Launch Pads 1AC

8/13/2019 Launch Pads 1AC

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Dominion Debate 2012-2013[File Name] [Name]

Contention 1 is Inherency

Federal focus on heavy lift launches inhibits rivate s ace industry develo ment!this "ills efforts for s ace coloni#ationCiti#en $ ace 12(a project of the United States Rocket Academy, is dedicated to citizen science and citizen space exploration,Another Vicious Cycle !"#"$%, http&""''' citizensinspace or)"%*$%"*!"another+ icious+circle" -

.esterday, 'e pu/lished an article on ho' launch pad shorta)es are causin) customers to /undle satellites toreduce the num/er of launches Unfortunately, this creates a icious cycle 0he ultimate solution to thelaunch+pad pro/lem is to transition from expenda/le launch ehicles to reusa/le ehicles , 'hich can /eprepped 1uickly and don2t spend a lot of time on the pad 3ut /undlin) satellites onto lar)er rocketsreduces the num/er of launches, 'hich reduces the apparent demand and harms the /usiness case forreusa/le ehicles As a result, the pad pro/lem continues Vicious cycles like this ha e pre ented thede elopment of reusa/le launch ehicles for 4* years Ri)ht no', 5ASA is contri/utin) to another iciouscycle in a /i) 'ay (/oth fi)urati ely and literally- 'ith the de elopment of the Space 6aunch System Anam/itious deep+space exploration /acked /y 5ASA, could create a market for many hundreds of smallslaunches, or it could support the de elopment a superhea y launch system like S6S 7 /ut it can2t afford/oth At the same, the de elopment of S6S 'ill mean that any exploration hard'are 5ASA de elops 'ill

/e desi)ned to fit on S6S, and impossi/le to launch on smaller, more economical reusa/le ehicles 'hichmi)ht /e de eloped in the pri ate sector 0hus, the Space 6aunch System threatens to lock 5ASA into hi)h launch costsfor another )eneration 'hile depri in) pri ate industry of the chance to compete for a market that could /rin) a/out a re olution inlaunch costs 8f America is to ha e a meanin)ful future in space, 'e need to /reak out of these iciouscycles 0he solution is not, as some /elie e, to )et the US )o ernment to /uy a handful of fli)hts to the 8nternational SpaceStation (0here2s a )ood reason 'hy 5ASA2s C90S and CC:;V pro)rams are fundin) expenda/le ehicles, not reusa/les - 0omake real pro)ress, 'e need thousands of launches

%hus the lan& %he 'nited $tates Federal (overnment )ill substantially increaseits investment in commercial launch ads* +e reserve the ri,ht to clarify*

Contention 2 is Coloni#ation. erts a,ree that asteroid stri"es are inevitable!the im act is ei,ht times the

lar,est bomb ever detonated and ris"s lanetary destructionColumbus Dis atch /

Astronomical odds ,


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site in 9hio=s Adams County that is B miles in diameter Asteroid trackin) 'as lar)ely the role of amateur astronomers until a fe'years a)o, 'hen )o ernments started to )et in ol ed 5ASA, for example, is a/out #* percent of the 'ay throu)h an effort toidentify all near+;arth asteroids lar)er than a/out one+third of a mile in diameter So far, #$ potentiall% dangero sasteroids ha&e been named and charted Comets also are a concern, /ut there are so many more asteroids that they)et the most attention 0he closeness of a close encounter is relati e 0here 'ere close encounters on


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co ered /y ash, 'hich mi)ht take many years L possi/ly decades L to erode a'ay and for e)etation toreco er , Sparks said .ello'stone may /e 'indin) do'n )eolo)ically, experts say 3ut they /elie e it har/ors at least one final punch Klo/ally,there are still plenty of possi/ilities for super olcano eruptions , e en as ;arth 1uiets do'n o er the lon) haul of its 4 B+/illion+year existence 0he earth is of course losin) ener)y, /ut at a ery slo' rate, and the effects are only really noticea/le o er /illions rather thanmillions of years, Sparks said >uman impact 0he odds of a )lo/ally destructi e olcano explosion in any )i en century are extremely lo', and no

scientist can say 'hen the next one 'ill occur 3ut the chances are fi e to $* times )reater than a )lo/ally destructi easteroid impact , accordin) to the ne' 3ritish report 0he next super eruption, 'hene er it occurs, mi)ht not /e the first one humans ha e dealt'ith A/out #4,*** years a)o , in 'hat is no' Sumatra, a olcano called 0o/a /le' 'ith a force estimated at $*,***times that of Dount St >elens Ash darkened the sky all around the planet 0emperatures plummeted /yup to %$ de)rees at hi)her latitudes, accordin) to research /y Dichael Rampino, a /iolo)ist and )eolo)ist at 5e' .ork Uni ersity Rampino hasestimated three+1uarters of the plant species in the 5orthern >emisphere perished Stanley Am/rose, an anthropolo)ist at the Uni ersity of 8llinois,su))ested in $!!G that RampinoIs 'ork mi)ht explain a curious /ottleneck in human e olution& 0he /lueprints of life for all humans L :5A L are

