2011 NEBRASKA PROFILE Ninth Edition

January 25, 20112011 Nebraska Profile 1

2011 NEBRASKA PROFILENinth Edition

State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes

Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings

2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20112

Eight Regions and 93 Counties


Demographics Some people leaving Nebraska? Significant migration

April 2000 – July 2009

2000 Census 1,711,263 Natural Increase 102,206 Net Migration -9,156 Residual -7,696July 1, 2009 Population 1,796,6192010 Census 1,826,341

Census Bureau Population EstimatesNatural Increase and Migration: 2000 – 2009


Demographics 1910 – 2010 Decennial Census

Nebraska Population1910 - 2010 Decennial Census

1,192

1,296

1,3781,316 1,326

1,4111,483

1,570 1,578

1,711

1,826

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Decennial Census

Po

pu

lati

on

(1

,00

0s

)


Demographics Population falling: 35-54 years old? Population increasing: 20-24 and 55-64?

Age 2000 Census 7/1/2009 Est. % ChangeUnder 20 504,336 507,731 0.7%20-24 120,331 140,703 16.9%25-34 223,273 232,221 4.0%35-54 489,588 473,803 -3.2%55-64 141,540 201,531 42.4%65 or Older 232,195 240,630 3.6%

Total 1,711,263 1,796,619 4.99%

Population Change by Age


Demographics North declining? South decreasing too, more slowly? Urbanized counties growing fastest?

Region 2000 Census July 2004 Est July 2009 Est Change North 371,513 359,845 352,433 -19,080 South 423,839 420,135 417,211 -6,628 Urban 915,911 962,204 1,026,975 111,064 Nebraska 1,711,263 1,742,184 1,796,619 85,356

Regional Population Change2000 Census, 2004 and 2009 Population Estimates


Demographics Census Bureau estimates by county


DemographicsDepartment of Motor Vehicle (DMV) data indicate modest growth

Quarterly Net Migration In NebraskaDrawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2010

888 902

1,750

1,539

35

1,6741,851

274743

-180-18

-605-359

543

1,3671,500

865

1,477

675

2,498

1,950

2,390

1,453

572 529

1,102

618892

1,1121,152

574

969

1,368

447

6251,082

1,466

2,250

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year and Quarter

Net

Dri

ver'

s L

icen

ses


Demographics Positive change strong in working years

Age 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009First Half of 2010

14-25 362 646 223 523 1,138 1,841 1,00426-45 1,347 1,802 1,499 1,465 3,829 3,678 1,71646-65 649 476 532 437 912 1,422 72566+ 357 447 676 395 404 342 268

Missing -1 -1 -3 1 2 -3 3Total 2,714 3,370 2,927 2,821 6,285 7,280 3,716

Indicators of MigrationNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles – Net Exchanged


Demographics Positive change in all regions Urban had largest increase

Region 2001 2007 2008 2009First Half of 2010

Total 2001-2010

North -318 28 757 1,073 722 2,753South -92 915 1,073 1,598 899 8,152Urban -724 1,886 4,463 4,621 2,098 27,199

Out of State -28 -8 -8 -12 -3 -133Total -1,162 2,821 6,285 7,280 3,716 37,971

Net of Exchanged & Surrendered LicensesNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles


Demographics Net Exchanged Licenses 2001 – 6/2010


Demographics

DMV data indicate people moved to Nebraska from Iowa, Colorado, Kansas and other states

State 1/2 of 2010

Iowa 1,719Colorado 1,111Kansas 951Texas 786California 775Missouri 626

Florida 616

All Other States 6,010

Total 12,594

Domestic Migration


Economics Nebraska business establishments

Nebraska Business EstablishmentsCensus Data: 1986 – 2008

52,053

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Year

Bus

ines

s E

stab

lishm

ents


Economics Employment growth softened in 2009

Nebraska Full- and Part-Time EmploymentBEA Data: 1969 – 2009

1,219,904

650,000

750,000

850,000

950,000

1,050,000

1,150,000

1,250,000

1,350,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Year

Em

plo

ym

en

t: J

ob

s


Economics High labor force participation rate

Nebraska vs. U.S. Labor Force Participation RatesBLS Data: 1998 – 2009

65.4

72.2

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

U.S. Nebraska


Economics State unemployment rates still below national rates

Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates BEA Data: 1978 – 2009

9.3

2.9

4.6

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

U.S. Unemployment Rate Nebraska Unemployment Rate


Economics Nebraska 2010 unemployment edging lower

U.S. vs. Nebraska Unemployment RateMonthly BLS Data: 2007 – 2010

4.0%

9.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep No

v

2007 2008 2009 2010

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

Nebraska U.S.


Economics Annual Unemployment Rate & Employment

State of Nebraska: 2000 – 2009

Nebraska Employment and Unemployment RateBLS Data: 2000 – 2009

938,080

4.62

900,000

910,000

920,000

930,000

940,000

950,000

960,000

970,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Employment Unemployment Rate


Economics Monthly Unemployment Rate & Employment

State of Nebraska: 2010Nebraska Employment and Unemployment Rate

BLS Data: Monthly 2010 Data

931,962

4.0

910,000

915,000

920,000

925,000

930,000

935,000

940,000

945,000

950,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Year 2010

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Employment Unemployment


Economics Real earned income per job

Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings Per JobBEA Data: 1990 – 2009, Real 2009 Dollars

