1AC Mexico Investment

8/9/2019 1AC Mexico Investment

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Plan

Plan: The United States federal government shouldincrease economic engagement toward Mexico through a

North American Investment Fund.


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A! " Illegal Immigration

#es$ite recent $olic% changes& illegal immigration isincreasing " arrest rates $rove

#inan '((Stephen, Arrest numbers signal 9 percent jump in illegalimmigration in 2012, 1/29,http://wwwwashingtontimescom/news/201!/jan/29/arrests"signal"9"percent"

jump"illegal"immigration/#page$all, %&'

)ven as)resi*ent *+ama travelsto +as egas -ues*a. to call for legali,ingillegal immigrants& the latest num+ersrom the S or*er )atrol suggestthatthe -owacross the nations southwest bor*erum$ed +% / $ercent last %ear3The0order Patrol made (12&34( arrestsalong the S"&e4ico bor*er in 5scal .ear 2012,u$ from (54&144 in 56, accor*ing to 5gures obtaine* b. the Associate* )ress an*con5rme* b. -he 6ashington -imes or*er )atrol o7cials estimate that a$$rehensions are agood $rox% for illegal crossings& so when the num+ers go u$& it

means that the -ow of illegal immigrants is going u$ as well3+ast .earsincrease mar8s a reersal Apprehensions pea8e* in 200 at 12 million an* ha* been stea*il. *roppingeer. .ear since as 5rst )resi*ent ;eorge 6 ush an* then &r


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Tide of illegal immigration ma9es terrorism inevita+leTing 2N


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aliens $rovides a cover and a culture in which terrorists can hide&

and a relia+le means of entr% An* as we 8now rom the case o the 200M &a*ri* trainbombings, man. =slamist terrorists are Iuent in Spanish or*er )atrol apprehension 5gures show that

among the *TMs a$$rehended in 5667 and 5661 were hundreds of$ersons from (1 s$ecial interest; countries, almost all o which are &uslim

-hese countries inclu*e Aghanistan, Rg.pt, =ran, =raF, +ebanon, Sau*i Arabia, Somalia, Su*an, S.ria, an*

emenC the number"one countr. in the group is )a8istan Again, these are just the apprehensions: or eer.alien apprehen*e* entering the S illegall., an estimate* ! to 9 others succee*

Terrorism is li9el% " failure to secure +orders meansterrorists will smuggle nuclear wea$ons into the US


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terrorists can now discover the location of @ssile materials and $lanattac9s on nuclear facilities with much greater ease &eanwhile, the. are alsoable to utiliGe tools li8e the internet to *isseminate an* access inormation concerning the construction o

nuclear *eices (!B As such, glo+ali,ation has allowed terrorist grou$sli8e A="Tae*a to transform themselves into $owerful non8state actors withs$eciali,ed technological 9nowledge that can su+vert the goals of

$owerful states (!K3&oreoer, glo+ali,ation ena+les terrorist grou$s totrans$ort nuclear wea$ons more stealthil%rom their places o origin to inten*e*targets As a result o globaliGation an* commercial liberaliGation, massie amounts o international tra*e

an* commerce occur eer.*a. Diven the sheer volume of goods entering allstates& the chance of detecting illicit commodities is lower (!D In thecase of the Unite* States, as o late 200D there were (4 entr% $oints into thecountr%& which ma9es the volume of goods entering the Unite* States thatmuch more diEcult to detect andthoroughl. examine (!9 -his is signi5cantbecause, with respect to nuclear materials, onl% small amounts of easil% conceala+le@ssile material are needed to create dangerous devices. Accor*ingl.,ph.sical *etection is ma*e more *i7cult an* smuggling nuclear material in large containers becomesmore practicable (M0 Rlectronic *etection instruments, while in *eelopment an* being teste* in limite*

cases, hae not .et been ull. *eplo.e* (M1 &eanwhile, large amounts of illegal*rugs an*

immigrants enter even the most highl% industriali,ed countriesli8e thenite* States eer. .ear, testif%ing to the ease with which grou$s couldsim$l% smuggle nuclear materials across $orous state +orders (M2These develo$ments render the threat of nuclear terrorism a farmore serious $olic% issuethan preiousl. ac8nowle*ge*, as the% a?ord terroristorgani,ations greater $ower and easier means to accom$lish theirnuclear am+itions to destro% western societies (M! &eanwhile, globaliGationmeans that new threats cannot be containe* an* controlle* within one State an* will conseFuentl.reFuire international solutions (MM

That causes great $ower nuclear warA%son 6&)roessor o Strategic Stu*ies an* Eirector o the %entre or

Strategic Stu*ies: Pew Uealan* at the ictoria niersit. o 6ellington, 2010('obert, Ater a -errorist Puclear Attac8: Rnisaging %atal.tic RJects,Stu*ies in %onIict V -errorism, olume !!, =ssue K, ?ul., Aailable