remarka/ly similar, )i en that our species /ranched off from the rest of the primate family tree a fe' million years a)o Am/rose has saidearly humans 'ere perhaps pushed to the ed)e of extinction after the 0o/a eruption L around the same time folks)ot serious a/out art and tool makin) Herhaps only a fe' thousand sur i ed >umans today 'ould all /e descended from these fe', andin terms of the )enetic code, not a 'hole lot 'ould chan)e in #4,*** years Sittin) ducks 3ased on the latest e idence, eruptions thesize of the )iant .ello'stone and 0o/a e ents occur at least e ery $**,*** years , Sparks said, and it could/e as hi)h as e ery B*,*** years 0here are smaller /ut ne ertheless hu)e eruptions 'hich 'ould ha e continental to )lo/alconse1uences e ery B,*** years or so Unlike other threats to humanity L asteroids, nuclear attacks and )lo/al 'armin), to name afe' L thereIs little to /e done a/out a super olcano @hile it may in future /e possi/le to deflect asteroids or someho' a oidtheir impact, e en science fiction cannot produce a credi/le mechanism for a ertin) a super eruption, the ne' report states 5o strate)ies can/e en isa)ed for reducin) the po'er of major olcanic eruptions 0he Keolo)ical Society of 6ondon has issued similar'arnin)s )oin) /ack to %*** 0he scientists this 'eek called for more fundin) to in esti)ate further the history of super eruptions and their likely effects

on the planet and on modern society Sooner or later a super eruption 'ill happen on ;arth , and this issue also demandsserious attention, the report concludes

4erneshots inevitably lead to e.tinction5ado)it#6 07(Eohn on Rado'itz, science correspondent for 9tter2s >aunt, Verneshot & ;arth /last cause of dinosaur2s extinction= B"%$"*4,http&""otters co za" domeM erneshot+theory htm-0he dinosaurs mi,ht not have been the victims of a ,iant asteroid after all %hey could have beenblo)n out of e.istence by an almi)hty under)round explosion 'ith the ener)y of se en million atom /om/s, accordin) to ane' theory A team of scientists claims the ;arth+shakin) /last, called a 4erneshot , is the /est explanation for 'hy thedinosaurs 'ere 'iped out B million years a)o Dost experts /elie e the extinction 'as caused /y a hu)e asteroid or comet thatsmashed into the ;arth off the coast of Dexico 9thers ha e /lamed a me)a+ olcanic episode, called a continental /lood /asalt,

'hich resulted in numerous ents pourin) poison )as into the atmosphere from a re)ion called the :eccan 0raps in 8ndia 3utthere2s a mystery that neither theory has /een a/le to sol e 0he death of the dinosaurs )as not the only masse.tinction to ha e occurred since complex life emer)ed on the ;arth 4** million years a)o 8n fact there have been four

And each one seems to ha e coincided both )ith a continental flood basalt and a meteorite im act , e enthou)h the chances of this ha enin, are remote 0he pro/a/ility of all four extinctions occurrin) at the same time as animpact and continental flood /asalt is one in 36 00 3ut accordin) to the ne' theory from a team of Kerman scientists, a4erneshot could ans)er the riddle and account for im act evidence such as craters 0he nameVerneshot comes from Eules Verne2s /ook iroshima at the end of the Second @orld @ar:e/ris 'ould rain do'n from the sky, and dust )ould blot out the sun to cause the same "ind of climatechan,in, effects as an im act from s ace A lar)e piece of roc" from a 4erneshot blast landin, on the

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;arth )ould roduce a crater in the same )ay as an asteroid or comet An o/ject ejected from the :eccan 0rapscould e. lain )hy the Chic.ulub crater , linked to the extinction of the dinosaurs, is so lo sided Dodellers ha econcluded that the im actor must have come in from the south-east at an an,le of about 20 de,rees0hat doesn2t rule out a meteorite, /ut it also fits in )ith debris flyin, from the direction of India 0he scientists, led/y Eason Hhipps Dor)an, at the Keomar earth science institute at Jiel Uni ersity, /elie e all the impact si)natures associated 'ithmass extinctions can /e explained /y the Verneshot theory, Dee mantle volcanism , for instance, )ould brin, therare element iridium to the surface , 'hile the e. losion )ould roduce 8uart# crystals riddled )ithtiny fractures Small /lo/s of melted roc" and carbon articles called fullerines 7 other hallmarks of ameteorite impact 7 could also be formed Hhipps Dor)an, 'hose claims 'ere reported in 5e' Scientist ma)azine,ackno'led)es that the theory is ery difficult to pro e 0he /est e idence 'ould /e to locate the remains of a Verneshot pipe /uriedunder kilometres of rock 0hese should sho' up on seismic ima)es and )ra ity sur eys A circular )ra ity anomaly relatin) todistur/ed areas of /asaltic rock 'ould /e one expected find, says Hhipps Dor)an

very second )e delay commitment on s ace coloni#ation one hundred trillion eo le die*ostrom 07 , 5ick, professor of philosophy at .ale Uni ersity (%**4, Astronomical @aste& 0he

