1/22/13 Testimony by Dr. Mark Seeley

7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Dr. Mark Seeley

1/24

How climate change

is playing out inMinnesota: Some data

and consequences inour own backyard

Dr. Mark Seeley

Extension Climatologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of MinnesotaMN Senate Environment and Energy

Committee

(Jan 22, 2013)


2/24

Topics to be covered

Perceptions of climate behavior related to infrastructure

Evidence of vulnerability

Data trends in three climate attributesCharacter change in precipitation

Simultaneous extremes

Impacts and consequences


3/24

Stationary (1)

Cyclical (2)

Variability (3)

Trend Shift (4)

Changnon et el

Perceptions of climate behavior

are built into the design of our

infrastructure (1,3)

Climate Science Fundamentals


4/24

Vulnerability and Consequences Remain Key Societal Issues

Implications for land use, building codes, insurance, and infrastructure

Nearly $1.0 trillion in losses from the past 32 years (current dollars)


5/24

RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS

IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES

TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLE SHIFTS

DEWPOINTS: CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR

MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),HIGHER FRACTIONAL THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION


6/24

Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the

90th

percentile

*


7/24

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN

1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean Change

January +3.0 +2.1 +2.5

February +0.1 +0.2 +0.1

March -0.1 -0.1 -0.2

April +1.3 +0.2 +0.7May +0.9 -0.8 +0.1

June +1.6 -0.4 +0.5

July +1.1 +0.2 +0.7

August +1.6 +0.4 +1.0September +1.3 +0.6 +1.0

October +1.7 -0.3 +0.7

November +2.1 +1.7 +1.9

December +2.2 +1.4 +1.8


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Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Willmar

1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean Change

January +3.4 +1.5 +2.9

February +0.8 +0.9 +0.8

March +0.9 +1.2 +1.0

April +0.7 +1.5 +1.1May +0.1 -0.1 NC

June +0.5 +0.2 +0.3

July +0.7 +0.5 +0.6

August +0.4 +0.7 +0.5September +0.9 +1.0 +0.9

October +0.5 +0.5 +0.5

November +1.3 +2.3 +1.7

December +2.1 +1.7 +1.8


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Amplified trends in average winter minimum

temperatures International Falls, MN

Period of Record

1951 - 1980

1961 - 1990

1971 - 2000

1981 - 2010

1951 - 1980

1961 - 1990

1971 - 2000

1981 - 2010

1951 - 1980

1961 - 1990

19712000

1981 - 2010

Ave Min Temp in Deg. F

Jan -11.0

Jan -8.4

Jan -8.3

Jan -6.6

Feb -4.8

Feb -0.7

Feb -0.6

Feb -1.3

Mar 8.9

Mar 12.3

Mar 12.6

Mar 12.5


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TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLES SHIFTS

DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR

MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION


11/24

Trend in dewpoints of 70 F or higher in the Twin Cities

Hours with dewpoints of

70 degrees F or higher

at Voyageurs National

Park

Latitude 45 degrees

Latitude 48.5 degrees


12/24

Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) andassociated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since 1945

Year Hours with DP of Range of Heat

70 F or greater Index Values (F)1949 223 98 - 112

1987 223 98 - 104

1955 206 98 - 113

1999 192 98 115 (116*)

1957 192 99 114

2001 182 98 - 110

1977 160 100 - 108

1983 157 102 - 110

1995 110 98 - 1162002 305 98 109

2004 108 98 - 105

2011 243 98 118 (*134)

2012 186 99 - 117


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1883, 1894, 1901,1910, 1917, 1921,

1931, 1933, 1934,

1936, 1937, 1947,

1948, 1949, 1955,1957, 1959, 1964,

1976, 1977, 1983,

1988, 1995,1999,

2001, 2005, 2006,2007, 2010, 2011,

2012

(pattern is episodic but

increasing in frequency)

Historical Minnesota

Heat Waves:

Red denotes dewpoint driven


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TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLES SHIFTS

DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR

MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION


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16/24

Change in Annual Precipitation

Normals at Willmar, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 23.01

1931-1960 24.471941-1970 27.63

1951-1980 27.71

1961-1990 28.21

1971-2000 28.231981-2010 29.46

28 percent increase since 1921-1950

period


17/24

Change in Annual Precipitation

Normals at Brainerd, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 23.03

1931-1960 24.681941-1970 25.59

1951-1980 26.02

1961-1990 26.40

1971-2000 27.55

1981-2010 28.38

23 percent increase since 1921-1950 period


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Hi t i l i t l f 2 i h i i th IA d th


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Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in northern IA and southern

MN is once per year.

Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991

2012 and maximum single day value for various

communities:Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)

Rosemount 42 5.80 (7/23/1987)Albert Lea 39 7.50 (6/15/1978)

Waseca 43 5.63 (9/23/2010)

Winona 35 4.95 (8/19/2007)

Zumbrota 43 6.46 (6/27/1998)Winnebago 41 8.64 (9/25/2005)

Bricelyn 39 9.22 (9/14/2004)

Amboy 36 9.48 (9/23/2010)

Hokah 33 15.10 (8/19/2007)


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Shift in Precipitation

RecurrenceIntervals?

Three 1000 year

events since 2004

(According to DNR-

State Climatology

Office)

Hi t i D ht


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1829, 1852, 1856

1863-1864, 1871-1872

1894, 1896, 1900,

1910, 1918, 1921-1923

1926, 1929-1934,

1936-1939, 1948,

1954-1956, 1961,

1976, 1980, 1984,

1987, 1988, 1997, 2005-

2006, 2007 2008

2009, 2010, 2011,2012

Historic Droughts(Associated fires)


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X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

XXX

X

X = 24 counties included in

USDA drought disaster

declaration of August 7, 2007

Note: adjacent 32 counties

were also eligible for

assistance

X= Counties included in

federal flood disaster

declaration of August20, 2007 and eligible

for FEMA assistance

Climate Singularity


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MN Counties

designated for

federal disaster

assistance in

2012

All areassociated with

drought except

those with

Which designatesfor flood or severe

storm


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Some Consequences of Climate Change

Longer growing seasons-change in plant hardiness zonesShorter duration of soil and lake freezing

Later fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)

Change in over winter survival rates of biological organisms

Change in fisheries management (stocking, fishing opener, etc)

Opportunities for invasive species (insects, pathogens, etc.)

Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)

Longer mold and allergen season (health care)

Amplified moisture variability-impacts on tile drainage, irrigation,

surface and ground water systems-growing list of impaired watersMore heat advisories and heat warnings (health care/livestock)

Increased risk of soil erosion

Work on flood mitigation and storm sewer runoff

1/22/13 Testimony by Dr. Mark Seeley

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