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*uring the earl. %ol* 6ar .ears to new state possessors o small nuclear arsenals who were seen asraising the ris8s o a catal.tic nuclear war between the superpowers starte* b. thir* parties -heseris8s were consi*ere* in the late 190s an* earl. 19B0s as concerns grew about nuclear prolieration,the so"calle* nW1 problem =t ma. reFuire a consi*erable amount o imagination to *epict an especiall.plausible situation where an act o nuclear terrorism coul* lea* to such a massie inter"state nuclearwar @or e4ample, in the eent o a terrorist nuclear attac8 on the nite* States, it might well bewon*ere* just how 'ussia an*/or %hina coul* plausibl. be brought into the picture, not least becausethe. seem unli8el. to be 5ngere* as the most obious state sponsors or encouragers o terrorist

groups -he. woul* seem ar too responsible to be inole* in supporting that sort o terrorist behaiorthat coul* just as easil. threaten them as well Some $ossi+ilities& however remote &do suggest themselves @or e4ample, how might the Unite* States react if itwas thought or discovered that the @ssile material used in the actof nuclear terrorism had come from ussian stoc8s,M0 and if for somereason Moscow denied an% res$onsi+ilit% for nuclear laxit%# -hecorrect attribution o that nuclear material to a particular countr. might not be a case o science 5ctiongien the obseration b. &ichael &a. et al that while the *ebris resulting rom a nuclear e4plosion

woul* be sprea* oer a wi*e area in tin. ragments, its radioactivit% ma9es itdetecta+le& identi@a+le and collecta+le& and a wealth ofinformation can +e o+tained from its anal%sis: the eEcienc% of theex$losion& the materials used and& most important X some indication ofwhere the nuclear material came fromM1 Alternatiel., if the act of

nuclear terrorism came as a com$lete sur$rise& and AmericanoEcials refused to +elieve that a terrorist grou$ was ull.res$onsi+le(or responsible at all sus$icion would shift immediatel% tostate $ossessors 'uling out 6estern all. countries li8e the nite* Ying*om an* @rance, an*probabl. =srael an* =n*ia as well, authoritiesin 6ashington would +e left with aver% short listconsisting o Porth Yorea, perhaps =ran i its program continues, an* possibl.)a8istan ut at what stage woul* 'ussia an* %hina be *e5nitel. rule* out in this high sta8es game o

nuclear %lue*o# =n particular, if the acto nuclear terrorism occurred against a+ac9dro$ of existing tension in6ashingtons relations with ussiaandGor !hina & and at a time when threats had alread% +een traded+etween these maor $owers& would oEcials and $olitical leadersnot +e tem$ted to assume the worst#


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inter$ret such action as +eing far too close for their comfort& andpotentiall. as an infringement on their s$heres of in-uence andeen ontheir sovereignt%


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A! " North American Integration

North American regional economic strength is vulnera+le.A +rea9down of coo$eration with Mexico would cause the

decline of American $ower.!lar9son J Milden+erger KStephen %lar8son, proessor o politicaleconom., niersit. o -oronto, an* ormer ellow, 6oo*row 6ilson %enter&atto &il*enberger, )hE stu*ent, ale School o @orestr. an* RnironmentalStu*ies Eepen*ent America#: >ow %ana*a an* &e4ico %onstruct s )ower p2K2

The U nited S tates' relationshi$ with !anada and Mexico thus$resents a $aradox . #oesPorth America R4ist# showe* that globaliGation was re*ucing thesalience o Porth America as an economic entit., whether in the steel sector Hs global restructuring or in

the international consoli*ation o ban8ing regulations >oweer& even as North Americanregionalism falters& the U nited S tates' immediate $eri$her% is

+ecoming a more im$ortant $artner in sustaining its material $ower .!onstrained +% its glo+al $artners' su$erior growth rates& the UnitedStates can still count on the unusuall% +ene@cial economicrelationshi$ it Fuietl. maintains with its continental $eri$her%. Although itnormall% ignores its neigh+ours' interests when dealing with othercountries& its gradual decline no longer a?ords Cashington thisluxur% without having to $a% a $rice . That $rice is its two neigh+oursex$anding their strategic ga,e from the continent to the world!anada and Mexico are endeavouring to strengthen their economiclin9s with other countries =n*ian capital is alrea*. inesting in iron"ore e4traction in Tuebec,while %hinese 5rms are sta8ing out Albertas tar san*s Ren with *isputes oer Pewoun* lan*s sealin*ustr. an* its isa restrictions on %Gech isitors, %ana*a has busil. negotiate* a comprehensie

economic tra*e agreement with the Ruropean nion Losting the D856 )conomic

Summit in 565& Mexico is $ositioning itself as the cham$ion ofemerging economies and the develo$ing world. This economicinternationali,ation could mitigate !anada's and Mexico's lo$sidedde$endencies on a US mar9etto which their access has +eencurtailed since /G. Should the% succeed in diversif%ing theireconomic lin9s +% attractingmore @E= rom oerseas an* shoul* their extra8regional im$orts and ex$orts a+road +egin to ex$and more thantheir intra8regional trade& the United States' economic $erimeter inNorth America will contract& and their construction of US materialstrength will i$so facto diminish.The North American $eri$her% has+een Uncle Sam's gold8la%ing goose for as long as most canremem+er. It would ma9e an ironic e$ita$h for the U nited S tates'hegemonic decline if alienating its most valua+le and easil%cultivated foreign asset accelerated its self8induced fall .

