1Q 2013 Earnings Presentation
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Transcript of 1Q 2013 Earnings Presentation
DISCLAIMER
ESPEED TRANSACTION DETAILS
3
SELECT 1Q2013 RESULTS COMPARED TO 1Q2012
4
1Q2013 GLOBAL REVENUE BREAKDOWN
5
New York Paris
Hong
Kong London
Singapore
EMEA
40.4%
Americas
48.7%
APAC10.9%
1Q2013 Revenues
1Q2013 PRODUCT DIVERSITY
6
Rates 32.2%
Credit 15.4%
Foreign exchange 13.2%
Equities and other asset classes
8.9%
Real estate brokerage
16.6%
Real estate management
services 8.7%
Other revenues, interest income &
related parties 3.5%
Market data & software solutions
1.5%
1Q2013 SEGMENT DATA
7
1Q2013 Revenues 1Q2013 Revenues Pre-tax
Earnings Pre-tax Margin
Financial $323.8 $64.1 19.8%
Real Estate $114.2 $2.3 2.0%
Corporate $11.7 ($21.2) NMF
In USD millions
Financial Services72.0%
Real Estate Services25.4%
Corporate2.6%
1Q VOLATILITY REMAINED LOW
8
5 Year Average = .51
2H08
AIG/Lehman/etc.
August ‟11
US Debt Downgrade
May „10
Flash Crash
Sept „12
QE 3 Announced
QUANTITATIVE EASING = CURRENT HEADWIND AND FUTURE TAILWIND
9
(2008 = 100) Central Banks Balance Sheet Growth, 2008 - Present
BUSINESS OVERVIEW: RATES
10
Rates32.2%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
FY 2011 FY 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2013
$578.5 $532.4
$146.9 $145.0
(US
D m
illio
ns)
Interest Rate Derivatives
US Treasuries
Global Government Bonds
Agencies
Interest Rate Futures
Dollar Derivatives
Repurchase Agreements
Non-Deliverable Swaps
Interest rate Swaps & Options
Rates Revenue Growth
% of 1Q2013 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products
Global sovereign and corporate debt issuance cause long-term tailwinds in our Rates business
Near-term headwinds due to quantitative easing
Low interest rates in most major economies holding down volumes
Reduced front office headcount and consolidated desks to improve long term profitability in this asset class but lowered revenues short-term
Drivers
Fed UST
Primary Dealer Volume
BGC Overall Rates Revenue
CME Rates Volume
Eurex Rates Volume
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
BGC RATES REVENUES REFLECT INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
11
24%
(1%)
1%
(4%)
BGC Fully Electronic
Rates Revenue
5%
Credit
15.4%
BUSINESS OVERVIEW: CREDIT
12
Credit Derivatives
Asset-Backed Securities
Convertibles
Corporate Bonds
High yield Bonds
Emerging Market Bonds
Credit Revenue Growth
% of 1Q2013 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products
Industry volumes generally lower
Large bank corporate bond trading activity impacted due in part to Basel 3 capital requirements
Reduced front office headcount and consolidated desks to improve long term profitability in this asset class but lowered revenues short-term
Drivers
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
FY 2011 FY 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2013
$315.0 $284.6
$84.4 $69.1
(US
D m
illio
ns)
BGC Total Credit
Revenue
TRACE All Bond Dollar Volumes
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
BGC‟S CREDIT DESKS IMPACTED BY WEAKER MARKET TRENDS
13
1%
Creditex Revenue (25%)
1Q2013 YoY Growth
Fed Corporate Bond Volume (2%)
(18%)
GFI Fixed Income Revenue (24%)
BUSINESS OVERVIEW: FOREIGN EXCHANGE
14
Foreign Exchange Revenue Growth
% of 1Q2013 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products
BGC‟s fully electronic FX revenues have continued to grow faster than overall FX revenues, driven by both derivatives and spot
Low interest rates made carry trade strategies less attractive
Drivers
FX
13.2%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
FY 2011 FY 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2013
$218.4 $208.0
$58.7 $59.3
(US
D m
illio
ns)
1.1%
In virtually all currency pairs
Options
Exotics
Spot
Forwards
Non-deliverable forwards
BGC‟S FULLY ELECTRONIC FX REVENUES OUTPERFORMS MARKET
15
1Q2013 YoY Growth
1% 1%
12%
16%
25%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
(Grow
th)
CME FX Futures
Volumes
EBS FX
Average Daily Volumes
BGC’s Fully Electronic
FX Volume
Reuters Spot
FX Volumes BGC Total FX Revenue
BGC’s Fully Electronic
FX Revenue
