1

Roger Derrien

Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P

Lucent Technologies

Roger Derrien

Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P

Lucent Technologies

2

What are our end-users expecting?

What are our end-users expecting?

3

Is it UMTS? What’s that!

Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either.

Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing.

Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications?Yes, most definitely!!

4

Wireless Usage Will Soar

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/ M

inu

te o

f U

se

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Su

bs

cri

be

rs (

Mill

ion

s);

Min

ute

s o

f U

se

(B

illio

ns

)

Cost/ MOU ($)

MOU (B)

Subscribers (M)

[Source: Merrill Lynch]

Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usageRapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage

5

Wireless Market Perspective

Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone?

Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone?

Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.

Time

Premium Service

‘92 Conventional Wisdom

‘94 CW

‘97 CW

‘98CW

50% _ 40%_

30%_

20%_

10%_

0% _

% P

enet

ratio

n

Did not anticipate portable phone.

Did not anticipate pre-paid

‘99CW

Did not anticipate ???

6

How do we take them there?How do we take them there?

Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow.

Through an evolution of: Applications - internet, location based services and

transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand

Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after

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09 February, 20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

USA

Japan

Asia/Pacific

West Europe

ROW MobileSubsrciberPenetration

InternetPenetration

Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration - 2004

Source: ARC Group

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Data Rates for Wireless Services

30

Ma

ss

Mar

ket

De

ma

nd

(5

ye

ar

vie

w)

CreditCard

Verification

ShortMessageServices

RemoteOffice

IntegratedMessaging

LargeFile Transfer

MultimediaWWW

WirelessPostcard

Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized mediaaccess control necessary to assureadequate response time in highusage case.

Video/MultimediaConference

LimitedBroadcast

Video

Networkedcomputing

Fax

44-64 Kbps 144 Kbps 2 Mbps384 Kbps14.4 Kbps9.6 Kbps

Data Rate

<9.6 Kbps

E-Banking/E-Commerce

Web Clipping

InteractiveGames &

Entertainment

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• 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration– Individualized services across multiple networks– Seamless personal service delivery– Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on– m - commerce

Today’sToday’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely

business information

Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect

InternetInternetMobilityMobility

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Buildings

Computers

People

Homes Appliances

TransportationVehicles & Systems

VendingMachines

$$

....

..

Communications Network Transformation

Multiple Connections per Person Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go:

Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.

Multiple Connections per Person Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go:

Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.

IntelligentSubscriber Devices

People to PeoplePeople to People People to ThingsPeople to Things Things to ThingsThings to Things

11

Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems”

A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability.

Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA

ARIB & TTC

ANSI-41 / WIN &GSM-MAP/CAMEL

Asia/Pacific

Cdma2000 & UWC-136

ANSI-41/ WIN

TIA TR 45

North America

UTRA

GSM-MAP / CAMELEurope

ETSI

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Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research

cdmaOne Network Options

3X3X3X3X

No 3XNo 3XNo 3XNo 3X

cdmaOnecdmaOneIS-95AIS-95A

cdmaOnecdmaOneIS-95AIS-95A

1998 1999 2000 2001

1X1X1X1X

GSM Network OptionsSource: Ovum ResearchPublished: Mobile Communications International

UMTSUMTSUMTSUMTS

No UMTSNo UMTSNo UMTSNo UMTS

HSCDHSCDHSCDHSCD

GPRSGPRSGPRSGPRS

GSMGSMGSMGSM

1998 1999 2001 2003

EDGEEDGEEDGEEDGE

IS-95BIS-95BIS-95BIS-95B

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IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options

2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 ServicesExisting Spectrum

GSM900,1800

GPRS

GSM MOU

GSM

GSM 1900

GPRS

ETSIW-CDMA

3G NNIGSM N. America

Existing Spectrum New Spectrum

EDGE

IS-95A ANSI-95IS-95B

cdma2000Phase 11.25MHz

cdma2000Phase 2

5MHz

CDG

ANSI-41

New Software Changes to

BS and Mobile

New HW and/or SWNew Mobiles/Data Device

Utilize Existing Voice Channels

New Software New Circuit Packs

New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still

Compatible

New BS & SWNew Mobiles/Data Device

Utilize Existing Voice Channels

New SoftwareNew BS Modules

New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still

Compatible

New SpectrumNew Air Interface

New MobilesBackward

Compatibility with GSM-MAP

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Summary

• It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay focused on the END-USER needs

• DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user

• Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT - 2000

Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000)

Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum

Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE

• Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating