11-04-05 Argyle Traffic Study - North Florida...

Argyle Traffic StudyArgyle Traffic Study

North Florida Transportation Planning OrganizationArgyle Traffic Study

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Executive Summary The Argyle Forest area is a highly congested transportation area located in southern Duval County. SR 9A (I-295) and SR 21 (Blanding Boulevard) are regionally significant facilities within the area and experience severe traffic congestion. The section of Blanding Boulevard south of I-295 and the I-295 interchange with Blanding Boulevard are regularly reported as one of the most congested locations within the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization’s (North Florida TPO) region. In 2009, Florida Times-Union readers overwhelmingly picked Blanding and I-295 as the worst intersection in Northeast Florida in an unscientific survey. Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road are two minor arterials that provide access to I-295 and Blanding Boulevard from commercial and residential areas located to the west of Blanding Boulevard. Traffic circulates from these collectors to local streets using connections between Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road using Shindler Drive, Westport Road and Rampart Road. To the west, Old Middleburg Road/Oakleaf Plantation Parkway and SR 23 (Branan Field Chaffee Road) connect to rapidly developing areas in south Duval County and north Clay County. In 2010, construction will begin on a project to build collector-distributor roads and a new interchange at I-295 and Collins Road. This project, when completed, will result in a significant change in traffic patterns in the study area since travelers will have an alternate route to Blanding Boulevard via Collins Road to access I-295. The purpose of this project is to prepare a traffic circulation study to evaluate transportation network improvements in the Argyle Area including the following facilities: Parramore Road, Youngerman Circle, Collins Road, Rampart Road, Argyle Forest Boulevard. The study area includes an area bound by Collins Road, Blanding Boulevard, Argyle Forest Boulevard and Rampart Road. This study considers not only existing traffic operations and safety needs within the study area, but also evaluates alternatives for improvements to support the shift in traffic that is anticipated as a result of the opening of the I-295/Blanding Boulevard to Collins Road project. The purpose of this report is to summarize the needs identified through a review of the operational and safety data collected. Blanding Boulevard and Argyle Forest Boulevard are highly congested roadways with levels of service below the existing standard and significant crash histories observed on key locations. Other connecting roadways are significantly impacted by the congestion on these roadways. This queue spillback that forms during congested periods is significant such that the level of service alone does not fully capture the operational deficiencies in the area. The pedestrian and bicycle quality of service within the study area are deficient on several facilities. As part of providing a total mobility approach within this community, additional improvements to enhance multimodal transportation options should be considered. These improvements will also support the planned expansion of transit services within the area on Blanding Boulevard. All of the major facilities within the study area experienced crash rates above the statewide average for the facility type and area type with the exception of Argyle Forest Boulevard. However, several intersections of Argyle Forest Boulevard experienced significant crash rates. Ten fatal crashes occurred during the five latest

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Argyle Traffic Study

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years when data were available (2005-2009), and 1,525 crashes with injuries occurred. The most fatal and injury crashes occurred on Blanding Boulevard with four crashes involving a fatality and 536 crashes involving an injury. Three fatal crashes and 357 injury crashes occurred on Argyle Forest Boulevard. Factors that contribute to these deficiencies include the poor operating conditions and significant queue spillback from one intersection location to the next. When future conditions are analyzed with the proposed improvements to I-295 to construct a collector-distributor road and new interchange at Collins Road, significant shifts in traffic occur that provide some congestion relief to Blanding Boulevard and Argyle Forest, but also create additional deficiencies above the projects currently planned or under consideration. Blanding Boulevard within the I-295 interchange area was also a significant safety “hot spot” where a high crash frequency occurred. However, no additional improvements beyond those proposed through the I-295 collector-distributor/Collins Road interchange project are recommended for evaluation as part of this study. Based on the needs identified as part of this project, alternatives were evaluated and a series of potential projects are recommended. These projects include additional capacity improvements, short-term operational and safety improvements, enhanced enforcement and a public information and education campaign. A summary of the recommendations are provide in the table on the following page.

The next steps to implementing these strategies would be to program these projects in the Transportation Improvement Program or Unified Work Program.



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Summary of Recommendations

Strategy CostsCapacity Improvements

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard – (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)SR 23 to Old Middleburg Road

$12.1 million

Widen Old Middleburg Road – (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road

$6.5 million

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard – (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)Cheswick Oaks Avenue to SR 21

$46.7 million

Widen Youngerman Circle – (2-Lane to 4-Lane Facility)Argyle Forest Boulevard to Parramore Road

$4.1 million

Extend Collins Road – (New 4-Lane Facility)Old Middleburg Road to SR 23 (New interchange at SR 23)

$64.4 million

Extend Wells Road – (New 4-Lane Facility)Blanding Boulevard to Argyle Forest Boulevard

$36.8 million

Subtotal $170.6 million

Short-Term Operational And Safety Improvements Removal of landscaping at various intersections to enhance sight distance

$35,000

Traffic signal phasing to restrict permitted left-turn movements and right-turn on red movements

$105,000

Deploy interconnected signal network $300,000Enhanced enforcement $15,000Aggressive driving public information and education campaign $150,000Subtotal $605,000



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Contents 1. Background ............................................................................................ 1 2. Purpose ................................................................................................. 3 3. Related Projects ..................................................................................... 3

3.1 Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) ...................................... 3 3.2 Better Jacksonville Plan/City of Jacksonville Projects ............................ 5 3.3 Jacksonville Transportation Authority .................................................. 5

4. Traffic ................................................................................................... 6 4.1 Traffic Data Collection ....................................................................... 6 4.2 Segment Analysis .............................................................................. 6 4.3 Intersection LOS Analysis ................................................................. 11

4.3.1 Balanced Delay Method ............................................................ 11 4.3.2 Optimization Method ................................................................ 14

5. Safety Analysis ...................................................................................... 18 6. Future Travel Demand ........................................................................... 25 7. Summary of Needs ................................................................................ 41 8. New Capacity Alternatives ...................................................................... 41 9. Short-Term Safety and Operational Alternatives ....................................... 46

9.1 Roadway Improvements ................................................................... 46 9.2 Arterial Traffic Management System Improvements ............................ 47 9.3 Traffic Signal Modifications ............................................................... 47 9.4 Targeted Enforcement ...................................................................... 49 9.5 Public Information Campaigns ........................................................... 50

10. Summary .............................................................................................. 51 11. Benefit Cost Analysis ............................................................................. 53 Appendix A – Traffic Data (On CD) Appendix B – SYNCHRO Analysis Reports (Balanced Delay Method) (On CD) Appendix C – SYNCHRO Analysis Reports (Optimization Method) (On CD) Appendix D – Capacity Improvement Cost Estimates (On CD) Appendix E – Intersection Sight Distance Diagrams (On CD) Appendix F – Intersection Warrant and Capacity Analysis (On CD) Appendix G – Crash Collision Diagrams (on CD) Appendix H – Benefit Cost Analysis (on CD)



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List of Figures 1. Study Area Map ...................................................................................... 2 2. Related Projects Map .............................................................................. 4 3. Existing Year 2010 AADT and Segment LOS .............................................. 8 4. Existing Year 2010 Pedestrian QOS .......................................................... 9 5. Existing Year 2010 Bicycle QOS .............................................................. 10 6. Crash Locations – Year 2005-2009 .......................................................... 22 7. Crash Severity – Year 2005-2009 ............................................................ 23 8. High Crash Locations – Year 2005-2009 .................................................. 24 9. NERPM Model Volumes – Base Model (Scenario 1) .................................... 28 10. NERPM Model Volumes – No-Build Model 1 (Scenario 2) ........................... 30 11. NERPM Model Volumes – No-Build Model 2 (Scenario 3A) ......................... 32 12. NERPM Model Volumes – No-Build Model 3 (Scenario 3B) ......................... 34 13. NERPM Model Volumes – Build Model (Scenario 4) ................................... 36 14. NERPM Model Volumes – Shift in Traffic Between Scenario 1 and 3B .......... 38 15. NERPM Model Volumes – Shift in Traffic Between Scenario 3A and 3B ........ 39 16. NERPM Model Volumes – Shift in Traffic Between Scenario 3B and 4 .......... 40 17. Proposed New Capacity Improvements .................................................... 43 18. Build Out Network ................................................................................. 44 19. Environmental Features Screening Map ................................................... 45

List of Tables 1. Related Projects List ............................................................................... 3 2. Statewide Minimum LOS Standards Applicable for This Project ................... 6 3. Existing Conditions – Vehicular, Bicycle and Pedestrian Q/LOS .................... 7 4. Existing Intersection LOS AM Peak Hour (Balanced Delay Method) ............. 12 5. Existing Intersection LOS PM Peak Hour (Balanced Delay Method) ............. 13 6. Movements with Queues Exceeding Capacity – AM Peak ........................... 14 7. Movements with Queues Exceeding Capacity – PM Peak ........................... 14 8. Existing Intersection LOS AM Peak Hour (Optimization Method) ................. 15 9. Existing Intersection LOS PM Peak Hour (Optimization Method) ................. 16 10. Comparison of the Analysis Methods – AM Peak ....................................... 17 11. Comparison of the Analysis Methods – PM Peak ....................................... 17 12. Summary of Crash Data ......................................................................... 19 13. Summary of Crash Severity .................................................................... 20 14. Screenline Comparison of Count and Model Data ...................................... 26 15. NERPM Model Volumes and LOS – Base Model (Scenario 1) ...................... 27 16. NERPM Model Volumes and LOS – No-Build Model 1 (Scenario 2) .............. 29 17. NERPM Model Volumes and LOS – No-Build Model 2 (Scenario 3A) ............ 31 18. NERPM Model Volumes and LOS – No-Build Model 3 (Scenario 3B) ............ 33 19. NERPM Model Volumes and LOS – Build Model (Scenario 4) ...................... 35 20. Comparison of 2035 Model Scenarios ...................................................... 37 21. Summary of Recommended Capacity Improvements Costs ........................ 42 22. Protected Left Turn Warrant Analysis ...................................................... 48 23. Level of Service Changes Before and After Safety Improvements ............... 49 24. Summary of Recommendations ............................................................... 52


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Argyle Traff ic Study Technical Memorandum #1 – Data Collection

1. Background Argyle Forest is a highly congested area in southern Duval County. SR 9A (I-295) and SR 21 (Blanding Boulevard) are regionally significant facilities within the area and experience severe traffic congestion. The section of Blanding Boulevard south of I-295 and the I-295 interchange with Blanding Boulevard are regularly reported as one of the most congested locations within the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization’s (North Florida TPO) region. In 2009, Florida Times-Union readers overwhelmingly picked Blanding and I-295 as the worst intersection in Northeast Florida in an unscientific survey.1 Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road are two minor arterials that provide access to I-295 and Blanding Boulevard from commercial and residential areas located to the west of Blanding Boulevard. Traffic circulates from these collectors to local streets using connections between Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road using Shindler Drive, Westport Road and Rampart Road. To the west, Old Middleburg Road/Oakleaf Plantation Parkway and SR 23 (Branan Field Chaffee Road) connect to rapidly developing areas in south Duval County and north Clay County. The project study area and roadway network is shown in Figure 1.