BUSINESS OVERVIEW: EQUITIES & OTHER ASSET CLASSES
16
Equity Derivatives
Cash Equities
Index Futures
Commodities
Energy Derivatives
Other Derivatives and Futures
Equities & Other Asset Classes Revenue Growth
% of 1Q2013 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products
Lower global equity cash & derivatives volumes industry-wide
Negatively impacted by the French & Italian Financial Transaction Taxes
Reduced front office headcount and consolidated desks to improve long term profitability in this asset class but lowered revenues short-term
Drivers
Equities
& Other
8.9%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
FY 2011 FY 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2013
$214.5
$156.1
$43.8$40.0
(US
D m
illi
on
s)
“EQUITIES AND OTHER”: REFLECTS LOWER INDUSTRY VOLUMES
17
1Q2013 YoY Change
-6%
-9% -9%
-12%
-18%
-20%
-10%
0%Eurex Equity
DerivativeVolume
OCC Equity
OptionVolume
BGC Equity &
Other AssetClasses
Revenues
GFI Equity
Revenues
Deutsche
Borse's XetraVolume
BUSINESS OVERVIEW: REAL ESTATE SERVICES
18
Leasing Advisory
Global Corporate Services
Retail Services
Property & Facilities Management
Consulting
Program and Project Management
Industrial Services
Valuation
Property Sales
Capital Markets (Includes: Debt & Equity Raising, Mortgage
) Real Estate Services Revenue
% of 1Q2013 Total Distributable Earnings Revenue Example of Products
Average rents and vacancies improve YoY
Real Capital Analytics commercial sales volumes up 35% YoY
Low interest rates make Real Estate a more attractive investment class
CoStar Value Weighted Composite Index up 5.1% YoY
1Q seasonally slowest
Drivers
Mangament
Services
8.7%
Real Estate
Brokerage
16.6%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
Q1 2012 Q1 2013
43.8
$74.8
$3.9
$39.3
Real Estate
Brokerage Rev
(Purple)
Management
Services
(Grey)
$47.7 (total)
$114.1(total)
REAL ESTATE MARKET IMPROVING NATIONALLY
19
US Office & Industrial Market Asking Rent & Vacancy
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
$22.00
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13
Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy Rate (%)
Asking Rent and Vacancy
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
$4.50
$4.75
$5.00
$5.25
$5.50
$5.75
4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13
Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy Rate (%)
Asking Rent and VacancyAsking Rent & Vacancy (Office)
Asking Rent & Vacancy (Industrial)
QUARTERLY SALES MARKET TRENDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
20
Real Capital Analytics commercial sales volumes up 35% YoY
Cap rates remain well above 10-year UST yields.
Average Cap Rates by Sector
Transaction Volume
U.S. Composite Indices: Equal– and Value-Weighted Data
Through Feb 2013
Value-Weighted up 5.1% YoY
Equal-Weighted up 6.0% YoY
BGC‟S FRONT OFFICE OVERVIEW
21
Front Office Productivity (in thousands) Front Office Headcount
1,761 1,757 1,735 1,721 1,641
409854 840 830 894
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013Real Estate Financial Brokerage
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2011 2012 1Q2012 1Q2013
$776
$639
$180 $154
($ t
ho
usa
nd
s)
(Fro
nt O
ffic
e E
mplo
yees)
2,170
2,611 2,551 2,575
2,535 (total)
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
$38.3$36.5
$35.8
$33.3
$39.6
($ m
illi
on
s)
$5
$10
$15
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013
$13.5$13.4
$11.6
$9.7
$13.2
($ t
rill
ion
s)BGC‟S FULLY ELECTRONIC BROKERAGE METRICS
22
Fully Electronic Brokerage Notional Volumes (in trillions)
•
•
Fully Electronic Revenues (in millions)*
23
BGC‟S TECHNOLOGY-BASED BUSINESSES HAVE HIGHER
MARGINS
Percentage of fully electronic from each of ≈105 e-brokered desks
range from <10% to 100%
Profit margins = highest for US Treasuries, spot FX, Market Data and
Software Solutions
Profit margins for retained electronic products vary, though are
generally higher than for voice-brokered products
Over time, we believe margins for newer e-brokered products
should expand as their markets mature
• “
*BGC is selling only its on-the-run, benchmark 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year fully electronic trading platform for U.S.