44,127

50,678

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Year

Rea

l Avg

$ P

er J

ob

Nebraska USA


Economics Nebraska per capita income at parity

Nebraska vs U.S. Real Per Capita IncomeBEA Data: 1990 – 2009, Real 2009 Dollars

39,277

39,626

25,000

28,000

31,000

34,000

37,000

40,000

43,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Rea

l Per

Cap

ita

Inco

me

Nebraska USA


Housing Housing production continued to fall

Total Dwelling Units Permitted in NebraskaCensus Data: 1980 – 2009

5,150

4,552

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Per

mit

s Is

sued

Total Units Single Family Units


Housing Regional housing production also fell

Total Dwelling Units Permitted in NebraskaCensus Data: 2000 – 2009

8,5897,830

5,908

933 828 741

6,940 6,355

7,452 8,241

6,364

5,089

3,977

1,232 1,015 1,147 1,417 1,561 1,307 1,153 1,099 706 732

809 770 792 713 597 551 441

01,000

2,0003,000

4,0005,0006,000

7,0008,000

9,00010,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Urban South North


Housing Housing construction values softened

Value of Single-Family Construction 1980 – 2009

$148.90

70

90

110

130

150

170

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Rea

l Val

ue,

$1,

000s


HousingHousing stock increased statewide

Region 2000 Jul-09 % Change North 163,004 167,870 2.99 South 185,513 193,708 4.42 Urban 374,151 430,285 15.00 Nebraska 722,668 791,863 9.57

Housing Unit Change by Zone2000 Census and 2009 Housing Estimate


Housing Average prices for single-family homes

slipped a little through fiscal 2009

* Nebraska Department of Revenue: Property Assessment Division

Zone 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 North 75,781 81,506 83,497 88,126 93,474 95,245 91,866 South 75,734 83,813 86,920 90,065 96,281 99,254 95,858 Urban 137,630 147,080 154,663 160,324 159,553 155,352 153,889 Nebraska 113,329 124,211 130,199 134,494 136,019 125,725 123,047

Average Sales Prices in PAD* DataSingle-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal Year


Housing Prices by county from PAD


Housing Size of single-family homes sold rose

Average Square Foot Size of Homes Sold in Nebraska

PAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009

1,5831,616

1,755

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Before1930

1931-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2009

Year Built

Ave

rag

e sq

ft

North South Urban


Housing Single-family market value per square foot increased

Average Single-Family Prices Per Square FootPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009

39

6975

94

37

59

70 7580

95

67

9399 98

83

111

61

114

110

115

102

30

50

70

90

110

Before1930

1931-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2009

Year Built

Ave

rag

e P

rice

per

sq

ft

North South Urban


Housing Increased costs for newer homes

Average Prices of Homes Sold in NebraskaPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009

176,316184,742

201,976

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

Before1930

1931-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2009

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

North South Urban


HousingNebraska Association of Realtors


Housing Average home sale prices recovering?

Average Home Sales PricesAssociation of Realtors: 1998 - First Half of 2010

119,552

139,109146,066 146,088

150,683

111,442

131,867

154,041154,564 153,177

129,499

151,265

123,780

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ave

rag

e N

om

inal

Pri

ce

Nebraska MLS


Housing Housing price index stable

FHFA Housing Price IndexNebraska vs U.S. Quarterly: 2000 - 2010 Second Quarter: 1980 = 100

254.7

339.4

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pri

ce In

dex

Nebraska U.S.A.


HousingYearly survey of Nebraska rental properties

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesCompleted Surveys: 2002 – 2010

818

958

456

641

1,089

1,463

1,613

1,304

1,681

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year


Housing Number of units captured each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesRental Units Survey: 2002 – 2010

81,153 82,251

91,557

97,97699,505

83,929

73,683

57,009

98,400

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year


Housing Units captured per completed survey

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesUnits Per Completed Survey

99.2

85.9

70.261.0

67.077.1

115.0125.0

59.2

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year


Housing Number of units captured each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesRental Units Survey: 2002 - 2010

496

577608

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

North South Urban


Housing Observed vacancy rates each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates: 2002 - 2010

6.9

5.0 5.0

6.7

5.86.16.1

6.66.6

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year


Housing Observed vacancy rates each year

Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates Data: 2005 - 2010

7.2%

6.2%

4.3%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

North South Urban


Housing Results from fall 2010 survey Statewide vacancy rate down

Srvys. Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 North 496 11,166 8.5 8.1 8.4 5.6 7.1 7.2 South 577 16,585 8.9 7.8 8.0 5.7 6.0 6.2 Urban 608 71,754 6.4 5.1 6.0 4.7 6.0 4.3 Nebraska 1,681 99,505 6.9 5.8 6.6 5.0 6.1 5.0

Nebraska Rental Vacancy SurveysVacancy Rates2010 Survey

Zone


Housing Single Family and Apartment Rents

Single Family vs. Apartment Rent by YearState of Nebraska 2006-2010

641

670

620

591

644

582

527

625

605612

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

675

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Ren

t ($

)

Single Family Units Apartments


HousingApartment Rents by Bedrooms

Apartment Rent by Bedroom by YearState of Nebraska 2006 - 2010

536 524 537 550520

642 659 667 655620

765 782 769 783739

693

787

653

853

783

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Do

llars

One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Four Bedroom


Summary of Findings

Population declining in rural areas Population growing in cities and east Nebraska unemployment very moderate Single-family production has stopped

falling, but MF fell nearly 64% between

2008 and 2009


Summary of Findings

Rental vacancy rates are dropping again Homeowner prices beginning recovery Housing production markets have

insufficient production Demand for rentals on the rise, including

market rate rentals, particularly in urban

areas of Nebraska

2011 NEBRASKA PROFILE Ninth Edition

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