1950: 2.5 billion people. 2000: 6 billion people.
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Transcript of 1950: 2.5 billion people. 2000: 6 billion people.
1950: 2.5 billion people
2000: 6 billion people
2050: 9.2 billion people
The top 8 commodities, such as corn, wheat, soy and rice, provide
more than 80% of human calories.
All commodities have followed the same basic pattern.
yields
prices
These patterns put more marginal land into production -- and increase the use of chemicals, fossil fuels, and water.
1950 2000
Global Fertilizer Use
Since 1945, severe or extreme soil degradation has affected an area larger than India and China.
Stark warning that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted:
Recommends radical changes in the way nature is treated at every level of decision-making.
Source: Living Beyond Our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-Being. Statement from the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. March 2005
THE UN MILENNIUM ASSESSMENT, 2005
“Resilience and abundance can no longer be confused with indestructibility and infinite supply.”
1
Limits To Growth Study, 1972 & 2004
Natural Resources
Industrial Output
Food
Population
Pollution
Source: Dennis Meadows, 2004
MODERN DAY MYTHS
The earth is a subsidiary of
our economies
The earth has infinite
resilience and productivity to
meet whatever
humans need
“Externalities” are real, but
because they are not on our
P&Ls or Balance Sheets, they don’t exist and no one is accountable.
USA WASTES MORE ENERGY THAT JAPAN USES …… WORLD’S 3RD LARGEST GDP
‘HUBBERT’S PEAK IS NEAR OR HERE’
COST OF OIL 1978 - 2008
Average Cost of Crude Oil
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Pri
ce p
er B
arre
l (U
SD)
STATE OF THE WORLD 2008: WAVES OF INNOVATION
RENEWABLE ENERGY COST TRENDSLevelized cost of energy in constant 2005$
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. DRAFT November 2005
Cost of OilIn cents/kwh
MilkPackagingFinished
Product
Transport
Facility Energy
Use
Transport
to/from
Processors &
Copackers
Employee
Commute
Business
Travel
SugarFruit & Flavors,
Other
Waste Disposal
STONYFIELD FARM GHG EMISSIONSM
etric To
ns C
O2
RE-MOOABLE ENERGY
Wanner Dairy FarmNavron, Pennsylvania, USA
Anaerobic digester for manure from 600 cows feeds an electric generator
Environmental benefits:Avoids methane emissions from manureReplaces local coal-generated electricity Eliminates propane and oil use on the farmProvides watershed protection from reduced runoff
Economic benefits to the farm:Two new commodities for sale: electricity & carbon offsets Financial credits for reduced runoffReduced and predictable on-farm heat and power costsDigested and dried manure reduces animal bedding costs Positive PR value for the farm
Sustainable agricultural practices– Cane is green harvested, not burned
– Waste streams from production recycled for soil building or power generation
– Biological pest control program uses beneficial insects and natural predators
– Fields reconfigured to prevent soil erosion
Payoffs– Green harvesting saves 40K tonnes CO2/yr & 3.5 million liters water/hr at mill
– 90% reduction in pest damage
– Increased biodiversity (189 species of birds, reptiles, and mammals)
– Increasing groundwater quality and volume
BRAZIL SUGAR: A BIG ECOLOGICAL AND FINANCIAL SUCCESS STORY
10% increase in yields & 50%
reduction in cost premium in 5 years
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00$22.87
$22.50$22.00
$14.00
$12.32
$11.88
$14.30 $14.43
$15.14
$15.56
$16.98
$17.35 $17.53$18.20
$20.00
$12.37
$11.06
$11.80 $11.83 $12.05
$12.71
$13.74
$12.07
$13.00
$14.20
$10.57 $10.97
$14.00
Comparing Organic vs Conventional Pay Price
Organic Milk Conventional Milk Org. Milk Budget. 07 Conv. Milk Budget 07