The $lan will accelerate e?ective investment in Mexicoand $rovide a foundation for North American integrationPastor K3 " Prof and founding director of the !enter forNorth American Studies


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illegal immigrants, who wor8 har*er or less &ore important, i the Unite* States were to oinwith Mexico in a serious commitment to narrow the income ga$, then

coo$eration over other issues would +ecome $ossi+le The +est

$lace to enforce immigration $olic% is in the wor9$lace, not at the bor*er, butnational, biometric i*enti5cation3 car*s will be nee*e* or eer.one to ma8e the polic. e[ectie, an* a3 path to legaliGation will be nee*e* toma8e it just

Drowing a strong US8Mexican relationshi$ is a$rere>uisite to continued US $ower $roection andsu$remac%.Pastor 5'obert A )astor is proessor an* *irector o the %enter or Porth AmericanStu*ies at American niersit. )astor sere* as Pational Securit. A*isor on+atin America *uring the %arter A*ministration e.on* the %ontinentalEii*e @rom the ?ul./August 2012 issue o -he American =nteresthttp://wwwthe"american"interestcom/articlecm#piece$12B9

Most Americans thin9 that the largest mar9ets for U.S. ex$orts are

!hina and


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)uro$e and the Middle )ast in $art +ecause it need not worr% a+outits neigh+ors.A new corollar. o that truth woul* not be ar behin*: %ana*a an* &e4ico are armore important to the national securit. o the nite* States than =raF an* Aghanistan e.on* theeconom. an* national securit., our two neighbors hae societal ties to the nite* States that ma8e all

other ethnic connections seem lean in comparison. 0% 561& there will +e a+out (1million $eo$le in the United States who were either +orn in Mexico

or whose $arents were +orn in MexicoC that number e4cee*s the total population o%ana*a %ana*ians in the nite* States *ont stan* out as much as *o &e4icans, but nearl. a million%ana*ians lie in the nite* States An* more Americans lie in &e4ico than in an. other oreign countr.=n sum, the econom., national securit. an* societ. o the nite* States, &e4ico an* %ana*a are ar more

intertwine* than most S, %ana*ian an* &e4ican citiGens realiGe Most Americans haven'tworried a+out Mexico in strategic terms since the da%s of PanchoQilla, or about %ana*a since the 1D1M attle o )lattsburgh That's unwise. 0ad relationswith either countr%& let alone +oth& would +e disastrous. *n theother hand& dee$er relations could +e vastl% +ene@cial .6e *ont seemrea*. to recogniGe that truth either

This is true for the entire glo+e " Mexico is a 9e% $illar forU.S. hegemon%

Smith (Simon oliar )roessor o +atin American Stu*ies at niersit. o %aliorniain San EiegoN1Q >e has been presi*ent o the +atin American Stu*iesAssociation since 19D9, )hE in %omparatie )olitics, +atin America rom%olumbia niersit. ;lobal Scenarios an* ilateral )riorities &e4ico an* thenite* States : the politics o partnership = )eter > Smith an* An*rew Selee,e*itors ) 19"20

A more nuance* interpretation o unipolarit. emerges rom the recent wor8 o Ubigniew rGeGins8i, awi*el. respecte* aca*emic an* ormer national securit. a*iser Eespite a isible shit o power rom the

6est towar* the Rast, rom the Atlantic to the )aci5c, rGeGins8i asserts that AmericaBs role inthe world will continue to +e essential in the %ears to come .=n*ee*, theongoing changes in the distri+ution of glo+al $ower and mountingglo+al strife ma9e it all the more im$erative that America not retreatinto an ignorant garrison"state mentalit. or wallow in sel"righteous cultural he*onism America is stillpeerless, he sa.s, although it must rise to meet a range o challenges *omestic an* international +i8eYagan, he conclu*es that it is a matter o national will: -he 8e. to AmericaOs uture is thus in the han*s o

the American people12 =n contrast to Yagan an* others, 0r,e,ins9i stresses theim$ortance of geogra$hic location as a maor asset for the UnitedStates . 0% this he means not onl% its Rs$lendid isolationR rom turbulenceon other continents, +ut also the $resence of a Rgood neigh+orhoodR8mar9ed +% $eaceful and coo$erative relations with !anada and