9pportunity Cost of :elayed 0echnolo)ical :e elopment, http&""''' nick/ostrom com"astronomical"'aste html-

As a rough approximation, let us saythe Vir)o Supercluster contains $*N$F stars One estimate of the computin) po'erextracta/le from a star and with an associated planet-sized computational structure, using advanced molecular nanotechnology[2], is $*N4%operations per second .[3] A typical estimate of the human /rain2s processin) po'er is rou)hly $*N$# operationsper second or less [!] "ot much more seems to #e needed to simulate the relevant parts of the environment in sufficient detail to ena#le the simulatedminds to have experiences indistinguisha#le from typical current human experiences [$] %iven these estimates, it follows that the otential fora ro.imately 1093: human lives is lost every century that coloni#ation of our local su erclusteris delayed ; or e&uivalently, a#out $*NF$ potential human li es per second *@hile this estimate is conser ati e in thatit assumes only computational mechanisms whose implementation has #een at least outlined in the literature, it is useful to have an e en moreconser ati e estimate that does not assume a non-#iological instantiation of the potential persons 'uppose that a#out ()*() #iological humanscould #e sustained around an average star +hen the irgo 'upercluster could contain ()*23 #iological humans +hiscorresponds to a loss ofpotential e1ual to a/out $*N$4 potential human li es per second of delayed colonization *@hat matters forpresent purposes is not the exact num/ers /ut the fact that they are hu)e ven )ith the mostconservative estimate6 assumin, a biolo,ical im lementation of all ersons6 the otential for onehundred trillion otential human bein,s is lost for every second of ost onement of coloni#ationof our su ercluster*

$ ace e. loration )ill unify nations sto in, countries from fi,htin, in the firstlace < solves your )ar im acts

Sagan 94 , (Carl, professor of Cornell quoted in a book review from,http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/ /books/!"#$!"%%%%/reviews/!%& %%'" "" !)'"%##*

+his logical successor to osmos .(/0)1 offers the characteristic 'agan #lueprint for human ind s long-term vitality 4n (//), while speeding out of the solarsystem, the oyager ( spacecraft snapped photographs of the planets 5rom a distance of 3 6 #illion miles, the 7arth appears as a 88pale #lue dot --a metaphor'agan .Astronomy and 'pace 'ciences9 ornell :niv 1 employs to underscore the utter insignificance of our home world in relation to the great expanse of space4n his usual elo&uent and impassioned language, he #uilds a cogent argument that our species must venture into this vast realm and esta#lish a space-faringcivilization 5ully ac nowledging the exor#itant costs that are involved in manned spaceflight while we concurrently face pressing social, economic, andenvironmental pro#lems at home, 'agan asserts that our very survival de ends on coloni#in, outer s ace *

Astronomers ha e already identified dozens of potential Arma)eddons in the form of asteroids that 'ill

someday smash into ;arth Undou/tedly, many more remain undetected 0he only 'ay to a ert ine ita/lecatastrophe , 'agan argues, is for nations to join to)ether and esta/lish a permanent human presence in space Ultimately, he predicts, humans 'ill con1uer space /ecause, like the planets that roam the sky (OOplanetIImeans OO'andererII in Kreek-, 'e too are 'anderers :eep 'ithin us lies a spark that compels us toexplore, and space pro ides the ne' frontier 0he exploration of space 'ill inspire the 'orldIs youn)people and unify 1uarrelin) nations 0echnolo)y has /rou)ht humanity to its moment of truth& =ur

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s ecies has the ca ability either to annihilate itself or to avoid e.tinction by >ourneyin, to other)orlds +he prefera#le choice is o#vious to 'agan +he #oo lac s even the sem#lance of a specific plan for achieving a space-faring civilization"evertheless, 'agan will once again dazzle readers with his #rilliance and #readth of vision

No) is "ey!narro) )indo) of ca abilitiesn,dahl 200: (Syl ia ;n)dahl has 'ritten many non+fiction /ooks on space exploration and

de elopment 5o em/er B, %**G http&""''' syl iaen)dahl com"space"sur i al htm - hssI have called this sta,e in our evolution the Critical $ta,e Haul 6e inson Pthe :irector ofConnected ;ducationQ uses different terminolo)y for the same concept >e says that )e have only anarro) )indo) to ,et into s ace6 a relatively short time durin, )hich )e have the ca ability6but have not yet run out of the resources to do it* 8 a)ree 'ith him completely a/out this