In 2010, construction began on a project to build collector-distributor roads and a new interchange at I-295 and Collins Road. This project, when completed, will result in a significant change in traffic patterns in the study area since travelers will have an alternate route to Blanding Boulevard via Collins Road to access I-295.

1 “Blanding at I-295 voted worst area intersection”, Florida Times-Union (Jacksonville) Saturday, December 19 2009

In 2009, Florida Times-Union readers overwhelmingly picked Blanding and I-295 as the worst intersection in Northeast Florida in an unscientific survey.

Argyle Forest Boulevard

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ARGYLE TRAFFIC STUDY

Study Area Map

Figure 1

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2. Purpose The purpose of this project is to prepare a traffic circulation study to evaluate transportation network improvements in the Argyle Area including the following facilities: Parramore Road, Youngerman Circle, Collins Road, Rampart Road, Argyle Forest Boulevard. The study area includes an area bound by Collins Road, Blanding Boulevard, Argyle Forest Boulevard and Rampart Road. This study will consider not only existing traffic operations and safety needs within the study area, but evaluate alternatives for improvements to support the shift in traffic that is anticipated as a result of the opening of the I-295/Blanding Boulevard to Collins Road project.

3. Related Projects Several projects are currently in design or construction within the project area. These projects will have a significant impact on traffic circulation within the study area. The following provides a summary of the status of each project. These projects are listed in Table 1 and shown in Figure 2.

Table 1. Related Projects List Map No.

Project Name Responsible Agency

Status

# 1 New I-295/Collins Road Interchange and Collector Distributor Lane System

FDOT Under construction

# 2 Well Road Extension PD&E Study FDOT Dropped after alternative public meeting

# 3 Collins Road (Blanding to Pine Verde) City of Jacksonville Design Phase # 4 Collins Road (Rampart to Shindler) City of Jacksonville Design Phase # 5 Parramore Road Extension (to

Youngerman Circle) City of Jacksonville Design Phase

# 6 Shindler Drive Phase 2 (Collins Road to 103rd Street)

City of Jacksonville Design Phase

# 7 Collins Road Phase 2 (Rampart Road to Blanding Boulevard)

City of Jacksonville Construction Phase

# 8 Collins Road Extension (Shindler Road to Old Middleburg Road)

City of Jacksonville Construction Phase

- Bus Rapid Transit on Blanding Boulevard JTA Planned

3.1 Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT)

Recent projects have been proposed by FDOT to improve traffic circulation within the study area including construction of a new interchange at I-295 and Collins Road that is proposed as part of a collector distributor lane system with the I-295/Blanding Boulevard interchange. The project began construction in 2010.


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Projects Under ConstructionProjects Committed & In DesignAdditional Recommended Improvements Major Roadways

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Related Projects Map

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In 2005, The FDOT prepared a Project Development and Environment (PD&E) Study for the extension of Wells Road from Blanding Boulevard to Argyle Forest Boulevard. The purpose of the project was to relieve traffic on Blanding Boulevard that weaves between these two intersections. The project was carried forward to an alternatives public meeting and was then dropped based on public controversy associated with wetland impacts to the Ortega River.

3.2 Better Jacksonville Plan/City of Jacksonville Projects

As part of the Better Jacksonville Plan, the following projects are proposed within or adjacent to the study area:

The following projects have been identified as being in design.

Collins Road (Blanding to Pine Verde) - Reconstruct to a four-lane section with medians, bike lanes, sidewalks and curb & gutter on both sides. Budget: $14.1 million.

Collins Road (Rampart to Shindler) - Reconstruct to a four-lane section with landscaped median(s), bike lanes, sidewalks and curb & gutter on both sides. Budget: $20.5 million.

Parramore Road Extension (to Youngerman Circle) - Construct a new, two-lane section with curbs, gutters, sidewalks and bike lanes on both sides. Budget: $267,600. (Design only)

Shindler Drive Phase 2 (Collins to 103rd) -Widen and resurface two-lane roadway to include paved shoulders, drainage improvements and sidewalks. Budget: $18.7 million.

The following projects have been identified as being under construction.

Collins Road Phase 2 (Rampart to Blanding) - Reconstruct to a four-lane section with bike lanes, sidewalks and curb & gutter on both sides. Budget: $25.2 million

Collins Road Extension (Shindler to Old Middleburg) - Construct a new, two-lane section with curbs, gutters, sidewalks and bike lanes on both sides. This section will eventually be widened to a four-lane divided roadway with landscaped median(s). Budget: $9.2 million.

3.3 Jacksonville Transportation Authority

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority is currently considering implementing Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service on Blanding Boulevard through the study area, also known as the Southeast Corridor BRT. North of the project study area, a dedicated bus lane pilot project was implemented in 2009. The project is included in the North Florida TPO Cost Feasible Plan.


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4. Traffic

4.1 Traffic Data Collection

Traffic data were collected from a variety of sources including existing traffic counts performed by the FDOT, City of Jacksonville, North Florida Transportation Planning Organization and by HNTB for this project. The traffic data collected is documented in Appendix A.

4.2 Segment Analysis

For planning purposes the FDOT has adopted statewide minimum Level of Service (LOS) standards for roadway facilities in Rule 14-94.003. LOS is a qualitative measure of the effectiveness of how well a facility operates stratified into six letter grades (A-F). LOS is determined using methods defined in the Transportation Research Board’s Highway Capacity Manual. The following table summarizes the minimum LOS allowed during the peak hour.

Table 2. Statewide Minimum LOS Standards Applicable For This Project Area Strategic Intermodal System and FIHS

Facilities Other State Roads

Limited-Access Highways

Other Facilities

Other Multi-Lane

Two-Lane

Urbanized Areas Over 500,000

D(E) D D D

The values in parenthesis apply to general use lanes only when exclusive through lanes exist. The LOS standard that applies to the facilities in this project is LOS D for state roads. The City of Jacksonville has also adopted LOS D for local roadways. In addition to the traffic flow, the quality of service (QOS) for bicycles and pedestrians within the roadway environment were also analyzed. The LOS and QOS analysis was performed using the FDOT Generalized Quality/Level of Service Handbook.

Table 3 provides a summary of the LOS and QOS for the major roadways within the study area. Figures 3, 4 and 5 show the LOS, pedestrian QOS and bicycle QOS for each of the major facilities within the study area.

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization 7Argyle Traffic Study

SegmentExisting Traffic

CountMaximum

Service VolumeDiv/Undiv

# Lanes in Both

DirectionLength Length

Length of S/W On

Both Side

Length of S/W on

One Side

Length of Bike Lane/

Paved

Sidewalk Coverage

Bike Lane/Paved

ShoulderVehicle Bicycle Pedestrian

Traffic Counts(Year 2010)

(For LOS D) (Miles) (Ft) (Ft) (Ft) (Ft) (%) (%) (LOS) (QOS) (QOS)

1 Branan Field Chaffee Road to Old Middleburg Road S 18,348 29,880 Divided 4 0.8 4,224 4,224 - 2,112 100 50 C D C2 Old Middleburg Road to Staples Mill Drive 18,348 29,880 Divided 4 1.0 5,280 5,280 - 2,640 100 50 C D C3 Staples Mill Drive to Shindler Drive 18,348 29,880 Divided 4 0.8 4,224 4,224 - 2,112 100 50 C D C4 Shindler Drive to Cheswick Oak Avenue 31,320 29,880 Divided 4 0.1 528 528 - 264 100 50 E D C5 Cheswick Oak Avenue to Westport Road 31,320 29,880 Divided 4 1.1 5,808 5,808 - 2,904 100 50 E D C6 Westport Road to Rampart Road 31,320 29,880 Divided 4 1.0 5,280 5,280 - 2,640 100 50 E D C7 Rampart Road to Youngerman Circle 32,377 29,880 Divided 4 0.8 4,224 4,224 - 2,112 100 50 F D C8 Youngerman Circle to Blanding Boulevard 32,377 29,880 Divided 4 0.8 4,224 4,224 - 2,112 100 50 F D C1 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 7,872 13,680 Undivided 2 1.0 5,280 2,640 - - 50 0 C F D2 Westport Road to Rampart Road 7,872 13,680 Undivided 2 1.0 5,280 500 750 3,700 17 70 C D D3 Rampart Road to Blanding Boulevard 17,683 29,880 Divided 4 1.5 7,920 7,920 - 7,920 100 100 C B C1 Wells Road to Argyle Forest Boulevard 86,860 50,300 Divided 6 0.4 2,112 - - - 0 0 F F F2 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Youngerman Circle 86,860 67,300 Divided 8 0.1 528 - - - 0 0 F F F3 Youngerman Circle to I-295 SB-EB Ramps 86,860 67,300 Divided 8 0.1 528 - - - 0 0 F F F4 I-295 SB-EB Ramps to I-295 NB-WB Ramps 86,860 67,300 Divided 8 0.1 528 - - - 0 0 F F F5 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Lake Gary Boulevard 86,860 67,300 Divided 8 0.2 1,056 - - - 0 0 F F F6 Lake Gary Boulevard to Hicks Road 32,068 50,300 Divided 6 0.2 1,056 - - - 0 0 C F F7 Hicks Road to Collins Road 32,068 50,300 Divided 6 0.1 528 - - - 0 0 C F F1 Youngerman Court to Blanding Boulevard 20,884 29,880 Divided 4 0.9 4,752 - 6,752 - 71 0 C F D2 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Youngerman Court 10,263 13,680 Undivided 2 0.2 1,056 - 1,056 - 50 0 D F D

5 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 10,923 29,880 Divided 4 0.5 2,640 2,640 - 2,640 100 100 C B C

Note:Traffic count taken from 2009 FDOT Level of Service Report CD and used 1% growth till 2010.Traffic count taken from 2008 Duval County Count Data and used 1% growth till 2010.

Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment S. No.