Mexico. Tran>uilit% within the neigh+orhood thus ena+les the

United States to $roect and sustain its $ower in other $arts of the

world 1O= -his insight proo8es an e4ten*e* me*itation b. rGeGins8i on S relations with &e4ico6ith ei*ent concern& he focuses on the li9el% conse>uences for Mexico of aserious decline in US $ower: A waning $artnershi$ +etween America

and Mexico could $reci$itate regional and even international

realignments . A reduction in MexicoBs democratic values& itseconomic $ower& and its $olitical sta+ilit% cou$led with the dangersof drug cartel ex$ansion would limit MexicoBs a+ilit% to +ecome aregional leaderwith a pro*uctie an* positie agen*a This& in the end& could +e


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the ultimate im$act of American decline: a wea8er less stable less economicall.iable an* more anti"American &e4ico unable to constructiel. compete with raGil or cooperatie

regional lea*ership or to help promote stabilit. in %entral America 1M Alternativel%& onemight have s$eculated on reverse cause and e?ect: the im$act onthe United States of Mexican decline& es$eciall% a descent into statefailure Ren so& 0r,e,ins9i ma9es a fundamental $oint: Mexico $rovides

a signi@cant $illar for US $ower and it therefore deservesconcomitant attention from $olic%ma9ers .

oss of American $ower $roection ca$acit% causes glo+alwar.0roo9s& I9en+err%& and Cohlforth '((Stephen, Associate)roessor o ;oernment at Eartmouth %ollege, ?ohn =8enberr. is the Albert ;&ilban8 )roessor o )olitics an* =nternational AJairs at )rinceton niersit.,6illiam % 6ohlorth is the Eaniel 6ebster )roessor in the Eepartment o;oernment at Eartmouth %ollege Eont %ome >ome America: -he %aseAgainst 'etrenchment, =nternational Securit., ol !K, Po ! (6inter

2012/1!, pp K^1

A core premise o dee$ engagement is that it $revents the emergence of afar more dangerous glo+al securit% environment. For one thing& asnoted a+ove& the United States' overseas $resence gives it theleverage to restrain $artners from ta9ing $rovocative action .Perha$s more im$ortant& its core alliance commitments also deterstates with as$irations to regional hegemon% from contem$latingex$ansion an* ma8e its partners more secure, re*ucing their incentie to a*opt solutions to theirsecurit. problems that threaten others an* thus sto8e securit. *ilemmas -he contention that

engaged U.S. $ower dam$ens the +aleful e?ects of anarch. is consistent withinIuential ariants o realist theor. =n*ee*, arguabl. the scariest portra.al o the war"prone worl* that

woul* emerge absent the American )aci5er is proi*e* in the wor8s o ?ohn Mearsheimer& who

forecasts dangerous multi$olar regions re$lete with securit%com$etition& arms races& nuclear $roliferation and associated$reventive war tem$tations& regional rivalries& and even runs atregional hegemon% and full8scale great $ower war. K2 >ow *o retrenchment a*ocates, the bul8 o whomare realists, *iscount this bene5t# -heir arguments are complicate*, but two capture most o the ariation: (1 S securit. guarantees are not necessar. to preent *angerous rialries an* conIict in RurasiaC or (2preention o rialr. an* conIict in Rurasia is not a S interest Rach response is connecte* to a *iJerent theor. or set o theories, which ma8es sense gien that the whole *ebate hinges on a comple4 uturecounteractual (what woul* happen to Rurasias securit. setting i the nite* States trul. *isengage*# Although a certain answer is impossible, each o these responses is nonetheless a wea8er argument orretrenchment than a*ocates ac8nowle*ge -he 5rst response Iows rom *eensie realism as well as other international relations theories that *iscount the conIict"generating potential o anarch. un*ercontemporar. con*itions K! Eeensie realists maintain that the high e4pecte* costs o territorial conFuest, *eense *ominance, an* an arra. o policies an* practices that can be use* cre*ibl. to signal benignintent, mean that Rurasias major states coul* manage regional multipolarit. peaceull. without the American paci5er 'etrenchment woul* be a bet on this scholarship, particularl. in regions where the 8in*s ostabiliGers that nonrealist theories point toLsuch as *emocratic goernance or *ense institutional lin8agesLare either absent or wea8l. present -here are three other major bo*ies o scholarship, howeer, thatmight gie *ecisionma8ers pause beore ma8ing this bet @irst is regional e4pertise Pee*less to sa., there is no consensus on the net securit. eJects o S with*rawal 'egar*ing each region, there are optimistsan* pessimists @ew e4perts e4pect a return o intense great power competition in a post"American Rurope, but man. *oubt Ruropean goernments will pa. the political costs o increase* R *eense cooperationan* the bu*getar. costs o increasing militar. outla.s KM -he result might be a Rurope that is incapable o securing itsel rom arious threats that coul* be *estabiliGing within the region an* be.on* (eg, aregional conIict a8in to the 1990s al8an wars, lac8s capacit. or global securit. missions in which S lea*ers might want Ruropean participation, an* is ulnerable to the inIuence o outsi*e rising powers 6hatabout the other parts o Rurasia where the nite* States has a substantial militar. presence# 'egar*ing the &i**le Rast, the balance begins to swing towar* pessimists concerne* that states currentl. bac8e* b.6ashingtonL notabl. =srael, Rg.pt, an* Sau*i ArabiaLmight ta8e actions upon S retrenchment that woul* intensi. securit. *ilemmas An* concerning Rast Asia, pessimism regar*ing the regions prospectswithout the American paci5er is pronounce* Arguabl. the principal concern e4presse* b. area e4perts is that ?apan an* South Yorea are li8el. to obtain a nuclear capacit. an* increase their militar. commitments,which coul* sto8e a *estabiliGing reaction rom %hina =t is notable that *uring the %ol* 6ar, both South Yorea an* -aiwan moe* to obtain a nuclear weapons capacit. an* were onl. constraine* rom *oing so b. astill"engage* nite* States K -he secon* bo*. o scholarship casting *oubt on the bet on *eensie realisms sanguine portra.al is all o the research that un*ermines its conception o state preerencesEeensie realisms optimism about what woul* happen i the nite* States retrenche* is er. much *epen*ent on its particularLan* highl. restrictieLassumption about state preerencesC once we rela4 thisassumption, then much o its basis or optimism anishes Speci5call., the pre*iction o post"American tranFuilit. throughout Rurasia rests on the assumption that securit. is the onl. releant state preerence, withsecurit. *e5ne* narrowl. in terms o protection rom iolent e4ternal attac8s on the homelan* n*er that assumption, the securit. problem is largel. sole* as soon as oJense an* *eense are clearl.

