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Using Transit Market Analysis Tools to Evaluate Transit Service

Improvements for a Regional Transportation Plan

TRB Transportation Applications May 20, 2009

By: Mark Charnews, PhD & Jennifer Ryan, PEPuget Sound Regional Council

Liam HonCambridge Systematics, Inc.

Puget Sound Regional Council

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PSRC Integrated Urban Models

Integrated Models Simulating Persons and Vehicles at a Parcel Level

Regional Economic Forecasts

Land Use Forecasts

Travel Forecasts

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Transport System

Geodatabase

Hybrid ActivityUrbanSim

PSEF

BCA

Air Quality Analysis

EPA MOVES

Alternatives Development

ProjectsTOM

IDAS TCI/SPT

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T2040 Alternatives Development Tools

Regional Customization of Various Modeling Tools: Market Segmentation

Attitudinal preference analysis from 2006 Household Survey.

Transit Competitive IndexDemand based automated process to combine Census and Employment block data with results of market segmentation to identify most transit competitive O-D pairs within a corridor.

Sketch Planning Tool – Market AnalysisSupply based automated process to evaluate changes in ridership within a corridor’s O-D pairings based on travel time changes for all

routes.

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Need for Travel Flexibility

Attitudinal Factorsfrom 2006 PSRC Household Survey

Time Sensitivity

Transit Receptiveness

Comfort and Time Use

Environmental Consciousness

Travel Stress

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Market Segmentation

Transit Receptive

All Travelers in the Puget Sound Region

High Transit Receptiveness Low Transit ReceptivenessMedium Transit Receptiveness

Need forTravelFlexibility

MarketSegment

Low Need forFlexibility

High Need forFlexibility

Low Need For Flexibility

Medium NeedFor Flexibility

HighComfort

Time Use

Medium Comfort

Time Use

High Comfort

Time Use

Low Comfort

Time Use

ProductiveRiders

RoutineRiders

ComfortableMovers

MobileRiders

Comfort and Time Use

Low Comfort

Time Use

Medium Comfort

Time Use

Easy Goers

No Frills 9To 5’ers

Low Comfort

Time Use

Medium Comfort

Time Use

ComfortableDrivers

High Need for Flexibility

Multi-tripDrivers

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Market Segment Size

8%

8.9%

12%

15.1%

10%

6.2%

0%

22.7%

0%

19.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

ProductiveRiders

MobileRiders

RoutineRiders

ComfortableMovers

Easy Goers

No Frills 9 To 5ers

Multi-tripDrivers

ComfortableDrivers

Perc

en

t In

cid

en

ce

30%

5.2%

20%

22%

30%

4%

34%

12%10%

0% 0%

Transit Percentage

6%

14.1%

6%

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Interpreting the Transit Competitiveness Index (TCI)

• TCI shows how competitive transit is relative to auto

• TCI utilizes road network not transit availability

• TCI > 100 is transit competitive

• TCI is proportional to the TAZ’s ability to generate transit trips

Transit competitive

0

1-50

50-100

100-200

200-500

500-2,000

>2,000

TCI

TCI

Production Trip Density

Attraction Trip Density

Market Segment Concentration

Household Income

Trip Purposes

Congestion

Parking Cost

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Work Trips to Bellevue

TCI Results:

• Bellevue/Redmond corridor very strong work attractor on Eastside

• Surprisingly strong attraction from North and West Seattle (limited thru bus connections currently)

Bellevue

Redmond/Microsoft

273

571

400 396

958

658711

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Seat

tle C

BD

N. S

eattle

QA/M

agno

lia

Belle

vue

CBD

Kirk

land

S. B

ellevu

e

Redm

ond

TCI

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origin

destination

Transit Sketch Planning Tool

• Applies results of market research– Stores existing mode shares– Matches markets with transit service– Segments markets geographically– Inputs service scenarios– Outputs ridership

Existing service

New direct service

bus ridership: +100 dailydrive alone: -100 daily

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SPT Example Ballard to Bellevue CBD

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Level of Service Menu

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Use of Level of Service Parameters

• Bus Rapid Transit – decrease in-vehicle time, increase walk distance both peak and offpeak

• Transit Signal Priority – decrease in-vehicle time

• Stop Consolidation – increase walk time, decrease in-vehicle time

• Fare Change – change travel cost by transit

• Auto Congestion – increase in-vehicle time auto

• Direct Transit Service – decrease transfers, decrease in-vehicle time

Examples of Transit Service impacts on Level of Service Parameters:

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Transit Level of Service Peak

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Results Summary

Trip Changes

Local Bus (WA) Decrease Transit In-vehicle Time: 5 minutesDecrease Transit Wait Time: 15 minutesDecrease Transfers: 1

Other HBWOff Peak Before After Change Before After Change

Local Bus (WA) 10 30 197% 5 26 428%Local Bus (DA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0%Premium Bus (WA) 1 1 N/A 1 1 N/APremium Bus (DA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0%Auto 162 142 -12% 72 52 -29%

Other HBWPeak Before After Change Before After Change

Local Bus (WA) 2 7 205% 26 86 228%Local Bus (DA) 0 0 0% 2 1 -58%Premium Bus (WA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0%Premium Bus (DA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0%Auto 51 46 -10% 170 111 -35%

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Identified Transit Corridors for Bellevue Example

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Transit Facilities Example

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TCI and SPT Applications

• Used for Transportation 2040 Long Range Plan Update

• Used to develop ridership estimates for BNSF Commuter Rail Feasibility Study

• Will be used to develop transit service for Bellevue Multimodal Concurrency Study

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Questions

For more information, contact:

Mark Charnews, PhD Senior Modeler

Puget Sound Regional Council

mcharnews@psrc.org

206-971-3285

Jennifer Ryan, PE Principal Planner

jryan@psrc.org

206-405-0542

Liam HonAssociate

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

lhon@camsys.com

206-327-9962