1

Blanding Boulevard

Table 3 - Existing Conditions - Vehicular, Bicycle & Pedestrian Q/LOS

Argyle Forest Boulevard1

Youngerman Circle

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Existing Year 2010 AADT and Segment LOS

Figure 3

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Legend

Level of Service

LOS B

LOS C

LOS D

LOS E

LOS F

Major Roadways

LOS A

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Existing Year 2010 Pedestrian QOS

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Legend

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LOS E

LOS F

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Existing Year 2010 Bicycle QOS

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Legend

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LOS B

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LOS E

LOS F

Major Roadways

LOS A


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4.3 Intersection LOS Analysis

In addition to analyzing the segment LOS, each major intersection was analyzed. The LOS analysis was performed using SYNCHRO traffic analysis software. Existing traffic signal timings were not available for use in the analysis at the time of this report; therefore, estimating of the signal timings was required. Two alternate methods for analyzing the intersections were used.

4.3.1 Balanced Delay Method

Table 4 and Table 5 summarize the AM and PM peak-hour results of the intersection LOS using the FDOT District 2’s preferred method for balancing delays within the major movements at each intersection and ensuring no individual movement operates at LOS F to achieve a higher overall intersection LOS. The individual movement signal timings were balanced to achieve similar delays along all the approaches of an intersection. This method is the preferred method for analyzing signalized intersections and reflects the logic most commonly used in preparation of signal timing plans. Some of the movements within this project were still operating at LOS F even with the delays balanced and these movements are listed in Tables 4 and 5. The SYNCHRO results of this operational analysis are provided in Appendix B

As part of the analysis, the following intersections were reported to operate at LOS E/F either in the AM or in the PM peak, which is below the LOS standard for these facilities (LOS AM/LOS PM):

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road (D/E)

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Youngerman Circle (C/E)

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Blanding Boulevard (C/E)

Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle (E/E)

Blanding Boulevard at I-295 SB/EB Ramps (F/E)

Blanding Boulevard at I-295 NB/WB Ramps (C/E)

Blanding Boulevard at Lake Gray Boulevard (D/E)

Blanding Boulevard at Collins Road (E/E)

Even though the LOS at the other intersections along Argyle Forest Boulevard are within the LOS threshold (<=LOS D), the queues near these failing intersections spillback into the adjacent intersections leading to the congestion of these intersections. Queue spillbacks in this area are a historical problem and can be identified in the 95% queue length values reported during the AM and PM peak hours in Tables 4 and 5. Table 6 shows the individual movements near an intersection with queue spill back issues during the AM Peak and Table 7 shows these movements during PM peak.


Left Turn Through Right Turn Left Turn Through Right Turn Left Turn Through Right Turn Left Turn Through Right Turn

C D D D D D B D D C D D

95% Queue (ft) 194 176 176 m147 m129 m129 3 369 72 93 163 39D E E C D A C D D C C C

95% Queue (ft) m96 293 m13 87 #254 0 50 87 66 69 43 30A - - B - - F C C E C C

95% Queue (ft) 0 - - 3 - - 178 11 11 20 8 8C A - - B D - - - C - C

95% Queue (ft) 264 176 - - 176 58 - - - 131 - 41- C B C C - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - 351 40 182 234 - 256 - 225 - - -A A - - C D - - - D - D

95% Queue (ft) m6 41 - - 255 m17 - - - m74 - m0A D C D C D D D D C B B

95% Queue (ft) 56 513 m15 m16 250 94 56 56 56 m107 m3 m21A - - - - - F F F B B B

95% Queue (ft) 1 - - - - - 16 16 16 3 3 3D B - - C C - - - C - C

95% Queue (ft) m360 m208 - - 186 20 - - - 111 - 20D - D - - - D D - - B A

95% Queue (ft) 256 - 185 - - - 188 1,018 - - 79 0E E D E E E E E E F C E

95% Queue (ft) 431 426 37 97 40 90 m48 #867 #867 m72 327 m95F - E - - - - C F F A -

95% Queue (ft) #531 - 100 - - - - m506 m#2,327 #1,264 124 -- - - D - D C A - - D D

95% Queue (ft) - - - 245 - 252 m154 m67 - - 322 322D D D D D D D D D F C C

95% Queue (ft) 64 64 50 22 23 23 m77 567 567 m1 m117 m10D D D D D D E C C - D D

95% Queue (ft) 24 0 0 7 0 0 m5 229 229 - m370 m370E E E E E E E E C E E E

95% Queue (ft) #676 #544 #544 #362 112 112 124 #778 80 215 383 383D D D D D D C D D D D D

95% Queue (ft) m235 307 307 80 83 83 25 226 91 125 217 217- - - A A - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 8 8 - 79 - 79 - - -- - - C - C - - - A A -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 48 - 48 - - - 13 13 -

Note:* - HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis results were used.m - Volume for 95th percentile queue is metered by upstream signal.# - 95th percentile volume exceeds capacity, queue may be longer. Queue shown is maximum after two cycles.~ - Volume exceeds capacity, queue is theoretically infinite. Queue shown is maximum after two cycles.

Table 4 - Existing Intersection LOS AM Peak Hour (Balanced Delay Method)

Intersection Control Type MOE

Individual Movement LOSIntersection

LOS

Intersection Delay(Sec)

IntersectionV/C Ratio

Eastbound Westbound

44.8 0.58D D D D

Northbound Southbound

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Branan Field Chaffee Rd. Signalized LOS

D

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Old Middleburg Rd. Signalized LOS

D 42.3 0.42D D B B

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Staples Mill Dr.* Stop ControlledLOS

A 14.5 -- - F D

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Shindler Dr. Signalized LOS

C 21.5 0.59B C - C

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Cheswick Oak Ave. Signalized LOS

C 31.3 0.63C C C -

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Westport Rd. Signalized LOS

B 11.6 0.46A C - D

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Rampart Rd. Signalized LOS

C 33.3 0.54C C D B

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Meadow Bend Dr. * Stop ControlledLOS

B 0.7 -- - F B

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Youngerman Cir. Signalized LOS

C 29.8 0.55C C - C

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Blanding Blvd. Signalized LOS

C 33.2 0.75D - D B

Blanding Blvd. & Youngerman Cir. Signalized LOS

E 60.6 0.84E E E C

Blanding Blvd. & I-295 SB/EB Ramps Signalized LOS

F 172.6 1.71F - F F

Blanding Blvd. & I-295 NB/WB Ramps Signalized LOS

C 31.8 0.77- D B D

Blanding Blvd. & Lake Gray Blvd. Signalized LOS

D 41.1 0.42D D D C

Blanding Blvd. & Hicks Rd. Signalized LOS

D 36.2 0.49D D C D

Blanding Blvd. & Collins Rd. Signalized LOS

E 72.7 0.92E E E E

Collins Rd. & Rampart Rd. Signalized LOS

D 42.4 0.59D D D D

Collins Rd. & Westport Rd.* Stop ControlledLOS

C 5.4 -- - C -

Collins Rd. & Shindler Dr. Stop ControlledLOS

C 4.2 -- C - -



C E E E D D F D D E E D

95% Queue (ft) 10 #363 #363 #645 193 193 #715 178 92 #154 144 17D D D C C E D D D D D D

95% Queue (ft) m60 m339 m12 m420 m372 m81 77 76 67 242 147 66C - - B - - F D D F C C

95% Queue (ft) 4 - - 5 - - Err 19 19 54 2 2F A - - D A - - - D - D

95% Queue (ft) m#257 124 - - #908 m42 - - - 330 - 121- D B D B - D - D - - -

95% Queue (ft) - #561 m35 m330 m508 - 316 - 66 - - -F A - - E B - - - D - E

95% Queue (ft) m#63 38 - - m#1,122 m15 - - - m66 - m208D D D D D D D D D D C D

95% Queue (ft) #157 521 m19 m13 m805 m49 60 60 60 m217 m20 m240C - - B - - F F F F F F

95% Queue (ft) 5 - - 2 - - 32 32 32 62 62 62E B - - E B - - - D - E

95% Queue (ft) #433 297 - - #867 33 - - - 72 - #466E - E - - - F A - - F A

95% Queue (ft) 209 - 302 - - - #811 234 - - m#1,038 m64F F E E E E F D D E E F

95% Queue (ft) #448 #442 127 100 83 54 #439 473 473 m99 m#990 m#1,141D - E - - - - D F F D -

95% Queue (ft) 437 - #826 - - - - 403 665 m406 574 -- - - E - D F B - - E E

95% Queue (ft) - - - 644 - 444 #537 222 - - m393 m393E E D E E D E D D F E B

95% Queue (ft) 123 123 45 114 37 37 267 393 393 m17 m#598 m37E E E E E E E C C - E E

95% Queue (ft) 112 44 44 21 0 0 m34 259 259 - m#838 m#838E E E E E E E E C D E E

95% Queue (ft) 269 154 154 309 #303 #303 353 #636 101 270 #644 #644E D D D D D D D F C D D

95% Queue (ft) m159 m124 m124 249 #331 #331 m72 m304 m90 97 #570 #570- - - A A - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 23 23 - 48 - 48 - - -- - - F - F - - - A A -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 339 - 339 - - - 10 10 -


Table 5 - Existing Intersection LOS PM Peak Hour (Balanced Delay Method)



LOS



Eastbound Westbound

70.5 1.05E E F E



E


D 42.5 0.75D D D D


B 400.4 -- - F F


D 36.7 0.91C D - D


C 28.7 0.92D B D -


D 45.7 0.92B E - E


D 43.0 0.92D D D D


C 2.3 -- - F F


E 57.9 0.99D E - E


E 72.3 1.05E - E E


E 73.6 0.94E E E E


E 55.2 0.96E - E D


E 58.0 0.92- D D E


E 58.4 0.64D D D E


D 40.5 0.64E E C E


E 64.6 0.85E E E E


D 53.5 0.81D D E D


D 5.7 -- - C -


D 32.8 -- F - -


14

Table 6. Movements with Queue Exceeding Capacity – AM Peak Intersection Name Movements with Queue Spillback Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road WB Thru Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle NB Thru and Right Blanding Boulevard at I-295 SB/EB Ramps EB Left, NB Right and SB Left Blanding Boulevard at Collins Rd. EB Left, Thru and Right, WB Left and

NB Thru Table 7. Movements with Queue Exceeding Capacity – PM Peak Intersection Name Movements with Queue Spillback Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road EB Thru and Right, WB Left, NB Left

and SB Left Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive EB Left and WB Thru and Right Argyle Forest Boulevard at Cheswick Oak Avenue EB Thru Argyle Forest Boulevard at Westport Road EB Left and WB Thru and Right Argyle Forest Boulevard at Rampart Road EB Left Argyle Forest Boulevard at Youngerman Circle EB Left, WB Thru and Right and SB

Right Argyle Forest Boulevard at Blanding Boulevard NB Left and SB Thru Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle EB Left and Thru, NB Left, and SB