Treasury Notes and Bonds. For the purposes of this analysis, the assets being sold to NASDAQ OMX are referred to as
“eSpeed.”
Voice/Hybrid 85.7%
RetainedTech***
7.0%
eSpeed7.3%
24
TECHNOLOGY BASED BREAKDOWN 1Q2013
**Other Technology Revenues = fully electronic brokerage, fees from related parties related to fully electronic trading, market data, and software solutions.
*** Retained Tech remains with BGC
Technology-Based Products** = 14.3% of Total
Financial Services Revenues
*BGC is selling only its on-the-run, benchmark 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year fully electronic trading platform for U.S.
Treasury Notes and Bonds. For the purposes of this analysis, the assets being sold to NASDAQ OMX are referred to as
“eSpeed.”
$63.6$70.2
$61.3
$34.2
$34.1
$32.2
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
$42.3
$65.4$71.5
$6.0
$6.0
$6.2
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
$16.5 $15.8
$8.8$7.8
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
1Q2012 1Q2013
$19.0$21.0
$1.4
$1.7
1Q2012 1Q2013
NEWER TECH BASED PRODUCTS SHOW FASTER GROWTH
11%
25
(11%)
(7%)
30%
-2%
-3%
Note: eSpeed figures exclude revenues included in corporate items.
BGC is selling only its on-the-run, benchmark 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year fully electronic trading platform for U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds
2010-2012
CAGR
YoY Change
$25.3
$20.4
$97.9
$104.3
$93.6
18%
27%
11%
1%
$23.6
YoY Change
(4%)
$22.7
2010-2012
CAGR
-2%
$48.3
$71.4 $77.7
26
REVENUE AND PROFIT BY EXECUTION METHOD
Revenues related to
fully electronic
trading* = 10.7% of
total DE revenues
in 1Q2011 vs. 9.0%
in 1Q2010
In $MM
Note: For all periods, “Technology Based” revenues includes fully electronic trading in the “total brokerage revenues” GAAP income statement line
item, the portion of “fees from related parties” line item related to fully electronic trading, all “market data” revenues , and all “software solutions”
revenues. Real Estate revenues are included in Voice/Hybrid.