. ansion into s ace demands hi,h technolo,y and full utili#ation of our )orld?s materialresources (althou)h not destructi e utilization- 8t also demands financial resources that 'e 'ill notha e if 'e deplete the material resources of ;arth @nd it demands human resources6 )hich )e)ill lose if )e are reduced to ,lobal )ar or )ides read starvation * Finally6 it demands s iritualresources6 )hich )e are not li"ely to retain under the sort of dictatorshi that )ould benecessary to maintain a sustainableA ,lobal civili#ation*

Dis ersal of humanity across s ace is "ey to reducin, e.istential threats to arth

< other s ecies e.tinction cases rove$o)ers6 2 (Keor)e, transhumanist, 0he 0ranshumanist Case for Space, April,http&""''' )eor)eso'ers com"9therMpdf"0heMtransMcaseMforMspace pdf -

+hat can )e do to ma.imi#e our odds of survival , irrespecti e of 'hat those odds mi)ht actually /e=


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could say that the pro/a/ility of a si)nificant asteroid strike ()reater than x tons- to the earth 'ithin the next $** years is y y to !B confidence 8thappens that the pro/a/ility of an asteroid strike is perhaps the easiest of all to estimate )i en the + $$ + a aila/le astronomical data 0he other e entsare de ilishly hard to )et credi/le num/ers for, so 'e 'ould resort to a relati e likelihood 0he se erity of conse1uences is a)ain ery difficult to predict/ut 'ould )enerally ran)e from complete extinction throu)h collapse of ci ilization to a relati ely mild economic do'nturn >ere it is helpful to de isesome common system of measurement in order to facilitate comparison of different risks ence the rest of this paper assumes that o er comin)decades households 'ill start to purchase space Ti)ht ser ices, 'hich 'ill )ro' to reach B millionpassen)ers"year , out of a 'orld'ide middle+class population of more than % /illion people, a fe' decades from no' Startin)from today, in order to achie e the scale of acti ity sho'n in


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ha e /een esta/lished All of this acti ity is occurrin) some years /efore the first hi)h+priced ser ices e enstart, so a much 'ider ran)e of different space tra el+related /usinesses are sure to )ro' in future 8n thecase of or/ital ser ices there 'ill /e an e en 'ider ran)e of companies 'ith much lar)er re enues,includin) companies supplyin) arious ser ices to or/itin) hotels 0hese 'ill include ser ices 'hich terrestrialhotels typically purchase today, such as caterin), cleanin), accountin), entertainment, plus such additional ser ices asspace+/ased 'indo' maintenance, air supply, solar )enerated electricity, 'ater supply, 'aste disposal

ser ices, and others As acti ities in or/it expand pro)ressi ely, they could )ro' to include use of materials extracted from theDoon and near+;arth asteroids and cometoids, of 'hich the potential has /een researched for se eral decades P$$Q :ue to themuch hi)her cost of acti ities in or/it than on the surface of the ;arth, or/itin) hotels seem likely to createthe first market for non+terrestrial materials like ice, 'ater, oxy)en and hydro)en, as discussed in P$%Q

Another potentially major space+/ased industry, 'hich has /een held /ack for 4* years /y hi)h launchcosts, is the supply of solar po'er from space to ;arth Althou)h the potential of this system 'as reco)nised in studies/y the US :epartment of ;ner)y in the late $!#*s, and confirmed in the $!!*s P$FQ, total fundin) has remained minimal >o'e er,pro)ress could /e rapid once launch costs fall to a fe' percent of ;6V costs P$4Q >ence, as passen)er spacetra el acti ities expand to lar)e scale, a )ro'in) ran)e of manufacturin) acti ities in ;arth or/it, on the lunar surface and else'herecould de elop spontaneously, dri en /y entrepreneurial effort to exploit ne' /usiness opportunities opened up /y the )ro'th of ne'commercial markets in ;arth or/it 0hese 'ill in turn open the door to the lar)e+scale space acti ities descri/ed in P$$Q 0he)ro'th of or/ital passen)er space tra el to se eral million passen)ers"year o er a fe' decades 'ouldrepresent a direct commercial turno er of some $** /illion ;uros"year 8n such a scenario of rapid )ro'th,annual in estment in ne' facilities, research and de elopment mi)ht add the same amount a)ain 8ndeed,ha in) reached such a scale, there 'ould /e no foreseea/le limit to further )ro'thLin particular it need not /e l imited, like terrestrialacti ities, /y en ironmental or political constraints uite apart from the numerous opportunities 'hich such a scenario offers for)ro'th of the space industry, it also offers )reat potential /enefits for humanity, in se eral different fields, as discussed in turn in thefollo'in) % ;mployment 8n most countries, most of the population do not ha e economically si)nificant land holdin)s, and soemployment is the economic /asis of social life, pro idin) income and ena/lin) people to ha e sta/le family li es 0he hi)h le el ofunemployment in most countries today is therefore not only 'asteful, it also causes 'idespread po erty and unhappiness, and issocially dama)in), creatin) further pro/lems for the future 9ne reason for in estin) in the de elopment of passen)erspace tra el, therefore, is that it could create major ne' fields of employment, capa/le of )ro'in) as farinto the future as 'e can see As of %**$, the hotel, caterin) and tourism sector 'as estimated to employ * million people'orld+'ide, or F of the )lo/al 'orkforce, and of ;uropeans P$BQ >ence 'e can estimate that the passen)er air tra el industry,includin) airlines, airports, hotels and other tourismrelated 'ork, indirectly employs $*7%* times the num/er of people employed inaircraft manufacturin) alone 6ike'ise, passen)er space tra el ser ices could presuma/ly create employment many times that inlaunch ehicle manufacturin)Lin ehicle operations and maintenance, at spaceports, in or/itin) hotels, in many companiessupplyin) these, in ser ices such as staff trainin), certification and insurance, and in a )ro'in) ran)e of related /usinesses 0hispossi/ility is particularly alua/le /ecause hi)h unemployment, /oth in richer and poorer countries, has /een the major economicpro/lem throu)hout the 'orld for decades Conse1uently the )ro'th of such a major ne' market for ad anced