Thru and Right Blanding Boulevard at I-295 SB/EB Ramps EB Right Blanding Boulevard at I-295 NB/WB Ramps NB Left Blanding Boulevard at Lake Gray Boulevard SB Thru Blanding Boulevard at Hicks Road SB Thru and Right Blanding Boulevard at Collins Road WB Thru and Right, NB Thru, and SB

Thru and Right Collins Road at Rampart Road WB Thru and Right, and SB Thru and

Right WB = westbound, EB = eastbound, NB = northbound, SB = southbound

4.3.2 Optimization Method

Table 8 and Table 9 summarize the results of the intersection LOS using SYNCHRO’s optimization of the signal timings. This method results in a more aggressive signal timing that will allow individual movements to fail in order to achieve an acceptable overall LOS at the intersection. This method can lead to excessive delays for movements on minor approaches to the intersections and result in significant queue spillback. This approach is shown for illustrative purposes. The SYNCHRO results of this operational analysis are provided in Appendix C

As part of the analysis, the following intersections were reported to operate at LOS E/F either in the AM or in the PM peak, which is below the LOS standard for these facilities (LOS AM/LOS PM):

Argyle Forest Blvd. & Branan Field Chaffee Rd. (D/E)

Blanding Blvd. & I-295 SB/EB Ramps (F/E)

Blanding Blvd. & Collins Rd. (E/E)



D D D D F F B C B B B B

95% Queue (ft) 205 171 171 252 138 138 3 306 58 85 106 26C D D D D D B B B B B B

95% Queue (ft) 78 286 m18 142 130 16 45 74 56 62 36 25A - - B - - F C C E C C

95% Queue (ft) 0 - - 3 - - 178 11 11 20 8 8B A - - B C - - - D - D

95% Queue (ft) 215 131 - - 96 54 - - - 152 - 47- C C D B - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - 345 26 133 93 - 242 - 313 - - -A A - - A A - - - D - D

95% Queue (ft) m9 52 - - 65 3 - - - m77 - m0D B A F B D D D D B B C

95% Queue (ft) 152 420 m7 23 198 72 55 55 55 110 m8 m41A - - - - - F F F B B B

95% Queue (ft) 1 - - - - - 16 16 16 4 4 4B A - - B B - - - D - D

95% Queue (ft) 218 67 - - 136 15 - - - 138 - 25D - E - - - E C - - A A

95% Queue (ft) 275 - 484 - - - 213 906 - - 66 0F F D E E F F C C F B C

95% Queue (ft) #481 #469 39 97 40 152 m63 293 293 m#93 211 72F - E - - - - C F F A -

95% Queue (ft) #471 - 111 - - - - 609 #2,857 #1,210 166 -- - - E - E D A - - D D

95% Queue (ft) - - - 267 - 243 m276 m68 - - 335 335E E E E E E F A A F A A

95% Queue (ft) 72 72 56 26 27 27 m108 95 95 m3 28 1F E E F E E F A A - A A

95% Queue (ft) 28 0 0 8 0 0 m14 32 32 - m153 m153F E E F E E F D B F D D

95% Queue (ft) #711 #544 #544 #398 131 131 157 681 65 #276 302 302E D D E D D C C E C C C

95% Queue (ft) 242 316 316 86 80 80 m16 180 111 117 185 185- - - A A - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 8 8 - 79 - 79 - - -- - - C - C - - - A A -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 48 - 48 - - - 13 13 -


- - C 4.2 -Collins Rd. & Shindler Dr. Stop ControlledLOS

- C

C 5.4 -Collins Rd. & Westport Rd.* Stop ControlledLOS

- - C -

D C D 41.5 0.56Collins Rd. & Rampart Rd. Signalized LOS

D D

D D E 58.7 0.88Blanding Blvd. & Collins Rd. Signalized LOS

E F

A A A 2.4 0.41Blanding Blvd. & Hicks Rd. Signalized LOS

F E

A A B 14.4 0.33Blanding Blvd. & Lake Gray Blvd. Signalized LOS

E E

C D D 38.3 0.77Blanding Blvd. & I-295 NB/WB Ramps Signalized LOS

- E

1.68F - F FBlanding Blvd. & I-295 SB/EB Ramps Signalized LOS

F 176.5

C B C 31.8 0.83Blanding Blvd. & Youngerman Cir. Signalized LOS

F E

C A C 26.9 0.82Argyle Forest Blvd. & Blanding Blvd. Signalized LOS

E -

- D B 12.0 0.59Argyle Forest Blvd. & Youngerman Cir. Signalized LOS

A B

-- - F BArgyle Forest Blvd. & Meadow Bend Dr. * Stop ControlledLOS

B 0.7

0.47C C D CArgyle Forest Blvd. & Rampart Rd. Signalized LOS

C 21.9

- D A 4.9 0.46Argyle Forest Blvd. & Westport Rd. Signalized LOS

A A

C - C 26.3 0.67Argyle Forest Blvd. & Cheswick Oak Ave. Signalized LOS

C C

- D B 14.3 0.58Argyle Forest Blvd. & Shindler Dr. Signalized LOS

A B

F D A 14.5 -LOS

Stop ControlledArgyle Forest Blvd. & Staples Mill Dr.* - -

B B C 33.1 0.36Signalized Argyle Forest Blvd. & Old Middleburg Rd.

LOSD F

LOSD D

D 41.1 0.53Signalized Argyle Forest Blvd. & Branan Field Chaffee Rd. C B

Eastbound Westbound Northbound SouthboundIntersection

Individual Movement LOS

MOEIntersection

V/C Ratio

Table 8 - Existing Intersection LOS AM Peak Hour (Optimization Method)

Control TypeIntersection

LOS




D E E F C C F D D D E D

95% Queue (ft) 12 #422 #422 #680 181 181 #641 167 84 136 136 16C D D D D F D D D C D C

95% Queue (ft) m63 m317 m19 m471 m415 m96 76 75 66 239 145 65C - - B - - F D D F C C

95% Queue (ft) 4 - - 5 - - Err 19 19 54 2 2F A - - C A - - - E - D

95% Queue (ft) m#284 112 - - 794 m19 - - - #406 - 168- D C D B - E - D - - -

95% Queue (ft) - m554 m32 m376 m648 - #372 - 70 - - -F A - - C A - - - E - F

95% Queue (ft) m#73 25 - - 1,065 m11 - - - m79 - m#306E C C E D D D D D D C D

95% Queue (ft) #177 513 m22 m14 m835 m44 60 60 60 m#275 m22 184C - - B - - F F F F F F

95% Queue (ft) 5 - - 2 - - 33 33 33 63 63 63F B - - D B - - - D - F

95% Queue (ft) m#479 293 - - #805 30 - - - 73 - #546F - F - - - F A - - C A

95% Queue (ft) #247 - #384 - - - #740 145 - - #1,101 m56F F E E E E E C C E C D

95% Queue (ft) #520 #513 #276 106 87 57 m#397 385 385 m104 m754 m#980D - E - - - - D F F D -

95% Queue (ft) 432 - #815 - - - - m443 m496 m#416 572 -- - - E - D F B - - D D

95% Queue (ft) - - - 651 - 446 #537 195 - - 493 493E E E E E E E B B F A A

95% Queue (ft) 136 136 50 127 41 41 m251 297 297 m29 224 32E E E E E E E A A - A A

95% Queue (ft) 122 48 48 24 0 0 m48 202 202 - 294 294F E E F F F F D D F D D

95% Queue (ft) #298 154 154 #325 #303 #303 #432 564 76 314 579 579E C C E D D D D F B C C

95% Queue (ft) m163 m132 m132 249 307 307 m63 m266 m80 92 466 466- - - A A - C - C - - -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 23 23 - 48 - 48 - - -- - - F - F - - - A A -

95% Queue (ft) - - - 339 - 339 - - - 10 10 -



D 32.8 -- F - -


D 5.7 -- - C -


D 46.3 0.68D D E C


E 55.7 0.82E F D D


B 10.2 0.59E E A A


C 23.1 0.53E E C A


D 53.4 0.92- E D D


E 57.5 0.96E - E D


D 42.6 0.94F E C C


D 41.8 1.02F - D C


D 54.0 1.06D D - F


C 2.3 -- - F F


D 41.4 0.89D D D D


C 29.4 0.92A C - F


C 30.0 0.91C C E -


C 26.8 0.90C B - E


B 400.4 -- - F F


D 44.7 0.76D D D C

64.6 1.05E E E D



E

Table 9 - Existing Intersection LOS PM Peak Hour (Optimization Method)



LOS



Eastbound Westbound


17

LOS E/F are reported at several of the major intersections with the first method that are not reported using this optimization method. However, the approach delay associated with the intersecting minor cross streets increases at these intersections.

A comparison between the AM Peak hour measure of effectiveness and the PM Peak hour measure of effectiveness between the two methods shows that the LOS and intersection delay values reported using method one are either equal to or higher than those values reported using method two. Table 10 below compares the LOS values for intersections differing in LOS between both the methods during the AM Peak and Table 11 shows similar values for PM Peak.

Table 10. Comparison Between the Analysis Methods – AM Peak Intersection Name LOS

(Method 1)LOS

(Method 2) Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road D C Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive C B Argyle Forest Boulevard at Westport Road B A Argyle Forest Boulevard at Youngerman Circle C B Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle E C Blanding Boulevard at Lake Gray Boulevard D B Blanding Boulevard at Hicks Road D A

Table 11. Comparison Between the Analysis Methods – PM Peak Intersection Name LOS

(Method 1)LOS

(Method 2) Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive D C Argyle Forest Boulevard at Westport Road D C Argyle Forest Boulevard at Youngerman Circle E D Argyle Forest Boulevard at Blanding Boulevard E D Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle E D Blanding Boulevard at I-295 NB/WB Ramps E D Blanding Boulevard at Lake Gray Blvd. E C Blanding Boulevard at Hicks Rd. D B

However in both cases the queue spillback effects result in LOS that are reported to be better than the operations experienced by the driver as previously reported in Table 6 and 7. The queue spillback problems are significant and result in LOS alone being insufficient to fully describe the operational and safety needs in the area.


18

5. Safety Analysis Five years of crash data were obtained within the study area from the FDOT, 2005-2009. These data were mapped and the crash rates (crashes per million vehicle miles) compared to the average crash rates in North Florida for similar types of roadways. Table 12 provides a summary of the total number of crashes on each facility, the crash rates, the average crash rate and the ranking of each intersection by crash location and crash rate.

