1 January 25, 20062006 Nebraska Profile 2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE Fourth Edition State, Nine Regions,...
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Transcript of 1 January 25, 20062006 Nebraska Profile 2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE Fourth Edition State, Nine Regions,...
January 25, 20062006 Nebraska Profile 1
2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE
Fourth Edition State, Nine Regions, and 93 Counties Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics, Trends, & Forecast Summary of Findings
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20062
Nine Regions and 93 Counties
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20063
Demographics: Racial Minorities still growing quickly Growth of Hispanics is strong as well
2000 2004 % Change
White 1,585,617 1,609,056 1.5% Black 70,043 74,815 6.8% All Other 55,603 63,343 13.9% Total 1,711,263 1,747,214 2.1%
Hispanic 94,425 119,975 27.1%
Nebraska Population by Race
Race
Ethnicity
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20064
Demographics: Losing population < 20 years old Seem to be gaining 20-24 and 55-64
Age 2000 Census Jul-04 % ChangeUnder 20 504,336 488,597 -3.12%20-24 120,331 136,736 13.63%25-34 223,273 229,273 2.69%35-54 489,588 493,630 0.83%55-64 141,540 167,175 18.11%65 or Older 232,195 231,803 -0.17%
Total 1,711,263 1,747,214 2.10%
Population Change by Age
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20065
Demographics: North and South declining Only urbanized counties growing:
Urban = Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy
Region 2000 Census July 2003 Est July 2004 Est Change North 390,293 385,444 383,095 -7,198 South 484,499 483,470 484,489 -10 Urban 836,471 868,561 879,630 43,159 Nebraska 1,711,263 1,737,475 1,747,214 35,951
2000 Census, 2003 and 2004 Population Estimates Regional Population Change
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20066
Demographics: Census Bureau estimates by county
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20067
Demographics: Fewer people leaving Nebraska Significant international migration
April 2000 to July 2005
Starting Population 1,711,263 Births 132,394 Deaths 80,290 Natural Increase 52,104 International Migration 22,199 Domestic Migration -26,206 Net Migration -4,007 Residual -573July 1, 2005 Population 1,758,787
CENSUS BUREAU POPULATION ESTIMATESBIRTHS, DEATHS, AND MIGRATION: 2000-2005
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20068
Demographics: IRS net migration data for Nebraska
Nebraska Net Migration by Zone2000 through 2004
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
rso
ns
North South Urban
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20069
Demographics: IRS returns and exemptions for Nebraska
Year Net Returns Total Returns Exemptions1998 -3,453 600,068 1,370,6211999 -2,950 608,292 1,380,3252000 -3,537 617,254 1,394,2642001 -4,111 622,009 1,399,1452002 -3,144 626,689 1,404,3272003 -1,507 630,009 1,415,0702004 -2,479 630,593 1,418,198
IRS Returns and Exemptions
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200610
Demographics: DMV data indicates otherwise
Quarterly Net Migration In NebraskaDrawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2004
1,477
625447
1,368
865
1,5001,367
543
-359-605
-18 -180
743
274
1,8511,674
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
01.1 01.2 01.3 01.4 02.1 02.2 02.3 02.4 03.1 03.2 03.3 03.4 04.1 04.2 04.3 04.4Year and Quarter
Ne
t D
rive
r's
Lic
en
se
s
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200611
Demographics:
Positive change strong in working years
Age 2001 2002 2003 200414-25 -1,222 1,081 1,358 36226-45 251 2,400 3,303 1,34746-65 -290 514 709 64966+ 95 282 375 357
Missing 4 -2 . -1Total -1,162 4,275 5,745 2,714
Nebr. Department of Motor Vehicles - Net ExchangedIndicators of Migration
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200612
Demographics: Positive change in South and Urban Urban has most of increase
Region 2001 2002 2003 2004 North -325 614 583 -215 South -193 781 1,236 339 Urban -616 2,867 3,960 2,619 Out of State -28 13 -34 -29 Nebraska -1,162 4,275 5,745 2,714
Driver's License Net of Exchanged and Surrendered Licenses
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200613
Demographics: PUMS data shows domestic migration
Where From… 2000 2001 2003 2004 Nebraska Intrastate 234,529 234,081 224,061 212,385 Domestic Interstate 32,606 35,868 63,717 50,285Total U.S. 267,135 269,949 287,778 262,670International 11,238 8,149 3,518 10,358Total Migration 278,373 278,098 291,296 273,028
Population Migration(Place of Residence One Year Ago)PUMS 2000, 2001, 2003, AND 2004
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200614
Demographics:
PUMS data shows
where people came
from in 2004
State 2004California 7,011Iowa 6,944Texas 5,573Kansas 4,139Florida 3,538Colorado 3,004Other States 20,076Nebraska 212,385Total 262,670
Domestic Migration
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200615
Demographics: PUMS data shows international declined
over last couple of years, up in 2004
Region 2000 2001 2003 2004Europe & Eastern Europe 450 1,846 477 2,587Central & South America 6,522 1,382 1,207 1,161Africa 422 687 233 1,854Asia 3,844 3,636 1,283 3,893Middle East . 288 108 346North America/Australia . 310 210 517Total 11,238 8,149 3,518 10,358
Population Migration - International
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200616
Economics: Employment has expanded moderately
Nebraska Full and Part-Time Employment1969-2004
650,000
750,000
850,000
950,000
1,050,000
1,150,000
1,250,000
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
Year
Em
plo
yme
nt:
Jo
bs
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200617
Economics: Nebraska business establishments
Nebraska Business Establishments1986-2003
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
Bu
sin
es
s E
sta
blis
hm
en
ts
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200618
Economics: Nebraska vs U.S. unemployment rates
Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates1978-2004
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
Nebraska Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200619
Economics: Nebraska unemployment rates by Zone
Nebraska Unemployment Rates by Zone2000 - 2004
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
North South Urban
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200620
Economics: Income – earned income per job
Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings per Job2004 Dollars
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
Re
al A
vera
ge
$
pe
r Jo
b
Earnings per Job in Nebraska Earnings per Job in U.S.
