140504 SA outlook chinese for Johannesburg Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce
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Transcript of 140504 SA outlook chinese for Johannesburg Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce
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德博
主講人:葉人豪 Kevin Yeh
德博保險理財公司董事長
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德博
世界貨幣組織2014年經濟預測
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德博
世界貨幣組織2014年經濟預測
南非: 2.3%
奈及利亞:7.1%
莫桑比克:8.3%
尚比亞: 7.3%
波茨瓦納:4.1%
賴索托: 5.6%
安哥拉: 5.3%
肯亞: 6.3%
伊索比亞:7.5%
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德博
南非過去20年的成就
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德博
南非國內生產總值成長率
過去20年平均值3.2%
預測
資料來源:Stanlib
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德博
國內生產總值與人口成長對比
人口成長
GDP成長
資料來源:Stanlib
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德博
人均國內生產總值
資料來源:Stanlib
南非被歸類為中上收入國家 美元/人
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德博
財富分配
資料來源:Oxfam
< ~ ~ >
成人人口百分比%
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德博
南非是全世界最貧富不均的國家
資料來源:Oxfam
底層20% 頂層10%
家庭收入%
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德博
南非所得稅基非常狹窄
少於5%的勞動人口付超過50%的個人所得稅
85.9萬納稅人繳53%的南非個人所得稅
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德博
南非官方失業率
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德博
極高青年人失業人口
2012年有107萬孩童第一次就學
不包含已放棄尋找工作人口
包含已放棄尋找工作人口
2013年底 2013年底
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德博
南非出口值(黃金除外) 占GDP百分比
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德博
外國人士購買南非債券和股票
十億美元計
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德博
南非外匯儲備
十億美元計
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德博
南非旅遊收入
2010世足賽 10億蘭特計
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德博
南非政府債務占GDP百分比
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德博
個人所得稅率下降
個人年所得(千蘭特)
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德博
預算開放度
南非全世界排名第二
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德博
平均通貨膨脹率
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德博
政府預算中償債百分比
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德博
南非新接電家庭
百萬家庭計
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德博
自來水用戶
547萬家庭 1060萬家庭
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德博
政府建房
百萬房計
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德博
社會福利津貼登記人數
有史以來第一次人數減少
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德博
學生免費就學比例
近60%學生不用付學費
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德博
沒有高中畢業文憑的人口比例
年齡
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德博
南非鐵路運輸容量急劇下滑
指數
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德博
南非港口集裝箱費用居世界之冠
德本
開普敦
新加坡 高雄
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德博
南非道路網老舊待修
近70%道路已超過25年舊
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德博
南非公家醫院床位不增反減
公立床位數量 私立床位數量
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德博
南非做生意容易度全球排名
• 註冊公司:64名
• 執行合同:80名
• 房產登記:99名
• 跨境貿易:106名
• 取得電力:150名
• 總計:41名
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德博
非洲網路速度前15名
MB每秒
南非居非洲第25,
全世界第120名
台灣全球第8,每秒42.7MB
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德博
南非重大抗議政府服務不彰次數
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德博
南非政府債務占GDP百分比
從2009年開始節節高升
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德博
南非政府投資成長率驟降
%
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德博
南非投資占GDP比重
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德博
水電供應
• 南非有800個汙水處理站,但230個瀕臨隨時損壞狀況
• 電力需求每年持續增加,南非電力供應未來10~15年將無法滿足需求
• 南非主流媒體報導,由於約堡人口成長,供水不足,可能明年開始限水
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德博
南非所需解決方案
1. 利用公家與私人合作模式,提升基礎建設,如水,電,港口,道路。
2. 發展人民技術技能,提供專業訓練(黑手)
3. 放鬆對企業管制,放鬆勞工政策,促進中小企業
4. 科技發展,提升網路速度
5. 鼓勵與其他非洲國家貿易,經商,投資
來源:Stanlib
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德博
南非未來發展道路
政府必須有魄力執行國家發展計畫
大膽投資成長 “給人民撒錢”
營建 物流 科技 教育 銀行 通訊 房地產
南非幣貶值 通貨膨脹
民生消費品 運輸 通訊
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德博
尋找商機例一
水
建水庫
社區蓄水系統
污水處理系統
工業蓄水系統
水管維修 汙水處理設備維修
家庭用淨水器
飲用水 融資
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德博
尋找商機例二
道路
造路造橋
紅綠燈系統
紅綠燈維修
建材供應
道路標誌
路燈維修
道路維修
道路維修設備及車
輛 融資