population can be ascribed to live births, deaths and migration.
• The difference between live births and deaths is the natural change.
• At regional level, migration can be split in international and interregional (net) migration.
P(t) + B(t) – D(t) + INM(t) + IRM(t) = P(t+1)
3Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
A glance at the recent past…
4Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
5Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
6Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
7Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Recent demographic trends
• There is a clear divide in terms of population growth: in the regions of North-east of the EU the population is decreasing.
• Basically, this is due to a negative natural change.
• In some of these regions, emigration has further contributed to the population decline.
• On the opposite, in some Central and Southern European regions, immigration has compensated the natural decline.
8Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
What about the age structure?
• Basic indicators:– Proportion of defined age classes on the total
population. Ex.: (65+ years old)/(total population)– Old age dependency ratio:
(65+ years old)/(15-64 years old)– Young age dependency ratio:
(0-14 years old)/(15-64 years old)
9Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Dependency ratios
10Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…and a look at the future…
11Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Caveat
• The EUROSTAT population projections are not forecasts.
• They show possible demographic developments based upon assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration (what-if scenario).
• The Eurostat scenario is relying mainly on observed trends.
12Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
EUROPOP2004• In 2005, Eurostat has released population
projections at national level covering the EU27 Member States.
• In 2006, the regional detail until 2031 has been added for those countries that provided the necessary data: in total, 17 out of 19 Member States with NUTS2 level, making 197 regions.
• The regional projections are consistent with the projections at national level.
13Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
EU population is likely to decline...Observed and projected total EU27 population by variant
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Mill
ion
s
Time limit for regional projections
Observationperiod
Projectionsperiod
14Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…like in most of the EU regions...Number of declining regions
- Baseline variant of EUROPOP2004 regional level -
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Moving base (previous year) Fixed base (2004)
15Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
16Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level
- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
EU27
17Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level
- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
EU27 Min national level Max national level
18Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level
- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
EU27 Min national level Max national level Min regional level Max regional level
19Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
…to differing degrees
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
SE
FI
SK
RO
PT
PL
AT
NL
HU
IT
ES
GR
IE
DE
CZ
BG
BE
20Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Shares of population aged 65+
21Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Shares of population aged 0-14
22Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Old age dependency ratios
23Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
The drivers of change
24Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
The drivers of change
25Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
The drivers of change
decline due onlyto net migration
decline due moreto net migration
decline due moreto natural change
decline due onlyto natural change
growth due onlyto net migration
growth due moreto natural change
growth due moreto net migration
growth due onlyto natural change
26Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
27Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Growing and declining
decline due onlyto net migration
decline due moreto net migration
decline due moreto natural change
decline due onlyto natural change
growth due onlyto net migration
growth due moreto natural change
growth due moreto net migration
growth due onlyto natural change
28Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Main messages• According to the results of this set of
regional projections (Trend scenario):– Nearly half of the EU regions are likely to
have a population size in 2031 smaller than in 2004; more than 2/3 could have started a descending trend
– All are expected to age– The ageing will take place to differing
degrees and timing across EU regions– Migration is projected to be the main driver of
the regional population growth
29Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Further reading and data• Statistics in Focus nn/2007 ”Long-term population
projections at regional level” (pre-print available)• Statistics in Focus 3/2006 ”Long-term population
projections at national level”• “Regions: Statistical yearbook”, 2006 edition• “Population Statistics”, 2006 edition• Statistics in Focus 16/2006 ”Population in Europe
2005: first results”• Eurostat Working Papers and Studies
“Demographic Outlook – National reports on the demographic developments in 2005”
• Eurostat web site: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
30Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007
Thanks for
your attention
For any further information please contact: [email protected]