10 food jss - Michigan State University · Food introduction - 21 3P Sustainable? • Profit:...
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GLOBAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL SYSTEMS Food Spring 2019
Transcript of 10 food jss - Michigan State University · Food introduction - 21 3P Sustainable? • Profit:...
GLOBAL SYSTEMSGLOBAL SYSTEMS
FoodSpring 2019
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Where we areWhere we are
Environment
Economics
Engineered Systemso Urbanization
oFoodo Watero Energy
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Why Food is an issueWhy Food is an issue
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Current World Population
7,691,652, 800
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means……..
• Demand for more food, safer food, healthier food, more sustainable food
• Competition for declining resources—water, energy, land• A heightened disconnect between metropolitan needs and
existing food/ag systems Spatial Ecological Economic Socio-cultural
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Listen to one Expert
https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_foley_the_other_inconvenient_truth
Jonathan Foley is the director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of the Minnesota, and professor and McKnight Presidential Chair in the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior.
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Why does it matter?
• We will have to double food production while using no more land and water.
• Norman Borlaug quote: To feed our growing global population, we
will have to produce the same amount of food in the next 40 years that we previously produced in the last 10,000 years.
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Sustainability as a Wicked Problem
• We are increasingly asked to deliver products and services related to “wicked problems.” (Rittel & Weber; Conklin).
Wicked Problems SustainabilityNo definitive formulation of the
problem exits. Prosperity, People, Planet
Solutions are not true or false, but better or worse. Can’t know if truly sustainable
Stakeholders have radically different frames of reference.
Businesses = prosperityEnvironmental groups = planetSocial justice groups = people
System components & cause/effect relationships are uncertain.
Consider the claim: small is sustainable, large is not.
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The Problem with Wicked Problems
• Bottom line: Wicked problems are not solved, but managed. By taking actions toward desired
outcomes:o System: Have system components moved in a
better direction?o Process: Has there been responsiveness to
the stakeholders who can veto as well as enable?
Fundamental need to attend to both System and process.
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Impacts?
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Stakeholder Process?
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When you put multiple impacts (3 P’s) and multiple stakeholders together, what does managing sustainability look like?
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The Crux of Managing WPs
• If you only care about the impacts, potential solutions will never be implemented because of one or more stakeholder vetoes.
• If you only care about the stakeholder process, potential solutions will never be implemented because of endless debate.
• Only by taking on impacts and stakeholder process simultaneouslycan you make progress.
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New Knowledge Is the Key
• Each stakeholder brings existing knowledge.
• However, existing explicit and tacit knowledge are deficient. Existing knowledge is
suspect to other stakeholders.
Existing knowledge freezes tradeoffs in place.
• Only new knowledge can overcome these deficiencies. Co-creation brings
process legitimacy. System innovation
has the potential to turn tradeoffs into complements.
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Managing Sustainability
• Serious management of sustainability involves: Focus on all the impact outcomes
o People = Socialo Planet = Environmentalo Prosperity = Economic
Focus on process outcomeso All stakeholders present—knowledge institutions,
entrepreneurs/ businesses, society representatives, and government.
o All stakeholders engaged in innovation through new knowledge creation and experimentation.
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Examples of Managing Sustainability
• Brazil’s Sugar Cane Industry
• Great Lakes Agriculture and Water
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0
5
10
15
20
25
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0 5 10 15 20 251980 1990 2000
Ener
gy C
ost (
$ pe
r gJ)
Brazilianethanol
Gasoline inRotterdam
Source: Goldemberg, 2003
Example 1: Brazil Sugar Industry
Prosperity P
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Brazilian Cane Processor
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Delivering Sustainability• Reduction in GHG emissions Substituting fossil fuels (50% of gasoline
consumption in volume) Energy balance 7x better
than corn EtOH.
• Mitigating global warming Favorable energy balance Productivity gains
• Low input use at farm level• Reduction in soil erosion• Decreasing use of water in cane mills
ALL ABOUT THE PLANET P
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Machine Harvesting of Cane
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3P Sustainable?• Profit: Improved Free from importing energy Capable of exporting energy
• Planet: Improved 9 barrels of oil equivalent for every barrel put
into industry Elimination of burning cane fields
• People: ??? Positive impacts for profit and planet Tens of thousands of uneducated, unskilled
workers being put out of work in rural Brazil
Brazilian Sugar Industry has made great progress, but no silver bullet has emerged!