Blanding Boulevard experienced the most crashes, 948 crashes, during this period and the crash rate was nearly twice the average crash rate of similar facilities. Although Argyle Forest Boulevard experienced 604 crashes over the last five years, this was the only facility in the study area with a crash rate below the average crash rate. All of the other major roadways in the area experienced crash rates greater than the average with the exception of Parramore Road.

Within the study area, ten fatal crashes occurred during the five year analysis period, and 1,525 crashes with injuries occurred. The most fatal and injury crashes occurred on Blanding Boulevard with four crashes involving a fatality and 536 crashes involving an injury. Three fatal crashes and 357 injury crashes occurred on Argyle Forest Boulevard. Table 13 provides a summary of the crash severity by year by facility. The locations with the highest crashes are:

Blanding Boulevard at I-295 interchange area – 237 crashes

Blanding Boulevard at Argyle Forest Boulevard – 221 crashes

Blanding Boulevard at Youngerman Circle – 220 crashes

Blanding Boulevard at Collins Road – 173 crashes

Blanding Boulevard at Wells Road – 135 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Cheswick Oaks Avenue – 69 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road – 58 crashes

Collins Road at Rampart Road – 46 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Rampart Road – 42 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road – 38 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive – 37 crashes

Argyle Forest near Spencers Trace Drive – 15 crashes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Staples Mill Drive – 14 crashes

Figure 6 shows the crashes by location. Figure 7 shows the crash severity. Figure 8 shows the number of crashes at the highest locations.


S.No. Roadway Length (ft.) Length (mi) ADTTotal

Crashes

Crashes PerMVM

FDOT Average (Crashes per MVM)

Ranking Crash Rate

Ranking Total

Crashes

1 SR 21 ‐ Blanding Boulevard 6,336 1.200 70,422 948 6.147 3.197 7 12 Argyle Forest Boulevard 33,792 6.400 27,348 604 1.891 2.600 12 23 Youngerman Circle 5,808 1.100 17,344 283 8.128 3.648 5 44 Parramore Road 2,640 0.500 0 1 ‐ 2.983 ‐ 135 Wells Road* 4,752 0.900 9,957 154 9.416 2.600 2 56 Collins Road 18,480 3.500 14,413 309 3.356 2.983 10 37 Rampart Road 2,640 0.500 10,923 87 8.729 2.600 4 68 Westport Road* 3,168 0.600 2,500 25 9.132 2.983 3 119 Cheswick Oaks Avenue* 1,584 0.300 12,450 72 10.563 2.983 1 710 Shindler Drive* 2,640 0.500 12,300 60 5.346 2.983 9 911 Staples Mill Drive* 4,224 0.800 2,150 23 7.327 2.983 6 1212 Old Middleburg Road 3,168 0.600 10,499 63 5.480 2.983 8 8

13 SR 23 ‐ Branan Field Chaffee Road 3,168 0.600 14,292 43 2.748 2.600 11 10

Traffic count taken from 2009 FDOT Level of Service Report CD and used 1% growth till 2010.Traffic count taken from 2008 FDOT Traffic CD Online and used 1% growth till 2010.Highlighted values represent sections that have crash rate higher than the FDOT Statewide Average Crash Rate values, Year 2009.

* Roadways with no ADT data, NERPM Scenario 1 volume data is used.

Note: 1) Crash Data was reported between the Years 2005 ‐ 2009.2) ADT is calcualted as the weighted average of individual roadways segments along the corridor.

Table 12 ‐ Summary of Crash Data


Road Name Year Fatality Injury PDO Total Crashes

2005 0 91 90 1812006 0 101 74 1752007 3 96 76 1752008 0 110 78 1882009 1 138 90 229Total 4 536 408 9482005 1 43 50 942006 1 72 43 1162007 1 86 48 1352008 0 70 55 1252009 0 86 48 134Total 3 357 244 6042005 0 30 26 562006 0 27 18 452007 0 31 25 562008 0 35 25 602009 0 42 24 66Total 0 165 118 2832005 0 0 0 02006 0 1 0 12007 0 0 0 02008 0 0 0 02009 0 0 0 0Total 0 1 0 12005 0 21 14 352006 0 14 16 302007 0 19 12 312008 0 10 14 242009 0 21 13 34Total 0 85 69 154

2005 0 28 28 562006 0 41 24 652007 1 29 32 622008 0 30 31 612009 0 37 28 65Total 1 165 143 309

2005 0 6 5 112006 0 12 10 222007 0 10 6 162008 0 3 15 182009 0 11 9 20Total 0 42 45 87

2005 0 2 1 32006 0 1 4 52007 1 3 3 72008 0 3 2 52009 0 2 3 5Total 1 11 13 25

Table 13 ‐ Summary of Crash Severity

Collins Road

SR 21(Blanding Boulevard)


Youngerman Circle

Parramore Road

Wells Road

Rampart Road

Westport Road


Road Name Year Fatality Injury PDO Total Crashes

2005 0 2 3 52006 0 13 7 202007 0 14 8 222008 0 6 6 122009 0 9 4 13Total 0 44 28 72

2005 0 10 7 172006 0 9 4 132007 0 12 2 142008 0 5 3 82009 0 6 2 8Total 0 42 18 60

2005 0 0 2 22006 0 1 2 32007 0 2 3 52008 0 5 4 92009 0 3 1 4Total 0 11 12 23

2005 0 3 2 52006 0 8 6 142007 0 5 5 102008 0 11 4 152009 0 14 5 19Total 0 41 22 63

2005 1 1 1 32006 0 5 2 72007 0 7 4 112008 0 4 6 102009 0 8 4 12Total 1 25 17 43

10 1,525 1,137 2,672Study Area Total

SR 23(Branan Field Chaffee Road)

Cheswick Oak Avenue

Shindler Drive

Staples Mill Drive

Old Middleburg Road

Table 13 ‐ Summary of Crash Severity (continued)


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Figure 6

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Legend

Year - 2005

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25

6. Future Travel Demand An integral part of this project is to consider the result of shifts in travel patterns that will result from the construction of the I-295 project at Blanding Boulevard and Collins Road. To understand and assess the shift in traffic patterns that will occur, travel demand forecasts were prepared for several alternate scenarios and compared using the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Model (NERPM 4). The following NERPM models were developed:

Base Model (Scenario 1): This model scenario was used to evaluate the performance of the existing NERPM model when compared to traffic counts. The NERPM model base year was 2005 and a 2010 network was created reflecting roadway improvements opened from 2005 to 2010.

No-Build Models: Three No-Build models were developed,

1) No-Build Model 1 (Scenario 2): This model utilizes the Base Model network with no additional improvements to roadways and is modeled using the 2035 Socio-economic data to obtain the No-Build year 2035 AADT on the roadways within the study area.

2) No-Build Model 2 (Scenario 3A): This model is modeled using the 2035 socio-economic data, but includes the below identified roadway improvements as these projects are either in design phase or under construction within the study area and are anticipated to be completed by 2035. These roadway improvement projects are:

a. I-295 Collector-Distributor and Collins Road Interchange. b. Collins Road four-laning from Rampart Road to Shindler Drive. c. Collins Road extension from Shindler Drive to Old Middleburg Road.

3) No-Build Model 3 (Scenario 3B): This model utilizes the same network as No-Build

Model 2 with one additional roadway improvement listed as below. The network uses the year 2035 socio-economic data. This model provides a basis for evaluating the benefits realized by the construction of the Parramore Road extension project.

a. Parramore Road extension from Youngerman Circle to Collins Road

Build Model (Scenario 4): This model scenario includes two new system improvements within the study area listed below. The network uses the year 2035 socio-economic data.

b. Collins Road extension from Old Middleburg Road to Branan Field Chaffee Road. c. Wells Road extension from Blanding Boulevard to Argyle Forest Boulevard.

When comparing the Base Year model to traffic count data, two key screenline locations were chosen – west of Rampart Road and east of Rampart Road. The following table summarizes the comparison between the screenline volumes and count volumes.


26

Table 14. Screenline Comparison of Count and Model Data

West of Rampart Road East of Rampart Road

Count Data (AADT)

Argyle Forest Boulevard 31,320 32,377

Collins Road 7,872 7,683

Total 39,192 40,060

Model Data (AADT)

Argyle Forest Boulevard 23,450 26,100

Collins Road 11,100 15,150

Total 34,550 41,250

% of Count Data 88.15% 102.9%

Since these screenlines model volumes are within 15 percent of the count volumes, the model was deemed acceptable for use for the purposes of comparing traffic shifts between roadways within the study area.

Tables 15 thru 19 provides a summary of the model volumes with Scenario 1 thru Scenario 4. Figures 9 thru 13 shows a comparison of the count data with model volumes at key locations within the study area for these Scenarios.


SegmentNERPM Volume

NERPM Volume

(rounded)

# Lanes in Both

DirectionLength Vehicle

2010 AADT 2010 AADT (Miles) (LOS)

1 Branan Field Chaffee Road to Old Middleburg Road S 16,194 16,200 4 0.8 C

2 Old Middleburg Road to Staples Mill Drive 6,649 6,650 4 1.0 C

3 Staples Mill Drive to Shindler Drive 8,964 8,950 4 0.8 C

4 Shindler Drive to Cheswick Oak Avenue 11,671 11,650 4 0.1 C

5 Cheswick Oak Avenue to Westport Road 17,519 17,500 4 1.1 C

6 Westport Road to Rampart Road 23,448 23,450 4 1.0 D

7 Rampart Road to Youngerman Circle 26,101 26,100 4 0.8 D

8 Youngerman Circle to Blanding Boulevard 24,788 24,800 4 0.8 D

1 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 6,962 6,950 2 1.0 C

2 Westport Road to Rampart Road 11,123 11,100 2 1.0 D

3 Rampart Road to Blanding Boulevard 15,167 15,150 4 1.5 C

1 Wells Road to Argyle Forest Boulevard 112,416 112,400 6 0.4 F

2 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Youngerman Circle 105,768 105,750 8 0.1 F

3 Youngerman Circle to I-295 SB-EB Ramps 94,287 94,300 8 0.1 F

4 I-295 SB-EB Ramps to I-295 NB-WB Ramps 78,864 78,850 8 0.1 F

5 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Lake Gray Boulevard 63,693 63,700 8 0.2 D

6 Lake Gary Boulevard to Hicks Road 42,908 42,900 6 0.2 D

7 Hicks Road to Collins Road 42,757 42,750 6 0.1 D

1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Youngerman Court 2,779 2,800 2 0.2 C

