1226A: iQue on IBM BlueMix can increase your TM1 forecast accuracy · 2017-05-18 · 1226A: iQue on...
Transcript of 1226A: iQue on IBM BlueMix can increase your TM1 forecast accuracy · 2017-05-18 · 1226A: iQue on...
1226A: iQue on IBM BlueMixcan increase your TM1 forecast accuracy
Michael CowieDallas Crawford
QueBIT Consulting, LLC
Mike Cowie, Director of Strategic Solutions, QueBIT
@Michael_D_Cowie
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cowiemichael
Dallas Crawford, Senior Sales Executive, QueBIT
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dallas-crawford-mba-446a759
Presenting Today
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Agenda
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• About QueBIT
• What is iQue?
• What are predictive demand planning & Euclid?
• How to get started with predictive solutions & iQue
• Q & A
What you will learn today
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1. Learn about IBM BlueMix, web services and why we created the iQueConnector
2. Learn how your forecasts can benefit from data science & predictive demand planning
3. Learn about QueBIT’s Euclid engine and predictive solutions
4. Some demonstrations to show you what’s possible
5. QueBIT’s vision for the future:
• Integrating web services and other solutions with TM1
• Leveraging advanced analytics in TM1
Reach out to QueBIT at Vision
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• On Twitter
• #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1
• Expo hall:
• Booth #11
• More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue
• Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
• http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
About QueBIT
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• Focused on all things Analytics
• Analytics Consulting Services
• Project Implementations• Staff Augmentation/Managed Services
• Software Reseller and Development Company
• 16 years in business with managers on the team who have been working in analytics for 20+ years
• Operating Nationally in the United States of America
• 900+ successful implementations in finance, sales, marketing and operations (50+ new analytics implementations over the past 12 months)
• 400+ analytics customers; all industries
• 90 employees
• Development of Analytics Solutions such as Predictive Insurance Claims Subrogation, Predictive Demand Planning and Predictive Assortment Planning
• Delivering Analytics On-Premise and in The Cloud
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About QueBIT
Trusted Experts in Analytics
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• 50+ Financial Analytics Projects a year
• Delivered with IBM Planning Analytics/TM1 on Premise or in the Cloud
• Financial Consolidations and Reporting
• Revenue and Expense Planning
• Operations and Workforce Planning
• Capital Planning
• Profitability Analytics
• Etc.
Financial & Operational Performance Management
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• CloudWORQ: Pre-built TM1 solutions designed to integrate with TM1 Cloud, based on proven QueBIT TM1 models, such as expense, workforce & sales planning
• ControlWORQ: Excel & Web-based Financial Consolidations with TM1 (journals, eliminations, etc)
• ReportWORQ: Report bursting and distribution solution for TM1
• WebWORQ: Web application development for TM1, including dashboard and visualization capabilities
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QueBIT FrameWORQSolutions
• Dozens of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics project a year
• Dramatic ROI
• Solution Focus • Galileo – Predictive Demand Planning
• Orion – Predictive Assortment Planning
• Athens – Predictive Claims Subrogation
• Predictive Price Optimization
• IOT Analytics
• Predictive Maintenance
• Predictive Customer Intelligence
• Scheduling Optimization
• Data Scientist for Rent!
Advanced Analytics
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• Cognos Analytics Reporting & Analysis
• Dashboarding – KPIs/Scorecards
• Production Reporting
• Sales
• Supply Chain
• Operations
• 75% of clients now claim they are moving to Mobile BI
• Data Warehousing and Big Data
• QueBIT can help with Data Strategy
BI and Data Management
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What is iQue
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TM1
Flat Files
ODBC & ODBO
TM1 Views/Subsets
Package Connector
Execute Command
Java Extensions
What can we see & do from a TM1 Server?
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Cloud & On Prem
On Prem Only
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But… what about?
• Non-ODBC data sources
• External applications & services: Data
• Weather, Markets, Twitter, etc.
• External applications & services
• Watson, Messaging, Monitoring
• Anything found in IBM BlueMix & similar platforms
• https://console.ng.bluemix.net/catalog/?category=services
What is iQue
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TM
1 R
ES
T A
PI
3rd
Pa
rty S
DK
s, A
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tc.