*istinguishable, an* oJense is e4tremel. e4pensie relatie to *eense0urgeoning research across thesocial an* other

sciences, howeer, undermines that core assum$tion: states have$referencesnot onl. or securit. but also for $restige& status& and other aims,an* the. engage in tra*e"oJs among the arious objecties KB =n a**ition, the. *e5ne securit. not just interms o territorial protection but in iew o man. an* arie* milieu goals =t ollows that een states thatare relatiel. secure ma. neertheless engage in highl. competitie behaior Rmpirical stu*ies show thatthis is in*ee* sometimes the case KK =n sum, a bet on a benign postretrenchment Rurasia is a bet thatlea*ers o major countries will neer allow these nonsecurit. preerences to inIuence their strategicchoices -o the *egree that these bo*ies o scholarl. 8nowle*ge hae pre*ictie leerage, Sretrenchment woul* result in a signi5cant *eterioration in the securit. enironment in at least some o theworl*s 8e. regions 6e hae alrea*. mentione* the thir*, een more alarming bo*. o scholarship


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%ield either a com$etitive regional multi$olarit% com$lete withassociated insecurit%& arms racing& crisis insta+ilit%& nuclear$roliferation& andthe li8e, or bi*s or regional hegemon., which ma. be be.on* the capacit. olocal great powers to contain (an* which in an. case woul* generate intensel. competitie behaior,

possibl. inclu*ing regional great $ower war .>ence it is unsurprising that retrenchmenta*ocates are prone to ocus on the secon* argument note* aboe: that aoi*ing wars an* securit.*ilemmas in the worl*s core regions is not a S national interest @ew *oubt that the nite* States coul*surie the return o insecurit. an* conIict among Rurasian powers, but at what cost# &uch o the wor8 inthis area has ocuse* on the economic e4ternalities o a renewe* threat o insecurit. an* war, which we*iscuss below @ocusing on the pure securit. rami5cations, there are two main reasons wh. *ecisionma8ersma. be rationall. reluctant to run the retrenchment e4periment @irst, oerall higher leels o conIict ma8ethe worl* a more *angerous place 6ere Rurasia to return to higher leels o interstate militar.

competition, one would seeoerall higher leels o militar. spen*ing an* innoation an* a higherli8elihoo* o competitie regional$rox% wars and arming of client statesLall o whichwoul* be concerning, in part because it woul* promote a aster *iJusion o militar. power awa. rom the nite* States ;reater regionalinsecurit. coul* well ee* prolieration casca*es, as states such as Rg.pt, ?apan, South Yorea, -aiwan, an* Sau*i Arabia all might choose tocreate nuclear orces KD =t is unli8el. that prolieration *ecisions b. an. o these actors woul* be the en* o the game: the. woul* li8el.generate pressure locall. or more prolieration @ollowing Yenneth 6altG, man. retrenchment a*ocates are prolieration optimists, assumingthat nuclear *eterrence soles the securit. problem K9 suall. carrie* out in *.a*ic terms, the *ebate oer the stabilit. o prolierationchanges as the numbers go up )rolieration optimism rests on assumptions o rationalit. an* narrow securit. preerences =n social science,howeer, such assumptions are ineitabl. probabilistic