2 Youngerman Court to Blanding Boulevard 9,897 9,900 4 0.9 C

5 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 20,835 20,850 4 0.5 C

6 Westport Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 2,479 2,500 2 0.6 C

7 Cheswick Oak Avenue 1 Staples Mill Drive to Argyle Forest Boulevard 12,428 12,450 2 0.3 D

8 Shindler Drive 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 12,288 12,300 2 0.5 D

9 Staples Mill Drive 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Cheswick Oak Avenue 2,161 2,150 2 0.8 C

10 Old Middleburg Road S 1 North of Argyle Forest Boulevard 10,312 10,300 2 - D

11 Branan Field Chaffee Road 1 North of Argyle Forest Boulevard 22,907 22,900 4 - C

Table 15 - NERPM Model Volumes - Base Model (Scenario 1)

4 Youngerman Circle

Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment

S. No.

1 Argyle Forest Boulevard

2 Collins Road

3 Blanding Boulevard


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

Legend

Major Roadways

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet


NERPM Model Volumes - Base Model (Scenario 1)

Figure 9

28

11,1006,950

17,500

8,950

11,650

6,650

12,3002,500 20,850

16,200

22,900

10,300

2,150

23,450

26,100

15,150

24,800

2,800

42,850

105,750

112,40012,450

15,150

9,900


SegmentNERPM Volume

NERPM Volume

(rounded)

# Lanes in Both



1 Branan Field Chaffee Road to Old Middleburg Road S 37,521 37,500 4 0.8 F

2 Old Middleburg Road to Staples Mill Drive 28,470 28,450 4 1.0 D

3 Staples Mill Drive to Shindler Drive 26,821 26,800 4 0.8 D

4 Shindler Drive to Cheswick Oak Avenue 23,271 23,250 4 0.1 D

5 Cheswick Oak Avenue to Westport Road 43,226 43,250 4 1.1 F

6 Westport Road to Rampart Road 46,915 46,900 4 1.0 F

7 Rampart Road to Youngerman Circle 44,242 44,250 4 0.8 F

8 Youngerman Circle to Blanding Boulevard 37,596 37,600 4 0.8 F

1 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 15,023 15,000 2 1.0 F


3 Rampart Road to Blanding Boulevard 27,970 27,950 4 1.5 D





5 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Lake Gray Boulevard 75,655 75,650 8 0.2 F

6 Lake Gary Boulevard to Hicks Road 50,716 50,700 6 0.2 E

7 Hicks Road to Collins Road 50,737 50,750 6 0.1 E



5 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 31,170 31,150 4 0.5 E

6 Westport Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 9,868 9,850 2 0.6 D

7 Cheswick Oak Avenue 1 Staples Mill Drive to Argyle Forest Boulevard 26,658 26,650 2 0.3 F

8 Shindler Drive 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 19,437 19,450 2 0.5 F

9 Staples Mill Drive 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Cheswick Oak Avenue 17,708 17,700 2 0.8 F

10 Old Middleburg Road S 1 North of Argyle Forest Boulevard 14,524 14,500 2 - E

11 Branan Field Chaffee Road 1 North of Argyle Forest Boulevard 60,338 60,350 4 - F

2 Collins Road


4 Youngerman Circle

Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment

S. No.


Table 16 - NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 1 (Scenario 2)


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

Legend

Major Roadways

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet


NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 1 (Scenario 2)

Figure 10

30

22,55015,000

43,250

26,800

23,250

28,450

19,450

9,85031,150

37,500

60,350

14,500

17,700

46,900

44,250

27,950

37,600

8,650

50,750

120,000

146,000

26,650

27,950

16,250


SegmentNERPM Volume

NERPM Volume

(rounded)

# Lanes in Both







5 Cheswick Oak Avenue to Westport Road 29,897 29,900 4 1.1 E




1 Old Middleburg Road S to Shindler Drive 7,201 7,200 2 1.5 C

2 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 31,457 31,450 4 1.0 E


4 Rampart Road to I-295 SB-EB Ramps 47,892 47,900 4 0.6 F


6 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Blanding Boulevard 29,908 29,900 4 0.9 E










5 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 30,312 30,300 4 0.5 E





10 Old Middleburg Road S 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 43,695 43,700 4 0.6 F

11 Branan Field Chaffee Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 52,653 52,650 6 0.6 E

Note:New Roadway Link

2 Collins Road


4 Youngerman Circle

Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment

S. No.


Table 17 - NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 2 (Scenario 3A)


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

Legend

Major RoadwaysProposed Improvements

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet


NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 2 (Scenario 3A)

Figure 11

32

37,20031,450

29,900

18,300

9,550

10,550

19,85012,200 30,300

51,950

52,650

43,700

9,100

34,000

26,250

29,900

24,250

6,200

42,800

115,150

127,60021,350

7,200

10,500

47,900

40,200


SegmentNERPM Volume

NERPM Volume

(rounded)

# Lanes in Both











1 Old Middleburg Road S to Shindler Drive 7,387 7,400 2 1.5 C

2 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 29,753 29,750 4 1.0 D


4 Rampart Road to Parramore Road 43,344 43,350 4 0.5 F

5 Parramore Road to I-295 SB-EB Ramps 56,253 56,250 4 0.1 F


7 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Blanding Boulevard 27,020 27,000 4 0.9 D










5 Parramore Road 1 Collins Road to Youngerman Circle 11,662 11,650 2 0.8 D

6 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 28,498 28,500 4 0.5 D






12 Branan Field Chaffee Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 51,660 51,650 6 0.6 E


Scenario 3B is same as Scenario 3A with the Parramore Road Connection added into the network


4 Youngerman Circle

Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment

S. No.

Table 18 - NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 3 (Scenario 3B)


2 Collins Road


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

Legend


§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet


NERPM Model Volumes - No-Build Model 3 (Scenario 3B)

Figure 12

34

35,65029,750

30,600

17,350

10,300

10,300

18,60011,400

28,500

51,700

51,650

43,750

8,600

34,850

24,800

27,000

24,150

7,350

39,950

116,300

127,55022,150

7,400

11,650

9,450

43,350

Parr

am

ore

Roa

d

56,250 41,700


SegmentNERPM Volume

NERPM Volume

(rounded)

# Lanes in Both









7 Rampart Road to Youngerman Circle 31,413 31,400 4 0.8 E

8 Youngerman Circle to Well Road Extension 45,427 45,450 4 0.4 F

9 Wells Road Extension to Blanding Boulevard 13,584 13,600 4 0.4 C


2 Old Middleburg Road S to Shindler Drive 11,203 11,200 2 1.5 D

3 Shindler Drive to Westport Road 31,918 31,900 4 1.0 F


5 Rampart Road to Parramore Road 42,705 42,700 4 0.5 F

6 Parramore Road to I-295 SB-EB Ramps 61,037 61,050 4 0.1 F


8 I-295 NB-WB Ramps to Blanding Boulevard 26,811 26,800 4 0.9 D








4 Wells Road Extension 1 Wells Road to Argyle Forest Boulevard 52,675 52,700 4 0.4 F

1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Youngerman Court 14,793 14,800 2 0.2 F


6 Parramore Road 1 Collins Road to Youngerman Circle 17,679 17,700 2 0.8 F

7 Rampart Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 28,796 28,800 4 0.5 D






13 Branan Field Chaffee Road 1 Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road 65,466 65,450 6 0.6 F


Roadway S.No.

RoadwaySegment

S. No.


Table 19 - NERPM Model Volumes - Build Model (Scenario 4)

2 Collins Road


5 Youngerman Circle


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

Legend


§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet


NERPM Model Volumes - Build Model (Scenario 4)

Figure 13

36

37,85031,900

30,800

16,250

14,700

10,250

16,95012,000

28,800

44,400

65,450

35,150

7,200

36,250

31,400

26,800

45,450

14,800

42,200

118,850

100,100

21,200

11,200

17,700

5,100

42,700

19,350

13,600

52,700

Parr

am

ore

Roa

d

61,05045,350


37

The NERPM model performed reasonably when compared to the traffic counts (variation less than 25 percent) for the local roadway network in the study area.

The NERPM model is over estimating the demand for north-south travel on Blanding Boulevard when compared to traffic counts. For example, the segment of Blanding Boulevard between Wells Road and Argyle Forest Boulevard the model estimates 112,400 vehicles per day from the model versus 86,860 vehicles per day for the count by FDOT at the same location. However, since this study will focus primarily on the change that occurs as a result of other improvements to traffic on Blanding Boulevard, the model was deemed acceptable for use in this study. Figure 14 thru 16 shows the variation in traffic volumes between various Scenarios considered for this project.

In addition to comparing the volume shifts that occur with each model scenario, the system measures of effectiveness were also compared as summarized in Table 20.

Table 20. Comparison of 2035 Model Scenarios

2035 Scenario Description Total VMT Total VHT

Average Speed (MPH)

Scenario 2 No-Build Model 1

63,321,924

2,807,781

27.57 Scenario 3A No-Build Model 2 68,526,872 2,310,855 31.90 Scenario 3B No-Build Model 3 68,595,464 2,315,155 31.89 Scenario 4 Build Model 68,547,400 2,301,286 31.90

When comparing the No Build scenarios with and without Parramore Road (3B and 3A), the benefits of building Parramore Road are realized through a reduction in the amount of travel in the network, savings in the total travel time and an improvement in the average speed of travel in the network.

When comparing the No Build scenario 2 with the No Build scenario 3B that includes committed improvements to the network, the total amount of travel in the network increases with increased mobility from the improvements and the amount of delay in the network declines, but the average speed increases.

When comparing the Build Scenario that includes construction of the Wells Road and Collins Road extension with the No Build scenario 2, these improvements are justified in terms of savings in the amount of travel, reduction in the amount of travel time, and an improvement in the average speed of travel in the network.