aerospace technolo)y and ser ices seems hi)hly desira/le , as discussed further in P$ Q 3y contrast, in recent yearsemployment in the traditional space industry in USA and ;urope has /een shrinkin) fast& a %**F report /y the US o'e er, reducin) the num/er of employees throu)h impro in) producti ity raisesunemployment, except to the extent that ne' jo/s are created in ne' and )ro'in) industries 8n an economy'ith a lack of ne' industries, increasin) so+called economic efficiency creates unemployment, 'hich is a social cost 8n thissituation, )o ernments concerned for pu/lic 'elfare should either increase the rate of creation of ne' industries, and"or slo' theelimination of jo/s, at least until the )ro'th of ne' industries re i es, or other desira/le counter+measures, such as ne' socialarran)ements, are introduced 0hese may include more leisure time, jo/+sharin), and other policies desi)ned to pre ent the )ro'thof a permanent under+class of unemployed and 'orkin) poor La de elopment 'hich 'ould pose a major threat to 'esternci ilisation

Contention 7 is Gut a)ay the offcase

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Nuclear armed states wont go to warall states are rational%e erman H (Eonathan, deputy editor of 5e's'eek international, 6earnin) to 6o e 0he 3om/?9/ama 'ants to rid the 'orld of nuclear 'eapons @hy that mi)ht /e a /i) mistake, -

0he ar)ument that nuclear 'eapons can /e a)ents of peace as 'ell as destruction rests on t'o decepti ely simple o/ser ationsiroshima 8tIs strikin) and a)ainst all historical precedent that for thatsu/stantial period, there has not /een any 'ar amon) nuclear states 0o understand 'hyLand 'hy the next 4years are likely to play out the same 'ayLyou need to start /y reco)nizin) that all states are rational on some /asic le el0heir leaders may /e stupid, petty, enal, e en e il, /ut they tend to do thin)s only 'hen theyIre prettysure they can )et a'ay 'ith them 0ake 'ar& a country 'ill start a fi)ht only 'hen itIs almost certain it can)et 'hat it 'ants at an accepta/le price 5ot e en >itler or Saddam 'a)ed 'ars they didnIt think theycould 'in 0he pro/lem historically has /een that leaders often make the 'ron) )am/le andunderestimate the other side Land millions of innocents pay the price 5uclear 'eapons chan)e all that /ymakin) the costs of 'ar o/ ious, ine ita/le, and unaccepta/le Suddenly, 'hen /oth sides ha e the a/ility to turnthe other to ashes 'ith the push of a /uttonLand e ery/ody kno's itL the /asic math shifts ; en the craziest tin+pot

dictator is forced to accept that 'ar 'ith a nuclear state is un'inna/le and thus not 'orth the effort As@altz puts it, @hy fi)ht if you canIt 'in and mi)ht lose e erythin)= @hy indeed= 0he iron lo)ic of deterrenceand mutually assured destruction is so compellin), itIs led to 'hatIs kno'n as the nuclear peace & the

irtually unprecedented stretch since the end of @orld @ar 88 in 'hich all the 'orldIs major po'ers ha e a oided comin) to /lo's0hey did fi)ht proxy 'ars, ran)in) from Jorea to Vietnam to An)ola to 6atin America 3ut these ne er matched the furiousdestruction of full+on, )reat+po'er 'ar (@orld @ar 88 alone 'as responsi/le for some B* million to #* million deaths- And sincethe end of the Cold @ar, such /loodshed has declined precipitou s ly Dean'hile , the nuclear po'ers ha escrupulously a oided direct com/at, and thereIs ery )ood reason to think they al'ays 'ill 0here ha e/een some near misses, /ut a close look at these cases is fundamentally reassurin)L/ecause in eachinstance, ery different leaders all came to the same safe conclusion 0ake the mother of all nuclearstandoffs& the Cu/an missile crisis