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%hie Anal.st at 6i8istrat, wor8e* as the Assistant or Strategic @utures inthe


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6estern Rurope rom its hal"centur. o ciil war, the S emerge* as the progenitor o a new, ar morejust orm o globaliGation "" one base* on actual ree tra*e rather than colonialism America thensuccessull. replicate* globaliGation urther in Rast Asia oer the secon* hal o the 20th centur.,setting the stage or the )aci5c %entur. now unol*ing


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Solvenc%

The $lan um$starts +road internal reforms in Mexico that$romote economic growth while creating e?ective +ordersecurit%Lussain K3 " Prof of I the #e$t of Int'l Studies&Universidad I+eroamericana& Mexico !it%=mtiaG, %ommunit., *iJusion, V Porth American e4pansieness, googleboo8s, %&'

North American is *iJerent rom Rurope, but it shouldlearn rom the e4perience, an*esta+lish a North American Investment Fund that would invest 56+$er %ear for a decade to +uild roads to connect the south and centerof Mexico to the Unite* States &e4ico shoul* proi*e hal o the un*sC the S, M0_, an*%ana*a, 10_ -he un*s shoul* be a*ministere* b. the 6orl* an8 To ma9e +est use ofthese resources& Mexico needsalso to underta9e @scal& energ%&

electricit%& and la+or reforms >oweer, instead of ma9ing the aidconditional or waiting for Mexico to do the reforms& the three leadersshould decide how each would contri+ute to the communit%'s goal ofnarrowing the ga$. This a$$roach would give Mexico the leverage tounderta9e the reforms 3ThePorth American =nestment Fundwoul* spen* less than halas much as Rurope *i* in hal the time, but couple* with comprehensie reorms, it would $ro$elMexico's econom% forward -he S contribution oer ten .ears woul* be about one"thir* owhat it has spent in =raF in the last three .ears, but in this case the US econom% would+ene@t -his un* wont en* illegal immigration oernight or een in 10 .ears, but unlesssomething is done to reduce the income ga$& illegal migration willincrease = &e4ico grows at twice the rate o the S an* %ana*a, as woul* occur un*er this plan, thega$ will close +% 56 in a decade& and Mexicans will +egin to thin9

a+out their future in Mexico rather than $lan for their exit north. Acommunit% a$$roachto narrowing the income gap would %ield dividends in

other areas =n a post"9/11 worl*, the +est wa% to assure the securit% of

North Americais not at our +orderswith %ana*a an* &e4ico an* not b. *e5ning securit.solel. b. ences, but rather +% forging a consensus with our neigh+ors to +uild

a North American Securit% Perimeter %ana*ian, Mexican& and US

oEcials would wor9 together on the same team& sharing

intelligence and using the same $rocedures and exclusion lists at

ever% $ort of entr% -his woul* supplement, not eliminate e4isting bor*er protection N)age !K"!DQ

Investment fund reinvigorates US regional leadershi$ andsustains long8term coo$eration with Mexico while$romoting successful integrationPastor 5 " $rof and director of the !enter for NorthAmerican Studies American'obert A, e.on* the %ontinental Eii*e, ?ul./August, http://wwwthe"american"interestcom/articlecm#piece$12B9, %&'
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The Presidents of the Unite* States and Mexicoan* the )rime &inister o %ana*ashould see9 to construct a North American !ommunit% that wouldinvigorate their economies and im$rove the region'scom$etitiveness with Asia an* Rurope, enhancecontinental an* public securit%&address more e?ectivel% the new transnational agenda& and designleanbut e?ective trinational institutionsor the 21st centur. 3Such a %ommunit.woul* a*ance the principal goals o each countr. For Mexico& it would narrow thedevelo$ment ga$ and lift its $eo$le to First8Corld status @or %ana*a, itwoul* create institutions that woul* bin* the three nations to agree* stan*ar*s For the Unite*

States, it would create a new st%le of leadershi$ more aligned with

long8term goals than with short8term s$ecial interests @or all three

countries, it would allow a more coo$erative and e?ective a$$roach to

transnational issues li9e trans$ortation& infrastructure& immigration&anti8narcotics $olicies and the environment 3-he ision that un*ergir*s thisproposal is base* on a principle o manage* inter*epen*ence = one countr. suJers a setbac8, all are hurtCsuccess or one helps the others -he principle is simple an* oten lau*e* b. lea*ers, but rarel. acte* on =the nite* States actuall. accepte* its share* responsibilit. or the *rug problem, or e4ample, it woul*get serious about ma8ing sure the K,00 gun shops on the S si*e o the bor*er *o not sell weapons to

*rug cartels An* i all three countries actuall. incorporate* a sense o communit., the. woul* a*ertiseu. Porth America instea* o u. SA, u. &e4ico or u. %ana*a3-he wor* %ommunit. reersto a group in which the members eel an a7nit. an* *esire to cooperate =t is not a union, an* theirrelationship woul* *iJer rom Ruropes, although, as alrea*. suggeste*, it shoul* tr. to learn rom Ruropese4perience =t woul* be Ie4ible enough or the three countries to *e5ne the new relationship that the.woul* see8 +i8e the people an* states o Porth America, the %ommunit. woul* be eminentl. pragmatic,choosing policies base* on what a*ances the interests o all 3. moing rom a *ual"bilateralrelationship to a trilateral approach, the three countries coul* aoi* *uplication an* clashing eJorts -he.woul* replace power imbalances with air rules an* woul* mobiliGe all three peoples to attac8 problemsrather than each other 3=n Eecember 2011, the S an* %ana*ian goernments presente* Action )lanson the bor*er an* regulator. conergence, an* the S an* &e4ican goernments repeate* the samee4ercise -he three countries restate* the goal that the. announce* a *eca*e beore in the two Smartor*ers agreements: to ma8e the bor*er e7cient an* secure An* the. a7rme* the nee* to harmoniGeregulations, just as the. *i* in 200, when the. establishe* the Securit. an* )rosperit. )artnership toaoi* the t.rann. o small *iJerences in regulations that sere onl. to protect companies rather thanbene5t consumers 3As it turne* out, the Action )lans were reall. inaction plans -he. set one".ear*ea*lines or stu*ies on irtuall. eer. issue i*enti5e* a *eca*e ago without eer tr.ing to e4plain wh. thethree goernments ha* aile* to achiee their goals -he


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raising environmental and la+or standards& training tri8nationalteams of customs oEcersOthese small ste$s could +egin toinvigorate the slee$ing giant of North America

*nl% an investment fund can restore US8Mexico relations&+oost com$etitiveness& and eliminate the income ga$ toslow illegal immigrationPastor 3 " #irector !enter for North American Studies'obert A, -he Solution to Porth Americas -riple )roblem: -he %ase or aPorth American =nestment @un*, ear 2, Po 2, ?anuar.,http://wwwamericane*u/sis/cnas/uploa*/tripleZproblemZpastorp*, %&'

-he Porth American @ree -ra*e Agreement (NAFTA came into e?ecton 3?anuar. 1, //7an*, inthirteen .ears, tra*e among %ana*a, &e4ico, an* the nite* 3States triple* an* oreign *irect inestment Fuintuple*,

ma8ing Porth America the largest 3ree tra*e area in the worl* #es$ite thissuccess, relationsamong allthree countries 3deteriorated & and a swirl of $ro+lems led man% to view

NAFTA as a failure 3A maor cause of the deterioration of relations is

the failure ofthe three 3governments to @nd agreement on immigration&trade& and securit% Pone o these 3problems can be sole* easil. or soon but serious progress is notpossible until the three 3goernments begin to construct a communit. o interests in which each o the them 3commitsigni5cant resources an* un*erta8e reorms to close the income gap between 3&e4ico an* its two neighbors an* orgeinstitutions an* proce*ures to sustain trust 36h. is the income gap so important to each o the three issues# %ontrar. to3conentional wis*om, more than 90 percent o the un*ocumente* wor8ers rom &e4ico 3*o not come to the nite*

States see8ing jobs -he. leae jobs in &e4ico or much 3better wages in the nite* States Unless theincome ga$ is signi@cantl% narrowed& migration from Mexico will

continue to ex$and Securing the Unite* States after /G de$ends on a

secure continent and that is diEcult when one of the wea9est lin9sis Mexico's $overt%.@inall., ree tra*e policies hae become unpopular because o chronic 3*isputes, theiew b. some in the nite* States that it loses jobs because o ree tra*e, the 3ailure o the nite* States to compl. with

PA@-A courts, an* the iew that &e4ico 3woul* be more *eelope* i ree tra*e wor8e* 3All three $ro+lems$oint to the same solution: a North American Investment Fund 3whichinests `20 billion per .ear or a *eca*e to close the income gap b. grants to buil* 3inrastructureLroa*s,communications, railroa*s, portsLto connect the poor center an* 3south o &e4ico to its northern neighbors -en billion