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New Efforts on Sustainability
• National Agreement to Enhance Work Conditions in the Sugar Cane Industry (signed June 2009) Ministry of Labor (Federal Government) UNICA Workers Unions
• Best practices go beyond labor laws: Certificate of Conformity
• Education, training and placement assistance to 7,000 workers/year
ALL ABOUT THE PEOPLE P
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Problems in the Great Lakes
• Nutrient releases have been linked to toxic algae blooms in Great Lakes
• Farms have been cited as the primary source of nonpoint source pollution
• Runoff is considered the primary issue.
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming & History
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming & History
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming & History
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming & History
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• Nutrient releases have been linked to toxic algae blooms in Great Lakes
• Non-point sources are the predominant total P loading component to Lake Erie
• Farms have been cited as the primary source of nonpoint source pollution
Annual total phosphorus load to Lake Erie. (Scavia et al. 2014)Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Central basin
hypoxia
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Total P doesn’t seem to be a good enough metric….
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2003
20142015
2011
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Soluble P may be the missing link
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming
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A quick primer on Great Lakes Farming
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Dye Tracer Studies Method
1. Select 1 m x 1 m field soil plots, treat with 7 mm of blue dye, and irrigated overnight.
2. Excavate the test plot was excavated to a depth of 1 m after 12 hours of irrigation and photograph. • Grid is 1 m x 1 m with 10 cm
squares. • No less than 3 excavations
and pictures are performed for each plot.
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Dye Tracer Studies Method
3. Use image processing software to de-skew in accordance with the grid pattern in order to avoid any issues with parallax induced error.
4. Enhance colors to optimize visibility of the blue dye.5. Remove gridlines.
6. Normalized image to 1000 by 1000 pixels.
7. Convert all green and blue pixels to white and all other pixels to black.
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Dye Tracer Method Continued:Length
• Columns of filled image are summed
• Sums are smoothed via averaging and local maxima are found.
• Maxima > ksat depth for 12 hrs = preferential flow
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Dye Tracer Studies Results
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Sustainability as a Wicked Problem
• We are increasingly asked to deliver products and services related to “wicked problems.” (Rittel & Weber; Conklin).
Wicked Problems SustainabilityNo definitive formulation of the
problem exits. Prosperity, People, Planet
Solutions are not true or false, but better or worse. Can’t know if truly sustainable
Stakeholders have radically different frames of reference.
Businesses = prosperityEnvironmental groups = planetSocial justice groups = people
System components & cause/effect relationships are uncertain.
Consider the claim: small is sustainable, large is not.
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Relevance to Engineering
• The “hardware” of managing sustainability in the global ag-food-bio system will demand engineering innovation and implementation.
• But hardware alone will not be enough. Software and orgware Sustainability will require:
o All three P’s: Prosperity, People and Planeto Multi-stakeholder creation of new knowledge and innovation
Engineers must be at the table, and they need to be responsive to the needs of the 3Ps and all the stakeholders
• Sustainability has to be real. Easy solutions cannot be real. One-sided solutions cannot be real. Mere claims of “good science” cannot be real. 3 Ps, multi-stakeholder, new knowledge, and innovation can be real.
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Relevance to Engineering• In whatever role you play in the future, keep an open
mind and be guided by new knowledge and innovation. Put aside old myths about what is and isn’t sustainable. We will need a whole host of system innovations.
o Large scale and small scaleo Plant and animalo Local and globalo Community-based and commercial/industrialo Rural and urban
• Recall where we began. In the next 40 years we will need to produce as much food
as we have produced in the last 10,000. This is a wicked problem to manage with great care, broad
participation and innovation.
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Input Suppliers
Ag Producers
Assemblers/Handlers
Food Mfrs./ProcessorsBiorefineries
Food RetailersBio Retailers
Bio Mfrs./Wholesalers/Dists.
Consumers
Food Wholesalers/Distributors
BIOEC
ONOM
YFO
OD ECO
NOM
Y
AG ECONOMY
Agri-Food-Bio Supply Chain