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'ithin )o ernment 0his is the idea that nuclear 'ar mi)ht /e erroneously tri))ered , or erroneously 'idened,throu)h a state under attack misreadin) either 'hat sort of attack it 'as /ein) su/jected to, or 'here the attack came from 0hepostulated misreadin) of the nature of the attack referred in particular to the hypothesis that if a deli erysystem +normally a missile+that 'as kno'n to /e capa/le of carryin) either a nuclear or a con entional 'arhead 'as launchedin a con entional role, the tar)et country mi)ht, on detectin) the launch throu)h its early 'arnin) systems,misconstrue the mission as an imminent nuclear strike and immediately unleash a nuclear counter+strike

of its o'n 0his conjecture 'as oiced, for example, as a criticism of the proposals for )i in) the US 0rident S63D, lon)associated 'ith nuclear missions, a capa/ility to deli er con entional 'arheads @hate er the merit of those proposals (it is notexplored here-, it is hard to re,ard this articular a rehension as havin, any real -life credibility 0hefli)ht time of a /allistic missile 'ould not exceed a/out thirty minutes, and that of a cruise missile a fe' hours, /efore arri al ontar)et made its character+con entional or nuclear+unmistaka/le 5o )o ernment 'ill need , and no non lunatic )o ernmentcould 'ish, to take 'ithin so short a span of time a step as enormous and irre oca/le as the execution of anuclear strike on the /asis of early+'arnin) information alone 'ithout kno'in) the true nature of theincomin) attack 0he speculation tends moreo er to /e expressed 'ithout reference either to any realisticpolitical or conflict+related context thou)h to render the episode plausi/le, or to the manifest interest of thelaunchin) country, should there /e any risk of dou/t, in endurin)+ that there 'as no misinterpretation of itscon entionally armed launch

Nuclear Winter is false

$lade H11 (Stuart, senior aerospace and defense analyst at a US+/ased defense think tank, 5uclear@inter 8s 3unk, http&""'arre ie' /lo)spot com"%*$$"*4"nuclear+'inter+is+/unk html-

3unk is a pretty fair description (of nuclear 'inter- 0he nuclear 'inter theory 'as predicated on a series ofhypothetical models that had /een constructed /y a )roup of concerned scientists lead /y Carl Sa)an 'ho constructed acomputerized model of earth, cranked in a series of hypothetical statistics on the effects of nuclear 'eapons and then claimedthat the results from that model constituted facts 0here 'ere a num/er of serious pro/lems 'ith thisprocess 9ne of them 'as that, 'hen the hypothetical effects of nuclear initiations 'ere cranked intoother models of earth, they didnIt produce the results Sa)an had reported 8n fact, the results reported /ySa)anIs )roup 'ere only achie ed 'hen his particular model of the earth 'as used 0his 'as aremarka/le thin) so people looked at Sa)anIs model to see ho' it differed from the rest 0he ans'er turnedout to /e 1uite simple 0he model Sa)an had sho'n to the 'orld press to pro e the dan)er of nuclear'inter, depicted the earth as /ein) a /arren /all of rock 'ith no mountains and no oceans 9ceans, asSa)an 'ell kne', act as )i)antic ener)y fly'heels that moderate temperature, helpin) cool adjacentcontinents in summer and 'arm them in 'inter Sa)an , in other 'ords , "no)in,ly committed deli/eratescientific fraud >e cooked up a phony computer model to concoct the phony nuclear 'inter results he 'anted for politicalreasons 8t su/se1uently /ecame apparent that he had a oided usin) the already+a aila/le 5CAR computer climate model precisely/ecause he kne' it 'ould not produce the nuclear 'inter he 'anted to sell to )ulli/le journalists and an i)norant pu/lic 9ncethat point had /een realized, Sa)anIs assumptions 'ere examined in )reater depth 8t turned out thatnone of the people in his )roup of concerned scientists 'ere nuclear 'eapons experts @hat theyIddone 'as taken some )eneralist pu/lic sources, cherry+picked the ones that suited them and used them'ithout examinin) ho' the arious nuclear 'eapons effects interacted A)ain, there 'as a healthy dollop ofdeli/erate scientific fraud here @here effects didnIt )i e the results re1uired, they 'ere exa)errated or morphed until they did 3ythe time the criti1ue 'as o er, nuclear 'inter as a concept 'as totally discredited? today its a touchstone 8f some/ody starts tospout forth on the dan)ers of nuclear 'inter theyIre nutcases Sa)anIs credi/ility ne er reco ered? he ne er )otanother hearin) from the serious nuclear 'eapons and policy community >o'e er, one useful thin) didcome out of all this 8n order to examine the pro/a/ility of Sa)anIs fairy stories, people cranked real data on nuclear 'eapons into real atmospheric models 0he results 'ere actually 1uite interestin) (there is a no el currently/ein) posted in >HCA called An il of 5ecessity 'hich dra's on that 'ork-