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200621
Economics: Industries with highest rates of pay Farm earnings up 154% 02-03, 8.5% 04
NAICS Categories Emp Earnings Per JobManagement of companies 14,837 1,015,771 68,462Information 23,373 1,259,267 53,877Transportation & warehousing 55,803 2,965,650 53,145Wholesale Trade 43,998 2,238,090 50,868Mining 2,520 127,575 50,625
Employment and Real Earnings per JobNebraska: BEA 2004
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200622
Economics: Per capita income keeps pace with U.S.
Nebraska vs U.S. Real per Capita Income2004 Dollars
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
Re
al p
er
Cap
ita
Inco
me
Nebraska U.S.
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200623
Economics: Personal Bankruptcies continue upward
Nebraska Personal Bankruptcies1987 Through September 2005
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
Pe
rso
nal
Ban
kru
ptc
ies
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200624
Economics: Nebraska Poverty Rates
Poverty RatesNebraska and U.S. - 1998-2003
8
9
10
11
12
13
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Po
ve
rty
Ra
te
U.S. Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200625
Housing: Housing Production: SF and MF
Total Dwelling Units Permitted in Nebraska1980 through 2004
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Year
Pe
rmit
s I
ss
ue
d
Single-family Units Total Units
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200626
Housing:With pop down, housing is up everywhere
Region 2000 2004 Change North 170,412 174,106 3,694 South 210,386 216,133 5,747 Urban 341,870 367,504 25,634 Nebraska 722,668 757,743 35,075
2000 Census and 2004 Housing Estimates Housing Unit Change by Zone
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200627
Housing: Average prices for single-family homes
Zone 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 North 66,996 67,588 72,693 74,639 78,653 83,181 South 67,630 68,191 73,377 77,460 81,279 88,307 Urban 114,143 113,358 128,058 129,124 138,363 144,876 Nebraska 91,617 91,441 102,885 105,570 113,329 119,116
Single-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal YearAverage Sales Prices in PA&T Data
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200628
Housing: Prices by County from PA&T
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200629
Housing: Size and market values per square foot
Year Built Average $ Square feet $/Sq FtBefore 1930 56,100 1,234 45.451931-1960 79,910 1,113 71.81961-1970 103,794 1,281 81.011971-1980 114,911 1,392 82.541981-1990 141,019 1,526 92.391991-2004 174,689 1,694 103.11Average 104,114 1,351 77.05
Average Price, Size, and Unit CostSingle-Family Homes
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200630
Housing: Value of Single Family Construction
Value of Single-Family Construction1980 through 2004 $138,650
60
80
100
120
140
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Re
al
Va
lue
, $
1,0
00
s
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200631
Housing: Nebraska Association of Realtors
Nebraska Association of Realtors Average Home Sales Prices
1998 through August 2005
111,442
119,552
129,499131,867
139,109142,859
156,135
123,780
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rag
e N
om
inal
Pri
ce
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200632
Housing: OFHEO – Housing Price Index
OFHEO Housing Price IndexNebraska vs U.S. 1975 through 2005: 1980 = 100
251
373
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
Pri
ce
In
de
x
Nebraska U.S.
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200633
Housing: Results from November 2005 survey Statewide vacancy rate up from 5.9%
Zone Srvys. Units 2002 2003 2004 2005 North 287 6,474 6.3 8.9 9.3 8.4 South 367 12,580 5.3 9.8 7.2 8.8 Urban 304 63,197 6.0 5.1 6.1 6.4 Nebraska 958 82,251 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.9
Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys2005 Survey Vacancy Rates
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200634
Housing: Degree of need for new construction 1 = no need; 5 = extreme need
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 North 131 43 46 21 23 South 135 54 73 33 35 Urban 164 39 40 13 13 Nebraska 430 136 159 67 71
Nebraska Rental Vacancy SurveysDegree of Need for New Units
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200635
Housing: Degree of need for new construction
Nebraska Rental SurveyNeed for New Rental Construction
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 2 3 4 5
Pe
rce
nt
Dis
trib
uti
on
2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200636
Housing: Asked for need for rehab as well Extreme need occurring more frequently
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 North 32 38 74 55 27 South 53 45 90 50 56 Urban 42 18 95 36 27 Nebraska 127 101 259 141 110
Degree of Need for Rehab of Existing Units
Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200637
Housing:Sentiment is moderate need for rehab
Nebraska Rental SurveyNeed for Rehabilitation of Existing Units
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 2 3 4 5
Pe
rce
nt
Dis
trib
uti
on
2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200638
Summary of Findings:
Population declines in rural areas Pop growth in cities and east Nebr. is more racially diverse Nebr. employment grows modestly Income rises Homeownership continues rising
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200639
Summary of Findings:
SF housing production high Homeowner prices rise everywhere Problems persist for low-income persons Emerging weakness in some rental markets
2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 200640
Summary of Findings:Changing characteristics and attributes
of market present opportunities to
realign housing resources - urban/rural Upgrades and preservation Lot production New construction in selected markets