• Wizards to help define connections & mappings between TM1 instances and 3rd party services
• Connectors that can be used to execute those saved connection and mapping definitions
• Current support for: • QueBIT’s time series forecasting engine (Euclid)
• SMS messaging
• Future support: Customer requests/demand (e.g., Watson & other BlueMixservices)
What is iQue
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Demo
Texting while TM1’ing
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What is Predictive Demand Planning?
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• Collaboration of data science (predictive modeling/forecasting), sales, inventory management and finance
• Data science driven forecasts that maximize accuracy by leveraging causal data
• Forecast Value Add metrics/alerts that identify potential issues quickly/efficiently
• Collaborative environment where sales, inventory management and finance can work together to optimize inventory levels, model P&L impacts and perform “what if” scenario testing
What is Predictive Demand Planning?
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• Traditional Demand Planning Solutions:• Are based on naïve seasonality and trend forecasting techniques and
do not include causal data such as weather, pricing, promotions, macro-economics effects
• Struggle with new items
• Struggle with low velocity items
• Present difficulties with changing drivers and structures within database
• Are not interactive and do not allow for “what if” scenario testing
• Are not truly collaborative: sales, IM and finance
Why would you need predictive demand planning?
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QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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Product sales by month – how do
predictive and traditional tools
compare?
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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Seasonality can be extracted by
removing the overall trend
The trend is decidedly non-linear and
drops off dramatically in 2014
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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But other forecasting tools assume
linearity and would create a trend
below (and then layer on seasonality)
The sales trend is highly correlated
with overall marketing spend –
therefore, we want to predict the past
(and future) demand trend using
marketing spend (and other
predictors)
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
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Our approach generates a more
realistic forecast by incorporating
causal data (such as marketing
spend)
What is Euclid?
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• Euclid is QueBIT’s native Java predictive modeling engine
• Extremely high performance (multi-threaded)
• Contains proven, unique QueBIT intellectual property (based on deep knowledge of data science)
• REST API that can be leveraged by TM1 using iQue
What is Euclid?
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Algorithms supported:
• Forecasting:• Seasonal Forecasting Model with Causal Predictors• ARIMA
• Clustering/Segmentation:• KMeans (with automatic # of clusters optimization)• KMedians
• Predictive Modeling:• Multiple Linear Regression• RandomForest• C5 Decision Trees• Logistic Regression• Deep Neural Networks
• Text Mining:• Latent Dirichlet Analysis (aka Topic Modeling)
What is Euclid?
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Availability:
• On-premise
• Hosted pay-as-you-go service
What is Euclid?
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Demo
Call the Euclid Predictive Demand Planning Engine from TM1
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• A set of dashboard pages created in Planning Analytics Workspace (PAW)
• How we define mappings from existing TM1 models to Euclid
• Execution of a pre-defined iQue package that calls QueBIT’s Euclid predictive demand planning engine:
• Approximately 100,000 data points consisting of historical weekly data (going back 2 year) and predictors (unit price, ad & digital spend) extracted from TM1 and sent to Euclid
• Euclid returned predictive forecast for the next 52 weeks along with a lower and upper confidence interval for the same period, which was then loaded into TM1
• Increased digital ad spend by 400%, re-ran Euclid prediction to see impact
What did you just see?
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Questions?
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• On Twitter
• #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1
• Expo hall:
• Booth #11
• More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue
• Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
• http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
Thank You!
Other Sessions with QueBIT• 1148 (Wed @ 11:15am): Leveraging Planning Analytics & CDM to streamline Financial Reporting and improve
Budgeting at Stein Mart
• 1095 (Wed @ 3:00pm): Prescriptive Analytics & CPLEX Decision Optimization and TM1 Dashboard: Combined
Planning Power at JLG Industries
• 1091 (Thurs @ 9:15am): Auditable Financial System for Government Contracting at Accenture Federal Serv
• 1220 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Planning Analytics: Working Alongside Hyperion for Operational Analytics at NiSource ices
• 1093 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Leveraging TM1 for Merchandise Planning at Tractor Supply Company
Be sure to stop by and visit us at Booth #11 and…
Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/