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nukes are needed to destroy humanity= $G, $#,B**km%"$4 !km% X $,%4$,$ 5ukes re1uired tocompletely 'ipe out ci ilization @e ha e $*,%%# 8 'asn2t expectin) that @e only actually ha e * GF of 'hat2sre1uired to completely 'ipe out ci ilisation @e couldn2t do it if 'e 'anted to $* years a)o 'e had F%,B$% nuclear'eapons 0hat2s a much /etter % Kod damn you 5on+5uclear Hroliferation HactW Ah /ut 'e all li e in cities no' 8 tried to reco er aeye+poppin) stat 'ith another 1uick calc B* of us li e in densely populated cities no' Day/e 'e could 'ipe out allcity+d'ellin) humanity .;SW 5ope Still no )ood !!,%!F hea y duty nukes re1uired to 'ipe out the 'orld2s city

d'ellers (B* of 'orld population-Unexpectedly, in makin) this ima)e, the data forced me to chan)e my mind 8n this case,

itexposed the myth in my head, scorched lon) a)o into my childhood ima)ination 0he scene of manyni)htmares 0hat nuclear 'eapons could kill e erythin) Could 'ipe out ci ilisation 5o dou/t, nuclear 'eaponsare crazy de ices 8n the hands of mad people and mad re)imes, they ha e a ni)htmarish potential for de astation 3ut they are notthe end of humanity As the data re eals, 'e simply don2t ha e enou)h of them

Extinction of the species uniquely outweighs everything$chell6 :2 (Eonathan, Hrofessor at @esleyan Uni ersity, 0he ects , and this, in turn, is another 'ayof sayin) that e.tinction is a second death , for oneIs o'n indi idual death is the end not of any o/ject in life /ut of the sub>ect thate. eriences all ob>ects :eath, ho'+ e er, places the mind in a 1uandary 9ne of+the confoundin) char+ acteristics ofdeath+ tomorro'Is zero, in :ostoe skiIs phrase+is that, precisely /ecause it remo es the person himself rather than somethin) inhis life, it seems to offer the mind nothin) to take hold of 9ne e en feels it inappropriate, in a 'ay, to try to speak a/out death atall, as thou)h death 'ere a thin) situated some+ 'here outside us and a aila/le for o/jecti e inspection, 'hen the fact is that it is'ithin us+is, indeed, an essential part of 'hat 'e are 8t 'ould /e more appropriate, perhaps, to say that death, as a fundamentalelement of our /ein), thinks in us and throu)h us a/out 'hate er 'e think a/out, colorin) our thou)hts and moods 'ith itspresence throu)hout our li es

conomic decline doesn?t cause )ar- refer consensus%I5 10 Hh : in Holitical Science, Uni ersity of 8llinois at Ur/ana+Champai)n and is an Associate Hrofessor in the :epartment of8nternational Affairs at the Uni ersity of Keor)ia(0ir Earosla , 0he Eournal of Holitics, 0erritorial :i ersion& :i ersionary 0heory of @ar and 0erritorial Conflict , %*$*, Volume #%&4$F+4%B, >opkins-

;mpirical support for the economic )ro'th rate is much 'eaker 0he findin) that poor economicperformance is associated 'ith a hi)her likelihood of territorial conflict initiation is si)nificant only inDodels F74 $4 0he 'eak results are not alto)ether surprisin) )i en the findin)s from prior literature 8naccordance 'ith the insi)nificant relationships of Dodels $7% and B7 , 9strom and Eo/ ( $!G -, for example, note that thelikelihood that a U S Hresident 'ill use force is uncertain, as t he /ad economy mi)ht create incenti es/oth to di ert the pu/lic2s attention 'ith a forei)n ad enture and to focus on sol in) the economicpro/lem, thus reducin) the inclination to act a/road Similarly,


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economic conditions as do Hickerin) and Jisan)ani (%**B- and Russett and 9neal (%**$- in )lo/al studies 8ncontrast and more in line 'ith my findin)s of a si)nificant relationship (in Dodels F74-, >ess and 9rphanides ( $!!B- , for example,ar)ue that economic recessions are linked 'ith forceful action /y an incum/ent U S president errid)e of unt for Al+ aeda2s American Recruits@hat 8 sa' from >errid)e and the audience 'as a oracious appetite for claims of Duslim American su/ ersion tin)ed 'ith a faint,/ut trou/lin) 'illin)ness to en)a)e in !"$$ conspiracy speculation 0he lion2s share of >errid)e2s talk 'as de oted to the acti ities of