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet

ARGYLE TRAFFIC STUDY NERPM Model Volumes - Shift in Traffic Between the No-Build Model 1 and No-Build Model 3

(With and Without I-295/Collins Road Interchange)

Figure 14

38

Parramore Road

Legend

Proposed ImprovementsMajor Roadways

Decrease in Volume

Increase in Volume

Volume Difference Range

>-20,000

-20,000 to -10,000

-10,000 to -5,000

-5,000 to -3,000-3,000 to -1,500-1,500 to 00 to 1,5001,500 to 3,0003,000 to 5,000

5,000 to 10,000

10,000 to 20,000

>20,000


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet

ARGYLE TRAFFIC STUDY NERPM Model Volumes - Shift in Traffic Between the No-Build Model 2 & No-Build Model 3

(With and Without Parramore Road)

Figure 15

39

Legend


Decrease in Volume

Increase in Volume


>-20,000

-20,000 to -10,000

-10,000 to -5,000

-5,000 to -3,000-3,000 to -1,500-1,500 to 00 to 1,5001,500 to 3,0003,000 to 5,000

5,000 to 10,000

10,000 to 20,000

>20,000


§̈¦295Æ%23

Æ%23

Æ%21

Æ%21

Argyle Fore

st Boulevard



Old

Mid

dle

burg

Ro

ad

S

Oa

kle

af

Villa

ge P

ark

way

Bra

na

n F

ield

Ch

aff

ee

Ro

ad

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Sh

ind

ler

Dri

ve

Collins Road

Collins Road

Collins Road

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Park City Drive

Ric

ke

r R

oa

d

Wells Road

Bla

nd

ing B

oule

vard

§̈¦295

Ra

mp

art

Ro

ad

Youngerman Circle

Staples Mill Drive

Ch

esw

ick

Oa

k A

ve

nu

e

We

stp

ort

Ro

ad

§̈¦295

4 0 500 1,000 1,500

Feet

ARGYLE TRAFFIC STUDY NERPM Model Volumes - Shift in Traffic Between the Build Model & No-Build Model 3

(With and Without Wells Road & Branan Field Chaffee Interchange)

Figure 16

40

Parramore Road

Legend


Decrease in Volume

Increase in Volume


>-20,000

-20,000 to -10,000

-10,000 to -5,000

-5,000 to -3,000-3,000 to -1,500-1,500 to 00 to 1,5001,500 to 3,0003,000 to 5,000

5,000 to 10,000

10,000 to 20,000

>20,000


41

7. Summary of Needs Through the analysis of the existing traffic operations and safety conditions for this project, the following needs and deficiencies were identified:

Blanding Boulevard and Argyle Forest Boulevard are highly congested roadways with LOS below the existing standard. Significant crash histories were also observed at key locations. Other connecting roadways are significantly impacted by the congestion on these roadways as a result of queue spillback that forms during congested periods such that the LOS alone does not fully capture the operational deficiencies in the area.

The pedestrian and bicycle QOS within the study area are deficient on several facilities. As part of providing a total mobility approach within this community, additional improvements to enhance multimodal transportation options should be considered. These improvements will also support the planned expansion of transit services within the area on Blanding Boulevard.

Most of the major facilities within the study area experience crash rates above the statewide average for the facility type and area type. Factors that contribute to these deficiencies include poor operating conditions and significant queue spillback from one intersection location to the next. This congestion results in conditions that frustrate drivers who in response drive more aggressively than in other conditions.

8. New Capacity Alternatives When future conditions are analyzed with the proposed improvements to I-295 to construct a collector-distributor road and new interchange at Collins Road are considered, significant shifts in traffic occur that provide some congestion relief to Blanding Boulevard and Argyle Forest Boulevard, but also create additional deficiencies above the projects currently planned or under consideration. The proposed improvements include:

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard between SR 23 (Branan Field/Chaffee) and Old Middleburg Road from four to six lanes

Widen Old Middleburg Road between Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road from four to six lanes

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard from Cheswick Oaks Avenue to SR 21 (Blanding Blvd) from four to six lanes

Widen Youngerman Circle from four to six lanes

Extend Collins Road from Old Middleburg Road to SR 23 as a four-lane facility

Extend Wells Road from Blanding Boulevard to Argyle Forest Boulevard as a four-lane facility

Table 21 summarizes the costs of the recommended capacity improvements for additional consideration and supporting information is provided in Appendix D. These improvements are shown on Figure 17. Figure 18 shows the total future network if these improvements and other planned improvements are implemented. The known environmental features that may are involved with each concept alternative are also shown on Figure 18.


42

Table 21. Summary of Recommended Capacity Improvement Costs Argyle Forest Between SR 23 (Branan Field Chaffee Road) and Old Middleburg Road

Construction $ 8,616,413.35 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 861,641.33 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 861,641.33 Right of Way $ 1,723,282.67 Total Project Costs: $ 12,062,978.68

Old Middleburg Road between Argyle Forest Boulevard and Collins Road Construction $ 4,639,607.19 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 463,960.72 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 463,960.72 Right of Way $ 927,921.44 Total Project Costs: $ 6,495,450.06

Argyle Forest from Cheswick Oaks Avenue to SR 21 (Blanding Blvd) Construction $ 33,316,190.36 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 3,331,619.04 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 3,331,619.04 Right of Way $ 6,663,238.07 Total Project Costs: $ 46,642,666.50

Wells Road Extension Construction $ 21,101,148.75 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 2,110,114.88 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 2,110,114.88 Right of Way $ 11,518,000.00 Total Project Costs: $ 36,839,378.50

Youngerman Circle Construction $ 2,938,314.33 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 293,831.43 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 293,831.43 Right of Way $ 587,662.87 Total Project Costs: $ 4,113,640.06

Collins Road extension from Old Middleburg Road to SR 23 (Branan Field Chaffee Road) Construction $ 11,825,659.82 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 1,182,565.98 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 1,182,565.98 Right of Way $ 4,730,263.93 Total Project Costs: $ 18,921,055.70

Interchange at Collins Road Extension with SR 23 (Branan Field Chaffee Road) Construction $ 32,477,193.18 Engineering at 10% of Construction $ 3,247,719.32 CEI at 10% of Construction $ 3,247,719.32 Right of Way $ 3,247,719.32 Total Project Costs: $ 45,468,070.46

The total estimated cost of these improvements is $170.6 million.


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Environmental Features Screening Map

Figure 19

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Parramore Road

Legend

Proposed ImprovementsMajor RoadwaysArcheaeological Features

") Historical structures

Brown Fields

# Contamination Sites

A -Special flood hazard area inundated by 100-year floodAE-Special flood hazard area inundated by 100-year flood

Wetlands


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9. Short-Term Safety and Operational Alternatives Several operational and safety strategies were evaluated. These included roadway improvements, traffic signal system improvements, changes in traffic signal timings and patterns at individual signals, and construction of new signals.

9.1 Roadway Improvements

Each of the major intersections within the study were evaluated based on field review and review of proposed plans to determine if there were roadway design or other physical features that may be contributing factors to the crash history. Based on these cursory reviews, there were no significant deficiencies in the design when compared to existing standards.

However, based on a site visit and a review of aerial photography, there were some potential intrusions of landscaping and fencing into the intersection sight triangles at several of the intersections. Sight triangle diagrams were developed and analyzed and are included in Appendix E. Based on this analysis, the following improvements are recommended:

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road – remove landscaping in medians on Argyle Forest Boulevard on both approaches to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road –remove landscaping in median on Argyle Forest Boulevard east approach to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Staples Mill Drive – remove landscaping in median on Argyle Forest Boulevard east approach to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive – remove landscaping in median on Argyle Forest Boulevard east approach to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Cheswick Oaks Avenue – remove landscaping in median on Argyle Forest Boulevard east approach to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Spencer Trace Drive – remove landscaping in median on Argyle Forest Boulevard on both approaches to the intersection.

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Rampart Road – Property owner fences intrude into the sight triangle on the east approach. Additional right of way should be acquired or right-turns on red should be prohibited. In addition the signal cabinet in the southwest quadrant of the intersection may need to be relocated to a location outside of the sight triangle.

Collins Road at Blanding Boulevard – remove landscaping on west approach of Collins Road between the existing sidewalk and back of curb.

Collins Road at Rampart Road - Property owner fences intrude into the sight triangle on three approaches. Additional right of way should be acquired or right-turns on red should be prohibited.

The estimated costs for removing the landscaping at each intersection is $5,000 per intersection or $35,000 total.

Since acquiring right of way at this time is not recommended, the traffic signal heads and timing at the two intersections with physical intrusions in the sight triangle should be


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considered. The estimated cost for these signalization improvements is $15,000 at each intersection, or $30,000 total.

Based on data collected in Florida on other locations, these improvements to enhance sight distance at the intersections could result in a 24% reduction in crashes within the intersections for the movements enhanced.

9.2 Arterial Traffic Management System Improvements

Recently the City of Jacksonville installed new traffic signal controllers on Argyle Forest Boulevard that have improved traffic operations. However, these signals are currently not interconnected and a fiber optic network and coordinated traffic signal system should be considered for the following roadways:

Argyle Forest

Collins Road

Rampart Road

Youngerman Circle

The estimated costs for deployment of a fiber optic network to interconnect these signals is $300,000.

This coordinated signal system can be linked to the interconnect fiber on Blanding Boulevard. Based on other studies performed in Florida, this improvement could result in a 52% reduction in fatal crashes at these intersections.

9.3 Traffic Signal Modifications

In addition to connecting and coordinating the operations of the traffic signal system within the area, modifications to traffic signal timing phases at five signalized intersections were analyzed:

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Branan Field Chaffee Road

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Old Middleburg Road

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Shindler Drive

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Rampart Road

Collins Road and Rampart Road

The alternatives evaluated include eliminating permitted left turn movements from the signal phasing and re-balancing delays to achieve acceptable LOS. In order to achieve this, a protected left turn warrant analysis was performed to justify eliminating the permitted or permitted-protected left turn movements. The criteria for warrants for protected left turn phasing were derived from the following:

ITE Traffic Control Devices Handbook (sec. 4c-1)

o Greater than four crashes in one year associated one permitted left-turn movement


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o Greater than six crashes in two years associated with one permitted left-turn movement

o Greater than six crashes associated with permitted left-turns in either direction in one year.

ITE Traffic Engineering Handbook, pg. 295 'Left-turn Signal phasing

o The ''Left Turning Delay'' is 2.9 vehicle hours which is greater than 2 vehicle hours, the minimum for protected only phasing.

ITE Traffic Control Devices Handbook (sec. 4c-1)

o The demand for permitted left turns is greater than 50 vehicles per hour.

ITE Traffic Control Devices Handbook (sec. 4c-1).

o The average delay for permitted left turns is greater than 35 seconds.

ITE Traffic Engineering Handbook, pg. 295 'Left-turn Signal phasing'.

o The product of left turn movements and conflicting through movements is greater than 100,000 vehicles per day

Table 22 summarizes the results of the protected left turn warrant analysis.

Table 22. Protected Left Turn Warrant Analysis

Signalized Intersection Left Turn Movements

Number of Warrants

Met

Protected Left Turn

Movement Warranted?

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road

Southbound 5 of 5 Yes Northbound 5 of 5 Yes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road

Westbound 2 of 5 No Eastbound 3 of 5 Yes

Southbound 4 of 5 Yes Northbound 3 of 5 Yes

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Schindler Drive Eastbound 4 of 5 Yes Argyle Forest Boulevard at Rampart Road Westbound 1 of 5 No Eastbound 4 of 5 Yes Collins Road at Rampart Road Southbound 4 of 5 Yes Bold and Italics: Protected left turn movement not warranted

The protected left turn warrant analysis summary illustrated in Table 22 shows that the majority of permitted or permitted-protected left turn movements are warranted to be protected. Although the warrants were not met for the two left turn movements, they were analyzed as protected left turn movements to correspond to the opposing protected left turn movements. This change caused marginal to no effect in the signal operational analysis results. The results of the protected left turn warrant analysis are provided in Appendix F.