Technology
- Based
Voice /
Hybrid
Corporate /
Other Total
Technology
- Based
Voice /
Hybrid
Corporate /
Other Total
Revenue $46 $392 $12 $450 $46 $347 $11 $404
Pre-Tax DE $25 $41 ($21) $45 $24 $53 ($19) $58
Pre-tax DE Margin 54% 10% NMF 10% 53% 15% NMF 14%
Technology
- Based
Voice /
Hybrid
Corporate /
Other Total
Technology
- Based
Voice /
Hybrid
Corporate /
Other Total
Revenue $171 $1,532 $48 $1,751 $176 $1,251 $50 $1,476
Pre-Tax DE $85 $173 ($62) $196 $90 $208 ($61) $237
Pre-tax DE Margin 50% 11% NMF 11% 51% 17% NMF 16%
FY2012
Q1 2013
FY2011
Q1 2012
LARGE BANKS AND IDBS EXPECTED TO GROW ELECTRONIC TRADING
INDUSTRY-WIDE
2
7
Estimates per McKinsey, Oliver Wyman, Greyspark, JP Morgan
27
70
55 - 65
40 - 50 40
30
75 80
65 - 75
60 60
50
85
CDS Index FX Spot European Govt Bonds
Precious Metals
U.S. Treasuries Cash Equities
2012
2015 estimate
BGC PARTNERS COMPENSATION RATIO
28
$713.3 $749.8 $793.5$1,036.8
$277.6
60.9%
56.2% 53.8%
59.2% 61.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q2013
($ m
illio
ns)
Compensation and Employee Benefits Compensation and Employee Benefits as % of Total Revenue
NON-COMPENSATION EXPENSES & PRE-TAX MARGIN
29
9.8%13.8%
16.1%11.2% 10.0%
29.2% 30.0% 30.2% 29.6%28.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Pre-tax distributable earnings as % of Total Revenue Non-comp Expenses as a % of Total Revenue
FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012
1Q2013
ADJUSTED EBITDA
30
BGC Partners, Inc
Reconciliation of GAAP Income to Adjusted EBITDA
(and Comparison to Pre-Tax Distributable Earnings, in $000s)
Q1 2013 Q1 2012 FY 2012 FY 2011
Income from operations before income taxes 13,697$ 18,912$ 55,737$ 54,359$
Add back:
Employee loan amortization 9,459 6,953 35,596 31,785
Interest expense 9,700 7,558 34,885 24,606
Fixed asset depreciation and intangible asset amortization 12,569 12,515 50,985 49,281
Impairment of fixed assets 413 773 1,255 785
Exchangeability charges (1) 10,584 25,930 127,112 108,341
Losses on equity investments 3,288 2,456 11,775 6,605
Adjusted EBITDA 59,710$ 75,097$ 317,345$ 275,762$
Pre-tax distributable earnings 45,119$ 58,239$ 196,015$ 236,952$
(1) Represents non-cash, non-economic, and non-dilutive charges relating to grants of exchangeability to limited partnership units.
118
108
122
113
119
105
97
107
122
115 115
93
$122
$112
$131
$107
$129 $129
$114
$134 $132
$112 $112
$84
50
75
100
125
150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 Revenue
2011 Revenue
116120 120
100
118
10499
93
112108
100
80
$127
$107 $102
$108
50
75
100
125
150
175
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Chart Title
2012 Revenue
2013 Revenue
MONTHLY REVENUE EXCLUDING REAL ESTATE SERVICES ($MM)
31
BG
C M
on
thly
Dis
trib
uta
ble
Earn
ing
s
Re
ve
nu
es
($
MM
)
April down about
1% per day, up
9% overall
Revenue for August
2010 included $11.6M in
“other revenues” as the
result of a favorable
arbitration ruling
pertaining to Refco
Securities.
BGC‟S ECONOMIC OWNERSHIP AS OF 3/31/13
32
Public
38%
Cantor
23%
Employees,
Executives, & Directors
39%
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank
($ in millions) 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 SUM
Actual Revenues $144.1 $141.1 $148.7 $114.2 $548.0
Actual YoY Revenue Change NA NA $91.6 $66.3 NA
Actual YoY % Change NA NA 160% 139% NA
Adjusted Revenues $132.1 $135.9 $144.2 $112.4 $524.5
Adjusted YoY Revenue Change NA NA $87.1 $64.5 NA
Adjusted YoY % Change NA NA 152% 135% NA
Note: Grubb & Ellis Acquisition closed April 13, 2012.
NGKF REVENUE ANALYSIS
33
AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES
34
Average
1Q2013 1Q2012 April 2013 April 2012
US Dollar 1 1 1 1
British Pound 1.554 1.571 1.530 1.600
Euro 1.321 1.311 1.301 1.317
Hong Kong Dollar 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129
Singapore Dollar 0.808 0.791 0.808 0.799
Japanese Yen* 92.210 79.270 97.780 81.430
* Inverted
RECENT FINANCIAL INDUSTRY RECOGNITION
35
RECENT NGKF INDUSTRY RECOGNITION
36
DISCLAIMER