An'ar al+Aula1i, the 5e' Dexico+/orn ci il en)ineerin) student turned radical Al+ aeda cleric Aula1i is one of the most acti eradical Duslim clerics in the Diddle ;ast >e releases foota)e of his extremist sermons on a re)ular /asis and is currently allied 'ith

Al aeda in the Ara/ian Heninsula in .emen 0he U S )o ernment has placed Aula1i on its list of )lo/al terrorists to /e killed'ithout trial 3ut >errid)e /elie es that the )o ernment is doin) too little too late She explained that the intelli)ence communityo erlooked his role in the !"$$ attacks and is no' tryin) to co er up their failure to address his radicalization 8n one instance, she

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http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref69http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref73http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref38http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref24http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref34http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref19http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref66http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref72http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref49http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref84http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#fn15http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_A%26M_Universityhttp://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.7http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref69http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref73http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref38http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref24http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref34http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref19http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref66http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref72http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref49http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#ref84http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=6&fid=7418116&jid=JOP&volumeId=72&issueId=02&aid=7418112&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022381609990879#fn15http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_A%26M_Universityhttp://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.7


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said, Aula1i 'as taken into custody only to /e released 'ithout char)e 0his e ent is like a /om/ 'aitin) to /e tri))ered 82 espoken to people on the >ill a/out this 8 ha e spoken to people 'ithin the )o ernment a/out this, and it2s just 'hat 8 call \crickets,2radio silence, >errid)e said >errid)e uses a some'hat fluid standard of proof for her char)es, one that ran)es from official arrest'arrants to the presence of too many coincidences 5onetheless, she held Aula1i up as an example of Al+ aeda % *, a socialmedia+sa y, lar)ely American+/orn incarnation of )lo/al jihad 0here al'ays seem to /e his fin)erprints on these plots, she said

Accordin) to >errid)e, these ne' terrorists are the di)ital jihadist errid)e disa)rees 'ith the premise of the 1uestion Accordin) to her, the recent ineptitude of 8slamicterrorism is not a triumph of our national security apparatus, /ut a tactical shift of 'hich 'e must /e especially 'ary 0here has/een a shift Hart of that has /een /y desi)n /ecause 'e2 e /ecome /etter at pullin) a strin) and unra elin) these thin)s, /ut itdoesn2t make them less important, she told


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species at lo' density may /e less suscepti/le to a disease out/reak, reco ery to hi)her densities places them at increasin) risk offuture disease+related decline (e ) , southern sea otters? Ker/er ct al %**4- 8n the a/sence of stochastic factors (such as thosemodeled in HVA-, and )i en the usual assumption of disease models that the chance that a suscepti/le host 'ill /ecomeinfected is proportional to the density of infected hosts (the mass action assumption- a host specific patho)encannot drive its host to e.tinction (DcCallum and :o/son $!!B- ;xtinction in the a/sence of stochasticity is possi/le ifalternate hosts (sometimes called reser oir hosts- relax the extent to 'hich transmission depends on the density of the endan)eredhost species

China has no lans to escalate )ar to a nuclear levelEames ulvenon , Vice+Hresident of :efense Kroup, 8nc ]s 8ntelli)ence :i ision, 0RA5: Corporation, Chinese Responses to U S Dilitary 0ransformation and 8mplications for the :epartment of :efense , %** ,http&""''' rand or)"pu/s"mono)raphs"%** "RA5:MDKF4* pdf, P hen)Q

@hen Chinese strate)ists contemplate ho' to affect U S deployments , they confront the limitations oftheir current con entional force , 'hich does not ha e ran)e sufficient to interdict U S facilities or assets/eyond the Eapanese home islands 5uclear options , 'hile theoretically a aila/le, are nonetheless far tooescalatory to /e used so early in the conflict 0heater missile systems, 'hich are possi/ly mo in) to a mixture ofcon entional and nuclear 'arheads, could /e used a)ainst Eapan or Kuam, /ut uncertainties a/out the nature of a )i en 'arhead'ould likely )enerate responses similar to the nuclear scenario Accordin) to the predicta/le cadre of true /elie ers, /oth of thecenters of )ra ity identified a/o e can /e attacked usin) computer net'ork operations (C59- 8n the first case, the Chineseinformation operations (89- community /elie es that C59 'ill play a useful psycholo)ical role in underminin) the 'ill of the0ai'anese people /y attackin) infrastructure and economic itality 8n the second case, the Chinese 89 community en isions C59

effecti ely deterrin) or delayin) U S inter ention and causin) pain sufficient to compel 0aipei to capitulate /efore the United Statesarri es 0he remainder of this section outlines ho' these 89 theorists propose operationalizin) such a strate)y

%he nuclear domino has never fallen < multi le e.am lesEohan er,enas Research Associate at >enry 6 Stimson Center 10Council 9f

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