Table 23 compares the LOS before and after the safety improvements made to the signalized intersections. The results of the signalized intersection analysis in the after condition showed


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marginal to no effect on the level of service compared to the before condition. The SYNCHRO results of the after condition operational analysis is provided in Appendix F.

Table 23. Level of Service Changes Before and After Safety Improvements Signalized

Intersection Safety Improvements AM LOS PM LOS

Before After Before After

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Branan Field Chaffee Road

1. Southbound and northbound left turn movement protected

D E D F 2. Southbound and northbound right turn movement protected

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Old Middleburg Road

1. All four directions left turn movements protected

D D D E 2. All four directions right turn movements protected

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Shindler Drive

1. Eastbound left turn movement protected C D D D 2. Southbound left and right turn movement

protected

Argyle Forest Boulevard at Rampart Road

1. All four directions left turn movements protected

C D D E 2. All four directions right turn movements protected

Collins Road at Rampart Road

1. Southbound and northbound left turn movement protected D D D E 2. Northbound right turn movement protected

Bold and Italics: LOS deterioration

In addition to evaluating modifications to the existing signals to improve safety, signal warrant analyses was performed at Argyle Forest Boulevard and Staple Mills Drive (warranted based on 5 of 8 criteria) and Argyle Forest Boulevard at Spencer Trace Drive which does not warrant a signal at this time. The signal warrant analyses are provided in Appendix F.

The estimated cost for these signalization improvements is $15,000 at each intersection or $75,000 total.

Based on data collected in Florida at similar locations, these improvements to restrict permitted left-turns at the intersections could result in a 26% reduction in crashes within the intersections for crashes associated with the left-turn movements.

9.4 Targeted Enforcement

Implementing additional enforcement within an area that experiences high crash rates is an effective measure in reducing the severity and frequency of crashes. National Cooperative Highway Research (NCHRP) Project 500, Guidance for Implementation of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan provides the following guidance.

Studies report the reduction of traffic law violations when enforcement is used (Traffic Engineering Handbook [Pline, 1999]). Traffic law enforcement agencies will often select locations for targeted enforcement when crash, citation, or other sources of information suggest that the site is unusually hazardous due to illegal driving practices, such as speeding or red-light running. These actions can lead to rear-end, head-on, sideswipe, angle, and pedestrian or bicycle-related crashes. . .


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. . . Targeted enforcement of traffic laws is a short-term, moderate-cost measure to address site specific signalized intersection safety. Though this is an effective strategy, the effectivenesshas often been found to be short-lived. It is difficult—if not impossible—to provide constant enforcement of traffic regulations due to funding and staffing reasons, so periodic enforcement may be necessary to sustain the effectiveness of this strategy.

The decision to enhance enforcement within the area should be developed with the Jacksonville Sherriff Office (JSO) and other law enforcement personnel.

More permanent enforcement strategies may include automated red-light running which is currently being tested at several intersections within the region.

The costs of short-term enhanced enforcement will be determined based on the final plan and program developed by the JSO. For the purposes of this report, the estimated costs for a short-term program is estimated as $15,000.

Based on data provided by the NHTSA, the short-term reduction of crashes from one of these programs is 20-35% or more.

9.5 Public Information Campaigns

Based on the analysis of the crash history within the project area, the frequency of crashes is significantly greater than anticipated when compared to other similar roadways throughout Florida. The high frequency of crashes within the study area are indicative of a cluster of aggressive driving that is occurring as a result of the high congestion levels within the area, particularly on Blanding Boulevard. Based on statistics provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), aggressive driving is defined as:

Aggressive driving has become a serious problem on our roadways. What is aggressive driving? Most of us know it when we see it, but NHTSA, after discussions with law enforcement and the judiciary, defines aggressive driving as occurring when "an individual commits a combination of moving traffic offenses so as to endanger other persons or property. . .

NHTSA data suggests that one-third of traffic crashes and two-thirds of resulting deaths can be attributed to aggressive driving.

The use of targeted public information and education campaigns have been proven to provide a positive impact on driver awareness and reduce crash rates in other areas. NCHRP Project 500, Guidance for Implementation of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan provides the following guidance.

Providing targeted public information and education (PI&E) on safety problems at intersections is a preventive measure that can help improve driver compliance with traffic control devices and traffic laws. PI&E programs generally add effectiveness to targeted enforcement programs, as well. Another option is to develop public information campaigns aimed at specific drivers who violate regulations at intersections, even though it is often difficult to identify and focus upon a subset of the driving population using a specific intersection. Therefore, an areawide program is often the preferred approach. A key to success for this strategy is reaching as much of the targeted audience as possible, whether it is through television, radio, distribution of flyers, driver education classes, or other methods. Targeted drivers need to be defined both in terms of the location of the hazardous intersection(s) and the attributes of the drivers who may have been identified as over represented in the population involved in crashes. More information on public


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information that is targeted at specific drivers is provided in the guide for crashes occurring at unsignalized intersections.

Examples of public information campaigns that have been developed in other areas or nationally to address specific targeted are available at the following locations:

http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/aggressive/Aggressive%20Web/index.html

http://www.smoothoperatorprogram.com/

http://www.ndctsp.org/

http://www.DontDriveStupid.com/

http://www.distraction.gov/

We recommend the North Florida TPO consider developing an aggressive driving public information and education campaign for the region and specific target with enhanced communications within the Argyle area. Since the content of these programs can vary widely to include television, web, print and billboard placement of media, additional analysis is needed to define the most effective scope of and costs a campaign. For the purposes of this report, a campaign of $150,000 is estimated for planning purposes.

10. Summary Through the analysis of the existing traffic operations and safety conditions for this project, the following needs and deficiencies were identified:

Blanding Boulevard and Argyle Forest Boulevard are highly congested roadways with LOS below the existing standard and significant crash histories observed at key locations. Other connecting roadways are significantly impacted by the congestion on these roadways as a result of queue spillback that forms during congested periods such that the LOS alone does not fully capture the operational deficiencies in the area.

The pedestrian and bicycle QOS within the study area are deficient on several facilities. As part of providing a total mobility approach within this community, additional improvements to enhance multimodal transportation options should be considered. These improvements will also support the planned expansion of transit services within the area on Blanding Boulevard.

Most of the major facilities within the study area experienced crash rates above the statewide average for the facility type and area type. Factors that contribute to these deficiencies include the poor operating conditions and significant queue spillback from one intersection location to the next. This congestion results in conditions that frustrate drivers who in response drive more aggressively than in other conditions.

Based on the needs identified as part of this project, alternatives were evaluated and a series of potential projects are recommended. These projects include additional capacity improvements, short-term operational and safety improvements, enhanced enforcement and a public information and education campaign. A summary of the recommendations are provide in Table 24.

The next steps to implementing these strategies would include programming the projects in the Transportation Improvement Program or Unified Work Program to fund the implementation.


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Table 24. Summary of Recommendations

Strategy CostsCapacity Improvements

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard - (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)SR 23 to Old Middleburg Road

$12.1 million

Widen Old Middleburg Road - (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)Argyle Forest Boulevard to Collins Road

$6.5 million

Widen Argyle Forest Boulevard - (4-Lane to 6-Lane Facility)Cheswick Oaks Avenue to SR 21

$46.7 million

Widen Youngerman Circle - (2-Lane to 4-Lane Facility)Argyle Forest Boulevard to Parramore Road

$4.1 million

Extend Collins Road - (New 4-Lane Facility)Old Middleburg Road to SR 23 (New interchange at SR 23)

$64.4 million

Extend Wells Road - (New 4-Lane Facility)Blanding Boulevard to Argyle Forest Boulevard

$36.8 million

Subtotal $170.6 million

Short-Term Operational And Safety Improvements Removal of landscaping at various intersections to enhance sight distance

$35,000

Traffic signal phasing to restrict permitted left-turn movements and right-turn on red movements

$105,000

Deploy interconnected signal network $300,000Enhanced enforcement $15,000Aggressive driving public information and education campaign $150,000Subtotal $605,000


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11. Benefit Cost Analysis A benefit cost analysis was prepared for each of the capacity projects as a standalone project. The capacity projects are summarized in Table 25.

Table 25. Summary of Benefit Cost Analysis for Capacity Improvements

Description Total Benefits

Total Costs

Job Creation/ Preservation

Benefits (Per Year of

Construction)

Benefits/Costs Ratio Rank

Parramore Road Connection 270,733,645 4,000,000 25.0 67.68 1

Youngerman Circle 119,445,079 4,100,000 25.0 29.13 2

Argyle Forest Boulevard (Cheswick Oak Avenue to SR 21)

191,201,724 46,700,000 284.0 4.09 3

New Collins Road Interchange 112,826,680 64,400,000 391.0 1.75 4

Wells Road Extension 52,135,550 36,800,000 224.0 1.42 5

Argyle Forest Boulevard (SR 23 to Old Middleburg Road)

(3) 12,100,000 74.0 (3) 6

Old Middleburg Road (3) 6,500,000 40.0 (4) 7

Source: HNTB Notes: (1) $55,000.00 per job (Source: FHWA Tiger Grant Application Process) (2) 3 Year Construction Period (3) Based on the long-range modeling, no independent benefits were received from these

projects as a standalone project. However, in conjunction with the other projects, a positive benefit cost ratio was achieved.

The safety improvement projects are identified in Table 26. Each of the safety improvement projects has a positive benefit cost ratio.


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Table 26. Summary of Benefit Cost Analysis for Short Term Intersection Improvements

Intersection Total Benefits

Total Costs

Job Creation/ Preservation

Benefits (Per Year of

Construction)

Benefits/Costs Ratio Rank

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Old Middleburg Road $585,206 $4,316 1.0 135.61 1

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Cheswick Oak Avenue $372,023 $3,699 1.0 100.57 2

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Rampart Road $380,128 $4,316 1.0 88.08 3

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Shindler Drive $319,197 $3,699 1.0 86.29 4

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Branan Field Chaffee Road $293,531 $3,699 1.0 79.35 5

Rampart Road & Collins Road $134,307 $3,699 1.0 36.31 6

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Spencer Trace Drive $104,972 $36,990 1.0 2.84 7

Argyle Forest Boulevard and Staples Mill Drive $76,368 $36,990 1.0 2.06 8

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