*ollars woul* come rom 3a**itional ta4es b. &e4icansC / +illion would come from the Unite*States, an* `1 3billion rom %ana*a ut these would onl% +e $art of an arrangementwhere+% Mexico underta9es the 8in*s oreforms that would allow it toma9e e?ective use of these resources. Such a @un* is onl. possible i the threegoernments articulate a Porth American 3%ommunit. an* ple*ge to contribute, each in its own wa., to a strateg. thatwill close the 3income gap an* buil* institutions to resole ol* problems an* a**ress new opportunities 3-hat is thesolution Pow, what e4actl. is the problem# = immigrants contribute to the 3S econom. so much, wh. is it a problem#3Euring a state isit b. &e4ican )resi*ent icente @o4 in September 2001, just 3*a.s beore the September 11th

trage*., )resi*ent ;eorge 6 ush agree* to reorm S 3immigration laws as the. aJecte* &e4ico There areabout million undocumented wor9ers; in the Unite* States, of whomabout 2.( million are Mexicans @o4 wante* to 3regulariGe the status o the &e4icans an* ensure alarge an* stea*. Iow o temporar. 3wor8ers Eespite ushs ple*ge to a**ress the issue, our .ears passe* beore he

sent his3%abinet to %ongress to outline his A*ministrations approach e propose* moreun*ing or bor*er patrol, een though the number o 3o7cers triple* an* the bu*get increase* ten"ol* *uring thepreious two *eca*es 3(&asse. 200 36hile the S was concerne* with securit., the immigration issue is primaril. an3economic an* social issue -he S wants cheap labor an* &e4icans want better wages 3in the nite* States -here isnothing wrong with that, e4cept that &e4icans who are in 3the nite* States illegall. are easil. e4ploite* an*, thus, arecompelle* to wor8 har*er at 3wages too low or most Americans Ren *uring the boom .ears o the 1990s, when the 3income o most Americans improe*, the wages o natie"born uns8ille* wor8ers 3*ecline* b. about 10 percent, *ue, inpart, to more competition b. i llegal wor8ers -here 3is, also, a humanitarian issue o *ealing with 11 million illegalmigrants in the countr. 3-he nite* States has embar8e* on a long journe. to cope with these problems, 3an* while

there are man. $ro$osals to regulari,e the 11 million undocumented wor9ers3in
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the countr., none can *o so without proo8ing a new wae o illegal migration Pone 3o these proposals will sole oreen re*uce the Iow o un*ocumente* migration to the 3nite* States =n*ee*, regulariGing the status o those who are

here illegall.ma% well encourage greater -ows in the future -his is what occurre*ater passage o the 19DB 3=mmigration 'eorm an* %ontrol Act, which combine* legaliGation, which was 3implemente*,an* emplo.er sanctions, which were largel. ignore* -his was one o the 3reasons wh. immigration reorm aile* to passthe Senate in ?une 200K 3-he American people are increasingl. rustrate* an* worrie* about the inabilit. 3o the Sgoernment to control the bor*ers A Pew or8 -imes/%S poll in oweer, no one has

propose* an eJectie strateg. to a**ress the challenge -he reason 3is that it woul* be er. e4pensie to sole this

problem because there is onl. one wa. to 3re*uce that Iow The develo$ment ga$ +etweenthe Unite* States and Mexico must +e narrowed. A strateg% aimed toaccom$lish that goal would not onl% reduce illegal migration itwould solve several other chronic $ro+lems in North America and+e%ond 3Man% in Mexico viewedthe Porth American @ree -ra*e Agreement (NAFTA as a vehicle to achieve a @rst8world econom% and close thedevelo$ment ga$ that se$arated it from its northern neigh+ors &an. inthe nite* States supporte* PA@-A in the hope 3that it woul* re*uce un*ocumente* migration rom &e4ico &an. in+atin America an* 3the %aribbean loo8e* at PA@-A as a mo*el or a @ree -ra*e Area o the Americas 3(@-AA, whichwoul* allow them to boar* a train to the 5rst worl* Although PA@-A 3e4pan*e* tra*e within Porth America, neither the

*eelopment gap nor un*ocumente* 3migration *iminishe* an*, as it +ecame clear that free8trade did not achieve the $romise of develo$ment& man% in atin

America and +e%ond >uestioned the utilit% of free trade 3Until freetrade can +e viewed as +ene@cial to its $oorer mem+ers& the$ros$ect of ex$anding its +oundaries will remain small. Unless anduntil the develo$ment ga$ +etween Mexico and the U.S. can +egin to

close& the $ros$ect of having a genuine $artnershi$ among the three countries

o Porth 3America will remain distant -here are other compelling reasons or the three 3goernments toconsi*er the *eelopment gap as the paramount challenge acing Porth 3America PA@-A, at best, has run out o steamC

the continental relationshi$s are in danger of going into reverse -hepolic. responses to 9/11 an* the creation o the 3Eepartment o >omelan* Securit. hae constructe* a ormi*able spee*bump on the two 3bor*ers that impe*e tra*e 3PA@-A ma. be iewe* as a problem but Porth America is, actuall., a 3

magni5cent opportunit. Stimulating Mexico's econom% might +e one of the

+est wa%s to $romote com$etitiveness for the entire continent -he

most eJectie response to 3competition rom %hina, or e4ample, is one that merges the comparatie a*antages o 3each unit o Porth America #evelo$ing a communit% of interests in whichthe three 3governments ta9e ste$s to ma9e the continent more secure and

their relationshi$s fair would esta+lish the region as the model


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1AC Mexico Investment

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